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March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!

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#101
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 March 2018 - 04:49 AM

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Good luck to everyone on here. I'll take the rain that Lincoln's getting. Let's get everything greened up.
  • jaster220 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#102
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 06:26 AM

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NAM shifted north.... again.  



#103
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 March 2018 - 06:28 AM

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One thing I’ve noticed in the last few runs is that the axis of precip is becoming more N/S oriented as opposed to NW/SE on a few of the models.
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#104
hlcater

Posted 22 March 2018 - 06:31 AM

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NAM introduces a massive warm nose aloft chopping snow totals down quite a lot. NAM seems to be biased in the sense that it always seems to overdo ZR on these types of events. Especially when the snow, especially initially, is going to be induced by dynamic cooling. To have it start as rain, go to snow through this process only to go back to ZR? I guess... but I don't buy that. 

 

EDIT: By a lot I mean 0.45-0.7QPF,  so a good 3-5" of snow at least.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#105
Tom

Posted 22 March 2018 - 06:42 AM

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Convective nature to this system may even pose a threat for Thundersnow???

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png



#106
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 06:51 AM

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3k NAM

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#107
Hawkeye

Posted 22 March 2018 - 06:57 AM

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One thing I’ve noticed in the last few runs is that the axis of precip is becoming more N/S oriented as opposed to NW/SE on a few of the models.

 

I've been noticing that as well.

 

 

Tropical Tidbits' 3k nam Ferrier rime correction snow map is pretty ugly for Cedar Rapids... way northeast.  My initial guess of a sloppy inch or two is still on track.

 

nam3km_asnow_ferrier_ncus_61.png


  • St Paul Storm likes this

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#108
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 March 2018 - 06:59 AM

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On the 12z NAM it shows 11” Kuchera here. On the 3km NAM it’s a complete whiff in my county. Gotta love it inside 40 hours.

St. Paul would be sending it’s snow removal equip 12 miles over to Minneapolis. Nasty gradient on this. Wowzers.

#109
gabel23

Posted 22 March 2018 - 07:35 AM

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On the 12z NAM it shows 11” Kuchera here. On the 3km NAM it’s a complete whiff in my county. Gotta love it inside 40 hours.

St. Paul would be sending it’s snow removal equip 12 miles over to Minneapolis. Nasty gradient on this. Wowzers.

That's been the theme of the winter.....nasty gradients. It seemed like every storm we have gotten this year has had some crazy cut offs in totals. 


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#110
Hawkeye

Posted 22 March 2018 - 07:38 AM

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12z ICON, about the same

 

icon_asnow_ncus_23.png


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#111
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 March 2018 - 07:47 AM

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12z GFS a tick north through hr 48 and a few ticks weaker.

#112
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 07:56 AM

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I'm riding the RGEM here.  It's much colder which accounts for the differences in snow.

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#113
Stormgeek

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:03 AM

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This better either go spring mode and whiff or dump on me. With my luck I will somehow get stuck in that very tight gradient with an inch or 2. Either way it should melt quickly with the high sun angle.

#114
hlcater

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:10 AM

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A tick back NE on the 12z guidance. Perhaps I shouldn't be complacent about my location until the actual event. CR is back on the edge as always.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#115
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:22 AM

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Go Canada!!

 

gem_asnow_ncus_11.png



#116
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:23 AM

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The moisture is there for anyone in eastern Iowa to score big on snow totals.  The question will be how quickly does this transition to snow.  The sooner and further west this happens, the higher accumulations will be.  It's pretty much a guessing game here.  



#117
Hawkeye

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:28 AM

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Let's see if the euro can hold serve with a slightly more sw solution.  I'm still not on board the CR snow train.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#118
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:47 AM

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Again, wish we could get p-types from the UK, but it certainly seems to continue to advertise a further SW solution.

 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif



#119
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:50 AM

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850s at the same time. - if the UK is right, then the heavy snow band would easily encompass Iowa City and Cedar Rapids and points to the east. 

 

TT_GZ_UU_VV_042_0850.gif

 

 

TT_GZ_UU_VV_048_0850.gif



#120
hlcater

Posted 22 March 2018 - 08:52 AM

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Upon looking at QPF maps on the NAM, the main axis of precip barely moved. What happened is that a lot of the precip in the CR/IC area falls as ZR, which cuts at least 3-4 inches into the accum snowfall there. As I said earlier, the NAM always seems to be a champion of ZR/IP in marginal temp precip events. I

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#121
Hawkeye

Posted 22 March 2018 - 09:19 AM

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12z UK total precip

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_60.png   231.44KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#122
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 09:20 AM

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UK barely has any precip for Dubuque, which is where the higher totals are on the GFS & NAM.  



#123
snowman1

Posted 22 March 2018 - 09:28 AM

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You guys in E IA are in for a sweet storm. Who’s pulling an all nighter? Lol. Some posters in N/C IL are also going to cash in Bigly from this one.

 

I don't know about an all-nighter, but I'm thinking of maybe setting the alarm clock to get up early Sat. morning. Looks good as of now, but I'm still trying to not jinx it!



#124
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 09:39 AM

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I still think the Euro performs best in these situations, i'm hoping it does again.  



#125
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 10:16 AM

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Euro is even further south than 00z run. Looks similar to UK and Canadian. It’s American models vs the world right now

#126
Hawkeye

Posted 22 March 2018 - 10:56 AM

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The euro has also weakened the system a bit, perhaps helping to keep the warm surge in check and allow a farther sw rain/snow line.  The max qpf has fallen from ~1.5" to ~1.2".

