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From Philadelphia to Seattle - Cheer me up.

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#51
snow_wizard

Posted 22 March 2018 - 10:15 PM

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I am moving back to the Seattle area as soon as this fall. It seems that when I moved to Philly in 2015, I was coming in during what would be three warm or dry winters in a row, missing out on any significant "Northeast Winters".

 

So what are some things about living between Portland and Vancouver, BC, that you look forward to in the weather?

 

Windstorms?

Extreme rain events?

Ice?

 

In all seriousness you are probably picking a very good year to come back.

 

1. The last winter before we reach solar minimum.

2. El Nino very unlikely

3. Precedent for blocking between 140 and 160 is well established the past two winters as well as currently

4. 8 - 9 winter (as weird as it sounds)

5. Propensity for north based GOA ridging and surface highs is currently in place.

 

Excellent potential we will have chances for good stuff this winter as we have the past couple of winters.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 27

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#52
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 12:27 AM

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Both Seattle and Philly are pathetic in my book.

I’ll still take Seattle better access to close by snow.


Seattle has tropical winters compared to Philly. The numbers stand out like a sore thumb.

To argue otherwise is nothing short of cognitive dissonance.
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#53
Jesse

Posted 23 March 2018 - 12:33 AM

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Seattle has tropical winters compared to Philly. The numbers stand out like a sore thumb.

To argue otherwise is nothing short of cognitive dissonance.


Tim?
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#54
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 12:40 AM

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Tim?


Ha. I just care about science. Facts. Numbers. In this case, said numbers are so different it’s like comparing Philly to Minneapolis, and then arguing they’re “similar”.

Lol. They’re not similar. Philly winters are tropical compared to Minneapolis winters, and Seattle winters are tropical compared to Philly winters.

Philly vs Seattle...avg snow of 23” vs 5”, coldest average lows of 24*F vs 38*F. Seattle has never observed a subzero low, let alone a subzero high. This is supposed to be a science-based forum, right? ;)
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#55
Scott

Posted 23 March 2018 - 04:03 PM

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Seattle has tropical winters compared to Philly.

 

 

I don't know.  Seattle winters are miserable (I am from Everett), not for temperatures, but for lack of sun and for months of drizzle.

 

We get in the -40's (or sometimes in the -50's or even -60's) around here, but I still think Seattle winters are more miserable.  At least we get to see blue skies and sunshine while we're freezing our ***es off.

 

The only area I can think of in the Lower 48 that has less pleasant winters than the Seattle region is the area around Sault Ste Marie.  They get the lack of sunshine as well, but also (unlike Seattle) cold temperatures.

 

Anyway, I wouldn't see why lack of snow in Seattle would be that big of problem. If you want to see snow you can just drive to the mountains.   Rainier Paradise has an average snow depth of 84" in June.

https://wrcc.dri.edu...iMAIN.pl?wa6898

 

Attached File  par.JPG   67.19KB   0 downloads

 

If we only want to use 1981-2010 averages for comparing snowfall, Rainier Paradise averaged 670.9 inches (~56 feet!) per year during that time period.    

 


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#56
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 04:56 PM

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I don't know. Seattle winters are miserable (I am from Everett), not for temperatures, but for lack of sun and for months of drizzle.

We get in the -40's (or sometimes in the -50's or even -60's) around here, but I still think Seattle winters are more miserable. At least we get to see blue skies and sunshine while we're freezing our ***es off.


Which is precisely why Seattle’s winters are “tropical” relative to Philly’s winters, and why Philly’s winters are “tropical” compared to Minneapolis’s winters. They’re warmer, wetter, more humid, and less snowy. The complete package.

I know the word “tropical” is a bit hyperbolic, but it’s comparatively applicable. I’m not trolling or trying to start a weather-war here. Rather I’m simply trying to pound home what should be obvious, given the nature of the earlier discussions in this thread.

Anyway, I wouldn't see why lack of snow in Seattle would be that big of problem. If you want to see snow you can just drive to the mountains. Rainier Paradise has an average snow depth of 84" in June

If we only want to use 1981-2010 averages for comparing snowfall, Rainier Paradise averaged 670.9 inches (~56 feet!) per year during that time period.


That is pretty freaking awesome. I don’t think Fred is moving to Mount Rainier, but it would be a great topic for another thread. :)
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#57
Scott

Posted 23 March 2018 - 05:41 PM

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I don’t think Fred is moving to Mount Rainier,

 

 

No, but he's moving within sight of it.  At least when it isn't cloudy!

 

VSVE7.jpg

 

I know the word “tropical” is a bit hyperbolic, but it’s comparatively applicable.

