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April 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#101
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 10:51 AM

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This pattern is awful. Why couldn’t this come in January when people actually wanted it

Agree...nothing you can do about it though, unless you pack your bag and travel somewhere warm...


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#102
Tony

Posted 30 March 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Good luck...

 

Meantime, 12z Euro farther south with the storm next Tue/Wed and hits IA/N IL/WI into MI with a significant snowstorm.

Can't believe this is still happening and looking past this it does not look any better. Love springtime here in Chicago


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#103
CentralNebWeather

Posted 30 March 2018 - 12:25 PM

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12z Euro paints .40qpf of snow through C/S NE on Easter Sunday...right through @CentralNeb's place...


Sorry I haven’t been responding todY. On the road home. Be home later to look at maps. Wife just said WWA for our county. Crazy.
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#104
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 01:11 PM

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Can't believe this is still happening and looking past this it does not look any better. Love springtime here in Chicago


Springs are hit or miss here. Some good and some bad. The last couple years haven’t been to pleasing. This Spring has really been pretty awful and this month doesn’t look pretty.

#105
bud2380

Posted 30 March 2018 - 01:24 PM

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Euro next Tuesday.  

 

Attached File  ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_108.png   233.45KB   0 downloads



#106
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 March 2018 - 02:18 PM

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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open. Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as such since I've been diligently following the weather. Maybe those older folks on here have, but not I, said the guy from the Chi!

As per the second bolded, I only hear your comments when I'm wrong or the models don't agree or go the other way when a call I make goes south. On the flip side, I go out on a limb, take risks, trust my intuition, when making long range predictions which are often fairly accurate, esp when it comes to forecasting a storm track/date, etc. I'm not asking for a "round of applause", I do it bc its fun, it's a challenge and I learn from my mistakes. It amuses me how you are quick to judge a wrong prediction but when they are right they don't get the acknowledgement. I don't need a cheering squad bc I have confidence in what I do and where I'm eventually going to take this knowledge in the future. Happy Good Friday!

Well said sir. Some haven't made a single prediction yet, since I've been on this forum. We all have a right to disagree but it's easy to criticize from a hiding place. That is all.
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#107
Money

Posted 30 March 2018 - 02:46 PM

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https://www.tropical...18033018&fh=228

Don’t see this map too often in April
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#108
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 March 2018 - 02:50 PM

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https://www.tropical...18033018&fh=228

Don’t see this map too often in April


Don't see it too often in December either. :D
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#109
CentralNebWeather

Posted 30 March 2018 - 02:59 PM

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Winter Weather Advisory: 2-5 inches or more, Saturday night through Sunday morning

Update- new local forecast is 3-5 inches tomorrow night, 1-3 inches Sunday. Would be the most snowfall for any storm this season if it verifies.
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#110
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 March 2018 - 04:13 PM

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If anything like that 18z GFS verifies its going to be an ugly spring. That map makes me cringe.
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#111
CentralNebWeather

Posted 30 March 2018 - 07:48 PM

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0z GFS with a nice swath over my area of Central NebraskaAttached File  93A3F978-807C-4A80-90BA-3C90399CE3CD.png   160.08KB   0 downloads
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#112
snowstorm83

Posted 30 March 2018 - 08:05 PM

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GFS looking better for Lincoln I see...

#113
Money

Posted 30 March 2018 - 08:24 PM

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http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=conus&dpdt=

High temps in the upper teens/low 20’s

#114
Money

Posted 30 March 2018 - 08:41 PM

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GEM

https://www.tropical...18033100&fh=240

#115
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 03:29 AM

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So the models about a week ago had the right idea of bringing a White Easter for a number of our members, including some down south into MO/KS where snow has been non existent this season.  Go figure!

 

06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

06z NAM...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

00z GGEM...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png



#116
GDR

Posted 31 March 2018 - 03:40 AM

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Looks like some needed rain in my forecast next week

#117
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 03:44 AM

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I started a thread for the Tue/Wed winter storm potential...

 

http://theweatherfor...s-winter-storm/



#118
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 03:48 AM

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If the Euro is right, could MSP shatter all-time record lows for the month of April???  Sheesh, -10's sub zero lows on Sat morning as our friend from the north, Mr. Polar Vortex is likely to pay a visit.  Just incredible to even see maps like these in early April.  


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#119
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 04:47 AM

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In all honesty, I've never seen an April run via the CFSv2 this cold for so much of the nation east of the Rockies...history re-written???  The writing is on the wall that there will be episodes of historic periods/days this month.

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180331.201804.gif

 

Hey, look at the bright side, at least there will be plentiful precip...

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20180331.201804.gif



#120
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 March 2018 - 05:44 AM

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Of course it'll snow on the day I'm flying back to Nebraska. For the love of God.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#121
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 06:14 AM

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12z NAM has even more snow. Wow

Pound town!  LNK comes close to some decent snows as well...Easter bunny will have some fun with this out in the fields of NE.

