California Weather/ Climate

March 9, 2014

There is, sort of, an inferiority complex among weather aficionados/ nerds in California compared to other areas of the U.S. This past winter is an example and the enthusiasm for talking about the weather seems to be at an all-time low.

How about some cold nights?

Steve Johnson -Fresno 3/8/14

Long Range-Fantasyland Forecast; High Pressure remains dominant over the region thru Mon, Mar 17^th, with a mini-heatwave possible on Sun, Mar 15^th and Mon, Mar 16^thas the High Pressure intensifies to a 582dm strength. On the 17^tha cold trough moves thru the PACNW and NORCAL, while at the same time the High Pressure ridge retrogrades westward to a position at 150W. This allows the downwind eastern flank of the ridge to produce a colder trough which begins digging further south along the West Coast. By Wed, Mar 19^th the High Pressure ridge has built northward into the ARCTIC region along the Alaska/Yukon border with the downwind flank pouring ARCTIC air due south thru western Canada, then offshore near Vancouver, BC, then onshore at Cape Mendocino on a NW to SE alignment. The short trajectory over water from Vancouver, BC to Cape Mendocino helps to modify the airmass slightly and add some moisture. The 500mb temps aloft drop from -15° during Wednesday to -30°Covernight over Fresno as cold air advection arrives with a cyclonic flow producing some precip for the Southern Sierra with extremely low snowlevels. Not expecting very much in the way of quantity and most of the precip will be in the higher elevations. On Thu, Mar 20^th the High Pressure tilts NE into northern Canada which locks the cold trough over the West Coast into place as the cold front pushes into SOCAL. Cold air continues to advect along the same pathway into CA, with the very short water trajectory slightly modifying the airmass before it arrives into CA…thankfully. If the water trajectory were not involved, temps would be much colder at the surface. On Fri, Mar 21^st the High Pressure ridge offshore weakens slightly, as the cold trough over the WCONUS remains stationary with the cold backside continuing the NNE flow pattern into CA. The trough moves slightly onshore, which removes the water trajectory and thus the moisture content for the atmosphere, so precip becomes minimal. The cold front retracts northward into the Tehachapi Mts with renewed low elevation snowfall. On Sun, Mar 22^ndboth the ridge and trough weaken, but remain in place, with a continued NNE flow pattern which advects a cold and much drier airmass into CA. NOT GOOD! Overnight on the 22^nd could produce very cold temps in the SJV, with a possible HARD FREEZE Event as charts show temps dipping as low as 28° to 32°

Utrex · March 10, 2014

Did you type that out Happ, or where was it from? I like following pro met bloggers.

March 10, 2014

Did you type that out Happ, or where was it from? I like following pro met bloggers.

Here's Steve's email address. He and another met put out a daily forecast with emphasis on the Central Valley.

sjassoc@yahoo.com,

Warm day for the LA marathon w/ some of the warmest readings down at the beach where it ended. [88F Santa Monica],

Hi: 87

Lo: 61

March 11, 2014

Dry and warm this week though several inches were recorded in North Coast [Humboldt/ Mendocino] since last night.

SQUAW VALLEY [8K FT]: 35 / 28

DEATH VALLEY [-194']: 88 / 57

H: 82

L: 59

March 12, 2014

High and dry across California today and cooler, overall for a while. No rain other than 0.39 over past 24 hours in Weaverville in extreme northern California.

SQUAW VALLEY [8000']: 27 / 20

DEATH VALLEY [-194']: 81 / 61

BORREGO SPRINGS: 84°

Hi: 78°

Lo: 56°

March 13, 2014

Surprised by scattered clouds on the satellite over Santa Barbara county this afternoon due to upper low that could provide outside chance of showers tomorrow. Day started very windy offshore that turned onshore later in the afternoon; possible marine surge overnight.

Low elevation temps were remarkably uniform across the state with some of the warmest readings around the Bay Area.

SQUAW VALLEY [8000']: 37 / 21

DEATH VALLEY [-194']: 80 / 59

SANTA CRUZ: 82°

H: 80

L: 54

Dan the Weatherman · March 13, 2014

Surprised by scattered clouds on the satellite over Santa Barbara county this afternoon due to upper low that could provide outside chance of showers tomorrow. Day started very windy offshore that turned onshore later in the afternoon; possible marine surge overnight.

