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April 3rd-4th Plains/GL's Winter Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 03:43 AM

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Folks, Ol' Man Winter is not going into hibernation anytime soon.  While we close out the month of March today, models are dialing in on a potent winter storm....in mid Spring!  Can someone tell the wx God's it's time for some 60's/70's???

 

Last night's 00z Euro laying down a swatch of significant snows across NE/IA/WI into MI.  00z GFS is farther north with the snow.  Who's going to cash in on some more late season snows???

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#2
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 04:42 AM

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6z gfs came in a bit farther north and stronger

12-18 from Appleton up to GB

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#3
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 04:50 AM

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Prob the best storm chasing of the season in the southern MW/OV/Plains...

 

DZnQ8OqVoAAO0Uq.jpg



#4
gosaints

Posted 31 March 2018 - 05:18 AM

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6z gfs came in a bit farther north and stronger

12-18 from Appleton up to GB

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=


Climo for the win?

#5
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:54 AM

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12z gfs a bit farther S

Crushes eastern WI

https://www.tropical...018033112&fh=78

#6
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:55 AM

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Nice hit for Moneyman and Snowshoe per 12z GFS...

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#7
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:57 AM

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Full run...solid major snowstorm in the works...let's go baby!  Put all the naysayers to shame...

 

 

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#8
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:01 AM

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I'm putting this one. Good luck to those in the Northern plains/upper GLs.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#9
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:01 AM

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Let’s do it. Go big or go home.

Money what’s your biggest snowfall of the season? Would be interesting to get the biggest one in early April.

#10
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:04 AM

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Let’s do it. Go big or go home.
Money what’s your biggest snowfall of the season? Would be interesting to get the biggest one in early April.


Like 5-6

We’ve only had like 18 total this year

#11
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:22 AM

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Like 5-6
We’ve only had like 18 total this year


Wow I knew it’s been a struggle there this winter but I didn’t realize it was that bad.

#12
NEJeremy

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:44 AM

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Congrats northern Plains and upper Great Lakes!!



#13
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 09:35 AM

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This might be N/C Wisco's best chance of the year to score a biggie...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_11.png



#14
Illinois_WX

Posted 31 March 2018 - 09:37 AM

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I'm putting this one. Good luck to those in the Northern plains/upper GLs.



Im so behind with this. I see 4" one run now its just all gone? What happened to that secondary southern swath?

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#15
WBadgersW

Posted 31 March 2018 - 09:49 AM

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12z GFS is scary close here. Probably will stay North, but pretty interesting.

#16
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 10:23 AM

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Euro is decent

Not as good as GFS but similar overall

https://weather.us/m...0404-0900z.html

#17
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Euro is decent

Not as good as GFS but similar overall

https://weather.us/m...0404-0900z.html


Euro shows more snow for MKE tho and it actually lines up quite well with th GFS. Most snow 8-12”+ across WI into N MI.

#18
Tom

Posted 31 March 2018 - 10:44 AM

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Jackpot zone is near Traverse City, MI with 12-16”...history repeats itself? Shades of 1975..:

#19
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Yeah it’s not bad

Looks like a general 5-8

#20
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:38 PM

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Def shift north in the last couple model runs

Some gfs ensembles had sub 990’s into southern WI

#21
Money

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:54 PM

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0z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Not much room for error here but SPS and gosaints look solid

#22
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:27 PM

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Folks, Ol' Man Winter is not going into hibernation anytime soon.  While we close out the month of March today, models are dialing in on a potent winter storm....in mid Spring!  Can someone tell the wx God's it's time for some 60's/70's???

 

Last night's 00z Euro laying down a swatch of significant snows across NE/IA/WI into MI.  00z GFS is farther north with the snow.  Who's going to cash in on some more late season snows???

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Cant believe this. Really? One going just south the next going just north of Omaha?


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#23
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:32 PM

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I'll take all the snow on Tuesday, please.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#24
Tom

Posted 01 April 2018 - 02:36 AM

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Cant believe this. Really? One going just south the next going just north of Omaha?

The beat goes on for OMA...it's been the pattern all season...except for a couple systems.



#25
Tom

Posted 01 April 2018 - 02:47 AM

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06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#26
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 04:56 AM

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Gosaints and Money smasher on deck...unless you believe the NAM. I bet watches are posted this afternoon.

#27
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 05:49 AM

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Latest graphic from MPX

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#28
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:38 AM

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12z NAM with a 10” hit for the TC. The main issue will be that a lot of the snowfall will occur during the day. Hard to believe in the upper totals.