 

 

Most tropical areas have heavy rainfall, but also abundant sunshine since the rain falls in heavy downpours between intense periods of sunshine.  In this respect, Philly is closer to "tropical" than Seattle.  Other than perhaps Monte Roraima, I don't think I have every been to a tropical area that constantly drizzles, without that much sunshine, like it does in Seattle.  Monte Roraima might come the closest as it is somewhat similar in temperature to Seattle in the winter and it drizzles a lot, but that is the only place I can think of (51 countries visited, many in the tropics).  Countries I have visited are marked in red:

 

Attached File  conv.JPG   38.17KB   0 downloads


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#58
HighlandExperience

Posted 23 March 2018 - 06:32 PM

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Seattle has tropical winters compared to Philly. The numbers stand out like a sore thumb.

To argue otherwise is nothing short of cognitive dissonance.


Now you are making stuff up. I never said Seattle had amazing winters. I said squabbling over 15 additional inches of snow is pathetic. Seattle doesn’t feel downright tropical in winter compared to philly.

I grew up in the upper Midwest btw.

#59
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 06:33 PM

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No, but he's moving within sight of it. At least when it isn't cloudy!

VSVE7.jpg


Most tropical areas have heavy rainfall, but also abundant sunshine since the rain falls in heavy downpours between intense periods of sunshine. In this respect, Philly is closer to "tropical" than Seattle. Other than perhaps Monte Roraima, I don't think I have every been to a tropical area that constantly drizzles, without that much sunshine, like it does in Seattle. Monte Roraima might come the closest as it is somewhat similar in temperature to Seattle in the winter and it drizzles a lot, but that is the only place I can think of (51 countries visited, many in the tropics). Countries I have visited are marked in red:

conv.JPG


I never said Seattle was tropical. That would be ridiculous. I used a rough analogy to highlight th silliness in comparing them, hence my description of Seattle’s winters as “tropical” compared to Philly’s. lt happens to be scientifically fitting, because Seattle’s winters are warmer, wetter, more humid, and less snowy than Philly’s. That is simply an undeniable reality.

That said, of course they swap places during the warm season, and Philly is probably more “tropical” than Seattle through a majority of the solar year (roughly April through November, approximately).
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#60
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 06:49 PM

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Now you are making stuff up. I never said Seattle had amazing winters. I said squabbling over 15 additional inches of snow is pathetic. Seattle doesn’t feel downright tropical in winter compared to philly.

I grew up in the upper Midwest btw.


Except I never claimed you said that. What I’m saying is that Seattle’s winters are simply not comparable to Philly’s winters. At all. My “tropical” analogy is a response to those attempting the imply otherwise.

Seattle’s winters are more comparable to winters in Raleigh, NC. Based on the averages. They’re still very different climates, though.
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#61
Scott

Posted 23 March 2018 - 06:49 PM

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lt happens to be scientifically fitting, because Seattle’s winters are warmer, wetter, more humid, and less snowy than Philly’s. That is simply an undeniable reality.

 

 

Seattle's winters may be warmer, wetter, more humid, and less snowy than Philly's, but winter rainfall patterns in Philly are far more tropical than Seattle's.   To me, it seems silly to refer to Seattle as more tropical.   "More tropical" just isn't a good comparison.  Perhaps a better description is that Philly's are more arctic like, but this is perhaps the silliest argument that I have seen on this website. ;)   

 

I think we all get your point though. Seattle winters are warmer, wetter, and less snowy than those in Philly.  I'd also add more cloudy and drizzly as well.  


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#62
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 06:59 PM

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Seattle's winters may be warmer, wetter, more humid, and less snowy than Philly's, but winter rainfall patterns in Philly are far more tropical than Seattle's. To me, it seems silly to refer to Seattle as more tropical. More tropical just isn't a good comparison. Perhaps a better description is that Philly's are more arctic like, but this is perhaps the silliest argument that I have seen on this website. ;)


Lol. It was an analogy, my friend. Nothing textbook.

If we’re getting technical, though, there’s really no such thing as a “tropical rainfall pattern”. There are a slew of tropical climate types..tropical-wet, tropical-monsoon, tropical-dry, tropical wet/dry, etc.
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#63
Scott

Posted 23 March 2018 - 07:25 PM

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 If we’re getting technical, though, there’s really no such thing as a “tropical rainfall pattern”. There are a slew of tropical climate types..tropical-wet, tropical-monsoon, tropical-dry, tropical wet/dry, etc. 

 

 

Yes.  Tropical deserts are some of the driest on earth.

