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April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#3951
Timmy

Posted 29 April 2018 - 04:02 PM

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Sounds like you basically want this to be a different climate than it is. Good luck with all of that!

lol pot, kettle. Cold anomalies ftw!
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#3952
Jesse

Posted 29 April 2018 - 04:36 PM

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lol pot, kettle. Cold anomalies ftw!


Screw snow.
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#3953
MossMan

Posted 29 April 2018 - 06:52 PM

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Screw snow.

https://youtu.be/IPKs2Quk6Ts

#3954
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 29 April 2018 - 07:10 PM

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Had some rain today. Got quite a bit of yardwork done. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3955
MossMan

Posted 29 April 2018 - 07:17 PM

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Had some rain today. Got quite a bit of yardwork done.

Sounds fun!

#3956
El Nina

Posted 29 April 2018 - 07:46 PM

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Had some rain today. Got quite a bit of yardwork done.

That's not possible, you'd get too miserable. Liar.
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#3957
Front Ranger

Posted 29 April 2018 - 08:45 PM

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SEA blew their chance to add to their April rain totals today.


It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#3958
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 29 April 2018 - 11:26 PM

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Doesn't look like much more rain here for quite a while. We should be pretty well-shadowed tomorrow.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3959
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 05:59 AM

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00Z EPS is quite cool in the 12-15 day period.    I expect a 2-3 week troughy period during the second half of May and maybe into early June.



#3960
Farmboy

Posted 30 April 2018 - 06:58 AM

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00Z EPS is quite cool in the 12-15 day period.    I expect a 2-3 week troughy period during the second half of May and maybe into early June.

 

 

You "expect" ?  That's quite a heapin' helpin' of confidence considering that's 288 hrs out to 1,000+ hrs....  I hope you're wrong.


"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#3961
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:06 AM

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You "expect" ?  That's quite a heapin' helpin' of confidence considering that's 288 hrs out to 1,000+ hrs....  I hope you're wrong.

 

Its not entirely based on the models... but also history.     



#3962
jcmcgaffey

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:37 AM

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SEA blew their chance to add to their April rain totals today.


Wasn’t much rain yesterday .10-.20 around the seattle area but really surprised SEA didn’t see anything. There were a couple showers that went directly over Seatac.

#3963
jcmcgaffey

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Its not entirely based on the models... but also history.


Ya I feel I can guess the general upcoming pattern by assuming the general ebb and flow of trough to ridge which each one can last 2-3 weeks. However, the details within each ebb and flow can really affect the actual situation. I am going down to the Oregon coast the last week of June and I am thinking there is a good chance of a ridgy pattern at that point by figuring after this week we will be in a more trough pattern till mid June then switching over to a more ridgy pattern. It is just my own general assumptions but has been fairly accurate over the years.

#3964
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:24 AM

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00Z EPS is quite cool in the 12-15 day period. I expect a 2-3 week troughy period during the second half of May and maybe into early June.


Looks more like a period of ULLs/cutoffs to me following the initiation of the anticyclonic wavebreaking.

Tropical forcing isn’t favorable for *longwave* western troughing until late in May, into June (IMO). I’m not sure how fast the intraseasonal forcing cycle will be, but the ridging might not return until mid or late June this year.

#3965
Farmboy

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:25 AM

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Ya I feel I can guess the general upcoming pattern by assuming the general ebb and flow of trough to ridge which each one can last 2-3 weeks. However, the details within each ebb and flow can really affect the actual situation. I am going down to the Oregon coast the last week of June and I am thinking there is a good chance of a ridgy pattern at that point by figuring after this week we will be in a more trough pattern till mid June then switching over to a more ridgy pattern. It is just my own general assumptions but has been fairly accurate over the years.


I would actually look at some 5 day forecasts just before going to the coast if I were you, but being the end of June, you should be ok...
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#3966
jcmcgaffey

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:31 AM

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I would actually look at some 5 day forecasts just before going to the coast if I were you, but being the end of June, you should be ok...


Of course. I always love monitoring the weather before I go down. It is a few weeks before our summer ridge usually develops so hopefully our weather turns out nice. I enjoy a few days of rain/misty fog but if the whole week ends up that way it would be disappointing.

#3967
MossMan

Posted 30 April 2018 - 09:02 AM

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Think I will change my name to HeavyDrizzle!

#3968
Front Ranger

Posted 30 April 2018 - 09:11 AM

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12z GFS keeps most the region dry through Sunday afternoon, then looks like some convection for OR mainly.


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It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#3969
MossMan

Posted 30 April 2018 - 09:53 AM

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12z GFS keeps most the region dry through Sunday afternoon, then looks like some convection for OR mainly.

Perfection!

