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March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!


Madtown

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To no surprise, this thing looks like it's starting to fall apart already. Latest GFS is not my friend. It has it going south, even completely missing Chicago. This is going to be a nail biter. But at least the extended is showing up with 50s next week, as long as that ice (well most of it) is gone I'm jumping on my stand up jet ski and enjoying the wonderful 40 degree water. I will be so happy if I get to snowboard this weekend, then the same week I'm out on the lake. Only in Wisconsin, baby!

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GFS sped up a bit and shows the heaviest snow moving through E Iowa Friday evening and overnight, which would be ideal for snow accums.  Still marginal temps though, so this is a real toss up on rain/snow.  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032012/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The euro snow maps are using a hard 10 to 1 ratio, not accounting for any melting, so they are best used for general intensity and placement of the snow and not specific amounts.

 

The 00z euro is showing the heaviest snow moving through northeast Iowa right smack in the middle of the day, which would certainly limit totals.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_144.png

 

Thank you for that.

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To no surprise, this thing looks like it's starting to fall apart already. Latest GFS is not my friend. It has it going south, even completely missing Chicago. This is going to be a nail biter. But at least the extended is showing up with 50s next week, as long as that ice (well most of it) is gone I'm jumping on my stand up jet ski and enjoying the wonderful 40 degree water. I will be so happy if I get to snowboard this weekend, then the same week I'm out on the lake. Only in Wisconsin, baby!

It is continually shearing it out as the other models do not so most likely there will be a bigger impact then what it is currently showing. Until the other models start to cave I cannot agree with the GFS.

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Canadian took a step towards the GFS and Euro.  Also went bonkers with snow.  This is straight 10:1 though, so not going to be accurate, but you get the idea.

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_20.png

Track wise looks similar to past Euro run but obviously the Euro was not as dramatic.

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I can't tell what is rain/snow here, but the UK is heaviest with precip in southern Iowa.  It definitely had a further SW track than the other models.  

 

The 12z UK took a big jump sw compared to the previous couple runs.  It'll be interesting to see if the euro shifts sw a bit more and/or speeds up to join the other models' timing.

 

I wish the UK people would add precip type to their data/maps.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro continues the model trend of shifting southwest.  The Canadian is the only model remaining that gives anything to Chicago.

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_102.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_114.png

ecmwf_acc_precip_conus_114.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow, 12z Euro going bonkers for MN into NE IA into N IL...cut off is for real though near Chitown...

That is really cutting it close but at least not shearing it out like the GFS so we are still in play with this one. Many more runs to go but the trend is at least wetter.

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If the strength holds, this will be one sick looking storm on radar....

 

Yeah, this will have loads of moisture and a large precip shield.

 

I forgot to mention that the 12z euro did also speed it up a bit, so the heaviest snow would fall here in the morning.  Another nudge faster would help even more.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18


Through 3/19//2018


 


Marquette: 132.5"


Sault Ste. Marie: 95.4"


Grand Rapids: 71.7"


Duluth 68.7"


Detroit: 58.6"


International Falls: 54.6"


Minneapolis: 48.1"


Rochester MN: 43.2"


Rapid City: 42.6"


Milwaukee: 36.7"


Sioux Falls SD: 36.5"


Fargo: 34.1"


Norfolk NE: 33.9"


Chicago O'Hare: 32.9"


Pierre SD: 32.0"


Bismarck: 31.3"


Madison WI: 30.9"


Green Bay: 29.9"


Des Moines: 26.4"


Waterloo IA: 25.0"


Mason City IA: 24.7"


Lincoln: 18.4"


Omaha: 15.5"


Topeka: 7.4"


Springfield IL: 7.0"


St Louis: 6.5"


Kansas City MO: 5.8"


Tulsa OK: 2.0"


Wichita: 1.0"


Oklahoma City: 0.4"


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its the best snow.  here one day golfing the next

 

I had hopes of snowboarding on Sunday and jumping in the lake on Thursday. I absolutely hate the downtime between snowboarding and summer stuff. I used to just go backpack Asia or Europe for a month or two and work remotely.

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00z ICON actually moved farther sw, now doesn't even get precip past Waterloo/Cedar Rapids.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18

Through 3/19//2018

 

Marquette: 132.5"

Sault Ste. Marie: 95.4"

Grand Rapids: 71.7"

Duluth 68.7"

Detroit: 58.6"

International Falls: 54.6"

Minneapolis: 48.1"

Rochester MN: 43.2"

Rapid City: 42.6"

Milwaukee: 36.7"

Sioux Falls SD: 36.5"

Fargo: 34.1"

Norfolk NE: 33.9"

Chicago O'Hare: 32.9"

Pierre SD: 32.0"

Bismarck: 31.3"

Madison WI: 30.9"

Green Bay: 29.9"

Des Moines: 26.4"

Waterloo IA: 25.0"

Mason City IA: 24.7"

Lincoln: 18.4"

Omaha: 15.5"

Topeka: 7.4"

Springfield IL: 7.0"

St Louis: 6.5"

Kansas City MO: 5.8"

Tulsa OK: 2.0"

Wichita: 1.0"

Oklahoma City: 0.4"

I got less snow than Oklahoma City. :(

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