 

The snow band looks better for CR than on other models, but the best ratios should still be in the ne half of the band where it'll be a couple degrees colder.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_66.png   142.76KB   2 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#127
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 11:08 AM

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That's 4" more for Iowa City than the 00z run.  



#128
james1976

Posted 22 March 2018 - 11:09 AM

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Anyone buying these high totals? Maybe with some convection its possible.....

#129
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 11:10 AM

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NDFD snow map

 

 

ndfd_snow_iowa_9.png



#130
Money

Posted 22 March 2018 - 11:17 AM

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Max snow will probably be 4-6/5-7 from this

#131
Hawkeye

Posted 22 March 2018 - 11:25 AM

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Forget my last post (2:13pm, now deleted).  I just realized I made an error with the timing and was off by 6 hours.  The timing is actually pretty decent, with the best snow falling in the six-hour period from about 9z to 15z.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#132
Geos

Posted 22 March 2018 - 11:56 AM

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Looks like this system will be keeping its snow southwest of the Chicago metro largely, except for maybe areas like Joliet. Models seem to be zeroing in the area where the watches are now up. Will still be fun to watch how it unfolds. 


  • iFred likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#133
Hawkeye

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:04 PM

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12z Euro ensemble mean remained nearly the same.

 

Attached File  eps_acc_snow_greatlakes_72.png   177.03KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#134
Iowawx

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:13 PM

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I’m not sure how much snow to expect in Cedar Rapids. Models say I’m in a good spot, but a lot of things will have to come together for this to happen.
  • Hawkeye likes this

#135
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:20 PM

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NAM shifted even further northeast.  It seems like every storm goes this way. 



#136
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:26 PM

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NAM

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#137
Geos

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:30 PM

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18z NAM would really through a monkey wrench into things if that came true.

 

How has the EURO been doing with systems in the Midwest this winter?


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#138
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:33 PM

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No one should trust the NAM. Ever.
  • bud2380 and snowstorm83 like this

#139
Tony

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:52 PM

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18z NAM would really through a monkey wrench into things if that came true.

 

How has the EURO been doing with systems in the Midwest this winter?

Track seems the same but precip field has expanded farther northeast. Who knows

Look out Money... Nam heading your way



#140
Tony

Posted 22 March 2018 - 12:58 PM

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18z NAM would really through a monkey wrench into things if that came true.

 

How has the EURO been doing with systems in the Midwest this winter?

To tell you the truth, all models have been in dire straits and could not pinpoint where any one was better than the other. It's been a "toss of the coin" model watching winter where it has mostly come down to watching the radar.



#141
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:18 PM

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From MPX:
there will be a strong gradient where the heavy snow
falls, and where little snow occurs on the northeast side of the
storm track. This tight gradient has been discussed over the past
day or so and no question that this gradient will occur. The main
question is where does this gradient occur? Due to the proximity
of where this tight gradient will occur is also a great concern.
At this time, the tight gradient will occur over the Twin Cities
Metro area.... Based on the latest information, the eastern side of the Twin
Cities may only receive a dusting, where the western side of the
cities, could receive up to a foot of snow.

#142
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:20 PM

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Wow, that is one massive gradient.  

 

 

From MPX:
there will be a strong gradient where the heavy snow
falls, and where little snow occurs on the northeast side of the
storm track. This tight gradient has been discussed over the past
day or so and no question that this gradient will occur. The main
question is where does this gradient occur? Due to the proximity
of where this tight gradient will occur is also a great concern.
At this time, the tight gradient will occur over the Twin Cities
Metro area.... Based on the latest information, the eastern side of the Twin
Cities may only receive a dusting, where the western side of the
cities, could receive up to a foot of snow.


  • Geos likes this

#143
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:30 PM

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updated DMX graphic, actually lowered the written totals, even though the map is basically the same from this morning.  

 

 

Tab2FileL.png?24eb2a52e36bdd4118e1fafa74



#144
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:32 PM

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RGEM - talk about a gradient.  18.5" in CR 2" in Iowa City.  If this happens, i'm heading to my brothers in CR.

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#145
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:40 PM

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Wow, that is one massive gradient.

Seriously. The dry air on the eastern side is going to be a beast. The snow should hit a brick wall around the WI\MN border and not advance any further.

18z ICON takes a jump north FWIW. Just to keep it interesting. 18z GFS looks like a tick south.

#146
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:48 PM

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yep, GFS came back south, at least in Iowa with that southern edge.  It's just gonna be a nowcast event and where that line sets up.  Frequently in events like this the heaviest snow ends up being within 15-20 miles of that gradient.  So I could be jackpot or rain.  



#147
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:50 PM

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GFS now has my county with the heaviest axis in Iowa.  10:1 just for fun

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png



#148
Tony

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:51 PM

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My call is under 1" for my area unless the NAM continues to throw precip farther north.



#149
hlcater

Posted 22 March 2018 - 01:54 PM

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It would be nice just to get one of those massive winter storms of old where minute 1 county shifts didn't equate the difference between 2" and 10"


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#150
bud2380

Posted 22 March 2018 - 02:11 PM

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I definitely like seeing the GFS moving closer to the Euro.  I think it would be cool to get a big storm this late in the season.  I personally can't remember a large storm after Spring officially began.