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March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!

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#1
Madtown

Posted 19 March 2018 - 06:44 PM

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I don't know...why not?
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#2
Madtown

Posted 20 March 2018 - 06:25 AM

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Well come on now!

#3
james1976

Posted 20 March 2018 - 06:37 AM

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Good luck. Haha

#4
gimmesnow

Posted 20 March 2018 - 08:04 AM

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To no surprise, this thing looks like it's starting to fall apart already. Latest GFS is not my friend. It has it going south, even completely missing Chicago. This is going to be a nail biter. But at least the extended is showing up with 50s next week, as long as that ice (well most of it) is gone I'm jumping on my stand up jet ski and enjoying the wonderful 40 degree water. I will be so happy if I get to snowboard this weekend, then the same week I'm out on the lake. Only in Wisconsin, baby!


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#5
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 08:23 AM

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GFS sped up a bit and shows the heaviest snow moving through E Iowa Friday evening and overnight, which would be ideal for snow accums.  Still marginal temps though, so this is a real toss up on rain/snow.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#6
gimmesnow

Posted 20 March 2018 - 08:30 AM

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The euro snow maps are using a hard 10 to 1 ratio, not accounting for any melting, so they are best used for general intensity and placement of the snow and not specific amounts.

 

The 00z euro is showing the heaviest snow moving through northeast Iowa right smack in the middle of the day, which would certainly limit totals.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_144.png

 

Thank you for that.



#7
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 08:34 AM

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Canadian took a step towards the GFS and Euro.  Also went bonkers with snow.  This is straight 10:1 though, so not going to be accurate, but you get the idea.

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_20.png



#8
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 08:36 AM

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ICON

 

 

icon_asnow_ncus_39.png


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#9
Tony

Posted 20 March 2018 - 09:11 AM

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To no surprise, this thing looks like it's starting to fall apart already. Latest GFS is not my friend. It has it going south, even completely missing Chicago. This is going to be a nail biter. But at least the extended is showing up with 50s next week, as long as that ice (well most of it) is gone I'm jumping on my stand up jet ski and enjoying the wonderful 40 degree water. I will be so happy if I get to snowboard this weekend, then the same week I'm out on the lake. Only in Wisconsin, baby!

It is continually shearing it out as the other models do not so most likely there will be a bigger impact then what it is currently showing. Until the other models start to cave I cannot agree with the GFS.



#10
Tony

Posted 20 March 2018 - 09:13 AM

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Canadian took a step towards the GFS and Euro.  Also went bonkers with snow.  This is straight 10:1 though, so not going to be accurate, but you get the idea.

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_20.png

Track wise looks similar to past Euro run but obviously the Euro was not as dramatic.



#11
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 09:22 AM

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I can't tell what is rain/snow here, but the UK is heaviest with precip in southern Iowa.  It definitely had a further SW track than the other models.  

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_120 (1).png   256.53KB   0 downloads


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#12
Hawkeye

Posted 20 March 2018 - 09:34 AM

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I can't tell what is rain/snow here, but the UK is heaviest with precip in southern Iowa.  It definitely had a further SW track than the other models.  

 

The 12z UK took a big jump sw compared to the previous couple runs.  It'll be interesting to see if the euro shifts sw a bit more and/or speeds up to join the other models' timing.

 

I wish the UK people would add precip type to their data/maps.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#13
Tom

Posted 20 March 2018 - 10:25 AM

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Wow, 12z Euro going bonkers for MN into NE IA into N IL...cut off is for real though near Chitown...



#14
Hawkeye

Posted 20 March 2018 - 10:27 AM

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12z Euro continues the model trend of shifting southwest.  The Canadian is the only model remaining that gives anything to Chicago.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_102.png   242.79KB   1 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_114.png   169.3KB   2 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_precip_conus_114.png   256.43KB   2 downloads


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#15
Tony

Posted 20 March 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Wow, 12z Euro going bonkers for MN into NE IA into N IL...cut off is for real though near Chitown...

That is really cutting it close but at least not shearing it out like the GFS so we are still in play with this one. Many more runs to go but the trend is at least wetter.