Low elevation temps were remarkably uniform across the state with some of the warmest readings around the Bay Area.

SQUAW VALLEY [8000']: 37 / 21
DEATH VALLEY [-194']: 80 / 59

SANTA CRUZ: 82°

H: 80
L: 54

I think the upper low moved more north and west of where it was originally forecast, which caused to Santa Anas to end earlier than previously thought and switched the flow back onshore late this afternoon. When I was out and about this afternoon, I noticed a wind shift to the southeast and actually saw marine layer cloudiness toward the coast from here in Orange and realized that the flow had switched back to onshore.

March 13, 2014

Visible satellite showing a good amount of cumulus/altocumulus & small vortices; could rain between Vegas and Phoenix today. Even a bit of stratus earlier this morning

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_1km&list=VIS1LAX.GIF.3.jpg,VIS1LAX.GIF.4.jpg,VIS1LAX.GIF.5.jpg,VIS1LAX.GIF.6.jpg,VIS1LAX.GIF.7.jpg,VIS1LAX.GIF.8.jpg

lo: 57

March 14, 2014

Other than a few build-ups over the San Gabriel's the upper low was dry; I didn't find rainfall data anywhere in the Southwest today. But these dry fronts do usher in cooler air so minimums might be cooler tonight if stratus doesn't develop. Temps were fairly uniform again across California [north to south].

Squaw Valley [8000']: 49 / 26

Death Valley [-194']: 87 / 54

H: 73

L: 57

March 15, 2014

Windy and fairly warm through the weekend; may reach 90° inland by Sunday.

Squaw Valley [8000']: 44 / 35

Death Valley [-194']: 90 / 56

H: 76

L: 52

Dan the Weatherman · March 15, 2014

Windy and fairly warm through the weekend; may reach 90° inland by Sunday.

Squaw Valley [8000']: 44 / 35
Death Valley [-194']: 90 / 56

H: 76
L: 52

Looks like highs in the 80's here tomorrow in inland Orange County, but like you said, it could very well approach 90 further inland, especially on Sunday.

It needs to get colder up at Squaw Valley, especially at night, because the above freezing temperatures are going to lead to melting of the snow pack of what there is of it before we even get into the warm season.

March 15, 2014

A winter to forget. Aside from two storms in late Feb/early March, there were no periods of sustained rainfall in Southern California. Ever-present sun, rare and brief periods of troughing, nocturnal offshore winds produced above normal temps and record-setting days of drought.

December 2013

Max: 71.3/ Norm: 70

Min: 52.0/ Norm: 49

Mean: 61.6/ Norm: 59

Extremes: 87 / 41

Rainfall: 0.52 [rain year: 1.34]

Days of rain: 2

January

Max: 76.3/ Norm: 69

Min: 56.3/ Norm: 50

Mean: 66.3/ 59

Extremes: 90 / 51

Rainfall: 0.03 [year: 1.37]

Days of rain: 1

February

Max: 72.3/ Norm: 70

Min: 53.7/ Norm: 51

Mean: 63.0/ Norm: 60

Extremes: 87 / 47

Rainfall: 3.45 [year: 4.82]

Rain days: 3

March 16, 2014

Fairly warm day across the state; more of the same tomorrow.

Squaw Valley [8000']: 54 / 28

Death Valley [-194']: 92 / 58

Locally: Yorba Linda: 90

Lake Forest: 92

H: 85

L: 54

Dan the Weatherman · March 16, 2014

A winter to forget. Aside from two storms in late Feb/early March, there were no periods of sustained rainfall in Southern California. Ever-present sun, rare and brief periods of troughing, nocturnal offshore winds produced above normal temps and record-setting days of drought.

December 2013

Max: 71.3/ Norm: 70
Min: 52.0/ Norm: 49
Mean: 61.6/ Norm: 59
Extremes: 87 / 41
Rainfall: 0.52 [rain year: 1.34]
Days of rain: 2

January
Max: 76.3/ Norm: 69
Min: 56.3/ Norm: 50
Mean: 66.3/ 59
Extremes: 90 / 51
Rainfall: 0.03 [year: 1.37]
Days of rain: 1

February
Max: 72.3/ Norm: 70
Min: 53.7/ Norm: 51
Mean: 63.0/ Norm: 60
Extremes: 87 / 47
Rainfall: 3.45 [year: 4.82]
Rain days: 3

This has definitely been a winter to forget in Socal with all the warm and dry weather we have had. Something is limiting the variability of the weather patterns in recent years because once a pattern gets into a rut, it can't seem to change to something different and just simply reverts back to the dominant pattern in a matter of just a couple of days. The ever-present eastern trough and western ridge of this winter is a prime example of what I am talking about.

