California Weather/ Climate

[Dan the Weatherman]

It was pretty humid overnight; still high dew point temps this morning

 

10AM

PASADENA     81  68  65 E2

I also noticed that the humidity was higher last night here in Orange than during the last few nights.

[Guest happ]

August was spot on for average temps; just a tad higher than normal at other metro weather stations.  August had 2 fairly deep troughs that pushed temps down; heat waves were not extreme by any means.  Definitely more humid than other years but only had to run AC all night a few times.   Rainfall was inconsequential which is normal however some good showers within 50 miles and record rain at nearby Mt San Antonio/ Mt Baldy one day

 

August Data

 

Aver Max: 89.8 [Norm: 89

Aver Min: 66.6 [Norm: 66

Aver Mean: 78.2

 

Hi Max: 97

Lo Max: 82

Hi Min: 76

Lo Min: 61

 

Rain: 0.07

Total [jul-jun]: 0.07

[Guest happ]

Hurricane Norbert's path could bring moisture into California this weekend, per NWS_LA

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REALLY GOES DOWNHILL FAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 
  THE EC KEEP THE SHARP TROF OVERHEAD...WHILE THE GFS MOVES A VERY 
  BROAD FLAT RIDGE OVERHEAD. BOTH HAVE VERY DIFFERENT IDEAS ABOUT THE 
  PATH OF NORBERT. THE GFS LETS IT SLOWLY DIE OVER THE WATER WHILE THE 
  EC MOVES IT IN THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND REALLY DUMPS RAIN DOWN ON 
  IMPERIAL COUNTY. IT WOULD REALLY BE A MISTAKE TO MAKE ANY BETS ON 
  THIS FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL TILT A LITTLE TOWARDS THE COOLER EC AND 
  BRING IN SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
 

[Guest happ]

Maximum below 90° in over an week per a weak trough.

 

SOUTH LK TAHOE  :  81 /  40

DEATH VALLEY  :  115 /  85

 

86 / 68

[Black Hole]

Last three runs of the GFS take Norbert into So Cal. That could be an interesting storm to watch!

[Dan the Weatherman]

Last three runs of the GFS take Norbert into So Cal. That could be an interesting storm to watch!

I hope we get some rains from the remnants of Norbert as it has been quite a while since we have received any widespread significant rain from the remnants of a tropical system, especially in my area. This could be quite an interesting event if it comes to pass and I will be watching the forecasts closely over the next several days. Here is the latest from tonight's AFD out of San Diego:

 

A BIT FURTHER OUT...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT (NOW THE 9TH EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE THIS SEASON) WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS NORBERT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A POSITION 200 MILES SSW OF SAN DIEGO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY TO BRINGING THE INITIAL LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE DETERMINISTIC ECM WHICH WAS NOT AS GUNG HO AS THE GFS NOW HAS A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OVER SAN DIEGO BY 12Z MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT...OF COURSE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

 

The good news is that the models are coming into better agreement on the event. The best chance is of course over the mountains, but there is a good chance of showers / t-storms west of the mountains as well.

[Dan the Weatherman]

On tonight's Hourly Weather Roundup, San Diego Bay is reporting a SST of 77 degrees! I don't know if I have ever seen that high of a water temperature in Socal. A couple of other locations, Oceanside and Torrey Pines are reporting a SST of 75 degrees.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Wow!

 

I hope that TS brings some much needed rain your way.

I hope so, too, and I will certainly be reporting it on here whatever ultimately happens.

 

It has been noticeably more humid here in coastal and inland coastal Socal this summer, and that usually happens when the offshore SSTs are warmer than average, but it can be humid at times during a summer when SSTs are near normal when the air flow is coming from a more tropical region, such as with the monsoonal flow from the southeast.

[Alan]

Make that 4 runs of the GFS.

 

SD AFD this morning is a tease and does mention Orange County Dan!

