March 10th-11th Surprise Storm?

[bud2380]

Models have been hinting at a weak disturbance this weekend for much of the week, but have been all over the place on placement and strength.  Last night's GFS returned the storm and this mornings NAM is now on board as well.  The 00z Euro started to move in this direction as well.  Let's see what we get the rest of today on the models.  The good news is most of the snow will fall at night, so that will increase our chances of accumulation.  

 

Here is the 12z 3k NAM.  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018030912/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[hlcater]

As long as this thing doesn't snow on Chicago we're good. I fly out of O'Hare for Seattle Sunday morning.

[bud2380]

Canadian is much weaker.  

[Hawkeye]

UK continues to shift northeast and a get bit stronger.

 

[Money]

DAB for eastern Iowa

[bud2380]

Euro still further south.  Misses most of Iowa.  Gotta love total model disagreement 36 hours out from an event.  It seems that has happened more times this year than I can recall in years past.  

[Hawkeye]

Euro still further south.  Misses most of Iowa.  Gotta love total model disagreement 36 hours out from an event.  It seems that has happened more times this year than I can recall in years past.  

 

It's a bit ne and a bit stronger vs last run, but not nearly enough.

 

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM with a pretty decent shift NE with the snow.

[Money]

18z NAM with a pretty decent shift NE with the snow.

Gonna reel in another one?

[bud2380]

3k NAM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018030918/060/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

regular NAM.  I did 10:1 ratio, but kuchera is coming in lower than 10:1 so these are a little high.  But it's more fun to look at. 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018030918/060/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna reel in another one?

Nah. Won’t see a flake here.

[bud2380]

DMX graphic

 

[Hawkeye]

DMX is talking this up, DVN is skeptical.  I think I'd go with the low end.  Each of the last two GFS runs has backed off a bit.  The 18z is weaker and doesn't even get snow into CR.

[bud2380]

18z GFS looks closer to the Euro with the heaviest snow in far SE Iowa but more into MO & IL.  

[bud2380]

i have a feeling the 00z runs will turn into duds for E Iowa.  It would be cool to see a few inches of snow, but i certainly am not going to lose any sleep over it if we don't.  

[james1976]

Yeah......maybe advisory criteria for a few counties. GFS backing off on the potential warning criteria.

[bud2380]

I wonder how fast DMX will pull down that graphic. Nam is totally different this run

[Hawkeye]

I wonder how fast DMX will pull down that graphic. Nam is totally different this run

 

Yep.  It's looking like this may have been a mirage.

[bud2380]

Gfs following suit. Turning into a non event for much of the area.

[james1976]

Yup....bring on spring. No reason for it to be cold now if we're not getting snow.

[bud2380]

4.5” reported in Centerville IA this morning. My aunt and uncle live near there. Snow just wasn’t moving on radar for quite awhile