 

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

 

 

snku_acc.us_c.png



#122
Niko

Posted 31 March 2018 - 06:28 AM

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April snows are useless. :rolleyes:


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#123
Niko

Posted 31 March 2018 - 06:29 AM

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Its looking like a cold week next week w bouts of very cold air for this time of the year. Lows at some point getting as low as the teens.



#124
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 March 2018 - 06:30 AM

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April snows are useless. :rolleyes:


Who cares? It's still measurable snow. If you're a snow lover/stats buff like me April snow is gold. I know I'm pissed af that I'm missing this by 4 hours.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#125
Niko

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:06 AM

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Who cares? It's still measurable snow. If you're a snow lover/stats buff like me April snow is gold. I know I'm pissed af that I'm missing this by 4 hours.

For only a few hours and then it melts. Whats the use for that. Trust me, I like snow, but only in Winter months. I will never understand how some people on here get excited over April Winterstorms. The snow will be gone the next day. Even if it stays cold and cloudy afterwards for days on end, the snow will be melting due to strong sun angle.



#126
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:14 AM

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For only a few hours and then it melts. Whats the use for that. Trust me, I like snow, but only in Winter months. I will never understand how some people on here get excited over April Winterstorms. The snow will be gone the next day. Even if it stays cold and cloudy afterwards for days on end, the snow will be melting due to strong sun angle.


People get excited over April snow cuz not everybody is like you. Some people enjoy having Winter return, if only for a bit. Yes I'd prefer this pattern to be in December, but I can't control the months.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#127
CentralNebWeather

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:19 AM

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April snow is still moisture. Any form is welcomed around here, and yes it does melt quickly so it’s not a big deal. Rather have it than red flag warnings.
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#128
gosaints

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:27 AM

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For only a few hours and then it melts. Whats the use for that. Trust me, I like snow, but only in Winter months. I will never understand how some people on here get excited over April Winterstorms. The snow will be gone the next day. Even if it stays cold and cloudy afterwards for days on end, the snow will be melting due to strong sun angle.


The joy of snow for me is almost entirely watching it fall during the storm. The days that follow really do nothing for me.

#129
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:39 AM

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The joy of snow for me is almost entirely watching it fall during the storm. The days that follow really do nothing for me.


This. For me it’s more about the tracking of the storm and watching the snow fall than the days afterwards. I enjoy snow sports so I do like snow OTG. But the real excitement is the actual storm.
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#130
westMJim

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:40 AM

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April snows are useless. :rolleyes:

The snow for next week looks to stay well to the north of central lower Michigan but back in 1975 when I lived in Bay City that was not the case.  The storm started just after sunset on Wednesday April 2nd 1975. The second was a cold and windy day with the high for the day a just 33° with a NE wind.  As I said the snow started just after sunset and by 9 PM it was snow very hard and around 10PM there was a thunderstorm with a lot of thunder and lightning  and where I lived the winds were around 60 MPH or more during the thunderstorm. The power went out at my house and stay out for the next day. In the back yard I had 5 foot drifts. Here are some reports from the April 3rd Bay City Times.

"17 inches of snow stall area; rest of state also hit hard," the headline on the front page of The Bay City Times read on April 3, 1975. A photograph of a man riding a snowmobile through the city and snow covering South Washington are featured on the page. The 1975 storm temporarily closed Saginaw Township's Fashion Square Mall and police urged motorists to stay at home. The storm hit much of lower Michigan and led to traffic troubles throughout the region surrounding Bay City and Saginaw.  In Lansing, Michigan State University had a snow day and M-81 was closed in Tuscola County. The “official snow fall at MBS (about 18 miles SW of Bay City) was 14.4”. That snow stay on the ground for 9 days.


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#131
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:42 AM

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If the Euro is right, could MSP shatter all-time record lows for the month of April??? Sheesh, -10's sub zero lows on Sat morning as our friend from the north, Mr. Polar Vortex is likely to pay a visit. Just incredible to even see maps like these in early April.

Dislike! I’ll take the April snow but the cold can go away at any time. An ice fisherman on the lake confirmed the other day that there’s still about 14” of ice. At this pace and based on the forecast, the ice might be around in May. Unreal if that happens.
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#132
westMJim

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:43 AM

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The snow for next week looks to stay well to the north of central lower Michigan but back in 1975 when I lived in Bay City that was not the case.  The storm started just after sunset on Wednesday April 2nd 1975. The second was a cold and windy day with the high for the day a just 33° with a NE wind.  As I said the snow started just after sunset and by 9 PM it was snow very hard and around 10PM there was a thunderstorm with a lot of thunder and lightning  and where I lived the winds were around 60 MPH or more during the thunderstorm. The power went out at my house and stay out for the next day. In the back yard I had 5 foot drifts. Here are some reports from the April 3rd Bay City Times.

