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March 16th-17th Plains Storm System

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#1
Tom

Posted 13 March 2018 - 01:01 PM

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March continues to roar like a lion across the U.S. and now the action ticks up across the central Plains where they need it most.  It now appears rather likely that we will see a wintry component along with beneficial rains across portions of NE/IE/MO late this week into the weekend.

 

Here's the latest 18z NAM...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

Ice potential...

 

zr_acc.us_c.png

 

 

Total Precip...

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

Let's Discuss...


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#2
gabel23

Posted 13 March 2018 - 01:04 PM

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Wow, congrats to you all in Chy town on the surprise snow today! Speaking of that, Hastings just put out an interesting disco about this coming storm for us. They think several inches of heavy wet snow is possible for areas along and north of high way 92, which includes me! We shall see; one thing looks certain we will receive plenty of much needed precip! 

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

 

Wind: it will become windy N of the warm front Thu-Fri. E winds
will crank at 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40.

Temps: A drastic gradient will exist from N-S Thu-Fri and Fri has
trended much colder over S-cntrl Neb. Near normal Sat-Sun.
Currently our fcst is indicating near normal will cont into next
week...but am not buying it. Would expect Mon-Tue to trend cooler.

Precip: The last 2 runs of all models are outputting some good/
much-needed QPF over S-cntrl Neb Thu night-Fri with .50-1" and
there is good agreement from the 00Z EC ensemble mean. It`s
looking like a NW-SE axis with highest amts N of a line from LXN-
EAR-HSI-HJH. EC ensemble probs for at least .50" N of that line
are 60%.

Ptype: we will be dealing with precip type issues as colder air
advects into this system from the N. The advanced automated
algorithm we run for ptypes has put frzg rain in the fcst N of Hwy
92...but am very skeptical of models and algorithms indicating
frzg rain when temps are not sub-frzg before the rain begins. Am
more concerned that we could see svrl inches of heavy wet snow
N of Hwy 92 instead.

Suggest everyone cont to closely monitor fcsts as we hone in on
what will eventually occur. Both this sys and the next one slated
for Sun night into Mon could have a wintry component.

Thunder: we cont to see thunder potential over the SE 1/3 of the CWA
Thu night per K-index near 30 and Showalter Index -1. MUCAPE will
be 200-400 J/kg.


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#3
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 March 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Wow, congrats to you all in Chy town on the surprise snow today! Speaking of that, Hastings just put out an interesting disco about this coming storm for us. They think several inches of heavy wet snow is possible for areas along and north of high way 92, which includes me! We shall see; one thing looks certain we will receive plenty of much needed precip!


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018


Wind: it will become windy N of the warm front Thu-Fri. E winds
will crank at 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40.

Temps: A drastic gradient will exist from N-S Thu-Fri and Fri has
trended much colder over S-cntrl Neb. Near normal Sat-Sun.
Currently our fcst is indicating near normal will cont into next
week...but am not buying it. Would expect Mon-Tue to trend cooler.

Precip: The last 2 runs of all models are outputting some good/
much-needed QPF over S-cntrl Neb Thu night-Fri with .50-1" and
there is good agreement from the 00Z EC ensemble mean. It`s
looking like a NW-SE axis with highest amts N of a line from LXN-
EAR-HSI-HJH. EC ensemble probs for at least .50" N of that line
are 60%.

Ptype: we will be dealing with precip type issues as colder air
advects into this system from the N. The advanced automated
algorithm we run for ptypes has put frzg rain in the fcst N of Hwy
92...but am very skeptical of models and algorithms indicating
frzg rain when temps are not sub-frzg before the rain begins. Am
more concerned that we could see svrl inches of heavy wet snow
N of Hwy 92 instead.

Suggest everyone cont to closely monitor fcsts as we hone in on
what will eventually occur. Both this sys and the next one slated
for Sun night into Mon could have a wintry component.

Thunder: we cont to see thunder potential over the SE 1/3 of the CWA
Thu night per K-index near 30 and Showalter Index -1. MUCAPE will
be 200-400 J/kg.


Would sure be nice if this precipitation verifies. Have just seen so many misses with what looked like sure things this winter, that I will remain cautious in my optimism.

#4
Tom

Posted 13 March 2018 - 01:18 PM

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This system looks to have some wind as well.  Could be a fun snowstorm whoever gets lucky.



#5
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 March 2018 - 02:15 PM

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Wow, GFS seriously did a huge change in track lol. Literally went from near 30 for a high over Lincoln to near 60 Friday. That really doesn't agree with ensembles. The ensembles had a south shift earlier.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#6
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 March 2018 - 02:42 PM

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I couldn't care less what happens here, as long as it's moisture and gets us out of the D0 category. I'll be in Texas during this whole thing.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#7
snowstorm83

Posted 13 March 2018 - 04:45 PM

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Wow, GFS seriously did a huge change in track lol. Literally went from near 30 for a high over Lincoln to near 60 Friday. That really doesn't agree with ensembles. The ensembles had a south shift earlier.

 

18z GEFS took a big jog north. Yuck. Never was paying much attention to this one anyway. 



#8
bud2380

Posted 13 March 2018 - 06:46 PM

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Nam is showing a massive ice storm for parts of Iowa and Nebraska

#9
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 March 2018 - 06:52 PM

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NAM went north too. Barely has Omaha getting any frozen wintry precipitation lol. At least it has us getting 1.50" of precipitation.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#10
NH4NU

Posted 13 March 2018 - 06:54 PM

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NAM showing over 1.5" of ice for areas one county north of Omaha



#11
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 March 2018 - 07:11 PM

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NAM showing over 1.5" of ice for areas one county north of Omaha

Its gonna be a close one. If you look at the 500mb pattern its like a blip in the jet stream lol.


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#12
Tabitha

Posted 14 March 2018 - 01:58 AM

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Though I have measured just 32 inches of snow this winter and the ground has been bare since the beginning of March and there has been no measurable snow here since February 19th...that is about to change in a very big way the next 15 days....and it would not surprise me to see that 32" figure doubled by the end of March.
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#13
Tabitha

Posted 14 March 2018 - 02:08 AM

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Since I have been invoking Clemens....

"The warmest summer I ever spent was a winter in the Black Hills."

#14
Tabitha

Posted 14 March 2018 - 02:18 AM

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Though I have measured just 32 inches of snow this winter and the ground has been bare since the beginning of March and there has been no measurable snow here since February 19th...that is about to change in a very big way the next 15 days....and it would not surprise me to see that 32" figure doubled by the end of March.


Probably starting late Thursday or very early Friday.

#15
Tabitha

Posted 14 March 2018 - 03:38 AM

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It is an interesting thing; the number of co-operative stations that report missing data and so often missing snowfall after important snow events...not to mention the atrociously inaccurate measurements so often submitted to the NCDC for publication.

The distortion of the climate record and many times the outright falsification that is wrought by this practice is an abomination.

When a person goes to the animal shelter to adopt a kitten; the shelter wisely inquires of the prospective adopter if she and her family are enthusiastic animal lovers who will faithfully and lovingly care for the kitten.

Likewise, when a person applies to be a co-op observer, an inquiry should be made to determine if the prospective observer has a profound dedication to climate, weather and a fidelity to the truth...and that missing reports will only occur in the most extraordinary of circumstances...if the person must be away, that person should find somebody to take the readings and measurements for them.

The integrity of the climate record demands it; for the climate record is one of the forecaster's most reliable sources of guidance when issuing a forecast.

#16
Tabitha

Posted 14 March 2018 - 04:13 AM

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It is an interesting thing; the number of co-operative stations that report missing data and so often missing snowfall after important snow events...not to mention the atrociously inaccurate measurements so often submitted to the NCDC for publication.
The distortion of the climate record and many times the outright falsification that is wrought by this practice is an abomination.
When a person goes to the animal shelter to adopt a kitten; the shelter wisely inquires of the prospective adopter if she and her family are enthusiastic animal lovers who will faithfully and lovingly care for the kitten.
Likewise, when a person applies to be a co-op observer, an inquiry should be made to determine if the prospective observer has a profound dedication to climate, weather and a fidelity to the truth...and that missing reports will only occur in the most extraordinary of circumstances...if the person must be away, that person should find somebody to take the readings and measurements for them.
The integrity of the climate record demands it; for the climate record is one of the forecaster's most reliable sources of guidance when issuing a forecast.



There are, in fact, three very definite reasons why snowfall will be falsely under reported:

1/ So as not to embarrass forecasters who grossly under forecast the amount of snow with a particular storm.

2/ So as to convince the public that snow averages are sharply declining due to global warming.

3/ So as to allow the leaders of municipalities to reduce their budgets allotted for snow removal by convincing local legislatures that it does not actually snow much in the jurisdiction that they oversee.

#17
Tabitha

Posted 14 March 2018 - 05:23 AM

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Though I have measured just 32 inches of snow this winter and the ground has been bare since the beginning of March and there has been no measurable snow here since February 19th...that is about to change in a very big way the next 15 days....and it would not surprise me to see that 32" figure doubled by the end of March.


The European control run had 2.5" liquid equivalent here the next 15 days; almost all of it with a sub-freezing column.

So the odds of not getting some fairly good snows are pretty long.
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#18
Tom

Posted 14 March 2018 - 06:54 AM

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12z NAM...a lot of juice...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png



#19
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:07 AM

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12z NAM...a lot of juice...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

There's that dry punch from the southwest.  Looks like that may be the source region for heat and dryness that expands.  I know it is dry here, but more so in parts of central and western Kansas. Our town is building a new baseball/softball complex.  They have had to hook into the town's water supply(hydrants), and run water hoses and pipes, to water down the soil as it is too dry for the land leveling company to start land preparation (leveling) work, heard this from a city councilman that I am a friend of.   The man who runs the land leveling company said in all there years of working, have never had to do this in March or April for any project.  



#20
bud2380

Posted 14 March 2018 - 01:57 PM

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The Black Hills looks to do well.  Winter Storm Watches posted for parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska.

 

Tab2FileL.png?14e0d0cd53b0a7f812f192a58e


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#21
Tom

Posted 15 March 2018 - 04:37 AM

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Some minimal Ice/Snow potential across IA with this system...not much to write home about I guess...good night to turn on Netflix and call it a movie night..

 

Tab2FileL.png?8ba5e2182bd5603561a86dd4bb


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#22
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 March 2018 - 06:37 PM

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0z NAM shifted south and put Omaha back in the Ice Zone

 

zr_acc.us_c.png

 

Snow

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#23
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 March 2018 - 07:21 AM

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43 degrees with ENE winds gusting to 25 MPH and sitting under the dry slot.  Hope we get some rain with the wraparound precip.  



#24
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 March 2018 - 10:28 AM

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Looks like the Low has just passed to the east of my county in Central Nebraska and the wraparound is coming from east to west.  



#25
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 March 2018 - 02:09 PM

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Wow! Just had a line of storms move through with heavy rain and hail!


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#26
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 March 2018 - 02:56 PM

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Nice looking high-precip supercell Northeast of Springfield, MO. Wouldn't be surprised to see a weak tornado outta that.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#27
james1976

Posted 16 March 2018 - 04:07 PM

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Snowing hard here. Half inch so far. 34 degrees. Kind of a surprise

#28
Tabitha

Posted 16 March 2018 - 04:29 PM

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Though I have measured just 32 inches of snow this winter and the ground has been bare since the beginning of March and there has been no measurable snow here since February 19th...that is about to change in a very big way the next 15 days....and it would not surprise me to see that 32" figure doubled by the end of March.


Picked up 10.0" of new snow today.

42.0" on the season.

The NWS WFO in Rapid City had a storm total of 10.5".
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#29
Tom

Posted 16 March 2018 - 04:46 PM

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Picked up 10.0" of new snow today.

42.0" on the season.

The NWS WFO in Rapid City had a storm total of 10.5".

Congrats!  Snap some pics manana...



#30
Hawkeye

Posted 16 March 2018 - 07:02 PM

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We obviously got some sleet and snow from the main band that moved through while I was downstairs watching tv.  I picked up at least 0.2".  I don't know if any melted during the hour between the end and when I measured.

 

Models this evening have shifted the overnight second wave a bit farther north and I may get more decent sleet/snow.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#31
Tabitha

Posted 18 March 2018 - 07:30 AM

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Congrats!  Snap some pics manana...

Attached Files


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#32
Tabitha

Posted 18 March 2018 - 07:36 AM

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Picked up 10.0" of new snow today.

42.0" on the season.

The NWS WFO in Rapid City had a storm total of 10.5".

Attached Files


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