TT-SEA Posted March 17, 2018 Report Share Posted March 17, 2018 Lets track this... 12Z EPS mean from 3/17 for day 12 (3/29): GFS ensemble mean at day 12: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 17, 2018 Report Share Posted March 17, 2018 I like the GFS ensemble much more on this one. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2018 I like the GFS ensemble much more on this one.And its been playing this too cold game for almost a month. The EPS has been so much more consistent with everything... cold and warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 18, 2018 Report Share Posted March 18, 2018 The EPS looks closer to what I think will happen. The exact timing is always questionable, though. The GEFS looks closer to what I think the pattern will morph into during early/mid April. The SE-ridge will probably be stronger, though (IMO). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 18, 2018 Report Share Posted March 18, 2018 It’s suddenly become fluid. Lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted March 18, 2018 Report Share Posted March 18, 2018 It’s suddenly become fluid. Lol. I feel for the Mets on this storm as there really is no easy answer until it's right on top of us and the fact many want the answers now really compounds the challenges of this forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 18, 2018 Report Share Posted March 18, 2018 I feel for the Mets on this storm as there really is no easy answer until it's right on top of us and the fact many want the answers now really compounds the challenges of this forecasts.I expect white rain until proven otherwise. Since the surface low will be disjointed from the 500mb low, the thermals aloft will be borderline. Therefore it will need to puke like a mofo to accumulate on anything other than grassy surfaces. Getting pavement accumulation with temperatures in the upper 30’s was hard enough during early February. Now we’ll need to pull it off at the spring equinox, after a stretch of 55*F weather and pounding sunshine. Lol.. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted March 18, 2018 Report Share Posted March 18, 2018 I expect white rain until proven otherwise. Since the surface low will be disjointed from the 500mb low, the thermals aloft will be borderline. Therefore it will need to puke like a mofo to accumulate on anything other than grassy surfaces.Getting pavement accumulation with temperatures in the upper 30’s was hard enough during early February. Now we’ll need to pull it off at the spring equinox, after a stretch of 55*F weather and pounding sunshine. Lol..agreed plus I think the fact this winter snow season was so lame many are ungoreing the negative factors just so this storm would be the one that break the trend so to speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Update: (note - the GFS ensemble map at 252 hours was messed up and had inverted colors on WB so I am using the afternoon of the same day for both) EPS: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Update: (note - the GFS ensemble map at 252 hours was messed up and had inverted colors on WB so I am using the afternoon of the same day for both) EPS: Looks like they’re meeting in the middle. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like they’re meeting in the middle. Well darn. Completely defeats the purpose of this thread. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like they’re meeting in the middle.I would say the EPS has moved toward the GFS ensemble, which basically looks the same as it did a few days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 I would say the EPS has moved toward the GFS ensemble, which basically looks the same as it did a few days ago. GFS has moved a little towards the ECMWF as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Well darn. Completely defeats the purpose of this thread. Not really... its interesting regardless of the outcome. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS has moved a little towards the ECMWF as well. The GEFS maybe took one pace while the EPS took like five. Just crazy to see the GFS leading the way on a big pattern change like this. I will admit I am a little proud of our domestic model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 The GEFS maybe took one pace while the EPS took like five. Just crazy to see the GFS leading the way on a big pattern change like this. I will admit I am a little proud of our domestic model. I am not sure the EPS moved that much towards the GFS. Its still warm along the West Coast and the center of the real cold air in Canada is smaller and not any closer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Not really... its interesting regardless of the outcome. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 I am not sure the EPS moved that much towards the GFS. Its still warm along the West Coast and the center of the real cold air in Canada is smaller and not any closer. I wish objectivity wasn't such a one way street with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 I wish objectivity wasn't such a one way street with you. The EPS did not trend closer with the core of the cold air in Canada. The main players are in the same basic position on the EPS. The area of really cold air in northern Canada is shrinking a little and the warm anomalies offshore are a little more robust. Its not making some dramatic move at that time towards much colder like you are implying. You can also try being objective. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 The EPS did not trend closer with the core of the cold air in Canada. The main players are in the same basic position on the EPS. The area of really cold air in northern Canada is shrinking a little and the warm anomalies offshore are a little more robust. Its not making some dramatic move at that time towards much colder like you are implying. You can also try being objective.#nospinzone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 Update from the 12Z runs... EPS is not wavering at all for the day we have been tracking (3/29). For reference... here is where the EPS started: GFS ensemble mean is slowly coming into line... warm air is shown farther east with each run. For reference... here is where the GFS started. I am guessing it will shift farther east again over the next couple days and finally be in agreement once we get within 6 or 7 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like they’re meeting in the middle. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like they’re meeting in the middle. Then I guess the "middle" is going to end up warm for us. We started with the EPS showing warm for us... and the GFS being quite cold (as it always seems to be in the long range lately). Very different weather locally. We will very likely end up being warm on that day... if that happens then I am going to give it to the model that showed it being warm. That would be the EPS. This all started because people were posting about the cold, wet, and troughy GFS ensembles as if they were going to verify... and I said the EPS consistently showed the cold trough for later this week and weekend and then consistently showed a ridge and warmer air moving in next week. Very hard to argue against the EPS at this point. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 Look at the orientation of the ridge/trough axes. It’s really is a compromise on the pattern. FWIW, I don’t think the early April ridgy period was ever in question. It’s been a high-probability outcome for awhile now, IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Update: Where EPS started at 12 days out... Where GFS ensembles started at 12 days out: What it shows now: EPS is not wavering... anomalies are getting stronger as the time approaches as expected. GFS still moving towards EPS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Huh? The EPS totally flopped over NE Canada and Alaska. Unless you’re just talking about your region? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Huh? The EPS totally flopped over NE Canada and Alaska. Unless you’re just talking about your region?Yes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 https://youtu.be/Yd0fBXwDBmo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Update from 12Z runs... GFS ensemble mean sure came around to the EPS for our test day. They now agree since its only 6 days out. 12Z EPS: 12Z GFS ensembles: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Making progress! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Update from 12Z runs... GFS ensemble mean sure came around to the EPS for our test day. They now agree since its only 6 days out.Dude..this is some insane cherrypicking. In reality, each of the 5-day blocks on the 18z GEFS are colder than average across the PNW: Days 1-5, days 6-10, and days 11-15: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 I am not making a forecast here. I am not talking about where the pattern is going in the thread. I am tracking how the EPS and GFS ensembles evolved for one specific day as test. That was all I ever intended with this little experiment. Every post will be looking at 3/29. We started 12 days out and are now within 6 days. I wanted to see how they trend for that day and score the actual results when that day arrives. This is not an ongoing thread. It will end on Thursday. We could start another thread though for ongoing comparisons... might be a good for reference. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 That’s a head scratcher to me, but fair enough. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 That’s a head scratcher to me, but fair enough. Ever had a forecast contest? It specific to a day. Obviously what happens next weekend an beyond is a much more interesting wild card now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 Tomorrow is the validation day. EPS was closer, at least for my area. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 No doubt that the GFS ensembles won this battle. Hands down. I was 100% wrong in my theory. I guess that was the point of the test though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 The actual result today... I say the GFS ensemble mean won overall. Looking back... both models ended up pretty close though at about one week out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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