April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

GFS ensembles now say the last part of April could torch pretty hard. Nice work guys!

 

[Jesse]

Our climate is becoming more continental. Cooler drier winters, hotter drier summers.

Minus the cooler drier winters part. Winters have become wetter and warmer.

[Deweydog]

The Euro is clearly leading the way.

[Jesse]

The Euro is clearly leading the way.

Time for a rhetorical role reversal!

[TT-SEA]

Crisis averted!   ECMWF to the rescue.  

 

[Jesse]

At least PDX hit the 30s this morning. Probably the last time until mid-December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

GFS ensembles now say the last part of April could torch pretty hard. Nice work guys!

The models will be on this bender for awhile, too. No modeled pattern is safe beyond day 4.

[Jesse]

The models will be on this bender for awhile, too. No modeled pattern is safe beyond day 4.

I just threw up a little.

 

*EDIT*

 

A lot.

[Jesse]

The Euro is basically warm all week next week even if it isn’t quite as crazy as the GFS.

 

I know some won’t be happy unless the rest of the month is sunny and above 75 without a single cloud drifting over their patio, but that will be a pretty solid April warm spell even if we do get a horrifying crash toward the end. To be expected following an April warm event, really. I think April 2016 softened people.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What a gorgeous sunny day! Nothing better than having your lunch outside on a day like this.

[TT-SEA]

The Euro is basically warm all week next week even if it isn’t quite as crazy as the GFS.

 

I know some won’t be happy unless the rest of the month is sunny and above 75 without a single cloud drifting over their patio, but that will be a pretty solid April warm spell even if we do get a horrifying crash toward the end. To be expected following an April warm event, really. I think April 2016 softened people.

 

I don't really care that much about temperatures at this point... I just wanted the rain to stop.   That is a pretty reasonable expectation after getting more than 14 inches of rain in the first half of April.   Sorry that you find that so appalling.   

[Geos]

That sun is really warm now. Fast approaching 60.

Got a thin long sleeved shirt on, but even that's way too warm now.

[Front Ranger]

I don't really care that much about temperatures at this point... I just wanted the rain to stop.   That is a pretty reasonable expectation after getting more than 14 inches of rain in the first half of April.   Sorry that you find that so appalling.   

 

This map will probably look a lot worse by the end of the month.

 

[Front Ranger]

Rainless streak at SEA is up to 48 hours. This will be their 6th day this month with no measurable precip. And many more to come.

[MossMan]

I don't really care that much about temperatures at this point... I just wanted the rain to stop. That is a pretty reasonable expectation after getting more than 14 inches of rain in the first half of April. Sorry that you find that so appalling.

Exactly! I don’t care if it’s 50 or 90 degrees as long as it’s dry. Even Cliff Mass’s son is threatening to move to Southern California it’s been so bad!

[Phil]

Rainless streak at SEA is up to 48 hours. This will be their 6th day this month with no measurable precip. And many more to come.

Tim!!!!!

[Front Ranger]

Tim!!!!!

You're such a sleuth.

[Front Ranger]

Exactly! I don’t care if it’s 50 or 90 degrees as long as it’s dry. Even Cliff Mass’s son is threatening to move to Southern California it’s been so bad!

 

His son is threatening to leave because of a couple wet weeks in April? I'm guessing there's some father/son issues at play here...

[Jesse]

EPS moved toward the warmer solutions.

[Geos]

 

His son is threatening to leave because of a couple wet weeks in April? I'm guessing there's some father/son issues at play here...

 

Yeah really. A wetter than normal April is not the full story. 

[TT-SEA]

This map will probably look a lot worse by the end of the month.

 

12mPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

 

So... is there some map you can produce that will make the 14 inches of relentless rain here during first half of April look below normal and dry?   You have changed my mind... I don't really want the rain to stop now!  I hate going outside and not getting drenched.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah really. A wetter than normal April is not the full story.

I am guessing that his son does not like our rainy climate and this month just reinforced that feeling.

[Front Ranger]

So... is there some map you can produce that will make the 14 inches of relentless rain here during first half of April look below normal and dry?   You have changed my mind... I don't really want the rain to stop now!  I hate going outside and not getting drenched.

 

I am not here to change your mind. Only broaden your horizons.

 

Most the PNW is already below normal precip for the past year, and it's likely that will be expanding in coming weeks.

[Front Ranger]

I am guessing that his son does not like our rainy climate and this month just reinforced that feeling.

 

Eh, Cliff Mass also said he'd see if his son could get him a ticket to SoCal as well. He probably wasn't serious.

 

Like you, a lot of people probably have short term feelings like that when they get fed up with the rain, but they realize it really isn't that bad most the time (and the dry season can't be beat) and stick around...just like you. 