March 16, 2014

I think this has been the warmest winter historically though can not verify. Looking at data over the past 30 years, I found individual winter months that have been "hot". Jan 2003 [Max: 76/ Min: 57] but only a few other years w/ all 3 months above 70°. In foothill areas total minimums below 50°: 18 nights. A "cold" spell in early December produced minimums into the 30's in the valleys.

Because of the miracle rains in late Feb/ early March, the drought is apparently the 24th worst for metro LA.

Aside from the early March rains/ cool temps the month has been warmer than normal. Case in point 7am temps [Getty Center: 72\ San Rafael Hills: 71\ Whittier Hill: 70].

L: 63

March 17, 2014

The warmest readings in the U.S. were in California [including Puerto Rico and Hawaii]. Lots of 90+ maximums. The warmest day at my location since November 14. Looking forward to some cooler marine air this week.

Squaw Valley [8000']: 49 / 36

Death Valley [-194']: 94 / 59

Miramar [metro San Diego}: 94°

H: 92

L: 63

March 18, 2014

Squaw Valley [8000']: 42 / 27

Death Valley [-194']: missing

Imperial: 94

H: 78

L: 60

Dan the Weatherman · March 18, 2014

It was quite a bit cooler here in Orange than it was yesterday, thanks to onshore flow and weaker high pressure aloft. It is nearly 10 degrees cooler tonight than it was at this time last night.

March 19, 2014

Weak troughs and weak ridges means no rainfall anywhere in California today and mild temps from north to south.

Squaw Valley [8000']: 40 / 21

Death Valley [-194']: 79 / 61

CORONA: 83°

H: 80

L: 55

March 20, 2014

Pretty much a carbon copy of yesterday; sunny no rain across the state. Temps, again very uniform [mainly 70's] throughout California

Squaw Valley [8000']: 44 / 21

Death Valley [-194']: 81 / 56

Riverside: 85

H: 80

L: 55

March 21, 2014

Should finally see a pattern shift as weak lows move thru SoCal, Something of a marine layer is forming over Santa Monica bay and that should strengthen big time over the weekend. Models keep flipping on possible rain next week, at least down here.

Squaw Valley: 41 / 32

Death Valley: 84 / 58

Thermal: 85°

H: 76

L: 55

March 22, 2014

I've noted that maximum temps have been in sync from north to sound for several weeks. Today was in the 60/70's from the Bay Area to San Diego; 80's Central Valley/ desert. Coolest day since 3/4/14 many areas.

Squaw Valley: 42 / 28

Death Valley: 88 / 58

H: 69

L: 54

March 23, 2014

Onshore flow is strong: morning clouds/ partly cloudy; temps seasonably cool/ pleasant.

Squaw Valley: 47 / 24

Death Valley: 90 / 57

H: 68

L: 55

Dan the Weatherman · March 23, 2014

It was cool here with marine layer clouds until it cleared up in mid-late afternoon. There is a chance of some light rain on Wednesday, and tonight's San Diego NWS AFD is mentioning that some models are indicating a trough in the west for the following week. Maybe we will see a few storms before the end of the rainy season after all.

March 23, 2014

Hit & miss stratus this morning; dewpoints above 50 under trough of low pressure. I've read some encouraging discussions on possible rainfall this week but not under the best conditions.

SoCal water temps: 60-67 [except outer channel islands] have been above normal for several months.

richard mann · March 23, 2014

March 24, 2014

Relatively cool day for late March near the coast but mild/ warm inland; no rainfall reported.

Squaw Valley: 47 / 24

Death Valley: 93 / 62

H: 73

L: 51

Dan the Weatherman · March 24, 2014

It was a nice day for getting some yard work done. I am looking forward to the rain forecast for Wednesday, even if it doesn't amount to a whole lot.