[Black Hole]

GFS starting to look much less gung-ho than earlier, although I think that was a given. Still showing moisture though so that's encouraging at the same time.

[Guest happ]

On tonight's Hourly Weather Roundup, San Diego Bay is reporting a SST of 77 degrees! I don't know if I have ever seen that high of a water temperature in Socal. A couple of other locations, Oceanside and Torrey Pines are reporting a SST of 75 degrees.

 

Water temps above 80F occurred primarily at some San Diego county beaches in the summer of 2008.  I can also remember the El Nino summer of 1983 including a tropical wave that came ashore over Los Angeles; lightning strikes under mostly clear skies that quickly developed into frontal thundershowers and wind.   Minimum temps above 80!

[Alan]

NWS SD still confident on a moisture surge but definitely not the widespread soaker that was being hinted at yesterday.

 

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE

NORBERT WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS

AN DESERTS. THE NAM PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND

MONDAY TO MORE THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 2.3

INCHES IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

[Guest happ]

Dewpoints are on the rise w/ scattered clouds developing inland:

 

NWS_LA

12noon Readings

PALM SPRINGS MOSUNNY 96 70 42 E10 29.86F HX 102

THOUSAND PALMS N/A 93 73 51 SE7 29.82F HX 102

PALM DESERT N/A 96 75 50 SE9 N/A HX 108

THERMAL SUNNY 97 73 45 SE14 29.80F HX 107

BLYTHE SUNNY 94 69 44 SE10 29.86F HX 99

IMPERIAL AP MOSUNNY 97 73 45 SE13 29.81F HX 107

EL CENTRO NAS PTSUNNY 96 72 45 VRB5 29.81F HX 104

YUMA AZ PTSUNNY 95 70 44 S13 29.84F HX 101

MEXICALI PTSUNNY 93 72 49 SE12 29.83 HX 100

[Alan]

My DP rose from 20 this am to 41 right now - flash flood watch issued for my area Sunday morning through Monday night - hope something pops!

[Dan the Weatherman]

My DP rose from 20 this am to 41 right now - flash flood watch issued for my area Sunday morning through Monday night - hope something pops!

I am hoping to see some action this weekend as well!

[Guest happ]

My DP rose from 20 this am to 41 right now - flash flood watch issued for my area Sunday morning through Monday night - hope something pops!

 

I suppose this is a dumb question but anyone have an explanation why dew points seem to be much lower at higher elevations?  It seems sort of the opposite here with the local stations near or above 1000' [san Rafael Hills, Whittier Hill, Pasadena] recording the highest dew points compared to lower elevations yet at your elevation [over 4000'] the reverse is true.

 

91 / 65

[Alan]

Would it have anything to do wth lower pressure - 'thinner air'? Or with cooler air temperatures at higher elevations?

[Black Hole]

The dew point will generally drop with height because water drops off very quickly with height. It does so faster relatively than other molecules in the air will.

 

It is highly variable and so there are exceptions to this at pretty much any time. It is effected by several factors local to an area as well such as the amount of vegetation. So forested areas or areas with more marine air will usually see a higher dew point than a desert area.

 

Hope that helps.

[Guest happ]

Norberto is a 3 category hurricane

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-vis.html

[Guest happ]

Limited monsoon showers were restricted to coastal mountains [san Diego county] ahead of the tropical surge from dying hurricane Norbert tomorrow.  Heat advisory in San Gabriel valley today though only a few locations hit 100 but dewpoints were well into the 60's & 70's esp in lower desert.  Hope to get into some rainfall tomorrow.

 

Campo 0.22

 

SOUTH LK TAHOE  :  82 /  37

DEATH VALLEY  :  115 /  80

 

98 / 68

[Dan the Weatherman]

Limited monsoon showers were restricted to coastal mountains [san Diego county] ahead of the tropical surge from dying hurricane Norbert tomorrow.  Heat advisory in San Gabriel valley today though only a few locations hit 100 but dewpoints were well into the 60's & 70's esp in lower desert.  Hope to get into some rainfall tomorrow.

