Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

April 2018 Observations and Discussion

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Tom

Posted 25 March 2018 - 03:28 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

As we approach the 2nd fastest warming month of the year, our sub forum (except for the southern Plains) is NOT going to feel like Spring but more like Winter.  Nature has decided to throw a wrench into Spring-like wx for the majority of our members.  When will this end???

 

March has been a rather wild ride for much of the nation and forecast models are suggesting another wild open to the month of April.  The latest CFSv2 weeklies show the cold open for early April standards....if you want to believe the LRC, the first 10-15 days of the month should on average stay BN.  I'm hoping for a mid-month temp rally but if the blocking is still holding strong, then expect a battle zone across our sub.  As we get deeper into April, Spring-like warmth will certainly begin to blossom in the southern Plains and eventually win out, but it will in turn turn very wet where the clash of air masses takes shape.

 

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018032500

 

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

 


  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#2
Tom

Posted 25 March 2018 - 03:44 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

CFSv2 trends...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif



#3
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 March 2018 - 04:03 AM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3441 posts
Shame it's not November 25th instead of March 25th.
  • Tom, Snowshoe and jaster220 like this

#4
bud2380

Posted 25 March 2018 - 08:44 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

I decided to get a golf membership this year, and the course opens on April 2nd.  Based on the GFS, it probably won't be opening on April 2nd.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png


  • Tom and Snowshoe like this

#5
CentralNebWeather

Posted 25 March 2018 - 08:49 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2084 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
12Z GFS hits Nebraska hard with a snowstorm next Monday-Tuesday

#6
Tom

Posted 25 March 2018 - 08:53 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
Could we be on the verge of back to back LRC cycles that produced a historic stretch of winter weather?

#7
CentralNebWeather

Posted 25 March 2018 - 08:53 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2084 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
Holy Cow GFS.Attached File  A4BD92A2-C576-4DFE-9C39-48107F2821E0.gif   75.82KB   1 downloads
  • jaster220 likes this

#8
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 March 2018 - 08:59 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)
Guess I should be talking about this here instead of the March thread. I'm not willing to believe in a storm on the 3rd quite yet. A) There's little ensemble support and B ) As far as I know, GFS is the only one showing this. We all know what happens when GFS is the only one showing a storm. Powdery snow in April would be something, though.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#9
bud2380

Posted 25 March 2018 - 09:03 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

And the Canadian.  Ok, at this point I'm truly ready for spring, this last one was fun and all, but it's time to warm up.

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_40.png


  • Hawkeye and hlcater like this

#10
hlcater

Posted 25 March 2018 - 09:06 AM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1270 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

And the Canadian.  Ok, at this point I'm truly ready for spring, this last one was fun and all, but it's time to warm up.
 
 
gem_asnow_ncus_40.png


Yup, I want some 70s now. But the first week of April isn't looking so hot. Given I don't want the snow, probably gonna get a 24" storm
  • jaster220 likes this

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#11
Tom

Posted 25 March 2018 - 09:29 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
My, oh my, the 12z GEFS are dropping the arctic hammer for the first week of April with several chances of snow!
  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#12
Tom

Posted 25 March 2018 - 09:39 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

This should be fun...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_48.png


  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#13
Tom

Posted 25 March 2018 - 09:42 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GEFS members showing some hits for the 1st system on Easter...

 

gefs_ptype_mw_168.png

 

 

gefs_ptype_mw_180.png


  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#14
bud2380

Posted 25 March 2018 - 11:35 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA
Euro also showing snow late next weekend. Ugghhhh

#15
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 March 2018 - 01:47 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

GEFS mean snowfall going into 4/4 is 4.7" for here. Anybody have access to Euro ensembles?


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#16
Hawkeye

Posted 25 March 2018 - 04:44 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1547 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

GEFS mean snowfall going into 4/4 is 4.7" for here. Anybody have access to Euro ensembles?

 

Attached File  KLNK_2018032512_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png   147.19KB   5 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#17
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 March 2018 - 04:48 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Wow. Neither of the OPs are impressive anymore but both sets of ensembles still have some rather bullish members.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#18
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 March 2018 - 07:19 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1012 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Wow. Neither of the OPs are impressive anymore but both sets of ensembles still have some rather bullish members.

It'll be back. The ensembles look decent.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#19
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 March 2018 - 07:32 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

It'll be back. The ensembles look decent.

What are you basing this off of? I think it's more likely that more and more ensemble members gradually lose a system for early next week.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#20
Tom

Posted 26 March 2018 - 03:38 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period...



#21
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 March 2018 - 03:58 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period...


North Texas snow in April? That'd be a record.
  • jaster220 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#22
jaster220

Posted 26 March 2018 - 04:33 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4910 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period...

 

LOL @ same ole dead zone for ORD and SWMI...and I thought last winter had some stretches of wx h*ll   :lol:  :wacko:


  • Niko likes this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#23
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 March 2018 - 04:41 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

GFS has now taken next week's storm and changed it to rain. But at least there's a 19" snowstorm @ 276!  :rolleyes:


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#24
Niko

Posted 26 March 2018 - 06:28 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5082 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

So, any severe weather expected for April. I hope so! :huh:



#25
CentralNebWeather

Posted 26 March 2018 - 09:01 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2084 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Attached File  GEM 2.png   118.13KB   0 downloads

12Z GEM much more bullish on snow than the GFS.  



#26
jaster220

Posted 26 March 2018 - 09:41 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4910 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

attachicon.gifGEM 2.png

12Z GEM much more bullish on snow than the GFS.  

 

Yep, I get 3" vs 1"  :lol:   Prolly still be getting dustings in June at this rate.. :rolleyes:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#27
NEJeremy

Posted 26 March 2018 - 09:42 AM

NEJeremy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1909 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

12Z GFS now showing 60s and 70s here the week after Easter. Brief cool down on Easter and then right back to warmth. Not much for snow either until hour 276 when it shows a big system. Crazy to see the changes



#28
GDR

Posted 26 March 2018 - 11:06 AM

GDR

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1252 posts
60s and 70s all day!!
  • Illinois_WX and jaster220 like this

#29
Illinois_WX

Posted 26 March 2018 - 12:36 PM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1113 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

60s and 70s all day!!

 

100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset :D


  • jaster220, NEJeremy and LNK_Weather like this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#30
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 March 2018 - 01:18 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1012 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

NWS saying the GFS is out on its own with this weekends forecast and they seem to be trusting the GEM/EURO party for the weekend.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 March 2018 - 06:49 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset :D

I LOVE THIS WEATHER and I wish we had it every day. I'd be a much happier person. Sunny weather makes me want to write dark poems on this thread.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#32
Tom

Posted 27 March 2018 - 03:41 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Latest Euro weeklies suggesting a continuation of a very wet pattern across the eastern sub...

 

 

DZQZ0TTUQAA5LWd.jpg

 

DZQZ0TTUMAEg_Oj.jpg



#33
Tom

Posted 27 March 2018 - 03:48 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Sheesh, the Euro weeklies are definitely holding onto to widespread BN temps this entire month and even into the first 10 days of May.  Some warmer periods are mixing in but the general theme is "No Torch" in site.  Head to Cali/SW and FL where  temps are largely AN if you want some spring fever.



#34
Tom

Posted 27 March 2018 - 04:04 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Next 4 weeks per the CFSv2....where were you in the winter???

 

wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif



#35
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 March 2018 - 04:40 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2084 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

NWS Hastings morning disco.  Accumulating snow on the Easter Eggs?  

 

..winter is not over yet as Arctic air will plunge south into
the region and it could be followed by accumulating snow at
times...

There is a pool of Arctic air over wrn Canada this am...where
temps are below zero and as cold as -26f. This pool will expand
and eventually unload into the cntrl/ern Continental U.S.. there will be a
few very cold days ahead over the next 2 wks. I think lows in the
teens for 1-3 days and highs in the 20s for 1 day are on The
Table.

Precip: there are 2 main periods of concern as there is potential
for accumulating snow that is not currently reflected in our fcst
due to model disagreement/uncertainty. They are centered on Thu
and sun. Model/ensemble qpfs vary greatly...but we cont to see
some qpfs that are very aggressive. Most are not...but believe
it's important to communicate what we are seeing. There are not
big/deep lows that will be crossing the rgn which is a large
reason for the uncertainty...but sufficient forcing exists for
some light-moderate snowfall amts (1-2 or as much as 4-6") for
parts of the County Warning Area.

Wed night thru Thu night needs to be watched as the upr trof and
the lfq of an upr-lvl jet streak move thru. The forcing aloft will
be there and this situation looks like the more potent of the two.
Sun has an fgen-band look to it.

Suggest closely monitoring future fcsts as more details come into
focus.



#36
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 March 2018 - 05:09 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1721 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Looping the GFS and seeing snow and 2m temps in the teens/20s into mid-April makes me want to crawl back under the covers.
  • jaster220 likes this

#37
Tom

Posted 27 March 2018 - 05:55 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Looping the GFS and seeing snow and 2m temps in the teens/20s into mid-April makes me want to crawl back under the covers.

No joke!  Pretty remarkable to see those temps being advertised not only by the GFS but the Euro as well.  Not a nice looking forecast for Easter this year!



#38
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 March 2018 - 07:11 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

If we're not gonna have any severe thunderstorms in April may as well have snow chances!


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#39
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 March 2018 - 12:36 AM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3441 posts
The year without a spring. This past winter and current spring reminds me so much of 2012-13. Crazy weather. It never snowed until May 3 here that year. Latest snow ever.
  • jaster220 and Thunder98 like this

#40
westMJim

Posted 28 March 2018 - 04:50 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1149 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

It looks like we are in for a cold Easter weekend so I thought I would look to see what some of the records are for both March 31st and April 1st

At Grand Rapids on March 31st the average H/L is 51/32 the record high is 78° set in 2010 the coldest maximum is a cold 20° set in 1923 the record low is also in 1920 at a bone chilling +6° the most snow fall is 3.7” in 1951. The last time there was more than a trace of snow was in 1991 (0.4”) the last time there was one inch or more was in 1975 with 2”

For April 1st the average H/L is 52/32 the record high is 82 in 2010 the recorded coldest maximum is 29 in 1911. The record low is 13 in 1954 the most snow fall is 4.8” in 1972 The last time more than a trace fell was in 2002 when 0.9” fell there was a trace in 2016, 2013, 2009 and 2007.  The last time more than 1” fell was in 1993 when 2.8” fell and there was a reported 1” on the ground.



#41
hlcater

Posted 28 March 2018 - 05:39 AM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1270 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA
Snow chances in April are terrible. Let’s just get a high risk in the plains already.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#42
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 March 2018 - 06:07 AM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3441 posts

Snow chances in April are terrible. Let’s just get a high risk in the plains already.


I'd send you all of those high risk days you could stand if you wanted them. Lol. I'll pass. Severe wx just gets old when you're used to it I guess.
  • jaster220 likes this

#43
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 March 2018 - 06:16 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2084 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

NWS Hastings really backing off of snow chances.  Not that I want more snow, but fairly typical of the year, chances look good several days out, then fade away.  Hope to get some decent moisture from the system, but that is even looking less likely.



#44
pack402

Posted 28 March 2018 - 08:05 AM

pack402

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 31 posts
I’ll pass on the high risk as well. Seems like big hail and destructive winds are the norm in eastern ne anymore. I’m tired of insurance claims and constant work on my home, property and vehicles. Give me a good lightning show and some rumbles of thunder in the distance and I’m happy.
  • jaster220 and snowstorm83 like this

#45
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 March 2018 - 08:51 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3484 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)
Yeah I'll also pass on the tennis ball hail we seem to get at least 3 times each Spring
  • jaster220 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#46
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 March 2018 - 12:30 PM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2084 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

NWS Hastings now says snow for Central and Southwest portions of Nebraska this weekend with several inches falling.  Boy they have flip flopped this week.  I don't buy any scenario yet.  Usually they wait until very close to an event, but they have been talking about this system since Sunday.



#47
Stacsh

Posted 28 March 2018 - 01:01 PM

Stacsh

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 94 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

All of the sudden the GFS showing a big warmup in the middle of the country after the initial week of April.  Seems more likely.  



#48
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 03:14 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

This is gonna leave a mark into the #delayedSpring pattern...

 

DZbFVjmXkAAqMfY.jpg



#49
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 03:26 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

JMA Weeklies pretty much agreeing with the CFSv2 on any noteable warm periods this month.  Head to the west/SW....or of course, the south looks pretty nice, esp the beaches of FL.



#50
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 03:40 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17111 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing.  Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind.  Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle.  00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look.  I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th???

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png