 

Regardless of precipitation, in the tropics, winter is the dry (or at least drier) season (due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, very interesting) almost everywhere (of course exactly on the equator there isn't a winter/summer).  There are a very few exceptions (parts of Hawaii and coastal Peru), but that's a whole different topic.  


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#64
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 08:10 PM

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Yes. Tropical deserts are some of the driest on earth.

Regardless of precipitation, in the tropics, winter is the dry (or at least drier) season (due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, very interesting) almost everywhere (of course exactly on the equator there isn't a winter/summer). There are a very few exceptions (parts of Hawaii and coastal Peru), but that's a whole different topic.


A very large portion of the tropics from 15N to 15S don’t have a “winter” that counts for anything, but a distinct wet/dry season is a tropical quality..and Seattle does have a distinct wet/dry season. ;)

FWIW, the latitudinal seasonality of the ITCZ is quite variable over multidecadal periods and longer (right now it’s NH biased from Aug-Apr, and biased to the SH from May-July, relative to the late-Holocene average).
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#65
BLI snowman

Posted 23 March 2018 - 08:15 PM

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Ha. I just care about science. Facts. Numbers. In this case, said numbers are so different it’s like comparing Philly to Minneapolis, and then arguing they’re “similar”.

Lol. They’re not similar. Philly winters are tropical compared to Minneapolis winters, and Seattle winters are tropical compared to Philly winters.

Philly vs Seattle...avg snow of 23” vs 5”, coldest average lows of 24*F vs 38*F. Seattle has never observed a subzero low, let alone a subzero high. This is supposed to be a science-based forum, right? ;)

 

Pretty sure Philly has never seen a subzero high, either   ;)



#66
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 09:43 PM

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Pretty sure Philly has never seen a subzero high, either ;)


I’m pretty sure they did, as recently as Jan 1994. But I’ll check just in case I’ve confused it with another station.
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#67
BLI snowman

Posted 23 March 2018 - 10:11 PM

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I’m pretty sure they did, as recently as Jan 1994. But I’ll check just in case I’ve confused it with another station.

 

Nah, their lowest max on record back to the 1870s is 6 (in 1994). 

 

Portland's lowest max on record is 9 and Bellingham's is 4. 

 

The Western lowlands really aren't that different from that area in terms of absolute extremes and capabilities. Just occur around here with not anywhere near the frequency, especially in recent decades.


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#68
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:01 PM

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Nah, their lowest max on record back to the 1870s is 6 (in 1994).

Portland's lowest max on record is 9 and Bellingham's is 4.

The Western lowlands really aren't that different from that area in terms of absolute extremes and capabilities. Just occur around here with not anywhere near the frequency, especially in recent decades.


I highly doubt the lowlands there get as cold as Philly or here in winter. Philly’s record low is -11, DC’s is -15, and IAD’s is -18, the latter of which would have easily been below -20 had it existed in 1899.

Also, I doubt even the most extreme PNW month could hold a candle to the coldest months here. Even very recently, this is IAD in February 2015. Highs were in the low/mid teens into mid/late February.

eT7nkjF.jpg
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#69
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:11 PM

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Another statistic. Since 1960, IAD has observed 62 lows below zero, as recently as Jan 2018, and as late in the season as Mar 2014.

Meanwhile, over that timeframe, neither PDX or SEA have observed a single subzero low.
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#70
BLI snowman

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:14 PM

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I highly doubt the lowlands there get as cold as Philly or here in winter. Philly’s record low is -11, DC’s is -15, and IAD’s is -18, the latter of which would have easily been below -20 had it existed in 1899.

Also, I doubt even the most extreme PNW month could hold a candle to the coldest months here.

This is Dulles in February 2015. Very recent
 

 

The all time record coldest minimums in the lowlands back to the 1850s are in the -15 to -20 range.

 

And you are aware of what some of our most extreme winter stretches were like, aren't you? January 1969, January 1950, January 1937, January 1930, January 1916... they all compare quite well to your more extreme stretches. Might want to check some of our local data with those.



#71
ShawniganLake

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:31 PM

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I highly doubt the lowlands there get as cold as Philly or here in winter. Philly’s record low is -11, DC’s is -15, and IAD’s is -18, the latter of which would have easily been below -20 had it existed in 1899.

Also, I doubt even the most extreme PNW month could hold a candle to the coldest months here. Even very recently, this is IAD in February 2015. Highs were in the low/mid teens into mid/late February.

eT7nkjF.jpg

January 1950 came in at 22.5F for Shawnigan Lake. And 16.5F for Abbotsford. Makes the chart above look fairly mild.

I should mention we had 65” of snow that month too

#72
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:35 PM

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The all time record coldest minimums in the lowlands back to the 1850s are in the -15 to -20 range.

