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April 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
gosaints

Posted 29 March 2018 - 04:06 AM

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When it's gonna be cold in the spring you can count on Tom posts. Warm? You can count on them from me.

A couple years ago I remember being torn up for cfs posts when they showed warmth.
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#52
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 04:45 AM

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When it's gonna be cold in the spring you can count on Tom posts. Warm? You can count on them from me.

A couple years ago I remember being torn up for cfs posts when they showed warmth.

Not true.  I guess you missed several posts I made over the past few weeks of possible warmth, of which, is now beginning to look non existence to due the extensive blocking pattern.  I would love to see a warm Spring and post torches instead of this gloomy, cloudy, cold, wet and boring extended cold pattern.  Believe me, I'm not the "old poster" I once was always posting about cold all the time.  I've grown to provide more balance in this forum which is the growth I've endured.

 

In reference to the CFSv2, since 2 years ago, this model has been doing an amazing job post-upgrade and I've been using it as a tool quite often actually.



#53
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 March 2018 - 04:50 AM

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Ugh. Snow moved north. Now it’s just going to be cold and dry. A low of 12F in the point for Saturday night.

#54
Niko

Posted 29 March 2018 - 04:55 AM

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More snow for the EC???

 

https://www.nymetrow...s-not-question/



#55
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 March 2018 - 06:53 AM

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Yeah this cold isn't gonna be good for the planting season. The last thing we need is killing freezes in May.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#56
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 07:03 AM

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Yeah this cold isn't gonna be good for the planting season. The last thing we need is killing freezes in May.

Remember last year's late April CO/KS blizzard that killed plenty of cattle and I believe their wheat took a hit???  I wonder if some places this year get hit with a large snow storm.



#57
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 08:47 AM

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I think the 12z GFS just read the script off of the LRC for Week 2!  Gotta love it...not only does the Polar Vortex make a visit into the GL's late next week into the weekend but a potent system develops across the Plains...

 

gfs_z500a_us_34.png

 

 

 

Snowstorm anyone???  Fits the pattern...all I'm saying...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png



#58
jaster220

Posted 29 March 2018 - 10:10 AM

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I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing.  Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind.  Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle.  00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look.  I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th???

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

That's been a favored track this winter..go with it

 

More snow for the EC???

 

https://www.nymetrow...s-not-question/

 

..here's a Quarter - phone someone who cares


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#59
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 29 March 2018 - 10:14 AM

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I'm even less convinced that the LRC actually exists than I was before the season.....
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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#60
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 11:36 AM

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I'm even less convinced that the LRC actually exists than I was before the season.....


You should read his peer review paper and follow his Weather2020 blog and it may open up your mind to the cyclical nature of the westerly belt across the Northern Hemisphere.

#61
Hawkeye

Posted 29 March 2018 - 12:11 PM

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Euro ensemble mean is looking pretty snowy for some areas.

 

Attached File  eps_acc_snow_conus_360.png   175.65KB   3 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#62
CentralNebWeather

Posted 29 March 2018 - 12:18 PM

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I have been out of the loop today taking our Junior daughter on college visits, going to visit UNL tomorrow, Go Big Red, and just saw the 12z GFS, holy cow. That snow would break some snowfall records if it verified. Doubt we get anywhere near those totals, but pattern is conducive to storminess.
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#63
Tom

Posted 29 March 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Euro ensemble mean is looking pretty snowy for some areas.

 

attachicon.gifeps_acc_snow_conus_360.png

That's just insane...history may be re-written during this 2 week stretch in April...12z Euro has a major snowstorm late next week and both GFS/EURO are showing something across our sub forum.  I think someone is due to get hit hard late next week and fits the Feb 18th-20th storm system which ejected out of CO and tracked towards the GL's.  This system was an elongated SLP with a very tight thermal gradient across NE/IA/MN/WI and produced ample moisture (Flood watches for IL/S WI/IN/MI).  I think we will be seeing a lot more wintry precip this time.



#64
Hawkeye

Posted 29 March 2018 - 01:34 PM

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Here's the latest euro ensemble guidance for Cedar Rapids... pretty awful.  The avg high temp goes from 53 to 59 during the period.

 

Attached File  KCID_2018032912_forecast_EPS_360.png   189.97KB   1 downloads


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#65
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 March 2018 - 02:20 PM

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MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time.
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#66
Money

Posted 29 March 2018 - 02:22 PM

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Gfs with a pretty good snowstorm Monday/Tuesday next week

http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=conus&dpdt=

#67
SE Wisconsin

Posted 29 March 2018 - 03:27 PM

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For a lot of members on this sub-forum there never really was a winter.  Now it looks as though there really won't be a spring!


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#68
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 March 2018 - 04:03 PM

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MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time.