 

Campo 0.22

 

SOUTH LK TAHOE  :  82 /  37

DEATH VALLEY  :  115 /  80

 

98 / 68

I am certainly hoping to see some action here tomorrow as well. There is a 40% chance of showers / t-storms here in Orange County tomorrow afternoon and evening, decreasing to a 20% chance on Monday. There were a few buildups toward the mountains today with a few showers / t-storms, but the main action will arrive tomorrow for all areas.

[Guest happ]

Dew points are comfortable in metro LA [PASADENA PTSUNNY     97  63  32    HX  98] compared to readings to the south.          

 

1PM

 
NATIONAL CITY     82  73  75                  
CHULA VISTA       80  73  77                  
IMPERIAL BEACH SUNNY   79  71  76
OCEANSIDE HBR    77  72  85                  
VISTA    91  67  45                  
DEL MAR    79  72  78                  
ESCONDIDO    97  68  39  HX 101          
HUNTINGTON BCH   81  71  71          

RIVERSIDE AP   LGT RAIN  85  69  58              
RIV CYN CREST  95  72  47 HX 103          
PALM SPRINGS   RAIN      83  74  74                  
THOUSAND PALMS    92  73  53  HX  99          
PALM DESERT   92  74  54  HX 102          
THERMAL  LGT RAIN  84  79  85  HX  96          
IMPERIAL AP    SUNNY     95  72  47  HX 103          
 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Quite a bit of action going on in the Inland Empire and mountain / desert areas, but of course no action in Orange County.

 

Northern O.C. has become a dead zone for weather for some reason it seems as of late. It is as if the region is not capable of producing exciting weather anymore! I do know that it is summer and coastal O.C. doesn't get in on the action all that often during the summer months, but this phenomenon of my area not getting much action has been occurring during the winter and spring months as well during the last couple of years, which is the reason for all my complaining about missing out on the excitement.

[Guest happ]

Also a big nothing in Los Angeles county aside from some thunderstorms in the Mojave desert.  It seems the air actually dried out a little today compared to yesterday; perhaps a slight offshore wind.  Plenty hot w/ some nice build-ups over the San Gabriel mts but no rain unlike areas further inland. 

SAN BERNARDINO    97 /  76 /  1.31
RIVERSIDE    97 /  70 /  1.32
HEMET     93 /  68 /  2.88

PINE COVE   77 /  59 /  1.63

 

100 / 71

 

[Guest happ]

Finally seeing at least brief showers across the LA Basin this morning w/ the usual rear-end collisions on the freeway due to slick roads. A moderate shower was occurring at my house when I left for work and some heavy showers just ended when I arrived in Rancho Dominguez. Hope for more today though the flash flood warnings are for areas east of Los Angeles [inland Empire/ Coachella Valley/ mountains].

[Dan the Weatherman]

It finally rained a bit in northern Orange County for a change and even rained here in Orange a bit sometime earlier this morning.

[Guest happ]

Despite showers this morning, totals were unimpressive but not in Arizona.  Phoenix recorded a 24-hour record 3.29 & an East Mesa [suburb] a remarkable 4.26

 

PASADENA  :  88 /  70 /  0.15
INDIO :   94 /  75 /  0.34

 

89 / 72

0.03
 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Despite showers this morning, totals were unimpressive but not in Arizona.  Phoenix recorded a 24-hour record 3.29 & an East Mesa [suburb] a remarkable 4.26

 

PASADENA  :  88 /  70 /  0.15

INDIO :   94 /  75 /  0.34

 

89 / 72

0.03

 

That is a ton of rain at one time for a desert location, and I would say that the totals from those two locations are probably between 1/3 and 1/2 of their average yearly rainfall. That just shows how much moisture is contained in a tropical airmass such as the one we are currently experiencing. Flooding closed at least one segment of I-10 in the greater Phoenix area for a time earlier today, and I even heard that there was some damage from flooding on a portion of I-15 somewhere around or in Las Vegas.

