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April 3rd-4th Plains/GL's Winter Storm

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#51
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:47 PM

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Long duration light mod rates could actually have an impact with this one.

That’s why I’m going with the 3-5 type amounts and not the 7-11 type amounts models are showing


Yeah I’m not buying those big totals. 3-5” across the board is a safe call.

#52
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:51 PM

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Well we know you don’t get snow so we don’t have to worry about your area

Snowlover's gone. We get snow now.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#53
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 07:53 PM

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0z gfs increased totals a bit and bit farther south

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#54
Money

Posted 01 April 2018 - 08:17 PM

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GEM with a lot more moisture than previous runs

Pretty much identical to gfs

#55
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 April 2018 - 08:49 PM

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0z gfs increased totals a bit and bit farther south

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=


Winter 2013-14 in a nutshell in that map only Iowa gets screwed with us.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#56
Tom

Posted 02 April 2018 - 03:27 AM

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A solid snowstorm in the works from S MN thru N MI...might be the best snowfall of the season for GoSaints/Money/Snowshoe???

 

Tab3FileL.png?bfde4645841a68f3a0b899b60f

 

 

Tab3FileL.png?0e1fc25f1e66f18f38dcb9d39c



#57
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 04:13 AM

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I bled the gas out of the snowblower after the 4” I got on Saturday morning. Whoops. Let’s do this, but let’s make this the last one for the season.
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#58
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 04:17 AM

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The 06z model runs really seem to be decreasing the total snowfall. Some places in S MN/ N IA that were showing 8-10” previously are now showing 4”.

#59
gosaints

Posted 02 April 2018 - 04:24 AM

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The 06z model runs really seem to be decreasing the total snowfall. Some places in S MN/ N IA that were showing 8-10” previously are now showing 4”.


Close your eyes and ride the rgem

#60
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 04:33 AM

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Close your eyes and ride the rgem


Yeah I just looked. I think you’re in the best spot. 6+” looking likely by you. I’m still thinking 3-4” here although the forecast calls for more than that. Like usual, it’s all about where the banding sets up.

#61
Madtown

Posted 02 April 2018 - 06:07 AM

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Wow wwa for me....4in!
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#62
Money

Posted 02 April 2018 - 06:16 AM

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Nam hits SPS and gosaints well

#63
Money

Posted 02 April 2018 - 06:24 AM

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12z NAM

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

9 for SPS
10 for gosaints
9 for me
5 for Madtown

Jump from 6z

#64
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 06:42 AM

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12z NAM
http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=
9 for SPS
10 for gosaints
9 for me
5 for Madtown
Jump from 6z

MPX called the NAM ‘overzealous’ this morning. It’s a bad model but it’s sometimes good enough to see a trend before the others. I’m still not buying into it but it appears a few of us are going to do well with this.

#65
jaster220

Posted 02 April 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Looking solid across the highlands of NMI. Typically that region does awesome with these shoulder season systems. Some will be getting April sledding in after March was a dud for snow cover. A serious storm like this will bring trees down tho, so no doubt some trail riders will have that issue to deal with.

 

Attached File  20180402 APX Snowfall for NMI.png   413.8KB   1 downloads

 

 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#66
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 08:26 AM

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No significant changes on the GFS or GEM from what I can tell. Locked and loaded? Snow moving in rapidly on the metro.
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#67
WBadgersW

Posted 02 April 2018 - 09:09 AM

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Slowly baby stepping down here. Might be able score 4 or 5".

#68
gosaints

Posted 02 April 2018 - 09:17 AM

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No significant changes on the GFS or GEM from what I can tell. Locked and loaded? Snow moving in rapidly on the metro.


Dry air here. Probably a good thing though

#69
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 09:25 AM

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Visibilities to the west down to around 1/4 mi. Flakes starting here. HRRR bumping totals a bit with wave 1 this afternoon. We’ll see.

#70
Stormgeek

Posted 02 April 2018 - 09:43 AM

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First wave just starting here. Radar looks pretty good out west. Let the fun(?) begin.



#71
Snowshoe

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:06 AM

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One minute left in the game. Down by 20. Do we run the clock out or throw the ball and pad our stats?

 

LaCrosse to Green Bay has missed the brunt of the snow this winter. Can't decide if i want that trend to continue or do I want a big snow to pad the stats and get closer to average.


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Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#72
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:06 AM

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Legit snow right now. And the wind is howling. Good stuff.

Stormgeek you have large flakes up by you? I’m surprised at how big they are here.
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#73
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:15 AM

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Cold temps the last few days aiding in accums on the driveway. I thought the April sun would have warmed it enough to prevent accums during the day but that’s not the case.
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#74
Stormgeek

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:39 AM

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Cold temps the last few days aiding in accums on the driveway. I thought the April sun would have warmed it enough to prevent accums during the day but that’s not the case.