#3970
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Cue the jaws music..here comes the swamp.

https://mobile.twitt...926398545170432

#3971
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:37 AM

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I will gladly take the 12Z ECMWF for the weekend. Weak marine push Friday but then then the weekend is mostly sunny and warm.
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#3972
Geos

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:44 AM

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Not a terrible day today. Had a few sprinkles a couple hours ago but overall pretty dry. Looking forward to the 60s tomorrow. Bottomed out at 46 this morning. 


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 7.61", 2/28

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.3"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#3973
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Looks like this month will end up with the third warmest average April minimum in PDX history (45.4)

First is 2016 (47.0) and second is 1992 (46.5)
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#3974
Geos

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:16 PM

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Sun is trying to come out. Up to 58. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 7.61", 2/28

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.3"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#3975
Front Ranger

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:36 PM

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Wasn’t much rain yesterday .10-.20 around the seattle area but really surprised SEA didn’t see anything. There were a couple showers that went directly over Seatac.

 

Looks like Seattle WFO only saw .01" yesterday.

 

So as it turns out, SEA hasn't seen measurable precip since Saturday night. And Friday was almost completely dry.

 

All in all, a drier than normal second half of the month for the region, following a very wet first half. Except for MossDrizzleMan's house, of course.

 

Attached File  14dPNormWRCC-NW.png   126.33KB   0 downloads


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It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#3976
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:50 PM

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Looks like Seattle WFO only saw .01" yesterday.

 

So as it turns out, SEA hasn't seen measurable precip since Saturday night. And Friday was almost completely dry.

 

All in all, a drier than normal second half of the month for the region, following a very wet first half. Except for MossDrizzleMan's house, of course.

 

attachicon.gif14dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

 

Amazing how it always seems to be wetter than normal to the north and east of Seattle... even during the 'dry' periods.



#3977
Geos

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Looks like Seattle WFO only saw .01" yesterday.

 

So as it turns out, SEA hasn't seen measurable precip since Saturday night. And Friday was almost completely dry.

 

All in all, a drier than normal second half of the month for the region, following a very wet first half. Except for MossDrizzleMan's house, of course.

 

attachicon.gif14dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Got 0.60" of rain over the weekend at my place. Enough rain for the next week. Almost 7" for the month.

I'm somewhere in between the 100-110% range on the map.

 

Snohomish County almost always gets more than anywhere else except when you get down by Olympia and the very South Sound areas.  


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 7.61", 2/28

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.3"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#3978
jcmcgaffey

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:57 PM

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Amazing how it always seems to be wetter than normal to the north and east of Seattle... even during the 'dry' periods.


It was cloudy with off and on rain the entire weekend but didn’t get much measurable rain out of it.

#3979
jcmcgaffey

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:59 PM

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Looks like Seattle WFO only saw .01" yesterday.

So as it turns out, SEA hasn't seen measurable precip since Saturday night. And Friday was almost completely dry.

All in all, a drier than normal second half of the month for the region, following a very wet first half. Except for MossDrizzleMan's house, of course.

14dPNormWRCC-NW.png


I’m surprised WFO only received .01 yesterday too. I was over there Sunday morning and it was raining all morning but was just a extremely light drizzle.

#3980
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 April 2018 - 02:06 PM

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On and off light showers in Dallas. They were a bit more frequent 5 miles southeast of there. 58 right now.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3981
Geos

Posted 30 April 2018 - 02:17 PM

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You can see that cluster of high rainfall totals northeast of Seattle from Saturday morning - Sunday morning.

 

Attached File  04282018rainfall.png   298.47KB   0 downloads

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 7.61", 2/28

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.3"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#3982
MossMan

Posted 30 April 2018 - 02:50 PM

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You can see that cluster of high rainfall totals northeast of Seattle from Saturday morning - Sunday morning.

04282018rainfall.png

Was in Black Diamond yesterday and there was a massive downpour that lasted about 5 minutes. Was pretty much partly sunny in between that though.

#3983
Front Ranger

Posted 30 April 2018 - 02:57 PM

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Amazing how it always seems to be wetter than normal to the north and east of Seattle... even during the 'dry' periods.

 

Yeah, the trend has just been wetter as you go further north for the past year or so.

 

Attached File  12mPNormWRCC-NW.png   132.27KB   0 downloads

 

Going back further, things even out a lot more.

 

Attached File  36mPNormWRCC-NW.png   126.55KB   0 downloads


It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#3984
Geos

Posted 30 April 2018 - 03:14 PM

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Was in Black Diamond yesterday and there was a massive downpour that lasted about 5 minutes. Was pretty much partly sunny in between that though.

