Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
james1976

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:51 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4223 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Wish i was gonna be home! Im sure my backyard will get dumped on now.

#52
Hoosier

Posted 21 March 2018 - 08:59 AM

Hoosier

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 88 posts
  • LocationGriffith, Indiana
There should be some decent power outage potential given the wet snow and gusts maybe in the 30-40 mph range. Obviously if higher end amounts like the Canadian pan out, that is going to be an enormous problem for the power grid.
  • jaster220 likes this

#53
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 09:02 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

impossible to tell for sure ptypes on this map, but UK looks further SW.  

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif



#54
hlcater

Posted 21 March 2018 - 09:05 AM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1269 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA
Does Hawkeyes still have those nice Ukie precip maps?

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#55
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 09:06 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

850s plenty cold enough on the UK for snow.

 

 

TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif



#56
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 09:18 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Canadian with 20" over Clinton, IA.  If that happens, I'll drive to Clinton just to witness this.

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#57
Hawkeye

Posted 21 March 2018 - 09:31 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1543 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

Does Hawkeyes still have those nice Ukie precip maps?

 

Only difference vs the last run is the current run dialed back the overall precip intensity.

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_90.png   244.39KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#58
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 10:24 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

I continue to be directly on the cutoff line here.  I need a 30-50 miles shift further west or SW.  As it stands it looks like I could get a couple inches, but just miss out on the 6"+ totals.  

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_84.png   128.97KB   0 downloads


  • Hawkeye likes this

#59
Hawkeye

Posted 21 March 2018 - 10:27 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1543 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The only change from the 12z euro is something a few other models have also shown this morning.... a lessening of the rain totals in the sw part of the band.

 

If only this thing could sag one more county southwestward.  This could end up dumping several inches just barely northeast of Cedar Rapids, while CR itself gets a sloppy inch.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_84.png   134.13KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_90.png   179.59KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_precip_conus_90.png   240.76KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#60
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 10:35 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

one more county SW would be perfect.  We're still 60 hours out so plenty of time for some wobbling.  



#61
Money

Posted 21 March 2018 - 10:43 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
30 more counties NE will be perfect

#62
jaster220

Posted 21 March 2018 - 10:49 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4893 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

30 more counties NE will be perfect

 

You drunk or just a typo??  :huh:  :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#63
buzzman289

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:04 AM

buzzman289

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 33 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids,Ia
Both bud and hawkeye would be fine with those maps, just panicking

#64
james1976

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:28 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4223 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Im gonna get a foot just cuz i wont be home

#65
Tony

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:33 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1572 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

Just need a little more wobble north to be in the game...consider it done.



#66
gosaints

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:43 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4451 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

GEOS


  • jaster220 likes this

#67
Geos

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:52 AM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7991 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

GEOS

 

I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.


  • Tom, jaster220 and St Paul Storm like this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#68
Money

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:53 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts

I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.


What you been up to bud?

#69
Tony

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:53 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1572 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.

Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed!



#70
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:56 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z EPS...did nudge north a bit....

 

DY1j5r1WAAAgulC.jpg

 

DY1j5r3W0AAB9JW.jpg


  • Tony likes this

#71
jaster220

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:57 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4893 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.

 

Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed!

 

Can say that again! Wish he'd come at Christmas and dropped it off @ Tom's place for safe keeping.  


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#72
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:58 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z EPS...

 

DY1lUS_U8AA6y3x.jpg

 

 

12z GEFS...

 

DY1lUTCVMAAW9Pn.jpg



#73
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:58 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.

How has the west coast been treating ya? 



#74
Geos

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:01 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7991 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

What you been up to bud?

 

 

Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed!

 

I never left the forum. I just in the west subforum since I live in that region now. Work brought me out here. 

 

Can say that again! Wish he'd come at Christmas and dropped it off @ Tom's place for safe keeping.  

 

Lol. Yeah I guess you could have used it then. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#75
Geos

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:03 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7991 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

How has the west coast been treating ya? 

 

Just fine. Climate is nice except I don't see snow at my feet where I live too much. I have to travel 30-45 minutes to see appreciable amounts. Taken up snowboarding since I've been here the last year and a half. It does suck that there isn't many thunderstorms here outside of the mountains. The microclimates from one location to another are fascinating though. 


  • Tom likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#76
Geos

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:12 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7991 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

I guess this thing is trending a little northeast? Or is it too early to tell if it is just model wobbles. Those are some really impressive totals in the Quad Cities area down towards Champaign.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#77
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:13 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

NWS  DVN has updated the point forecasts.  Calling for 2" for my area.  4" for Cedar Rapids.  6" for areas northeast of CR.  



#78
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:16 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I guess this thing is trending a little northeast? Or is it too early to tell if it is just model wobbles. Those are some really impressive totals in the Quad Cities area down towards Champaign.

I'd rather be on the northern end of the snow maps than on the southern end.  If this system is as strong as progged, then I'd say there is room for a tick north.  This system has that feel of a juiced up Alberta-like clipper in late March!