I'd like to see that ridge keep retrograding out until it parks itself over the NE PAC and AK by late spring. If we could see that develop, would be both a strong late May and June storm season and a great setup post-summer. This pattern down here is simply depressing at this point.
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#69
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 March 2018 - 04:07 PM

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We average 1" in April so it definitely isn't out of the question. We haven't gotten April measurable snow since 2013. I'm too lazy to check when the last time we got a REAL snowfall in April was, but I'm thinking it was in the 90s.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#70
snowstorm83

Posted 29 March 2018 - 06:08 PM

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18z GFS and 12z euro both want to drop the arctic hammer next Saturday. Would easily be colder than anything in March if it verified lol.


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#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 March 2018 - 06:23 PM

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18z GFS and 12z euro both want to drop the arctic hammer next Saturday. Would easily be colder than anything in March if it verified lol.


No kidding. Highs in the mid-20s in April?

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#72
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 29 March 2018 - 07:24 PM

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How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#73
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 March 2018 - 08:08 PM

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How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done.


If it snows measurably in Omaha Sunday I'll personally deliver you $5.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#74
NEJeremy

Posted 29 March 2018 - 08:41 PM

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Wasn’t it supposed to snow today according to some of the models earlier this week? This weekend is going to be nothing but maybe some flurries if that. March will end up with less than 1” of snow here in Omaha. Epic indeed.
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#75
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 March 2018 - 09:01 PM

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My f***** god 00z GFS is wacko. 6" and still snowing on Kuchera @231.

 

With GFS' track record, I am 100% sure it will totally verify.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#76
bud2380

Posted 30 March 2018 - 02:50 AM

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6z GFs showing widespread 12–24” across Nebraska Iowa and Illinois. Not that that will happen but it shows the larger point that spring isn’t coming anytime soon. If this verified it will have to be one of the coldest starts to spring we’ve had in a long time.
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#77
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 03:23 AM

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@CentralNeb, all the models are showing your area getting a few inches this weekend.  Your prob the only one on here that has a chance of a White Easter.

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_11.png

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_21.png

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_11.png



#78
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 03:33 AM

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Wasn’t it supposed to snow today according to some of the models earlier this week? This weekend is going to be nothing but maybe some flurries if that. March will end up with less than 1” of snow here in Omaha. Epic indeed.

Where are those 60's?  Enjoy the cold Easter.  Epic severe wx season.



#79
jaster220

Posted 30 March 2018 - 04:46 AM

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Going out on a limb against all the talk in here and say that Marshall manages to escape any additional measurable snowfall. Already my grid for the upcoming week is full of RN/SN crud. We dip into the 20's some nights when it's clear, but not quite cold enuff aloft during the moisture periods to be legit snowfall. Same story as the past 40+ days really. True winter exited here on or about St. Valentine's Day. Ever since, we've been living in a nether world that I can only term Wx Purgatory. Winter for mby was approximately 2 mos from Dec 7th to Feb 14th. During that period, snowfall was substantial but the regular complete torch-offs and the manner in which they happened really pulls the grade down from what it could've been.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 04:51 AM

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GEFS show a mean of 10"+ of snow for practically all of NE, except for E NE, up into most of MN into N/C WI through the middle of the month.  That's just incredible to even see a model consistently show the potential for that much snow in April.  I'm hearing the EPS is similar as well.


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#81
CentralNebWeather

Posted 30 March 2018 - 05:03 AM

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I am in Lincoln today and have seen the forecast back in Central Nebraska they have already issued a WWA just to my west. My local forecast has 2-4 inches as of right now for Saturday night through Easter services on Sunday. I am an usher at church Sunday, might have to shovel the sidewalks in front of the church. Looks like a crazy pattern. I think it depends on timing, it would be more snow if it comes at night and not during the daylight hours with an April sun angle.
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#82
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 March 2018 - 05:05 AM

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GEFS show a mean of 10"+ of snow for practically all of NE, except for E NE, up into most of MN into N/C WI through the middle of the month. That's just incredible to even see a model consistently show the potential for that much snow in April. I'm hearing the EPS is similar as well.


I was just going to post this. I took a look at the 6z GEFS and some of the snow totals are mind blowing for April. Heck, they’d be pretty solid totals for January. The temp anomalies for late next week are insane on the GFS.

Attached Files


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#83
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 05:09 AM

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Not a pretty outlook per recent trends via the CFSv2 this month....

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif



#84
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 05:26 AM

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I was just going to post this. I took a look at the 6z GEFS and some of the snow totals are mind blowing for April. Heck, they’d be pretty solid totals for January. The temp anomalies for late next week are insane on the GFS.


Not only that, but to see both the GFS/Euro on board with the idea of the Polar Vortex making a visit next weekend is phenomenal. 00z Euro suggesting near 0F lows not far from you but of course, your prob going to need snow OTG if those temps come close to verifying.