 

Had some downpours on Saturday, but not more than a handful of sprinkles yesterday. Was out in Monroe on Saturday and it was raining really steadily there, but then you go 10 minutes up the road in Sultan and it was mostly dry - just cloudy. It's like the first row of foothills were blocking the moisture from Sultan on eastward.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 7.61", 2/28

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.3"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#3985
jcmcgaffey

Posted 30 April 2018 - 04:33 PM

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It’s also been interesting how this last month has had an ebb and flow to it on a smaller scale. The weather has tended to clear out throughout the week and then the heavier torughs have come through on the weekends. That has been a consistent pattern the last 3-4 weeks.

#3986
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 04:34 PM

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It’s also been interesting how this last month has had an ebb and flow to it on a smaller scale. The weather has tended to clear out throughout the week and then the heavier torughs have come through on the weekends. That has been a consistent pattern the last 3-4 weeks.

 

Timing does make a huge difference in the overall perception of the weather. 



#3987
Deweydog

Posted 30 April 2018 - 04:59 PM

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Timing does make a huge difference in the overall perception of the weather.


Timing or Tim-ing?
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3988
El Nina

Posted 30 April 2018 - 05:02 PM

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Just a reminder of what a good trough can still do this late in the year:
Attached File  US26 at Govn Camp Maint_pid1899.jpg   20.72KB   0 downloads
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#3989
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 05:04 PM

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Timing or Tim-ing?

 

Timing.  



#3990
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 06:51 PM

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The +SIOD is back...and on roids.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

#3991
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:13 PM

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The +SIOD is back...and on roids.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

 

 

So repeat of 2017?



#3992
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:34 PM

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So repeat of 2017?


Not over North America or the North Atlantic! As of now, only the Pacific Hadley Cell remains expanded relative to 1981-2010 climo. The IO/ATL z-cell networks have have both contracted equatorward w/ the forcing west of the dateline, and are no longer absurdly large/slow. At long last.

Any similarities to 2017 over North America should vanish when the U-winds flip easterly above the tropical tropopause, and the off-equator forcing weakens. Which will happen sometime in JJA, I suspect.
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#3993
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:42 PM

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Not over North America or the North Atlantic! As of now, only the Pacific Hadley Cell remains expanded relative to 1981-2010 climo. The IO/ATL z-cell networks have have both contracted equatorward w/ the forcing west of the dateline, and are no longer absurdly large/slow. At long last.

Any similarities to 2017 over North America should vanish when the U-winds flip easterly above the tropical tropopause, and the off-equator forcing weakens. Which will happen sometime in JJA, I suspect.

 

 

I was not really expecting a repeat of the year before.  



#3994
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:44 PM

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Not over North America or the North Atlantic! As of now, only the Pacific Hadley Cell remains expanded relative to 1981-2010 climo. The IO/ATL z-cell networks have have both contracted equatorward w/ the forcing west of the dateline, and are no longer absurdly large/slow. At long last.

Any similarities to 2017 over North America should vanish when the U-winds flip easterly above the tropical tropopause, and the off-equator forcing weakens. Which will happen sometime in JJA, I suspect.


This is good news.
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#3995
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:53 PM

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This is pretty cool stuff:

3jsnOiy.jpg

ensV2sc.jpg

5VevypN.jpg

s7aur2z.jpg

7B5i7At.jpg

uYr6KMH.jpg

VcHeeJT.jpg

mVvhpbb.jpg

2QY0TFP.jpg

HR4WkD1.jpg
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#3996
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:11 PM

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This is good news.


Haha, well it probably depends on your perspective. An “average” summer might make Andrew happy, but I’m sure Tim is rooting for another blowtorch.

#3997
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:13 PM

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Definitely a good trend for the weekend on recent model runs.   Looks warm with maybe some mountain convection on the 00Z GFS.


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#3998
TT-SEA

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:15 PM

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Haha, well it probably depends on your perspective. An “average” summer might make Andrew happy, but I’m sure Tim is rooting for another blowtorch.

 

I am not cheering for a scorching hot summer.   I just don't want a wet and cold summer.  


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#3999
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:32 PM

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I am not cheering for a scorching hot summer. I just don't want a wet and cold summer.


I don’t think you’ll have to worry about that, either. Too much variability this year. Plus, we should enter into a west-based niño next year. So that lets you off the hook again in 2019 (unless it’s delayed one year, which is possible but unlikely).

The early 2020s (next IPWP contraction phase that peaks from 2021-2024) looks like the next bout of multi-year warm season troughiness to me. Probably a moderate to strong west-based niña regime with -PDO/-PNA as a background state.

I’m very confident about the early 2020s. Been saying it since 2016..big flip to Niña/-PDO/-PNA upcoming after the next niño in 2019 or 2020. Mark it down. 🤓
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#4000
Jesse

Posted 30 April 2018 - 08:39 PM

Jesse

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An average summer would still be our coldest summer in six years. :lol:
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