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April Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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There’s been a marked change in the seasonal cycle of the WHEM ITCZ in recent years. The whole thing appears to be lagging by ~ 7 weeks, when compared to 30yrs ago. Autumn wavetrains have become more summerlike, and spring wavetrains have become more winterlike.

 

This is (at least) partially responsible why the high Arctic has been blowtorching during the cold season, yet flips into a colder regime during warm season (I suspect).

This pattern feels a little different due to the more expansive nature of the cold. It would be nice to leave the awful warm season patterns of the last five years behind us.

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It is. My comment had nothing to do with the temperature up there.

 

I am impressed that your snowcover lasted the night! You should share one last pic with all of us.

 

I will go out and take a pic.   

 

It looks like snow but its not melting like regular snow.    Its so densely packed. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This pattern feels a little different due to the more expansive nature of the cold. It would be nice to leave the awful warm season patterns of the last five years behind us.

Oh yeah, the spatial orientation of the wavetrain certainly is different now vs 2013-2017. I was just speaking in regards to the seasonal wavenumner/thermal gradient.

 

It’s still transitioning, too. Definitely will be a low frequency affair, it seems. This large scale cold period would have been a western ridgefest just last year..I thought it would lead to ridging again, but the high latitude blocking flat out denied it the necessary tools.

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Been awhile since I’ve busted a subseasonal forecast on the warm side, lol. Since 2013 my Achilles heel has been underestimating that +NAO/western ridge background state. If that background state has changed, then I’ll have to adjust.

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OT, but the cherry blossoms are coming to life here following those mid/upper 70s a few days ago. We have a pretty big one in our yard, and it’s just starting to open up.

 

I’m a bit worried about the weather over the next 10 days though. Risk of stronger thunderstorms and a pressure surge wind event this week, and then snow is possible this coming weekend. That’s usually not the best combo for the blossoms.

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Yesterday morning...

 

zzz_1.jpg

 

 

And right now...

 

20180403_074434.jpg

What is that red-stemmed shrub you have planted there? Some kind of dwarf Asian maple? Looks like a great way to add some winter color.

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What is that red-stemmed shrub you have planted there? Some kind of dwarf Asian maple? Looks like a great way to add some winter color.

 

I get asked that almost every time I post pictures of the yard.  :)

 

Those are Coral Bark Japanese Maples... we have about 10 of them planted around the yard.   They provide nice contrast with the red bark in the winter and they also look great in the summer.   The leaves are green in the summer and turn brilliant yellow in the fall and last a long time (maybe 6 weeks or more).  

 

They get to be 15-20 feet if you don't keep them trimmed.

 

Here is a picture of generally the same view in mid September... just as they are starting to show some color.

 

21427202_1442365062498364_74957726764380

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What is that red-stemmed shrub you have planted there? Some kind of dwarf Asian maple? Looks like a great way to add some winter color.

Looks like coral bark maple to me.  I have one in my yard!  It's awesome in the winter.  I also have a  Chief Joseph Pine that turns bright yellow over winter, then back to green in the summer.

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Here is another picture from later in the spring... the tree behind the umbrella is another Coral Bark Japanese Maple.     This picture was taken on 5/4/17. 

 

We also planted numerous red leaf maples to provide the red contrast during the summer.   Those trees have regular bark and look sort of dull in the winter when the coral bark trees look so nice with the bright red bark.

 

18238143_1316973178370887_38765557478755

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I get asked that almost every time I post pictures of the yard. :)

 

Those are Coral Bark Japanese Maples... we have about 10 of them planted around the yard. They provide nice contrast with the red bark in the winter and they also look great in the summer. The leaves are green in the summer and turn brilliant yellow in the fall and last a long time (maybe 6 weeks or more).

 

They get to be 15-20 feet if you don't keep them trimmed.

 

Here is a picture of generally the same view in mid September... just as they are starting to show some color.

 

21427202_1442365062498364_74957726764380

Awesome, thanks man. After such a cold, dull, dead start to 2018, we’re thinking about doing some landscaping to mix things up a bit. This would be a nice addition.