And you are aware of what some of our most extreme winter stretches were like, aren't you? January 1969, January 1950, January 1937, January 1930, January 1916... they all compare quite well to your more extreme stretches. Might want to check some of our local data with those.


Which stations are in the -15 to -20 range? Were these actually lowland city centers? IAD is very urbanized and they still managed to pull off -18*F in 1984, and they have dropped below zero 62 times since 1960, while neither SEA or PDX has done it once over that span. So I’m baffled as to how there’s any comparison being made with regards to temperatures.

Snowfall is more debatable, thanks to the moisture source you guys have. Yes, I’m aware of many of your greatest winter weather periods such as storm King in 1880, January 1950, so on. Yes, they are comparable. But they don’t occur nearly as frequently as they do here. There have been six storms dumping 20”+ at sea level here just over the last 20 years.
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#73
ShawniganLake

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:37 PM

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Which stations are in the -15 to -20 range? Were these actually lowland city centers? IAD is very urbanized and they still managed to pull off -18*F in 1984, and they have dropped below zero 62 times since 1960, while neither SEA or PDX has done it once over that span. So I’m baffled as to how there’s any comparison being made with regards to temperatures.

Snowfall is more debatable, thanks to the moisture source you guys have. Yes, I’m aware of many of your greatest winter weather periods such as storm King in 1880, January 1950, so on. Yes, they are comparable. But they don’t occur nearly as frequently as they do here. There have been six storms dumping 20”+ at sea level here just over the last 20 years.

Yes. Basically our winters have gone to s**t. Fix it please.
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#74
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:37 PM

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Love seeing Phil’s true homer colors come out on this stuff. Fun. :)

#75
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:41 PM

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January 1950 came in at 22.5F for Shawnigan Lake. And 16.5F for Abbotsford. Makes the chart above look fairly mild.

I should mention we had 65” of snow that month too


Well, January is colder February. I haven’t actually looked at every month.

Just randomly pulling up January 1977 at IAD, for example, it averaged 20.9*F. Their period of record only goes back to 1964, unfortunately.

CN1L10P.jpg
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#76
BLI snowman

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:45 PM

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Which stations are in the -15 to -20 range? Were these actually lowland city centers? IAD is very urbanized and they still managed to pull off -18*F in 1984, and they have dropped below zero 62 times since 1960, while neither SEA or PDX has done it once over that span. So I’m baffled as to how there’s any comparison being made with regards to temperatures.

Snowfall is more debatable, thanks to the moisture source you guys have. Yes, I’m aware of many of your greatest winter weather periods such as storm King in 1880, January 1950, so on. Yes, they are comparable. But they don’t occur nearly as frequently as they do here. There have been six storms dumping 20”+ at sea level here just over the last 20 years.

 

These were readings taken in cities, yes. Eugene hit -15 in 1868, Longview hit -20 in 1930, Forest Grove hit -18 in 1950, McMinnville hit -24 in 1919 (questionable, I'm also aware of a -17 reading from the Vancouver Barracks in that one).

 

So no, these weren't taken in major city downtowns but yes, there is a fair amount of corroborative evidence to show that suburban and moderately urban locales in our region have been capable of -15 to -20 readings in the past, just like the Mid Atlantic. 

 

Not debating medians, averages, or return rates here, simply looking at the most extreme events on record in each respective region. Again, they are fairly comparable and not really far apart at all if we're looking at it in terms of individual events or months.



#77
BLI snowman

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:50 PM

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Well, January is colder February. I haven’t actually looked at every month.

Just randomly pulling up January 1977 at IAD, for example, it averaged 20.9*F. Their period of record only goes back to 1964, unfortunately.

CN1L10P.jpg

 

Nice. That is IAD's coldest month on record.

 

Obviously a bit further back, but January 1862 was very similar here temperature wise, only with 45" of snowfall and 6-24" on the ground the entire month. Our climate used to not **** around when it wanted to play ball   ;)


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#78
Phil

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:50 PM

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Love seeing Phil’s true homer colors come out on this stuff. Fun. :)


If someone was arguing that DC winters were somehow comparable to Denver winters, I’d be the first one to call out that bulls**t.

I just go by what the numbers tell me. I’m not going to kiss a** and deny reality if it means I’m shirking scientific objectivity. Sorry man.
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#79
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 12:13 AM

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These were readings taken in cities, yes. Eugene hit -15 in 1868, Longview hit -20 in 1930, Forest Grove hit -18 in 1950, McMinnville hit -24 in 1919 (questionable, I'm also aware of a -17 reading from the Vancouver Barracks in that one).