[TT-SEA]

I am not here to change your mind. Only broaden your horizons.

 

Most the PNW is already below normal precip for the past year, and it's likely that will be expanding in coming weeks.

 

Great.

 

Tell me about Southern California too.   Maybe China?

 

SEA is 7 inches above normal for the rainy season.   WFO SEA is 8 inches above normal.   OLM is almost 7.5 inches above normal.

 

And this is already a top tier wet April.   

 

Its been wet.    I would like it to be dry now.    That is what I said.   What happens in Oregon or Timbuktu does not change that feeling.  

[TT-SEA]

Eh, Cliff Mass also said he'd see if his son could get him a ticket to SoCal as well. He probably wasn't serious.

 

Like you, a lot of people probably have short term feelings like that when they get fed up with the rain, but they realize it really isn't that bad most the time (and the dry season can't be beat) and stick around...just like you. 

 

Indeed.

[Front Ranger]

Great.

 

Tell me about Southern California too.   Maybe China?

 

SEA is 7 inches above normal for the rainy season.   WFO SEA is 8 inches above normal.   OLM is almost 7.5 inches above normal.

 

And this is already a top tier wet April.   

 

Its been wet.    I would like it to be dry now.    That is what I said.   What happens in Oregon or Timbuktu does not change that feeling.  

 

SEA is less than 10% above normal for the past year, a longer time frame than Oct 1. The past year has not been an extremely wet one, even for just your area. Food for thought.

 

And in a couple weeks, the areas that are below normal precip for the past year may spread uncomfortably close to King Country!

[Deweydog]

The Euro is basically warm all week next week even if it isn’t quite as crazy as the GFS.

 

I know some won’t be happy unless the rest of the month is sunny and above 75 without a single cloud drifting over their patio, but that will be a pretty solid April warm spell even if we do get a horrifying crash toward the end. To be expected following an April warm event, really. I think April 2016 softened people.

Two peas...

[TT-SEA]

SEA is less than 10% above normal for the past year, a longer time frame than Oct 1. The past year has not been an extremely wet one, even for just your area. Food for thought.

 

And in a couple weeks, the areas that are below normal precip for the past year may spread uncomfortably close to King Country!

 

Last summer is sort of irrelevant now after another abnormally wet rainy season.     The dry weather last summer was just balancing out the wettest rainy season in history in 2016-17.    And the wettest rainy season in history the year before that in 2015-16.

 

Its been extremely wet overall since 2014.     But if we just pick out the dry periods in that time frame then you make it look dry.   I just took out all the days with snow this winter and determined that we just finished a snowless winter here.   Not one flake!  

[TT-SEA]

Its been a wet April.   But I hope it keeps raining here because that will help Arizona.   

 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is less than 10% above normal for the past year, a longer time frame than Oct 1. The past year has not been an extremely wet one, even for just your area. Food for thought.

 

 

Shall we go out even longer?   Here is the last 3 years.   Its been a little wet in western Washington.    That is where I live.  

 

[Front Ranger]

Last summer is sort of irrelevant now after another abnormally wet rainy season.     The dry weather last summer was just balancing out the wettest rainy season in history in 2016-17.    And the wettest rainy season in history the year before that in 2015-16.

 

Its been extremely wet overall since 2014.     But if we just pick out the dry periods in that time frame then you make it look dry.   I just took out all the days with snow this winter and determined that we just finished a snowless winter here.   Not one flake!  

 

What you are describing is cherry-picking. Looking at the past year is not cherry-picking.

 

It's been a fairly balanced year overall, even for your area, but for other areas it's definitely been on the dry side.

[Front Ranger]

Shall we go out even longer?   Here is the last 3 years.   Its been a little wet in western Washington.    That is where I live.  

 

 

It's more instructive to use % of normal precip.

 

And yes...you have kept us well-informed of the 2014-17 period. But we've seen some changes over the past year...it's not a static state.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a great day to be alive

[Front Ranger]

What a great day to be alive

 

More exclamation points, please.

[TT-SEA]

What you are describing is cherry-picking. Looking at the past year is not cherry-picking.

 

It's been a fairly balanced year overall, even for your area, but for other areas it's definitely been on the dry side.

 

 

My comment about not being concerned about temperatures and just wanting the rain to stop was entirely related to what has happened this month.   

 

You are cherry picking if you come up with any way to make this month seem dry.    Its been comically wet and I am glad to see its turning drier now so we can actually get outside.   About time.   Leave it at that. 

[Phil]

What a great day to be alive

What are you on, man? I want some.

[TT-SEA]

What are you on, man? I want some.

 

No doubt.   

[Jesse]

Two peas...

Seems like a small lunch. Are you finally doing that diet?