April 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Can you imagine if the solar minimum, year's down the road, may produce a dramatic effect on our global weather patterns and shift the norms of the north 100's of miles south?  If so, Chicago just experienced what is normal for Intl' Falls, MN.  Keep that in the back your mind.

 

[Tom]

After today's 40's, the next 6 days look wonderful, esp in a Spring where sunshine has been hard to come by and 50's/60's have been a struggle.

 

[Tom]

As the sun begins to break above the horizon, shedding daylight across the sky, today should be the last day this season where I wake up in the morning to see snow OTG.  Looks like a coating of snow fell last night producing another wintry scene in late April.  It's time to say good bye to Ol' Man Winter and welcome Spring.

[Minny_Weather]

As much as I hate to say it, Winter is gone for good. I'm shifting my patio to "Summer mode" today, bring in my firewood rack and water glass and bringing out the chair and plant pots.

[Stacsh]

Actually excited to spend the weekend in my yard.  Few weeks late, but looking forward to it.  

[westMJim]

After 18 days in April the current mean temperature here in Grand Rapids is a cold 34.2° that is -11.4° below average. There now has been 6” of snow fall this April. And the seasons total is now at 77..4”

At this point April has been one of the coldest in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes area. As of April 17^th, here is how Detroit, Flint and Saginaw rank for the first 17 days.

Detroit 38.2° (normal average 47.0°). this ranks as the 3^rd coldest first 17 days of April at Detroit. Flint 34.3° (the normal average as of April 17^th is 44.1°) this April ranks as Flints 2^nd coldest first 17 days. Saginaw, The first 17 days have an average this year of 33.6° (the normal average is 43.7°) this has been the coldest first 17 days or April in Saginaw history.

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/weatherstory

[NEJeremy]

Always interesting to see what else is going on in the world outside of our “little neighborhood”. Where’s all the sea ice?! 5th warmest March on record too.

[jaster220]

Can you imagine if the solar minimum, year's down the road, may produce a dramatic effect on our global weather patterns and shift the norms of the north 100's of miles south?  If so, Chicago just experienced what is normal for Intl' Falls, MN.  Keep that in the back your mind.

 

 

Where the h*ll's AGW when you need it?? 

[jaster220]

Actually excited to spend the weekend in my yard.  Few weeks late, but looking forward to it.  

 

  'bout damned time!

 

[Niko]

Sunshine and clouds w temps in the 40s. Nice stretch of weather coming and a warm-up, finally.

[Niko]

Bare trees still around. Hopefully, that will change soon and May will enter w flowers and leaves.

 

My grass is getting greener and greener. Have not yet turned on my Sprinklers, if you can believe that. Will soon though. Weather has to get a lot betta.

[jaster220]

After 18 days in April the current mean temperature here in Grand Rapids is a cold 34.2° that is -11.4° below average. There now has been 6” of snow fall this April. And the seasons total is now at 77..4”

At this point April has been one of the coldest in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes area. As of April 17^th, here is how Detroit, Flint and Saginaw rank for the first 17 days.

Detroit 38.2° (normal average 47.0°). this ranks as the 3^rd coldest first 17 days of April at Detroit. Flint 34.3° (the normal average as of April 17^th is 44.1°) this April ranks as Flints 2^nd coldest first 17 days. Saginaw, The first 17 days have an average this year of 33.6° (the normal average is 43.7°) this has been the coldest first 17 days or April in Saginaw history.

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/weatherstory

 

And the snowiest April for almost every locale across NMI. 1975 and 1982 treated SMI to the cold April snowstorms. A tri-fecta was not had..

 

 

Petoskey by 15"  Impressive! 

[Tom]

During this cold Spring, interestingly enough, Arctic sea ice by volume has increased significantly since March 1st and is holding steady near normal.  A lot higher this period in time compared to the last 2 years.  I'm very curious to see where we end up through this summer season.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180418.png

[Minny_Weather]

Always interesting to see what else is going on in the world outside of our “little neighborhood”. Where’s all the sea ice?! 5th warmest March on record too.

Yup! Good thing we're close to the end of this warm period. The solar minimum couldn't come fast enough! Let's build that ice back up!

[Hawkeye]

After one more cold night tonight, well down into the 20s, winter is FINALLY over.  Models are showing nothing but 50s and 60s, with a chance of a couple low 70s, through the extended, with all morning lows above freezing.  It's time to uncover my non-hardy hummer plants, get the stone bird bath out, plant beets, and then hit the garden centers for this year's tender annuals at the end of the month.  Thank god we've turned the corner.

[gosaints]

The GFS looks glorious through the end of next week

[Stacsh]

Meanwhile, Europe is sizzling hot.  

[NEJeremy]

Meanwhile, Europe is sizzling hot.  

Remember if we're(the northern part of the US) is cold, than it doesn't matter whether the rest of the planet is hot

[Minny_Weather]

Remember if we're(the northern part of the US) is cold, than it doesn't matter whether the rest of the planet is hot

Didn't you say that local observations at the present time shouldn't be used in any AGW argument, for or against? Cuz I agreed with you there. I guess when it's well above average in Europe that's off the table.

[NEJeremy]

Didn't you say that local observations at the present time shouldn't be used in any AGW argument, for or against? Cuz I agreed with you there. I guess when it's well above average in Europe that's off the table.

