3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[DominicR]

S WI and N IL looking hot but that even getting close here.

[DominicR]

NAM a solid 6-10 inches far N IL/S WI and MI. Very close though. What a difference with NAM and EURO. Worlds apart.

[Tony]

NAM needs to score a coup on this one...it is overdue!

[midwest buildit]

Wasnt the euro way off on the last system. And the nam or gfs was really close.

[Geos]

I'm ok with 2-4", but what that's all showing... 

 

LOT still saying southern cwa for highest amounts.

[Tony]

I'm ok with 2-4", but what that's all showing... 

 

 

But mentioned this also..

 

THE LOW TRACK

VARIES AMONG GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE

EVOLVING/PHASING BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW EXPECT TO SEE GUIDANCE

FLUCTUATE FURTHER. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY HELP DICTATE HOW FAR NORTH

MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE LATEST TRENDS

SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PUTTING MORE OF THE AREA AT RISK. IN

TERMS OF AMOUNTS...WITH THINGS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH HAVE INCREASED

SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE THESE MAY

CHANGE FURTHER...

[Tom]

Took a break from taking down my lights and my phone's email was blowing up!  NAM & SREF's had scored big with the last storm.  GGEM/EURO had pretty much nothing and we got 4-6".  NAM has been very consistent with this system thus far so I wouldn't discount it.  If this storm starts phasing earlier like the RAP/NAM are showing, then this will be a significant snow producer.

[Geos]

But mentioned this also..

 

THE LOW TRACK

VARIES AMONG GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE

EVOLVING/PHASING BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW EXPECT TO SEE GUIDANCE

FLUCTUATE FURTHER. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY HELP DICTATE HOW FAR NORTH

MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE LATEST TRENDS

SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PUTTING MORE OF THE AREA AT RISK. IN

TERMS OF AMOUNTS...WITH THINGS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH HAVE INCREASED

SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE THESE MAY

CHANGE FURTHER...

 

I just have important plans early Wednesday morning that I can't put off. For the most part I can drive over 4" of snow, but gets more tricky over that.

 

Having said that I hope ORD reaches 2nd place in snowfall for all the recorded seasons.

 

A quote from a Met at Romeoville.

 

 

Euro and GGEM are too far south and specifically the Euro has been too low on QPF here with some recent snow events. The answer probably does lie in between the 2 extremes and 3-6" is more of what I'm expecting for the Chicago metro. 

 

Using the location of the upper level potential vorticity anomaly hook which has worked in other events this winter to foretell more of a northwest track of the surface low does offer that possibility here as well when looking at the 250 mb PVU surface on the 12z GFS. 

 

[DominicR]

Skilling on FB:

 

Good Monday all! The Chicago area, enjoying its warmest temps in 3 months, is to undergo a jarring weather change in the coming 36 hours. Monday's unseasonable 56-deg high--the warmest here since late Dec and 2014's highest temp to date--is to be followed by a Tuesday afternoon temp plunge which leads into fast-moving, windy snowstorm by late Monday night. In the space of just 36 hours, the City, in the midst of one of its coldest March opens in over half of century, is to see temps plummet nearly 30-degrees and the bare ground covered by a healthy snow accumulation.
Model snow accumulation numbers and other snow forecast techniques support possible 4 to 8 inch accumulations, much of which may fall in a six to 8 hour window from 10pm Tue night to 6am Wed morning.
I'm posting a series of graphics on the developing weather situation. First, a plot of predicted Monday highs, the NWS's Weather Prediction Center super-ensemble 4"+ snow probability graphic covering the Tue night snow system, the latest NWS 4km WRF model snow accumulation forecast (the graphic assumes a 10 to 1 snow/water ratio and actual ratios may fall more in the 14 to 1 range), plus a snapshot of the surface weather map at 1am Wed morning, when snow rates should be at their peak here in Chicago and the jet stream wind maxima as predicted at that time by the WRF model. That Chicago sits beneath regions of large-scale "lift" generated by two distinct wind maxima indicates what meteorologists refer to as a "Uccellini-Kocin coupling" of vertical motion fields--in English, that's a region of the atmosphere in which air is lifted and cooled, maximizing cloud & precip generation.
There is some indication we could repeat the scenario this weekend, warming to within striking distance of 50 Friday only to see another potentially significant snow system in the Sunday/Mon time frame. I've posted the morning ECMWF model's 7am Sunday surface forecast panel.
It all underscores the fact that this is the cold season which has a way to run--just another reason to take in Monday's "warmth"!

 

[Tony]

I just have important plans early Wednesday morning that I can't put off. For the most part I can drive over 4" of snow, but gets more tricky over that.

 

Having said that I hope ORD reaches 2nd place in snowfall for all the recorded seasons.

 

A quote from a Met at Romeoville.