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Looks like coral bark maple to me. I have one in my yard! It's awesome in the winter. I also have a Chief Joseph Pine that turns bright yellow over winter, then back to green in the summer.

Chief Joseph Pine? I’ll have to google that one. I don’t think I’ve encountered those growing on our clients’ properties, so I’m not sure they grow here, but it sounds like an awesome species.

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Awesome, thanks man. After such a cold, dull, dead start to 2018, we’re thinking about doing some landscaping to mix things up a bit. This would be a nice addition.

 

They are not as cold tolerant as other maples.   I know they cannot survive in Minnesota.   They probably can make it there though.   I think they suffer when it goes below zero.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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They are not as cold tolerant as other maples. I know they cannot survive in Minnesota.

I suspect we’re far enough south, but I haven’t seen those coral bark maples planted here, so I’ll have to check. When it gets super cold here it’s usually very short lived..lasts a few days then rebounds.

 

The bigger problem our clients run into is having trees wake up during “false springs” only to have them them die back when the cold returns. A few years of false springs and non-native trees/shrubs start to die. It’s been a massive problem this year. Dieback all over the place.

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I suspect we’re far enough south, but I haven’t seen those coral bark maples planted here, so I’ll have to check. When it gets super cold here it’s usually very short lived.

 

The bigger problem our clients run into is having trees wake up during “false springs” only to have them them die back when the cold returns. A few years of false springs and non-native trees/shrubs start to die. It’s been a massive problem this year. Dieback all over the place.

 

We have numerous shrubs that were leafing out in late January and early February... then when returned from Hawaii they looked dormant again after that cold spell.   I thought they were going to be in trouble this year but now they are leafing out again.    I did not even think that was possible.    I am pleasantly surprised. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We have numerous shrubs that were leafing out in late January and early February... then when returned from Hawaii they looked dormant again after that cold spell.   I thought they were going to be in trouble this year but now they are leafing out again.    I did not even think that was possible.    I am pleasantly surprised. 

 

By "leafing out" do you mean budding? I can imagine shrubs rebounding from budding a bit too early. But once a plant has fully committed to producing actual leaves for the season it would be pretty unusual to see them step back from that, then start all over a few months later.

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By "leafing out" do you mean budding? I can imagine shrubs rebounding from budding a bit too early. But once a plant has fully committed to producing actual leaves for the season it would be pretty unusual to see them step back from that, then start all over a few months later.

Actual leaves.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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By "leafing out" do you mean budding? I can imagine shrubs rebounding from budding a bit too early. But once a plant has fully committed to producing actual leaves for the season it would be pretty unusual to see them step back from that, then start all over a few months later.

Yeah, once committed to leafout, it seems diebacks and restarts become more problematic. Often times, I’ve seen the entirety of the previous year’s growth killed, and sometimes it’s worse. Growing brand new shoots requires much more energy than starting from preconditioned buds.

 

I’ve personally noticed that most species can handle maybe a year or two of these post-leafout restarts, but after that, they start to succumb to stress.

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Here is a picture from early February of these shrubs leafing out... then by March 1st they looked all brown again.   Now they look like this again.

 

20180206_101725.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here is a picture from early February of these shrubs leafing out... then by March 1st they looked all brown again. Now they look like this again.

 

20180206_101725.jpg

What shrubs are those? I can’t tell.

 

There are some woody native shrubs and some black willow species which started leafing out here in February, as well. The former died back and restarted, but the willows are super Sun-sensitive, so they always start leafing out in February.

 

In warm years like 2011/12, the willows along the Potomac river can hold their leaves until December, and regain them in early February.

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You always seem surprised (and sort of annoyed) when its cloudy and warmer up here are night. But it happens all the time... we are usually closer to the storm track. We also have gaps our mountains which plays a key role in the winter. You probably get more clear nights down there in the spring so its built into your averages.

 

I think the average low here is around 38 or 39 for April. The average low in the Snoqualmie Valley never goes below 32... it bottoms out at 32.7 in January.

 

You just assume we are farther north so it must always be colder. Not true... although that is usually the case in the summer.

