March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!

[Hawkeye]

12z UK total precip

 

[bud2380]

UK barely has any precip for Dubuque, which is where the higher totals are on the GFS & NAM.  

[snowman1]

You guys in E IA are in for a sweet storm. Who’s pulling an all nighter? Lol. Some posters in N/C IL are also going to cash in Bigly from this one.

 

I don't know about an all-nighter, but I'm thinking of maybe setting the alarm clock to get up early Sat. morning. Looks good as of now, but I'm still trying to not jinx it!

[bud2380]

I still think the Euro performs best in these situations, i'm hoping it does again.  

[bud2380]

Euro is even further south than 00z run. Looks similar to UK and Canadian. It’s American models vs the world right now

[Hawkeye]

The euro has also weakened the system a bit, perhaps helping to keep the warm surge in check and allow a farther sw rain/snow line.  The max qpf has fallen from ~1.5" to ~1.2".

 

The snow band looks better for CR than on other models, but the best ratios should still be in the ne half of the band where it'll be a couple degrees colder.

 

[bud2380]

That's 4" more for Iowa City than the 00z run.  

[james1976]

Anyone buying these high totals? Maybe with some convection its possible.....

[bud2380]

NDFD snow map

 

 

http://weather.graphics/ndfd/2018032218/iowa/ndfd_snow_iowa_9.png

[Money]

Max snow will probably be 4-6/5-7 from this

[Hawkeye]

Forget my last post (2:13pm, now deleted).  I just realized I made an error with the timing and was off by 6 hours.  The timing is actually pretty decent, with the best snow falling in the six-hour period from about 9z to 15z.

[Geos]

Looks like this system will be keeping its snow southwest of the Chicago metro largely, except for maybe areas like Joliet. Models seem to be zeroing in the area where the watches are now up. Will still be fun to watch how it unfolds. 

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro ensemble mean remained nearly the same.

 

[Iowawx]

I’m not sure how much snow to expect in Cedar Rapids. Models say I’m in a good spot, but a lot of things will have to come together for this to happen.

[bud2380]

NAM shifted even further northeast.  It seems like every storm goes this way. 

[bud2380]

NAM

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018032218/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Geos]

18z NAM would really through a monkey wrench into things if that came true.

 

How has the EURO been doing with systems in the Midwest this winter?

[St Paul Storm]

No one should trust the NAM. Ever.

[Tony]

18z NAM would really through a monkey wrench into things if that came true.

 

How has the EURO been doing with systems in the Midwest this winter?

Track seems the same but precip field has expanded farther northeast. Who knows

Look out Money... Nam heading your way

[Tony]

18z NAM would really through a monkey wrench into things if that came true.

 

How has the EURO been doing with systems in the Midwest this winter?

To tell you the truth, all models have been in dire straits and could not pinpoint where any one was better than the other. It's been a "toss of the coin" model watching winter where it has mostly come down to watching the radar.

[St Paul Storm]

From MPX:

there will be a strong gradient where the heavy snow

falls, and where little snow occurs on the northeast side of the

storm track. This tight gradient has been discussed over the past

day or so and no question that this gradient will occur. The main

question is where does this gradient occur? Due to the proximity

of where this tight gradient will occur is also a great concern.

At this time, the tight gradient will occur over the Twin Cities

Metro area.... Based on the latest information, the eastern side of the Twin

Cities may only receive a dusting, where the western side of the

cities, could receive up to a foot of snow.

[bud2380]

Wow, that is one massive gradient.  

 

 

From MPX:
there will be a strong gradient where the heavy snow
falls, and where little snow occurs on the northeast side of the
storm track. This tight gradient has been discussed over the past
day or so and no question that this gradient will occur. The main
question is where does this gradient occur? Due to the proximity
of where this tight gradient will occur is also a great concern.
At this time, the tight gradient will occur over the Twin Cities
Metro area.... Based on the latest information, the eastern side of the Twin
Cities may only receive a dusting, where the western side of the
cities, could receive up to a foot of snow.

[bud2380]

updated DMX graphic, actually lowered the written totals, even though the map is basically the same from this morning.  

 

 

[bud2380]

RGEM - talk about a gradient.  18.5" in CR 2" in Iowa City.  If this happens, i'm heading to my brothers in CR.

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018032218/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[St Paul Storm]

Wow, that is one massive gradient.

 

Seriously. The dry air on the eastern side is going to be a beast. The snow should hit a brick wall around the WI\MN border and not advance any further.

 

18z ICON takes a jump north FWIW. Just to keep it interesting. 18z GFS looks like a tick south.

[bud2380]

yep, GFS came back south, at least in Iowa with that southern edge.  It's just gonna be a nowcast event and where that line sets up.  Frequently in events like this the heaviest snow ends up being within 15-20 miles of that gradient.  So I could be jackpot or rain.  

[bud2380]

GFS now has my county with the heaviest axis in Iowa.  10:1 just for fun

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032218/048/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

[Tony]

My call is under 1" for my area unless the NAM continues to throw precip farther north.

[hlcater]

It would be nice just to get one of those massive winter storms of old where minute 1 county shifts didn't equate the difference between 2" and 10"

[bud2380]

I definitely like seeing the GFS moving closer to the Euro.  I think it would be cool to get a big storm this late in the season.  I personally can't remember a large storm after Spring officially began.  

[bud2380]

DVN graphic also lowering totals.  They are clearly getting cold feet here.

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Total crapshoot at this point. Could get 0”, could get 6+”. Nowcast in full effect tomorrow night.

[Madtown]

Never would have thought 20in below average this year was on the table but holy hell there it is. Enjoy IA!

[hlcater]

lol @ the 00z NAM. It's back south a bit and with a special surprise

[Hawkeye]

12k nam ... Over the last four runs, MSP has gone from 2" to 11" and now back to 2".  Meanwhile, a narrow area just south of Dubuque has been hit good by just about every model run for the last few days.

 

[bud2380]

The NAM is still showing a ton of ice. Which proves how stupid it is because thermal profiles are not supportive of ice at all.

[Hawkeye]

The NAM is still showing a ton of ice. Which proves how stupid it is because thermal profiles are not supportive of ice at all.

 

Yeah, DVN mentioned that this afternoon.  The nam has the narrow pink band of mixed precip tracking along a line through Cedar Rapids for several hours.  If the model is even slightly overdoing the warm nose, that could be heavy snow.  Or... it actually is a back-and-forth sputtery rain/snow mix or even all rain, which would drop CR into the sloppy inch or two range.

[St Paul Storm]

0z 3k NAM shows 0” here and 9.5” less than 10 miles away. So close yet so far away. Watching the radar tomorrow night should be interesting.

[hlcater]

Interesting cross section from tropicaltidbits visualizing exactly what is at fault for the extreme cutoff on the NE edge.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Watches upgraded to warnings to the west of the TC. Minneapolis still in the watch. Nothing for St Paul. 2-5” in the point, for now.