Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 About 1-2 MB stronger and a tad farther N through HR 36 compared to 0z NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 according to abc 7 chicago weather that the heaviest will be south and east of the city of chicago.As much as you would all like to rip on him, I think this is the way to lean at this point, which could be subject to change, because the models still obviously don't have a great handle on this yet. This one doesn't look like it's gonna be too much for me unless that northern stream can somehow give me something, but if it does, that probably wouldn't bode as well for you Chicagoians because it would be a later phase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 00z WRF... BTW, Microcast brought the heavier snow band farther north from its previous 5:00pm model run. Could be a trend, lets see if the GGEM/EURO show something similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 I hate how late the model runs are now. Definitely can't stay up for the Euro, and even the GGEM is pretty late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 HR 48 NAM: 998 W. MORGEM: 1001 Near STLGFS: 998 S. OK/N.TX lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 HR 48 NAM: 998 W. MORGEM: 1001 Near STLGFS: 998 S. OK/N.TX lolShould we expect any different? Lol. The models are terrible this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 <GFS NAM http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 I believe Bastardi was rooting for a track to crush State College. lol Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Wow that run of the GFS is weak sauce. Either way, gonna be another solid storm for the East Coast. Been a real fun year out there for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 3-5" from Chicago on eastwards. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 I will take it. It be nice if it blow up a bit quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Any chance of les? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 rgem is n/stronger through hr 24 thus far than 0z rgem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 RGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 RGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z more north/amped. This is turning into a Chicago-Detroit special. A "texas style panhandle hooker" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 3-4 for Chicago. 7-8 for Detroit Slower/stronger. Trended towards the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Models have the bias to be too fast with systems, so this latest development isn't too surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Any chance of les? There's not enough of a temp difference for any significant Delta Ts. Probably shut down for the season. You should be good for some convective snow - maybe. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 If only this thing can blow up faster and trend slightly NW, I will be happy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 GGEM seems to be running late today. At least on Wxbell. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Skilling going with 3-7"... Edit: His RPM model showed LES in WI/IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 993.8 in S. IN at HR 48 on the 12z euro N of what it was on the 3-09-12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 One of the more aggressive models. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 ORD will most likely be in 3rd place overall after this system unless something funky happens and we can get clobbered but I doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z Euro complete miss for N IL...LOL Is this another debacle forthcoming on the Euro like the storm 2 Saturday's ago??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think what might be happening on the Euro is the precip shield is wrapping to close to the SLP compared to what the other models are doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 I haven't been following this storm the past few days as I was in sunny Florida and just got back but I am surprised to see the NW trend on most of the modeling. The NAM has been bullish as usual but does have some backing from some of the models except the Euro. The Euro has been very conservative with qpf most of this winter so I would discount it at this time. The question on everyones mind is how far NW this storm can go. Best guess for me is I don't have a clue. Seasonable trends tell you more NW, the winter trend has been SE as we get closer to the storm, where does the baro zone setup shop and will the northern stream force this storm further south? Since all of you are better educated then me when it comes to knowing the weather it will be interesting to hear your thoughts. After being in Florida I am surely ready for warm weather but if we could get 1 major storm to close out this winter then I for one am willing to wait for the warmth. Anything less than 6" will really not do it so hope for this puppy to blow up quicker and trend stronger/further NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Was wondering were you went Tony. I see you brought the warmth today from FL! This system has been very tricky to track the past few days. As of late, models are showing it phasing better for us to get a decent snowfall in N IL but the most significant snowfall will be east of here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Was wondering were you went Tony. I see you brought the warmth today from FL! This system has been very tricky to track the past few days. As of late, models are showing it phasing better for us to get a decent snowfall in N IL but the most significant snowfall will be east of here.I wanted you guys get a taste of spring fever before the snow started to fly again! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 It's going to be the tale of 2 seasons this week...Spring today, middle of winter Wednesday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 looks like another miss to the south, oh well 50 sure feels good today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 While we are waiting the 18z RAP has a 993 over roughly NW Kansas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 15z SREF looks good as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM looks pretty far north to already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM looks pretty far north to already.Yep, looking like the 18z RAP at 993mb so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM looks like its gonna be a sweet run here. Nice most of it at night. Will help with lower March ratios. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Maybe Milwaukee will get some Luv from this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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