  • Hawkeye, Tony and St Paul Storm like this

#79
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:21 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Nice wording from LOT:

 

 

 

Guidance also signaling the potential for strong mesoscale forcing
as a sloped region of strong F-gen overspreads portions of the CWA
topped by a region of negative EPV and steep mid/upper level
lapse rates which will allow for a deep vertical response to the
forcing. The combination of strong forcing and instability will
set the stage for heavy snowfall rates, which will likely be in
the form of large aggregates at times as soundings show a deep
region of saturation cutting across a broad temperature range.
 

  • FV-Mike likes this

#80
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:23 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Winter Storm watches issued for parts of North Dakota and far western MN.  



#81
gimmesnow

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:33 PM

gimmesnow

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 150 posts
  • LocationSE Wisconsin

Hope this thing can bulk up a bit and spread more snow to the north. I'm going to be so ecstatic if I end my snowboarding season in fresh snow, then Tuesday we get half an inch of rain in the 50s to burn off all the ice on the lake. 52 and sunny, that lake is calling my name thursday and friday. Though that cold water is rough when you jump in, you can't breath for a while.

 

It's holding together a lot better than I thought it would.



#82
Tony

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:44 PM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1572 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

I'd rather be on the northern end of the snow maps than on the southern end.  If this system is as strong as progged, then I'd say there is room for a tick north.  This system has that feel of a juiced up Alberta-like clipper in late March!

I'll take a slight bump north on each run starting with the 18z.



#83
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:45 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

nam took another jog northeast.  



#84
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:48 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

DVN at least admitting they won't know how much snow will fall until it's basically falling.  

 

 

 

As for snow amounts, the storm track and thermal profiles of the
atmosphere will be very important. Overall forcing will be quite
strong Friday night into Saturday morning so the probability is high
that a significant band of accumulating snow will develop. Where
this band sets up may not be fully known until Friday night.



#85
Tom

Posted 21 March 2018 - 12:52 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
Night time snowfall in late March will at least pose no threat to radiational warming. Should see the snow stack up better wherever that does happen.
  • Geos likes this

#86
Geos

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:19 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7991 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

NAM kinda peters out the high amounts into IL. Still pretty good considering were past the equinox now.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_27.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#87
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:23 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

18z ICON took a big jump northeast from it's 12z Run. it went from the furthest SW to possibly the furthest NE.  



#88
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:43 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1717 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
A bit surprised the watch includes part of the TC metro. MPX siding with the GFS and NAM, saying the Euro is too far east with the heaviest snow.

#89
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:49 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

GFS looks a lot different this run.  Weird really.  



#90
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:50 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

GFS may be latching onto this inverted trough idea that the Euro is doing.  Because a secondary area of much heavier precip is breaking out behind the cold air in central IA this run.  



#91
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 01:53 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

GFS did shift further NE with the lead band from the 12z run.  



#92
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 March 2018 - 05:48 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1717 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
I’m still not fully on board with this system but here’s the latest thinking in these parts.

Attached Files



#93
bud2380

Posted 21 March 2018 - 06:42 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA
NAM a bit further south this run than 18z.

#94
Hawkeye

Posted 21 March 2018 - 10:23 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1543 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The models continue to be pretty darn consistent with the snow band.  Any changes on the evening runs are subtle.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#95
Hawkeye

Posted 21 March 2018 - 11:33 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1543 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The biggest model shift this evening is actually the euro ensemble mean.  It had been northeast of the op run, centered over Dubuque, but it just jumped sw.

 

Attached File  eps_acc_snow_greatlakes_78.png   177.28KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#96
Tom

Posted 22 March 2018 - 02:28 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

WSW's hoisted for parts of NE IA into N IL with 4-8" in the forecast...



#97
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 03:49 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA
Model tends overnight shifted about one county south in eastern Iowa which is good news for me. Cedar Rapids seems to be firmly in the heavier swath. I’m still on the edge but getting closer. A few inches looks likely here at this point. Cedar Rapids could get 6”. Just to the east of CR is looking like the best spot for heavier snow.

#98
hlcater

Posted 22 March 2018 - 04:05 AM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1269 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA
Interesting how bullish DVN is on the forecast with this kne. However, I think they are a tad too north given the recent model shift southward. I like where I sit for this one.

Attached Files


  • Tom likes this

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#99
Tom

Posted 22 March 2018 - 04:10 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17097 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
You guys in E IA are in for a sweet storm. Who’s pulling an all nighter? Lol. Some posters in N/C IL are also going to cash in Bigly from this one.

#100
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 March 2018 - 04:30 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1717 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
06z GFS with about a one county shift back to the NE here. 06z NAMs with a bump NE as well. It’s all going to depend on where the pivot sets up and the eastward progression stops. Riding the line between nothing and a few inches. If we do get precip at least the changeover from liquid to frozen should be fairly quick. Should fall at night too which will help with any accums.