"17 inches of snow stall area; rest of state also hit hard," the headline on the front page of The Bay City Times read on April 3, 1975. A photograph of a man riding a snowmobile through the city and snow covering South Washington are featured on the page. The 1975 storm temporarily closed Saginaw Township's Fashion Square Mall and police urged motorists to stay at home. The storm hit much of lower Michigan and led to traffic troubles throughout the region surrounding Bay City and Saginaw.  In Lansing, Michigan State University had a snow day and M-81 was closed in Tuscola County. The “official snow fall at MBS (about 18 miles SW of Bay City) was 14.4”. That snow stay on the ground for 9 days.

Here is some info on the storm is Chicago

http://articles.chic...k-wachowski-wgn


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#133
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:16 AM

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This, I gotta see...Arctic frontal snows next Friday???  What an incredible onslaught nature has in store for the opening week of April.  Truly amazing if this happens.

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_25.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_24.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_25.png


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#134
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:20 AM

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^ that’s absolutely crazy if that verifies. Single digit 2m temps. Ugh.

#135
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:22 AM

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^ that’s absolutely crazy if that verifies. Single digit 2m temps. Ugh.

Let's make history!  Hahaha...I love extreme wx...


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#136
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:26 AM

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Let's make history!  Hahaha...I love extreme wx...


I totally agree. I’m really not rooting for the cold. But if we’re gonna do it let’s do it right. If it’s gonna be cold let’s get COLD.
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#137
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:29 AM

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Gem has temps below zero for MN next weekend

#138
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Ouch. 2m temps don’t get above freezing here thru hr 222 so far on the GFS and GEM.

Attached Files



#139
Hoosier

Posted 31 March 2018 - 09:08 AM

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Going out on a limb against all the talk in here and say that Marshall manages to escape any additional measurable snowfall. Already my grid for the upcoming week is full of RN/SN crud. We dip into the 20's some nights when it's clear, but not quite cold enuff aloft during the moisture periods to be legit snowfall. Same story as the past 40+ days really. True winter exited here on or about St. Valentine's Day. Ever since, we've been living in a nether world that I can only term Wx Purgatory. Winter for mby was approximately 2 mos from Dec 7th to Feb 14th. During that period, snowfall was substantial but the regular complete torch-offs and the manner in which they happened really pulls the grade down from what it could've been.


I'd be shocked if you don't get any more measurable snowfall. Whether it's anything significant is another matter. There's always the question of what individual storms will do but overall this pattern is about as wintry of a look as I've ever seen at this time of year (I am around Tom's age fwiw)
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#140
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 09:37 AM

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#Snowmagedon...nature waited till April this year...

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  • Attached File  1.gif   75.87KB   0 downloads


#141
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 March 2018 - 09:42 AM

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For my northern friends.

Attached File  FB_IMG_1522518003489.jpg   50.78KB   0 downloads
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#142
james1976

Posted 31 March 2018 - 11:00 AM

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Trying to catch up a bit in here. Thanks for the maps everyone. Yeah crazy start to April.
I hear tonight there are record lows on the table.
Looks cold for at least first half of April.

#143
bud2380

Posted 31 March 2018 - 12:41 PM

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Don’t look at the euro if you’re tired of snow.

#144
Hawkeye

Posted 31 March 2018 - 12:46 PM

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Latest op Euro 10-day forecast for Minneapolis.  Yikes.

 

Attached File  KMSP_2018033112_forecast_240.png   131.36KB   0 downloads


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#145
GDR

Posted 31 March 2018 - 01:14 PM

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Don’t look at the euro if you’re tired of snow.

yeah I’ve never seen maps like that this winter

#146
Niko

Posted 31 March 2018 - 01:34 PM

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The joy of snow for me is almost entirely watching it fall during the storm. The days that follow really do nothing for me.

Mine has to be when clouds are increasing ahead of a major Winterstorm and also when the first flakes start to fall.



#147
Niko

Posted 31 March 2018 - 01:38 PM

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People get excited over April snow cuz not everybody is like you. Some people enjoy having Winter return, if only for a bit. Yes I'd prefer this pattern to be in December, but I can't control the months.

Ya mean, some people enjoy having Winter return Spring go on a hiatus during Spring season! ;)

 

Btw: snow might be expected in NYC next week as I will be there for Easter....UGH! No escape from this unsettled weather pattern here in the northern tier of the country.



#148
gabel23

Posted 31 March 2018 - 01:39 PM

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Don’t look at the euro if you’re tired of snow.


Can you post it by chance??

#149
Niko

Posted 31 March 2018 - 01:41 PM

Niko

    Advanced Member

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  • LocationMacomb, MI

Looks like rain is about to taper off. Much colder tonight as temps bottom out in the 20s. Some black ice could be possible.



#150
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 March 2018 - 01:48 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

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  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)
Point grid shows 3-5" for my area. And I'll be on a plane. Christ.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM