Jump to content

March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!


Madtown

Recommended Posts

Hope this thing can bulk up a bit and spread more snow to the north. I'm going to be so ecstatic if I end my snowboarding season in fresh snow, then Tuesday we get half an inch of rain in the 50s to burn off all the ice on the lake. 52 and sunny, that lake is calling my name thursday and friday. Though that cold water is rough when you jump in, you can't breath for a while.

 

It's holding together a lot better than I thought it would.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd rather be on the northern end of the snow maps than on the southern end.  If this system is as strong as progged, then I'd say there is room for a tick north.  This system has that feel of a juiced up Alberta-like clipper in late March!

I'll take a slight bump north on each run starting with the 18z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DVN at least admitting they won't know how much snow will fall until it's basically falling.  

 

 

 

As for snow amounts, the storm track and thermal profiles of the
atmosphere will be very important. Overall forcing will be quite
strong Friday night into Saturday morning so the probability is high
that a significant band of accumulating snow will develop. Where
this band sets up may not be fully known until Friday night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM kinda peters out the high amounts into IL. Still pretty good considering were past the equinox now.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_27.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models continue to be pretty darn consistent with the snow band.  Any changes on the evening runs are subtle.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest model shift this evening is actually the euro ensemble mean.  It had been northeast of the op run, centered over Dubuque, but it just jumped sw.

 

eps_acc_snow_greatlakes_78.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Model tends overnight shifted about one county south in eastern Iowa which is good news for me. Cedar Rapids seems to be firmly in the heavier swath. I’m still on the edge but getting closer. A few inches looks likely here at this point. Cedar Rapids could get 6”. Just to the east of CR is looking like the best spot for heavier snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting how bullish DVN is on the forecast with this kne. However, I think they are a tad too north given the recent model shift southward. I like where I sit for this one.

8507F6B3-C759-4E7F-A46A-4D9CFAF64ECA.png

  • Like 1

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

06z GFS with about a one county shift back to the NE here. 06z NAMs with a bump NE as well. It’s all going to depend on where the pivot sets up and the eastward progression stops. Riding the line between nothing and a few inches. If we do get precip at least the changeover from liquid to frozen should be fairly quick. Should fall at night too which will help with any accums.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM introduces a massive warm nose aloft chopping snow totals down quite a lot. NAM seems to be biased in the sense that it always seems to overdo ZR on these types of events. Especially when the snow, especially initially, is going to be induced by dynamic cooling. To have it start as rain, go to snow through this process only to go back to ZR? I guess... but I don't buy that. 

 

EDIT: By a lot I mean 0.45-0.7QPF,  so a good 3-5" of snow at least.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I’ve noticed in the last few runs is that the axis of precip is becoming more N/S oriented as opposed to NW/SE on a few of the models.

 

I've been noticing that as well.

 

 

Tropical Tidbits' 3k nam Ferrier rime correction snow map is pretty ugly for Cedar Rapids... way northeast.  My initial guess of a sloppy inch or two is still on track.

 

nam3km_asnow_ferrier_ncus_61.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the 12z NAM it shows 11” Kuchera here. On the 3km NAM it’s a complete whiff in my county. Gotta love it inside 40 hours.

 

St. Paul would be sending it’s snow removal equip 12 miles over to Minneapolis. Nasty gradient on this. Wowzers.

That's been the theme of the winter.....nasty gradients. It seemed like every storm we have gotten this year has had some crazy cut offs in totals. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The moisture is there for anyone in eastern Iowa to score big on snow totals.  The question will be how quickly does this transition to snow.  The sooner and further west this happens, the higher accumulations will be.  It's pretty much a guessing game here.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's see if the euro can hold serve with a slightly more sw solution.  I'm still not on board the CR snow train.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, wish we could get p-types from the UK, but it certainly seems to continue to advertise a further SW solution.

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

850s at the same time. - if the UK is right, then the heavy snow band would easily encompass Iowa City and Cedar Rapids and points to the east. 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_042_0850.gif

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_048_0850.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upon looking at QPF maps on the NAM, the main axis of precip barely moved. What happened is that a lot of the precip in the CR/IC area falls as ZR, which cuts at least 3-4 inches into the accum snowfall there. As I said earlier, the NAM always seems to be a champion of ZR/IP in marginal temp precip events. I

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...