Sorry if I wasn't being very clear. He was the one that said Europe is sizzling. I quoted him, but in my statement I said the "rest of the planet". He gave one specific example presumably suggesting that not everywhere is cold like us, while I said the planet, and was trying to reference the fact the Earth just had the 5th hottest March.

[Money]

Sorry if I wasn't being very clear. He was the one that said Europe is sizzling. I quoted him, but in my statement I said the "rest of the planet". He gave one specific example presumably suggesting that not everywhere is cold like us, while I said the planet, and was trying to reference the fact the Earth just had the 5th hottest March.

Why are you trying to talk politics in this thread?

[gosaints]

Why are you trying to talk politics in this thread?

Politics???

[Money]

Politics???

Global warming is a political topic, yes

[gosaints]

Global warming is a political topic, yes

if u make it one sure

[NEJeremy]

I simply posted an image showing the weather highlights around the globe from the month of March and noted it was the 5th warmest and sea ice was way below average again.

Seems no different than other people talking about the solar minimum, warming ending, ice age coming, and the jokes or cracks made about AGW, as happens all the time in the threads. Nothing political mentioned.

[Stacsh]

Global warming is a political topic, yes

It shouldn't be, but people can make anything political. 

 

 I was simply pointing out that Europe was sizzling and we were stuck in the cold and I envy them.  

[Stacsh]

April sun doing some work out there.  Forecast high of 46 and currently at 53.  

[jaster220]

Wow. Beating my grid-cast by 8 degs under sunshine! May this continue, ad nausea-um     

[Minny_Weather]

Why are you trying to talk politics in this thread?

No need to start something in here.

 

Just because it's a disagreeable topic and it's for some reason divided by party lines out in the real world doesn't mean it has to be political in here. This is a weather forum. Climate has an effect on our weather. I personally don't believe in AGW, or at least that it's prevalent to the extent that we need to worry about it. Many people disagree with me. There's smart people on both sides of the argument. I feel like this is something we can civilly discuss.

[Minny_Weather]

Monday's Euro weekly run was showing a pretty persistent Western trough throughout May. I'd pay money to get that. This will be my third severe weather season here & the past two it didn't feel like I lived in tornado alley.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Monday's Euro weekly run was showing a pretty persistent Western trough throughout May. I'd pay money to get that. This will be my third severe weather season here & the past two it didn't feel like I lived in tornado alley.

It's been that way for more then 2 years lol. But yes I'm hoping for that too.

[Tom]

CPC's May outlook...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

[Minny_Weather]

It's quite possible last night or tonight will end up being our last freeze. No below freezing tenps in the near future & by then we're in May and in may it takes a more-than-decent cold snap to bring below freezing temps.

[CentralNebWeather]

Always a little sad when we transition out of winter storm mode. I thought the discussions were tremendous. I come here to learn from extremely smart people. I have told my wife that some on here have missed their calling and could have been meteorologists. Thanks again for the insights. Now let’s look forward to an exciting and safe severe weather season.

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside. Not a cloud to be found. Temp in the 30s and dropping in the 20s.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nice days are hard to come by without wind, today was our lucky day. High of 58 but still below avg

[Tom]

Doesn't it feel like its been a longgg battle with Winter???  This has been a crazy season and I'm thrilled to finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.  The warming trend begins today and lasts through next week.  Finally!  Glad the weather is cooperating for my cousins wedding this weekend so that should be a fun time.  Polish weddings are a bit nutty....meanwhile, in other news, I heard that OK may be setting a record later next week (27th) for the latest date of zero confirmed tornado's for the entire state to start off the year.

[Tom]

Guess what model was a step ahead of the rest???  The CFSv2 had a jump on the wetter pattern next month and lead the pack suggesting a wetter pattern down in the southern Plains.  This is a big deal as we head into the summer.  Here was the Euro Weeklies run from yesterday suggesting a very dry pattern for the northern 1/2 of the sub forum and quite wet down south.  This should put out what wild fires are smoking down in OK/TX.  Severe wx season may still continue to be on hiatus across the central Plains/MW region.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Stayed above freezing. Unless another major cold wave comes, I just don't see us having another below-freezing reading. Therefore, April 19 will likely go down as our last freeze, which is four days before our average last freeze of April 23. 38.3*F.

[westMJim]

All readings are for Grand Rapids, MI

Will we see our first 70° next week? Over the last 40 years the average first 70° is March 30^th In the time there have only been 3 years when the first 70° day came after April 20^th (today’s date) they are 4/27/2013 when the high reached 71° and the next 3 days came in at 64°,73° and 78° in 1984 the first date was not until 4/26 when the high reach 83° with highs reaching 78 and 70 after that. And in 1993 when the first date was April 24^th when the high reach 73° a reading of 71 came a few days later. Going back further for 70 years the average first 70° day is April 2^nd  Since 1948 the years that did not reach 70 on or before April 20^th are 1. 1950 May 3^rd 2. 1951 April 30^th 3. 1970 April 25^th 4. 1975 April 29^th 5. 1984 April 26^th 6. 1993 April 24^th 7. 2013 April 27^th so in the last 70 years there have only been 7 Aprils that did not reach 70° or more by today. Note that May 3^rd 1950 is the latest first 70° day in Grand Rapids history. The last time it has been 70 or better here in Grand Rapids was October 22 last year.