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#16
Tom

Posted 20 March 2018 - 10:34 AM

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12z Euro continues the model trend of shifting southwest.  The Canadian is the only model remaining that gives anything to Chicago.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_102.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_114.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_precip_conus_114.png

If the strength holds, this will be one sick looking storm on radar....



#17
Hawkeye

Posted 20 March 2018 - 10:43 AM

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If the strength holds, this will be one sick looking storm on radar....

 

Yeah, this will have loads of moisture and a large precip shield.

 

I forgot to mention that the 12z euro did also speed it up a bit, so the heaviest snow would fall here in the morning.  Another nudge faster would help even more.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#18
Money

Posted 20 March 2018 - 11:07 AM

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Lol at wanting snow in the end of March
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#19
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 11:13 AM

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March snow is the best.  Because then you get the fun of watching it fall, but it's gone in a few days and usually warming up.  I just want precip, if we get snow that would be very cool, if not at least give me some solid rain.  


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#20
gosaints

Posted 20 March 2018 - 11:13 AM

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Lol at wanting snow in the end of March

its the best snow.  here one day golfing the next


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#21
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 11:14 AM

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Here's a closer up view.  The Euro has shifted at least 100 miles SW from 2 days ago, maybe closer to 150 miles.  I could use 50 more though. :) 

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_240.png   182.74KB   1 downloads



#22
Money

Posted 20 March 2018 - 11:48 AM

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its the best snow. here one day golfing the next


I rather it just be 50’s and sunny so I I don’t have to drive in it

#23
Tom

Posted 20 March 2018 - 11:54 AM

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Lol at wanting snow in the end of March

Are you serious?  You were the one asking if the Euro was showing snow a day or two ago.  LOL


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#24
Tabitha

Posted 20 March 2018 - 12:01 PM

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Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18

Through 3/19//2018

 

Marquette: 132.5"

Sault Ste. Marie: 95.4"

Grand Rapids: 71.7"

Duluth 68.7"

Detroit: 58.6"

International Falls: 54.6"

Minneapolis: 48.1"

Rochester MN: 43.2"

Rapid City: 42.6"

Milwaukee: 36.7"

Sioux Falls SD: 36.5"

Fargo: 34.1"

Norfolk NE: 33.9"

Chicago O'Hare: 32.9"

Pierre SD: 32.0"

Bismarck: 31.3"

Madison WI: 30.9"

Green Bay: 29.9"

Des Moines: 26.4"

Waterloo IA: 25.0"

Mason City IA: 24.7"

Lincoln: 18.4"

Omaha: 15.5"

Topeka: 7.4"

Springfield IL: 7.0"

St Louis: 6.5"

Kansas City MO: 5.8"

Tulsa OK: 2.0"

Wichita: 1.0"

Oklahoma City: 0.4"



#25
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 20 March 2018 - 12:20 PM

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wait what


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#26
Money

Posted 20 March 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Are you serious? You were the one asking if the Euro was showing snow a day or two ago. LOL


Shhhh

Trying to jinx it

#27
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 02:17 PM

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18z GFS sliding a bit more SW again.  The low sinks south of STL this run as it weakens and pulls away.  



#28
buzzman289

Posted 20 March 2018 - 02:45 PM

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can u feel it slipping thru our fingers


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#29
bud2380

Posted 20 March 2018 - 02:48 PM

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sn10_acc.us_mw.png



#30
gimmesnow

Posted 20 March 2018 - 02:54 PM

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its the best snow.  here one day golfing the next

 

I had hopes of snowboarding on Sunday and jumping in the lake on Thursday. I absolutely hate the downtime between snowboarding and summer stuff. I used to just go backpack Asia or Europe for a month or two and work remotely.



#31
Tony

Posted 20 March 2018 - 07:23 PM

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0z Nam for what it's worth at this long range has precp alot farther north

#32
james1976

Posted 20 March 2018 - 07:45 PM

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Ill be in Chicago Friday night, Peoria Saturday night and Minneapolis Sunday night. So of course my backyard will get dumped on while im not there. Instead, Ill be on the interstate dealing with idiot drivers that think its 75 and sunny.


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#33
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 20 March 2018 - 07:46 PM

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Lets keep it moving southwest for nebraska lol. I can dream right?


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#34
Hawkeye

Posted 20 March 2018 - 08:01 PM

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00z GFS with a decent jump back northeast.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#35
Hawkeye

Posted 20 March 2018 - 08:11 PM

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00z ICON actually moved farther sw, now doesn't even get precip past Waterloo/Cedar Rapids.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#36
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 March 2018 - 09:45 PM

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Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18


Through 3/19//2018



Marquette: 132.5"


Sault Ste. Marie: 95.4"


Grand Rapids: 71.7"


Duluth 68.7"


Detroit: 58.6"


International Falls: 54.6"


Minneapolis: 48.1"


Rochester MN: 43.2"


Rapid City: 42.6"


Milwaukee: 36.7"


Sioux Falls SD: 36.5"


Fargo: 34.1"


Norfolk NE: 33.9"


Chicago O'Hare: 32.9"


Pierre SD: 32.0"


Bismarck: 31.3"


Madison WI: 30.9"


Green Bay: 29.9"


Des Moines: 26.4"


Waterloo IA: 25.0"


Mason City IA: 24.7"


Lincoln: 18.4"


Omaha: 15.5"


Topeka: 7.4"


Springfield IL: 7.0"


St Louis: 6.5"


Kansas City MO: 5.8"


Tulsa OK: 2.0"


Wichita: 1.0"


Oklahoma City: 0.4"


I got less snow than Oklahoma City. :(

#37
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:40 AM

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Canadian and Euro are further SW than the NAM and GFS. Euro has the heavy band from Waterloo to Davenport. Iowa City gets clipped with moderate snow and Cedar Rapids just inside the heavier band.

#38
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:55 AM

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6z GFS shifted back SW. looks a lot like the Euro

#39
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 03:18 AM

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The amped up totals from previous runs are fading away, nonetheless, some Spring snow is on the way...

 

DYzs0eoX0AArDjx.jpg


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#40
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 March 2018 - 05:05 AM

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Let’s do it. It would get MSP to 50” officially on the season and ensure a ‘normal’ annual total for the first time since 2013-14.
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#41
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 05:10 AM

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Let’s do it. It would get MSP to 50” officially on the season and ensure a ‘normal’ annual total for the first time since 2013-14.

I think your going to see more snow in April the way things are trending over the next 2-3 weeks!



#42
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 06:54 AM

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the NAM remains further north and much stronger.   



#43
Hawkeye

Posted 21 March 2018 - 07:00 AM

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the NAM remains further north and much stronger.   

 

Yep, sticking with a Decorah to Dubuque band of snow.

 

namconus_asnowd_ncus_29.png


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#44
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 07:28 AM

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Here are some maps from the 00z EPS...some pretty big hits...

 

 

 

DY0RsYfVMAUijwD.jpg

 

DY0RsonVQAAkO3L.jpg



#45
Hawkeye

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:04 AM

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gfs_asnowd_ncus_16.png


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#46
Hoosier

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:27 AM

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Hawkeye, what's with the snow depth change maps and not the accumulation maps like Kuchera?

#47
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:27 AM

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Here are some maps from the 00z EPS...some pretty big hits...
 
 
 
DY0RsYfVMAUijwD.jpg
 
DY0RsonVQAAkO3L.jpg


Can we put that map over iowa? I didn't even know there were any snow chances for yesterday. Been busy following severe wx as of late, even though none of the events were particularly noteworthy.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#48
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:38 AM

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Canadian is a bit further NE than the GFS, ICON remains further SW than the other models.  Ukie up next.  



#49
Hawkeye

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:40 AM

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Hawkeye, what's with the snow depth change maps and not the accumulation maps like Kuchera?

 

Tropical Tidbits doesn't have any kuchera maps.  It only has 10:1 maps and the snow depth change maps.  I figure in this case the snow depth map would be a better representation of actually amounts as it seems to cut down on the bogus totals.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#50
Tony

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:47 AM

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This system will have some pretty heavy snowfall rates and should be some surprise totals when its all said and done. GFS is no longer shearing this out and models are expanding the precip field farther north with each run. I believe we will see the models become wetter again with each run as we are in March now and there is plenty of available moisture.