So no, these weren't taken in major city downtowns but yes, there is a fair amount of corroborative evidence to show that suburban and moderately urban locales in our region have been capable of -15 to -20 readings in the past, just like the Mid Atlantic.

Not debating medians, averages, or return rates here, simply looking at the most extreme events on record in each respective region. Again, they are fairly comparable and not really far apart at all if we're looking at it in terms of individual events or months.


Fair, but if we’re including suburbs, I can refer to readings such as the -26*F in Frostburg in Jan 1985, and a few others that I forget but can dig up.

Unfortunately most of the suburban areas here don’t have publicly available records for the LIA years. But knowing this area, I’m certain some places radiated to -30*F or colder in 1899 under that deep snowcover. Downtown DC hitting -15*F is absurd even for back then.
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#80
BLI snowman

Posted 24 March 2018 - 12:20 AM

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Fair, but if we’re including suburbs, I can refer to readings such as the -26*F in Frostburg in Jan 1985, and a few others that I forget but can dig up.

Unfortunately most of the suburban areas here don’t have publicly available records for the LIA years. But knowing this area, I’m certain some places radiated to -30*F or colder in 1899 under that deep snowcover. Downtown DC hitting -15*F is absurd even for back then.

 

Frostburg, MD? That looks to be getting into a different climate zone from you, though. Pretty akin to what Hood River, OR would be for us. Hood River has an all time record of -27 and has seen 60"+ snowstorms before. Not a great representation of what the western lowlands are capable of, though.

 

I'm sure some of those 1800s cold snaps produced -20s in your general area, though. Your climate has also suffered a noticeable recent decline, albeit with some more recent truly historic stuff than we've seen.



#81
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 12:29 AM

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Nice. That is IAD's coldest month on record.

Obviously a bit further back, but January 1862 was very similar here temperature wise, only with 45" of snowfall and 6-24" on the ground the entire month. Our climate used to not **** around when it wanted to play ball ;)


To be fair here, IAD’s period of record only goes back to 1964, which is a very short period of record. So I’m sure there’d be colder months had it existed during the waning stages of the LIA.

Speaking of the LIA, our region started warming out of it well before you guys did. The exceptionally deep -NAO of the 1600-1700 period had terminated by the 1770s, but the NPAC and western North America remained in its LIA circulation unit the late 19th century, when the asymmetric EPAC Hadley Cell expansion began.
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#82
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 12:46 AM

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Frostburg, MD? That looks to be getting into a different climate zone from you, though. Pretty akin to what Hood River, OR would be for us. Hood River has an all time record of -27 and has seen 60"+ snowstorms before. Not a great representation of what the western lowlands are capable of, though.


If you want something closer in, Purcellville also dropped down to -24*F in 1984, and Damascus had a -1*F high in 1985. However, those were both exceptional cold snaps even by LIA standards, so I’m not sure how much colder we could have gotten.

Then again, they were also snowless, so if there’d been snowcover, we would have definitely been colder.

I'm sure some of those 1800s cold snaps produced -20s in your general area, though. Your climate has also suffered a noticeable recent decline, albeit with some more recent truly historic stuff than we've seen.


What sort of decline are you referring to? I guess this area has always been very feast/famine with snowfall, hence the higher mean/lower median. This tendency is evident at all climate recording stations.

EVtPCQV.gif
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#83
Scott

Posted 24 March 2018 - 05:06 AM

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A very large portion of the tropics from 15N to 15S don’t have a “winter” that counts for anything, but a distinct wet/dry season is a tropical quality..and Seattle does have a distinct wet/dry season.

 

 

Yes, but they are opposite to each other.  In the tropics "winter" tends to be very dry (even in wet regions).  Here are the graphs for Costa Rica, for example:

 

san-jose-climate-graph.gif

 

In the topics north of the equator, the wet season is the exact opposite of the Pacific Northwest or Coastal California.

 


I highly doubt the lowlands there get as cold as Philly or here in winter.

 

 

I'd have to agree with you there.  Even Tallahassee Florida has gotten colder than Seattle.   

The lowlands along or near the coastal Pacific Northwest have had some impressive early season cold spells though, even on the coast.  Even Olympia on the coast has dropped down to 25 in September, 14 in October, and -1 in November. That's pretty impressive for a sea level location.   Even Seattle has dropped to 6 in November and several of the surrounding areas have dropped to zero or below (especially in 1896, 1955, and 1985).  

 

Even so, in winter I'd have to agree with you.   When comparing similar latitude coastal areas in Lower 48, the Atlantic Coast has colder winter temperatures than the Pacific Coast.   The reason of course is because the mountain ranges in the West block the coldest air coming from the interior of northern North America.  