 

My area here in Orange received only a trace of rainfall from some light rain early Monday morning. I would have to check my rainfall totals, but I wouldn't be surprised if East Mesa picked up more rain from this storm than my area saw for the entire 2013-14 season!

[Guest happ]

That is a ton of rain at one time for a desert location, and I would say that the totals from those two locations are probably between 1/3 and 1/2 of their average yearly rainfall. That just shows how much moisture is contained in a tropical airmass such as the one we are currently experiencing. Flooding closed at least one segment of I-10 in the greater Phoenix area for a time earlier today, and I even heard that there was some damage from flooding on a portion of I-15 somewhere around or in Las Vegas.

 

My area here in Orange received only a trace of rainfall from some light rain early Monday morning. I would have to check my rainfall totals, but I wouldn't be surprised if East Mesa picked up more rain from this storm than my area saw for the entire 2013-14 season!

 

La Quinta [south of Palm Springs]: 3.03

 

We may have more chances for monsoonal rainfall this weekend and perhaps another developing tropical system off Baja.  The eastern Pacific is much more active than the Atlantic this year.

[Dan the Weatherman]

La Quinta [south of Palm Springs]: 3.03

 

We may have more chances for monsoonal rainfall this weekend and perhaps another developing tropical system off Baja.  The eastern Pacific is much more active than the Atlantic this year.

I cannot believe how classic of an El Nino summer we are experiencing with all the humidity, monsoon and tropical moisture, a very active tropical eastern Pacific, a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, and very warm SSTs off San Diego, yet it is still being classified as ENSO neutral because the SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region has not met the thresholds of an El Nino as of yet. This summer reminds me of other summers with developing El Nino that have been followed by wet winters, such as the summers of 1994 and 1997.

[Guest happ]

I'm eager for some more tropical systems as well but it felt great this morning w/ minimums below 70 and drier air. Unfortunately it is going to get pretty hot this weekend.

[Alan]

Due to the effects of Norbert my nighttime temps soared back into the low/mid 60's up here at 6250' - after 1/4" rain and then two solid cloudy dark drizzly days with humidity ~95% and DP within 2 degrees of the temp I was happy with a low of 54F this morning and ~35% RH.

 

Next week seems pretty iffy if we get some monsoonal intrusion with the help of Odile, not expecting anything yet but of course hoping for more rain sooner than later.

 

I'm at 1.70" since July 1st and considering my area is more miss than hit with mountain thunderstorms that's pretty good! 8 days with measurable rain.

[Guest happ]

Due to the effects of Norbert my nighttime temps soared back into the low/mid 60's up here at 6250' - after 1/4" rain and then two solid cloudy dark drizzly days with humidity ~95% and DP within 2 degrees of the temp I was happy with a low of 54F this morning and ~35% RH.

 

Next week seems pretty iffy if we get some monsoonal intrusion with the help of Odile, not expecting anything yet but of course hoping for more rain sooner than later.

 

I'm at 1.70" since July 1st and considering my area is more miss than hit with mountain thunderstorms that's pretty good! 8 days with measurable rain.

 

I'm 0.10 since July but any rain is welcome.  Recently wet soil will lower fire danger but not for long.   

 

Even Death Valley was below 70° [probably have to go back to early June for minimum that cool].  Only San Diego: 71° but forecast tonight is the same due to heights/ offshore gradient.  Autumn equinox ironically means heat in California but now is it dry heat

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE   6314' :    81 /  36

DEATH VALLEY  -194' :   111 /  68

 

95 / 65

[Dan the Weatherman]

It appears that the mountains have another shot at some monsoonal moisture late this weekend into the middle of next week. This is probably one of the last if not the last of the monsoonal intrusions for this summer, unless remnants of another tropical system affect the area later this month. Usually after mid-September, the monsoon winds down rather quickly and the air becomes drier, and the nights are noticeably cooler with the lower humidity. 