March 25, 2014

Cool along the coast from Crescent City to San Diego; warm in Central Valley/ desert. No rain except: WEAVERVILLE: 75 / 28 / 0.02

Squaw Valley: 51 / 29

Death Valley: 96 / 62

Mecca/ Thermal: 93

H: 70

L: 57

March 26, 2014

Cloudy and cool west of the coastal mountains. One of the coolest days this month down here. Nice to see up to nearly an inch of rainfall along the North Coast [Del Norte to Sonoma counties]; less in Sacramento Valley. These fronts are traveling many miles from the core system off British Columbia and look like they will dissipate in SoCal; hope we get some rainfall over the next 5-7 days.

SQUAW VALLEY: 38 / 30

DEATH VALLEY: 96 / 57

OCOTILLO WELLS: 93 / 67

Hi: 64

L: 58

March 27, 2014

24-hour totals for rainfall were modest throughout the state but the window is open for more systems to reach California over the next 4-5 days. NWS_Eureka issued a hydrologic outlook for up to 2-4 inches:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=eka&wwa=hydrologic

Squaw Valley [8000']: 28 / 19

Death Valley [-192']: missing / 62

Borrego Springs: 86 / 60

Hi: 65

Lo: 55

Rain: 0.03

March: 0.94

Year [jul-jun]: 5.76

March 28, 2014

In between systems for a day or two ending the month on a wet note, especially in Northern California. Several stations reported over an inch along the North Coast; even Sacramento Valley did fairly well [Chico: 0.80]. Cool day [60's-70's] statewide.

Squaw Valley: 28 / 21 [below freezing for 48 hours]

Death Valley: 80 / 58

H: 69

L: 51

Dan the Weatherman · March 28, 2014

Brian Allegretto of The Tahoe Daily Snow (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe) mentioned that the ski resorts on the west side of Lake Tahoe received anywhere from 13-21", while those on the east side received 6-11" of snow with this last storm. At least the Sierras are getting some snow at this point and more is forecast over the next few days.

There were a couple of tornadoes and/or funnel clouds in the Sacramento area yesterday. I believe there was even a supercell thunderstorm with a tornado up in that area somewhere, but I can't remember exactly where.

March 28, 2014

The encouraging news is that the pattern of entrenched high pressure has been interrupted by troughs. The month of April is normally considerably drier than March but storms can and do penetrate even SoCal.

March 29, 2014

It's great to end the month on a wet note even if most of the rain occurs in northern California maybe several feet of snow in Sierras.

Fri: 72/ 52

L: 55

Utrex · March 29, 2014

Absolute thunderstorms across portions of Central/Northern California valleys today afternoon-evening. We may see a few rotating, but I have doubts as well. There may be a few strong pulse thunderstorms, and maybe even a multi-cell cluster may form.

March 30, 2014

A tornado warning still in effect near Chico this evening. Nearby Paradise had nearly 3 inches of rain today; some coastal mountains areas north of San Francisco recorded over 3 inches. Looks like the storm will weaken considerably as the front moves south of Pt Conception.

Squaw Valley: 31 / 27

Death Valley: 93 / 58

H: 80

L: 55

TheBigOne · March 30, 2014

Hi. I was born in the Chico California area wishing to know how the weather has been down there from the reports it looks like they are playing catch up on rainfall totals so are they having any thunderstorms yet with lightning? http://www.smileyvault.com/albums/merv/lightning.gif

richard mann · March 30, 2014

-
hey "The Big One".

Regarding your main question asked here above, ...

I'd say, that even where looking at things more state-wide, we're getting just about as much rain as could have been hoped for more realistically about a month ago.

— A later Spring, having been the main best hope more general at that point. And with that appearing to be what we've gotten, at least to this point.

Beyond this, the more significant levels of instability from Sacramento northward both Friday behind the main front that had moved through Thursday, and then again today behind the wider front having begun to move in later Friday evening and in fact still moving through some areas this evening, have been what's lead to the different incidences of Thunder and Lightning more widespread. Even some amount of more minor Tornadic activity. Both, both Friday and today.

March 31, 2014

Not a whole lot of rain anywhere in California over the past 24-hours but close to an inch in places especially northern California. More systems should make this a fairly wet week, I hope.

Squaw Valley: 27 / 18

Death Valley: 85 / 64

H: 74

L: 56

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