#29
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:41 AM

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NAM has always been the northern tier for this system

It’s also weaker with the strength

#30
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 07:49 AM

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Gfs down to 992 just north of Chicago

Tad north from 6z about the same as 0z

1.4-1.6 QPF showing up just south of GB

https://www.tropical...018040112&fh=66

#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 April 2018 - 08:19 AM

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GFS goes from slotting us to giving us rain. It's a leap towards Euro and even if we don't get snow I'll take rain seeing as it's April.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#32
gosaints

Posted 01 April 2018 - 08:32 AM

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Gfs down to 992 just north of Chicago

Tad north from 6z about the same as 0z

1.4-1.6 QPF showing up just south of GB

https://www.tropical...018040112&fh=66


You buy?

#33
jaster220

Posted 01 April 2018 - 09:28 AM

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Jackpot zone is near Traverse City, MI with 12-16”...history repeats itself? Shades of 1975..:


Not quite amigo. April '75 storm tracked into W PA and bullseyed Chicago and SMI vs TC and NMI. I chased March 5th, 2012 that did bullseye TC since that winter left us downstate yearning. Currently, being April, I'm more likely to chase sunshine or warmth. Glad this isn't looking to be a repeat of April '75 tbh

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#34
Tom

Posted 01 April 2018 - 09:36 AM

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Not quite amigo. April '75 storm tracked into W PA and bullseyed Chicago and SMI vs TC and NMI. I chased March 5th, 2012 that did bullseye TC since that winter left us downstate yearning. Currently, being April, I'm more likely to chase sunshine or warmth. Glad this isn't looking to be a repeat of April '75 tbh


What I meant to say was, TC looks to be the jackpot zone with this system. N MI crush jobs in the works.
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#35
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 01:08 PM

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18z NAM with a huge shift south....like 100 miles with the heaviest snow. 12k with an MSP jack zone. 3km much more realistic but still a very nice hit for MN and WI.

6-9” in the point.

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#36
WBadgersW

Posted 01 April 2018 - 01:49 PM

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I'll take the 18z GFS + 30 miles South.

#37
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:11 PM

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18z NAM with a huge shift south....like 100 miles with the heaviest snow. 12k with an MSP jack zone. 3km much more realistic but still a very nice hit for MN and WI.
6-9” in the point.


Looks like 0z nam taking another shift south which isn’t too surprising

#38
gosaints

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:16 PM

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Looks like 0z nam taking another shift south which isn’t too surprising


God awful model....

#39
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:20 PM

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It’s the worst. Compare the snow shield so far on the 0z compared to the 12z. It’s a few hundred miles apart. Laughable.

#40
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:25 PM

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This is going to be one prolonged event. Might even prevent some of the offfices from issuing watches/warnings . Could be advisory level snows due to the duration.

#41
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:25 PM

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It’s the worst. Compare the snow shield so far on the 0z compared to the 12z. It’s a few hundred miles apart. Laughable.


Yup

Gfs/euro have been pretty steady for the most part on this

#42
gosaints

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:29 PM

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This is going to be one prolonged event. Might even prevent some of the offfices from issuing watches/warnings . Could be advisory level snows due to the duration.


LA crosse is riding that leaning towards advisories.

#43
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:32 PM

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Nam goes from zero last run to 7.5 this run for my area

Probably looking at a solid 3-5 type snowfall

http://www.pivotalwe...7&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#44
gosaints

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:36 PM

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Nam goes from zero last run to 7.5 this run for my area

Probably looking at a solid 3-5 type snowfall

http://www.pivotalwe...7&r=us_mw&dpdt=

It's April now probably really struggle to accumulate during the day!

#45
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:36 PM

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I’m riding the line here for a good hit. Can’t take too many more major shifts south though. S MN over to the GB area gonna do best it appears. I’ll go with 3.5” here, which is the average total for all of April.

#46
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:37 PM

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It's April now probably really struggle to accumulate during the day!


That’s only for Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska

#47
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:38 PM

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That’s only for Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska

And everywhere else in the world except Fond Du Lac/Oshkosh.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#48
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:39 PM

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And everywhere else in the world except Fond Du Lac/Oshkosh.


Well we know you don’t get snow so we don’t have to worry about your area

#49
gosaints

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:40 PM

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That’s only for Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska



Long duration light mod rates could actually have an impact with this one.

#50
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:42 PM

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Long duration light mod rates could actually have an impact with this one.


That’s why I’m going with the 3-5 type amounts and not the 7-11 type amounts models are showing