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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Been getting some light snow here for about an hour the temperature here is 33° Snow is not sticking but the road is wet. 

There could be an issue with the forecasted “warm up” here in Michigan for later this week. The issue is it may not get here. If it does there could be a big spread across the state of Michigan. Even if we do get “warm” for a day or two much of the region is still on tract for one of the coldest April’s in recorded history. The current mean temperature is 30.1° that is a departure of -13.4° Here are the 5 coldest Aprils in Grand Rapids history.
1. 1907 37.6°
2. 1950 39.6°
3. 1975 39.8°
4. 1926 40.4°
5. 1904 40.9

Are there any mathematicians that can calculate how warm the rest of April has to be to 1. get to 40.9° or be colder than 37.6°?  Note 1907 and 1950 had days in the upper 60's here in GR and 1975,1926 and 1904 had day in the mid to upper 70's.

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I can't think of anymore words to describe the unprecedented cold we have seen this April.  This is just ridiculous!  #FrozenYoopers

 

DaSmAexWkAEluo-.jpg

 

 

 

The temps I posted yesterday morning at Land O'Lakes ended up being a record low:

 

Ha! Stole my only wx thunder brother! How far away must spring seem when it's 24 below??  :wacko:  :wacko:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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But WAIT!  There's more..

 

-SN for (8) hrs straight and a lunch hour obs like, well Apruary ofc  :rolleyes:

 

20180409 Noon Obs for KRMY.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Duluth and INL have both had at least a Trace of snow cover since October 27.  So, today is Day 160 of the streak. default_ohmy.png

Duluth still has 7" of snow on the ground, and INL has 10". Given the ongoing cold temps, the snow cover will probably remain for at least 7 more days.

 

Although each individual location may have had a longer duration of Trace+ snow cover...this is probably close to a record streak for both towns simultaneously. The only winters close to this streak were probably 1995-96 or 1996-97.

 

Those never-ending back-2-back winters of my NMI days. Some Neb peeps that said I was in a snow belt and I denied such claims since Marshall doesn't really rank as such compared to many places in the Mitt. Not withstanding, BC5NW has now had 80+ inches for the 8th time in 18 yrs. That, one could argue, is a borderline snow belt

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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While not as much here in west Michigan in that April 1973 storm between 4 to 8" fell. To the north 6 to 9" fell and on the east side of the state around 3" fell. There was also a big April snow storm in 1975 and April 1982 was cold with a lot of snow as well. So far this April is running colder than  April 1973 and just about as cold as 1975.

 

I also remember an article saying that there was a snowstorm that hit Flint around April Fool's Day of '73

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm hearing the Euro Weeklies are brutal next 4 weeks....not good for the ag belt...

 

Last night's 45-day outlook had a below avg 850 temp every 5-day period.

 

I'm sure most of us would be ok with a little below avg.  It's this 15-30 degrees below avg stuff we need to get rid of.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm hearing the Euro Weeklies are brutal next 4 weeks....not good for the ag belt...

It's pretty brutal for the rest of the month but looks pretty warm in May with the exception of one blast around the second week of the month which could bring some late-season freezes to here. Other than that, looks like Summer will finally arrive in May.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The OP Euro advertises a complete Barney rampage starting this weekend thru the end of the run. Record lows may be set yet again with that scenario. GFS is less Barney-ish, but still well below average. The Sprinter that keeps on giving!

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It is looking more and more likely(IMO) that this April could end up being one of the coldest in recorded history (yes there is still 2/3 of the month to go yet) with today being the 1/3 point of this April the mean temperature here at Grand Rapids is a cold 30.6° Here is a list of the 5 coldest past April’s here in Grand Rapids.

  1. 1907 37.6°
    2. 1950 39.6°
    3. 1975 39.8°
    4. 1926 40.4°
    5. 1904 40.9°

It may or may not reach into the 60’s of Friday (there looks to be a sharp cut off of temps north to south) But even if it does reach that warm all of the above April’s had days where it reached the upper 60’s (1907 and 1950) and the other years reached the mid to upper 70’s  at least once in the month.

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Chicago's 4-day stretch of sub 40 degree highs beyond April 5th only done 2x since 1871...

 

DaZC_6WV4AITDyQ.jpg

 

With those two others being that long ago when the records were taken closer to the lake, I think this year's stands above those tbh. This time of year, inland is where warmth will happen more easily, thus ORD is more challenged to pull this off imho

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This sucks. Can’t wait for 2018 to surpass 2014 in suckage. Seriously this semi permanent eastern trough completely shutting down the plains is gonna drive me over the edge. Like this seems to happen every year now.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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This sucks. Can’t wait for 2018 to surpass 2014 in suckage. Seriously this semi permanent eastern trough completely shutting down the plains is gonna drive me over the edge. Like this seems to happen every year now.

No kidding, wait till low solar really starts showing its impact next year and the following.  If the warm AMO period is on the decline, and if JB is right about it, couple that with low solar and real spring-like wx may be non-existent (Mar-May) into the MW/Upper MW/GL's.  The plains states are always tricky bc they typically almost always see warmth flood into their world.

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Well, back in MI ........working from my office today. running a few errands later. So when I woke up earlier this morning at around 12pm LOL, there was snow otg. :wacko: Wasszz-up w that dudes. Its almost mid-April.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 43F w mostly cloudy skies.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Great, we are in a Fire Weather Watch.  Sure like the words Winter Storm Watch a lot better.

 

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Favorable Wednesday
Afternoon...

.The combination of dry conditions, low relative humidity and
gusty winds may produce critical fire weather conditions
Wednesday afternoon.

NEZ039-046-061-073-110415-
/O.EXA.KGID.FW.A.0004.180411T1800Z-180412T0200Z/
Valley-Sherman-Buffalo-Phelps-
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 039, 046, 061 AND 073...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 039 Valley,
Fire Weather Zone 046 Sherman, Fire Weather Zone 061 Buffalo
and Fire Weather Zone 073 Phelps.

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TIMING...Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop are expected to spread
quickly and be difficult to control, possibly exhibiting
extreme fire behavior. Use caution if engaging in activities
that could start a fire.

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Tomorrow looks like the pic day of the week here with full sun, southerly breeze and temps in the low 70's.  Friday is trending cloudier, wetter and will result in temps prob holding into the 60's, unless your farther south.  Typical Spring time warm front dissecting WI/IL border resulting in a N/S temp gradient pattern.  Not going to complain bc this will be much welcomed in my book.

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