#85
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 05:59 AM

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KC has a shot at a record cold high on Easter Sunday. The record cold high for the day is 37F. The forecasted daytime high temps are predicted to be in the low 30’s with snow flying in the air.
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#86
NEJeremy

Posted 30 March 2018 - 06:15 AM

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Where are those 60's? Enjoy the cold Easter. Epic severe wx season.


60 today. 60 this past Wednesday. Big deal, 40s this weekend with no snow. Back to 50s on Monday. As far as after that, it hasn’t snowed a flake yet in April and these clown maps we’ve seen numerous times this winter. We’re above normal for temperatures in March and we had 1 inch of snow. This winter we’ve had average or above average temperatures for every month except for one and have had 16 inches of snow, thus my skepticism. I believe you have said at least three times this season, this is a weather pattern you’ve never seen before, yet basically the entire forum is only near or even below average for snowfall. When you speak in hyperbole all the time and it doesn’t deliver.... Yet at the end of the day you don’t control the weather so I’m not sure why you get so ticked off when someone says they don’t believe it or you.
Btw, severe weather season hasn’t even started yet. It’s March 30th. And I’ve made no claims of an epic severe weather season.
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#87
Niko

Posted 30 March 2018 - 06:43 AM

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This April, cold weather shaping up is pissing me off and its simply pathetic. We are suppose to be getting severe weather man. WTF! :angry:



#88
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 March 2018 - 06:53 AM

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Not sure what Euro is showing, but GFS is showing the potential for some record cold in 10 days.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#89
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 06:54 AM

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60 today. 60 this past Wednesday. Big deal, 40s this weekend with no snow. Back to 50s on Monday. As far as after that, it hasn’t snowed a flake yet in April and these clown maps we’ve seen numerous times this winter. We’re above normal for temperatures in March and we had 1 inch of snow. This winter we’ve had average or above average temperatures for every month except for one and have had 16 inches of snow, thus my skepticism. I believe you have said at least three times this season, this is a weather pattern you’ve never seen before, yet basically the entire forum is only near or even below average for snowfall. When you speak in hyperbole all the time and it doesn’t deliver.... Yet at the end of the day you don’t control the weather so I’m not sure why you get so ticked off when someone says they don’t believe it or you.
Btw, severe weather season hasn’t even started yet. It’s March 30th. And I’ve made no claims of an epic severe weather season.

Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as such since I've been diligently following the weather.  Maybe those older folks on here have, but not I, said the guy from the Chi!

 

As per the second bolded, I only hear your comments when I'm wrong or the models don't agree or go the other way when a call I make goes south.  On the flip side, I go out on a limb, take risks, trust my intuition, when making long range predictions which are often fairly accurate, esp when it comes to forecasting a storm track/date, etc.  I'm not asking for a "round of applause", I do it bc its fun, it's a challenge and I learn from my mistakes.  It amuses me how you are quick to judge a wrong prediction but when they are right they don't get the acknowledgement.   I don't need a cheering squad bc I have confidence in what I do and where I'm eventually going to take this knowledge in the future.  Happy Good Friday! 


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#90
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 March 2018 - 07:05 AM

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The fact that powdery snow in daylight in April is on the table is nothing short of impressive. Granted it's 10 day GFS, but still an eyegasm.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#91
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 07:07 AM

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The fact that powdery snow in daylight in April is on the table is nothing short of impressive. Granted it's 10 day GFS, but still an eyegasm.

Heck ya, I wonder what the models would have looked like back in April '82 if they had the same technology we do now.



#92
Money

Posted 30 March 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Icon really develops that system for Tue/Wed

https://www.tropical...018033012&fh=99

#93
jaster220

Posted 30 March 2018 - 08:16 AM

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Not a pretty outlook per recent trends via the CFSv2 this month....

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

 

Why am I not in Florida already??? 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
jaster220

Posted 30 March 2018 - 08:21 AM

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Icon really develops that system for Tue/Wed

https://www.tropical...018033012&fh=99

 

:lol: Ofc will prolly happen cuz RAIN's here..


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 March 2018 - 08:50 AM

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Icon really develops that system for Tue/Wed

https://www.tropical...018033012&fh=99

ICON has been even more of a wet dream to us than GFS this year.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#96
GDR

Posted 30 March 2018 - 09:49 AM

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12z says no bono!!

#97
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 10:22 AM

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12z Euro paints .40qpf of snow through C/S NE on Easter Sunday...right through @CentralNeb's place...



#98
GDR

Posted 30 March 2018 - 10:34 AM

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Looks like 40s and 50s through the next 10 for me

#99
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 10:39 AM

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Looks like 40s and 50s through the next 10 for me

Good luck...

 

Meantime, 12z Euro farther south with the storm next Tue/Wed and hits IA/N IL/WI into MI with a significant snowstorm.



#100
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 30 March 2018 - 10:49 AM

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This pattern is awful. Why couldn’t this come in January when people actually wanted it
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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")