Yup, pretty good size and they are really coming down here right now.



#75
james1976

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:04 AM

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Winter Storm Warning for the county north of me. I imagine DMX will put my county in a WWA.
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#76
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:46 AM

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MPX pulled the trigger on a warning just south of St Paul. An advisory here for 6-9” localized up to 10” through Wed morning with gusts to 35mph.
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#77
Stormgeek

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:47 AM

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I am still baffled as to why the point forecasts have a range of 6-12 around here. That seems way too high for this event. With how things have been I feel like 6 inches should be the top of the range... I know it is long duration, but don't see the high totals materializing...



#78
james1976

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:54 AM

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La Crosse has 6-10 with iso 12 for SE MN into C WI.

#79
james1976

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:55 AM

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WWA for my area. 2-5" and a light glaze of ice. 40mph wind gusts as well.

#80
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:56 AM

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18z NAM coming in hot through hour 16 . Surprise.

#81
Snowshoe

Posted 02 April 2018 - 12:15 PM

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I am still baffled as to why the point forecasts have a range of 6-12 around here. That seems way too high for this event. With how things have been I feel like 6 inches should be the top of the range... I know it is long duration, but don't see the high totals materializing...

 

Here's the 90% map from La Crosse.

SnowAmt10Prcntl.png


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#82
Snowshoe

Posted 02 April 2018 - 12:16 PM

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And the 10% chance.

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#83
Money

Posted 02 April 2018 - 12:35 PM

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Under a WWA for 3-9

Nice range...

#84
gosaints

Posted 02 April 2018 - 12:41 PM

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Under a WWA for 3-9

Nice range...


Lol ya. Gonna come down to who gets hit from with both then front and backside. Front zone will be narrow

#85
gosaints

Posted 02 April 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Starting to like a a southern metro jack. Also think money has a shot to score big

#86
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 02:07 PM

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Just under 3” down with wave 1. Currently some freezing rain/snow mix before round 2. A total of 6+” looks like a lock at this point.
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#87
Money

Posted 02 April 2018 - 02:34 PM

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https://www.weather..../SitReport1.pdf

9 inches would be nearly double my highest amount so far this year

#88
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 05:21 PM

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With the 2” or so OTG from Saturday, the 3” that fell earlier, and the 4-6” still to come ...we might have 10” OTG in April. I’m going to say that hasn’t happened in a really long time.

#89
Money

Posted 02 April 2018 - 05:25 PM

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With the 2” or so OTG from Saturday, the 3” that fell earlier, and the 4-6” still to come ...we might have 10” OTG in April. I’m going to say that hasn’t happened in a really long time.


You’ll probably get more snow this weekend too

#90
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 05:33 PM

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You’ll probably get more snow this weekend too

snow totals thru the 15th are ridiculous here and over by you.

Meanwhile my mom is complaining about 90F in Phoenix. O-K.
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#91
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 April 2018 - 06:18 PM

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Been getting pretty solid drizzle for the past 30 minutes. All surfaces are just wet at the moment, even elevated ones. I'd expect that to change by tomorrow morning. May be an ugly commute. 30.4*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#92
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 April 2018 - 06:27 PM

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0z NAMs with a much thinner jack zone from north of Rochester up to the southern TC metro.

#93
gosaints

Posted 02 April 2018 - 06:37 PM

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0z NAMs with a much thinner jack zone from north of Rochester up to the southern TC metro.


Been the jack all winter

#94
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 April 2018 - 02:38 AM

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St Paul and Minneapolis upgraded to a warning. 6-10” in the point today. Might be our biggest storm of the season if you combine with yesterday’s totals. Wowzers.
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#95
Tom

Posted 03 April 2018 - 03:28 AM

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St Paul and Minneapolis upgraded to a warning. 6-10” in the point today. Might be our biggest storm of the season if you combine with yesterday’s totals. Wowzers.

Good luck to you and the rest of you guys up north.


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#96
gosaints

Posted 03 April 2018 - 04:01 AM

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St Paul and Minneapolis upgraded to a warning. 6-10” in the point today. Might be our biggest storm of the season if you combine with yesterday’s totals. Wowzers.


Could be a nasty gradient across the metro

#97
Tom

Posted 03 April 2018 - 04:13 AM

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Could be a nasty gradient across the metro

You got powder flying yet?



#98
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 April 2018 - 04:14 AM

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Could be a nasty gradient across the metro


Wouldn’t be a storm without a gradient right through the metro.

#99
james1976

Posted 03 April 2018 - 04:28 AM

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Low 30s and drizzle here. Still expecting 2-4". Column should cool once the better forcing gets here.

#100
gosaints

Posted 03 April 2018 - 04:32 AM

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You got powder flying yet?


Ya about an inch down.. Rates are not crazy.