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#84
Jesse

Posted 24 March 2018 - 06:23 AM

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If someone was arguing that DC winters were somehow comparable to Denver winters, I’d be the first one to call out that bulls**t.

I just go by what the numbers tell me. I’m not going to kiss a** and deny reality if it means I’m shirking scientific objectivity. Sorry man.


:lol:
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#85
BLI snowman

Posted 24 March 2018 - 08:04 AM

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If you want something closer in, Purcellville also dropped down to -24*F in 1984, and Damascus had a -1*F high in 1985. However, those were both exceptional cold snaps even by LIA standards, so I’m not sure how much colder we could have gotten.

Then again, they were also snowless, so if there’d been snowcover, we would have definitely been colder.


What sort of decline are you referring to? I guess this area has always been very feast/famine with snowfall, hence the higher mean/lower median. This tendency is evident at all climate recording stations.
 

 

Check your climate pre-1930's  ;)

 

Clearly your area as colder and snowier.



#86
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 09:50 AM

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Check your climate pre-1930's ;)

Clearly your area as colder and snowier.


Ah, okay. When when you said “recent” I was thinking something along the lines of the last few decades, which really haven’t been any more/less crappy than the rest of the post-LIA era.

There was a ugly regime change here in the 1920s that reverberates still today. Sort of a “step change” downward in snowfall averages, coinciding with the big flip to +NAO/poleward Atlantic ITCZ that marked the official termination of the LIA. It happened in the blink of an eye just before the dustbowl.
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#87
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 10:34 AM

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Yes, but they are opposite to each other. In the tropics "winter" tends to be very dry (even in wet regions). Here are the graphs for Costa Rica, for example.


But that depends on the specific region.

Have you heard of the Asian winter monsoon? The EPAC/ATL ITCZ holds a very different seasonality compared than the WPAC/IO ITCZ, thanks to the effects of the Asian monsoonal cycles, which are poorly constrained to the seasonality of the more stable South American monsoons (really just ‘roided up ITCZ influence).

In some Indonesian countries, the “rainy season” is in fact the winter season.


The lowlands along or near the coastal Pacific Northwest have had some impressive early season cold spells though, even on the coast. Even Olympia on the coast has dropped down to 25 in September, 14 in October, and -1 in November. That's pretty impressive for a sea level location. Even Seattle has dropped to 6 in November and several of the surrounding areas have dropped to zero or below (especially in 1896, 1955, and 1985).


Yeah, there’s no doubt that you guys are much better at early season cold/snow than we are. Once again, the numbers don’t lie. ;)

Our summer pattern lasts super long, at least through the autumnal equinox. Not unusual to have Gulf Stream SSTs still roasting around 85*F in mid-September. Our autumn is quite long and lasts into the middle of December. Only after the winter solstice do we start to build real cold in here.

Even so, in winter I'd have to agree with you. When comparing similar latitude coastal areas in Lower 48, the Atlantic Coast has colder winter temperatures than the Pacific Coast. The reason of course is because the mountain ranges in the West block the coldest air coming from the interior of northern North America.


I’d argue that it’s actually a combination of those western mountain ranges producing downstream troughing via the conservation of angular momentum, and their mechanical blockage of mild Pacific air.

Without the western mountain ranges, we probably wouldn’t have ice ages.
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#88
Scott

Posted 24 March 2018 - 11:35 AM

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But that depends on the specific region.

Have you heard of the Asian winter monsoon?

 

 

Of course, but it isn't usual.  There are a few exceptions around.  I already mentioned most of Hawaii and coastal Peru, but there are a few other scattered locations around the globe where in the tropics the winter isn't the dry season.   I can think of a few more.  Places in Sri Lanka have two monsoons, one in winter and one in summer in some locations, where some places only have a winter monsoon or a summer monsoon.   East Africa has two rainy seasons close to the equator.  Even parts of the Amazon have two rainy seasons.   Ecuador does too, but it varies from east to west rather than from north to south.   Closer to home, in some parts of the Caribbean such as Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire, fall and winter is the wet season.    Even parts of Puerto Rico have a winter wet season.

 

Such areas are just exceptions though.  Besides a few exceptions, the winter is the dry season in the vast majority of the tropics.   

 

In some Indonesian countries, the “rainy season” is in fact the winter season. 

 

I assume you mean "some Indonesian islands"  or "some Southeast Asian countries" since Indonesia itself is a country?  Yes, some parts of Indonesia are another exception (of note Sumatra has some really weird rainfall patterns in different regions).  Besides parts of Indonesia, in that region of the world, Singapore is also technically north of the equator, but has a summer monsoon, though it's so close to the equator that it may as well be.   Papua New Guinea also has places with a summer monsoon.

 

Such places are exceptions though. 

 

Yeah, there’s no doubt that you guys are much better at early season cold/snow than we are. Once again, the numbers don’t lie.  ;)

 

 

I actually don't live on either coast, but in the Rocky Mountains far from any ocean.  We actually "are much better at every season cold" than either Lower 48 coast.  In the US, you would have to go to Alaska to see any coastal temperatures as cold as we get.  When it comes to all time extremes, rather than just averages, our extreme lows compare well with those of Alaska along the Arctic Ocean.   The coldest coastal official temperature in Alaska was -62  at Prudhoe Bay on 1/27/1989.   In this immediate area, our coldest official temperature was -61 at Maybell on 2/1/1985.  Of course places along the Arctic Ocean average colder. 

 

Back to the original topic though, are we cheering iFred up?   I would assume that he's either rolling his eyes, laughing at all of us, or preferably laughing along with us.


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#89
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 12:04 PM

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Of course, but it isn't usual. There are a few exceptions around. I already mentioned most of Hawaii and coastal Peru, but there are a few other scattered locations around the globe where in the tropics the winter isn't the dry season. Places in Sri Lanka have two monsoons, one in winter and one in summer in some locations, where some places only have a winter monsoon or a summer monsoon. East Africa has two rainy seasons close to the equator. Even parts of the Amazon have two rainy seasons. Ecuador does too, but it varies from east to west rather than from north to south. Closer to home, in some parts of the Caribbean such as Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire, fall and winter is the wet season. Even parts of Puerto Rico have a winter wet season.

Such areas are just exceptions though. Besides a few exceptions, the winter is the dry season in the vast majority of the tropics.


I think you might be confusing the tropics with the subtropics. The majority of the tropics don’t have an astronomical winter.

The rainfall pattern you’re referencing is only typical of a tropical-monsoon climate. These regions do make up roughly 65% of the officially designated climate zones and typically sit near the tropical/subtropical boundary areas, somewhat removed from the equator. But ~ 25% of said tropical-monsoon climates experience the rainy season in the winter.


I assume you mean "some Indonesian islands" or "some Southeast Asian countries" since Indonesia itself is a country? Yes, some parts of Indonesia are another exception (of note Sumatra has some really weird rainfall patterns in different regions). Besides parts of Indonesia, in that region of the world, Singapore is also technically north of the equator, but has a summer monsoon, though it's so close to the equator that it may as well be. Papua New Guinea also has places with a summer monsoon.

Such places are exceptions though.


Except they’re not really exceptions. The Asian winter monsoon is a large scale phenomenon, and these areas represent an officially designated expression of tropical climate. These climates also make up roughly 25% of all tropical-monsoon climates.


I actually don't live on either coast, but in the Rocky Mountains far from any ocean. We actually "are much better at every season cold" than either Lower 48 coast. In the US, you would have to go to Alaska to see any coastal temperatures as cold as we get. When it comes to all time extremes, rather than just averages, our extreme lows compare well with those of Alaska along the Arctic Ocean. The coldest coastal official temperature in Alaska was -62 at Prudhoe Bay on 1/27/1989. In this immediate area, our coldest official temperature was -61 at Maybell on 2/1/1985. Of course places along the Arctic Ocean average colder. Back to the original topic though, are we cheering iFred up?


That area is near the top of my “want to move to” list. The lack of oppressive heat and humidity in tandem with a very dynamic climate and 4 defined seasons is a rare find. I’d miss the severe weather and hurricane threats, but it would be a roughly equal trade-off with the low dewpoints and cool nights.

As for Fred..if he’s a legit snow weenie, my heart aches for his sorry a** ( ;) ). Come summer, though, the tables turn and I’ll probably be the miserable one.
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#90
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 24 March 2018 - 12:48 PM

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I ll mention Eugene the 2nd largest city in Oregon and in a western lowland location hit -10 less than 5 years ago.
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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#91
Scott

Posted 24 March 2018 - 01:11 PM

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I think you might be confusing the tropics with the subtropics. The majority of the tropics don’t have an astronomical winter.

 

 

For simplicity, I'm simply referring to areas in each hemisphere as having opposite seasons.  

It ins't that useful to try to think of winter and summer in the tropics as it pertains to areas such as we live in.  I'm sure that you understand what I was referring to.

 

In fact, in Central America December through April is considered locally to be "summer" even though it is north of the equator (due to it being much sunnier).  In Peru, the season called "summer" is May through September in the Highlands and December through March along the coast, even though all of Peru is south of the equator.  It would seem silly to try and argue about the actual definition of winter, so for simplicity it seems best to just use the seasons in each hemispheres in our discussions.  