 

I just looked it up. Average low at Silver Falls for this date is 33, by the end of the month that will climb to 36. Record low for today's date is 24, so its just consistently cool here this time of year. 

 

I guess I just assume you would be significantly colder than Seattle. As I am significantly colder than the Willamette Valley. Seattle is one of the milder locations in the western lowlands of the PNW, but I would think your averages would be at least near Olympia or Arlington given your elevation and distance from the water, and in terms of low temps it seems you run warmer than them.

 

Also there are some days you are cloudier and hence warmer, but I don't think that necessarily explains it as our average precip is probably about the same (77" annually here.). Summers and early fall are likely much drier/sunnier here though, I would agree with that.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Actual leaves.

 

There is nothing leafing out at my house. Down on the Willamette River at my office the poplars are leafing, that's it. This is about the same time they leafed out last year. In 2015 they were leafing out by the end of February.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Tim’s yard is like some sort of Eden that defies all normal plant behavior.

 

Maybe the highest end fertilizers are just that good.

Are you referring to these shrubs specifically?

 

That is what happened. I thought they died and now they are leafing out again. I am not sure how to explain it... other than maybe the leaves close up when it gets really cold. I have never seen them do this before... and they don't appear to open and close on a whim but maybe they have a protective mechanism for a really cold stretch since they also seem to be able to leaf out really early.

 

You act like I am making it up. I am just trying to understand what I am seeing. They leafed out in early February and then looked dormant in early March and are now leafing out again in early April. That happened.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There is nothing leafing out at my house. Down on the Willamette River at my office the poplars are leafing, that's it. This is about the same time they leafed out last year. In 2015 they were leafing out by the end of February.

Our alders are all leafing out now here. In North Bend, there are many types of trees starting to leaf out. Very small leaves which looks like a greenish hue from distance.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And then another snowstorm next week? Lol, will winter ever end?

 

At the very least, we can all be thankful that we don’t live in N/NE Canada. Looks worse than last year up there, when it was snowing in Quebec in July.

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Are you referring to these shrubs specifically?

 

That is what happened. I thought they died and now they are leafing out again. I am not sure how to explain it... other than maybe the leaves close up when it gets really cold. I have never seen them do this before... and they don't appear to open and close on a whim but maybe they have a protective mechanism for a really cold stretch since they also seem to be able to leaf out really early.

 

You act like I am making it up. I am just trying to understand what I am seeing. They leafed out in early February and then looked dormant in early March and are now leafing out again in early April. That happened.

Your guess is as good as mine.

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There’s been a marked change in the seasonal cycle of the WHEM ITCZ in recent years. The whole thing appears to be lagging by ~ 7 weeks, when compared to 30yrs ago. Autumn wavetrains have become more summerlike, and spring wavetrains have become more winterlike.

 

This is (at least) partially responsible why the high Arctic has been blowtorching during the cold season, yet flips into a colder regime during warm season (I suspect).

 

Very interesting info. I didn't know about this. 

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The last few GFS runs have hinted at Friday getting close to 70 down here with warm southerly flow, as the baroclinic band lifts north temporarily.

 

If we did hit 70, that would be a pretty odd way to do it this time of year. More of a mid-Octoberish setup.

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Rhodies blooming down the road... with remnant snow on the ground.

 

(and another Coral Bark Japanese Maple)

 

20180403_104145.jpg

What the heck! Rhodies don’t bloom until late April/May in the Willamette Valley. Up here more towards the end of May.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What the heck! Rhodies don’t bloom until late April/May in the Willamette Valley. Up here more towards the end of May.

 

They have a variety planted along the roads up here that typically bloom by late February or early March.    The rhodies we have planted in our yard bloom in May as usual.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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They have a variety planted along the roads up here that typically bloom by late February or early March. The rhodies we have planted in our yard bloom in May as usual.

There are thousands of varieties that bloom from February thru June. One of my customers has a couple hundred and he documents their bloom time each spring. They were about 3 weeks late last year. Haven’t asked him how they are doing this year.
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