 

Last night was much less humid than it had been in recent nights here in Orange, and was much cooler and very comfortable compared with what we have had as of late.

[Guest happ]

It appears that the mountains have another shot at some monsoonal moisture late this weekend into the middle of next week. This is probably one of the last if not the last of the monsoonal intrusions for this summer, unless remnants of another tropical system affect the area later this month. Usually after mid-September, the monsoon winds down rather quickly and the air becomes drier, and the nights are noticeably cooler with the lower humidity. 

 

Last night was much less humid than it had been in recent nights here in Orange, and was much cooler and very comfortable compared with what we have had as of late.

 

I hope with the warm ocean temps that tropical systems will continue longer this year.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I hope with the warm ocean temps that tropical systems will continue longer this year.

That indeed may happen with how active the tropical Pacific has been as of late. That would increase the odds for remnant moisture of getting into our area for another few weeks, even if the flow is more southerly as opposed to SE or ESE.

[Alan]

I've never followed east pacific tropical storms - are we approaching what would be considered above average to well above average in terms of named storms?

 

NWS SD mentions Odile following similar track of Norbert and possibly affecting SoCal with an even greater moisture plume than Norbert.

 

There were isolated very strong storms and heavy rainfall with the effects of Norbert in SoCal but overall NWS overdid their forecast - two days I had 90% and 80% pops for heavy rain and neither day did it materialize to the extent forecasted. I have a feeling they are being cautious and 'over forecasting' due to the 'surprise' and tragedy that occurred in mnt baldy when 5"+ fell in a couple hours. Making sure people are well aware of the possibility of severe, life threatening and damaging rains.

[Guest happ]

I am not all that acquainted with the tropical eastern Pacific myself since most hurricanes tend to by pass California to the south and east. Arizona probably is the most vulnerable to both the monsoon and Pacific tropical cyclones. This is where the historic data from San Diego NWS helps. In terms of liability, I have attended an AMS meeting where an attorney who specializes in weather-related judicial issues spoke. I can't imagine that regional offices such as NWS_LA or NWS_SD are in danger of misforcasting or incompetence charges for tropical events since they merely follow the same models as all other NWS offices. But I do recall criticism directed to the NWS when 'santa ana' winds are under-estimated and fire damage or loss of life occurred.

 

My own observation is that southern California does often see the remnant clouds, humidity of tropical depressions each summer but rainfall is less common west of the mountains.

[Guest happ]

By the time "Odile" makes its way north and into California [if it does] we will be relieved to get some cooler temps.  The next several days may be quite uncomfortably hot. 

NWS_SD

AS WE GET INTO LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE 
  ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 
  TRACK OF ODILE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AS IT IS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA AT THAT POINT...BUT THEN THE 12Z ECMWF DIVERGES GREATLY FROM 
  THE 12Z GFS AS IT MOVES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST AND KEEPS US 
  MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS BRINGS 
  THE ODILE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 
  THIS FEATURE...AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...ALLOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE 
  TO GET BROUGHT UP OVER THE AREA...ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE GFS 
  ACTUALLY SHOWS A PLUME OF 2 INCHES AND GREATER ADVECTED INTO 
  SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH 
  THURSDAY FORECAST IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT. 

 

95 / 72

[Dan the Weatherman]

By the time "Odile" makes its way north and into California [if it does] we will be relieved to get some cooler temps.  The next several days may be quite uncomfortably hot. 

95 / 72

It certainly appears we are in for a classic September heatwave this weekend and early next week. This is quite a typical pattern for this time of year as our hottest temperatures of the summer often come in September. Hopefully after this heatwave, it begins to cool down more substantially as we get deeper into the second half of the month.