 

In the tropics, wet and dry seasons are much easier to define.  

 

​But ~ 25% of said tropical-monsoon climates experience the rainy season in the winter.

Source?  I'm not saying that this is incorrect because I have never seen a percentage, but it certainly seems a lot less than 25% to me.   

 

The main reason I know many of the wet and dry seasons around the world is because I do a lot of mountaineering (and trekking) around the world (and of course I am interested in weather).   For mountaineers, knowing the wet and dry seasons is very important.  Between the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn, with only rare exceptions, experienced mountaineers know to go to the mountains in whatever hemisphere winter happens to be.  For example, you want to climb in Bolivia or the Blanca in Peru between May and September and Panama or the Guiana Highlands in December through April.  In tropical Africa you want to go to Ethiopia or Cameroon in December through April and Malawi June through March.  East Africa mountains such as Kilimanjaro, Mount Kenya, and the Rwensori, which are near the equator have two wet and dry seasons (dry = ~mid December through mid March or so and June through mid October) because as the locals say "the rains follow the sun". The ITCZ crosses the equator twice. The same is true in much of Ecuador, but Ecuador has really strange wet and dry seasons.   East of the Central Valley the dry season is  (generally) December through February and west of the Valley it is generally June through August. 

 

There are a few exceptions as pointed out.  

 

Which areas did I miss in the previous post?   I only listed the ones I could think of off the top of my head.


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#92
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 01:49 PM

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1) Simply slicing the tropics by the equator makes no physical sense to me, given the influence of Precession and Obliquity on seasonality, not to mention the ITCZ lags the insolation curve due to the oceans’ thermal inertia. Then there are topographic/thermodynamic engines like the EASM/RW ducting that play on the ITCZ differently by longitude over the solar year.

2) The A(w) climates you reference (also some A(m) climate areas) are generally located sufficiently poleward of the equator, such that they will clearly be under summer ITCZ influence. However, the equatorial A(m) climates, and the more sparse A(s) climates do not fit the wet summer/dry winter tendency, either because their periods of maximum ITCZ influence hold little correlation to their insolation curves (if not inverted in many cases), or in the latter case, external mechanics/local effects produce a localized break from regional climo.

4wVGRC3.jpg
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#93
Scott

Posted 24 March 2018 - 04:07 PM

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1) Simply slicing the tropics by the equator makes no physical sense to me, given the influence of Precession and Obliquity on seasonality, not to mention the ITCZ lags the insolation curve due to the oceans’ thermal inertia. Then there are topographic/thermodynamic engines like the EASM/RW ducting that play on the ITCZ differently by longitude over the solar year.

2) The A(w) climates you reference (also some A(m) climate areas) are generally located sufficiently poleward of the equator, such that they will clearly be under summer ITCZ influence. However, the equatorial A(m) climates, and the more sparse A(s) climates do not fit the wet summer/dry winter tendency, either because their periods of maximum ITCZ influence hold little correlation to their insolation curves (if not inverted in many cases), or in the latter case, external mechanics/local effects produce a localized break from regional climo.

 

 

Dang.  I got most of that, but how does that answer the question?  Which tropical areas have their wet season in the "winter"?   I was looking for a simple list, even if partially complete.

 

As far as the climate charts go, areas within those zones still have wet and dry seasons.  


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#94
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 04:24 PM

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Dang. I got most of that, but how does that answer the question? Which tropical areas have their wet season in the "winter"? I was looking for a simple list, even if partially complete.

As far as the climate charts go, areas within those zones still have wet and dry seasons.


That depends. Are we defining “winter” by the insolation curve or by temperature?
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#95
Scott

Posted 24 March 2018 - 04:38 PM

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Are we defining “winter” by the insolation curve or by temperature? 

 

 

Insolation. 


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#96
Phil

Posted 24 March 2018 - 06:41 PM

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Insolation.


In that case, you have the A(s) climate (tropical/dry summer) in parts of Eastern Africa like Somalia and Kenya. Also parts of Sri Lanka, portions of the Hawaiian Islands, portions of the Caribbean Islands, small parts of Northeastern Brazil, and small parts of Southwest India as well.

Also, there are tropical/arid climates with their “wet” seasons centered in the winter, like those of the Persian Gulf countries including the UAE, Qatar, etc. Though they’re a bit farther north than the others.

I’m probably missing a number of them. I forget the names of some of the Indonesian Islands that are often under the heavy EAWM influence, and I’m too lazy to look them up, haha.
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