If it is going to snow then lets get a Big One and call it a winter otherwise I really don't care much for anymore 3-6in. Yearly trends tell us we are getting into the time of year where the NW trend will come into play and the storms will start hitting the upper midwest but then this winter tells us that its not ready to give up and we also have an icy LM so any NE breezes that normally kill off snow chances near the lake will actually help feed cold into the storms and maybe add enhancement but these are just my thoughts.

[Sciascia]

This is a Tues night-Wednesday event, right? I'm off work at 5pm tomorrow & not working Wednesday. I've been working during 5-6 snow events this year & missed some fun.

[DominicR]

If it is going to snow then lets get a Big One and call it a winter otherwise I really don't care much for anymore 3-6in. Yearly trends tell us we are getting into the time of year where the NW trend will come into play and the storms will start hitting the upper midwest but then this winter tells us that its not ready to give up and we also have an icy LM so any NE breezes that normally kill off snow chances near the lake will actually help feed cold into the storms and maybe add enhancement but these are just my thoughts.

 

We had 2 big ones already but I agree one more big one and bring on spring!

[DominicR]

This is a Tues night-Wednesday event, right? I'm off work at 5pm tomorrow & not working Wednesday. I've been working during 5-6 snow events this year & missed some fun.

 

Yes most between 10pm-6am.

[BrianJK]

I refuse to believe any of this until it can be confirmed by "the24weatherman".

[Tony]

Lets just hope this does not go to far NW and give us precip issues as it is getting very close on the NAM

[Geos]

If it is going to snow then lets get a Big One and call it a winter otherwise I really don't care much for anymore 3-6in. Yearly trends tell us we are getting into the time of year where the NW trend will come into play and the storms will start hitting the upper midwest but then this winter tells us that its not ready to give up and we also have an icy LM so any NE breezes that normally kill off snow chances near the lake will actually help feed cold into the storms and maybe add enhancement but these are just my thoughts.

 

Enhancement chances don't look good. Inversion in place.

 

 

If it does not go too far north or too far south, then convective snows are a real possibility.

 

Fyi: It is rain up until about 36 hours.

[Geos]

This would be fine for me personally. I get to 80" probably.

 

[DominicR]

GFS holding its ground.

[Geos]

18z GFS. 998mb low over Springfield, MO at 30 hours.

 

998 mb near LOU at 36 hours.

[Madtown]

1" here in Madison final call

[tim the weatherman]

the nws out of chicago just said that people south of i 80 could get 6 inches with this storm that they said on facebook that this one could be the last one for the winter season.

[DominicR]

Ouch Caplain model he posted was 1-2 inches for most except GEOS area 4.8 inches.

[Tom]

Dom, his model had mostly mix/rain...contradicts what the majority of the models are indicating.  I don't think we have mixing issues here.  One of Brant Miller's models had 8-10" from I-90 north (I think it was the NAM), the other was a general 3-6" (GFS).  I'd pay attention to high rez models right now.  This is a dynamic system and they usually have a better handle on this type of storms.  Skilling also mentioning some Thundersnow may be possible.

[Scott26]

Dom, his model had mostly mix/rain...contradicts what the majority of the models are indicating.  I don't think we have mixing issues here.  One of Brant Miller's models had 8-10" from I-90 north (I think it was the NAM), the other was a general 3-6" (GFS).  I'd pay attention to high rez models right now.  This is a dynamic system and they usually have a better handle on this type of storms.  Skilling also mentioning some Thundersnow may be possible.

We will see, but hi-res models really do tend to amp these systems up at around 24-36 hours before a incoming storm. I'm not saying that you can rule out a 18Z NAM solution, but I still think what the global models are showing is more likely at this point.

[BrianJK]

the ws out of WGN just said that models are depicting 3-6" and 4-8" spreads with this storm and they said on facebook that a similair storm may be possible this weekend.

[Tom]

18z RGEM...snow ratios will be increasing as the storm intensifies and tugs down colder air.

[Tom]

DTX looks to be in the sweet spot with this system in our region.  I think they have a good chance at breaking the season snowfall record from this storm.

[Scott26]

Also interesting to note the 18Z NAM shows 50 plus mph wind gusts during the height of the storm. Would definitely be blizzard conditions for many despite the snow having an higher liquid content.

[Tom]

Wednesday morning rush hour is going to be a wild one.  This certainly is going to be a very windy system.  I love these type of wind driven snow storms.  Hoping we get 6"+ out of this one.

[Iowawx]

Hopefully the NAM verifies, although I am still not convinced we will get a lot of snow in eastern Iowa. We never do.

[Tom]

Skilling showed his updated RPM model that kicked out a band of 7-8" of snow right across N IL.  IMO, I think N IL will be under a WSW tonight.  High rez models are picking up better with this type of situation.

[Money]

RAP looks pretty strong. Looks a lot like the NAM. Maybe even stronger.

[The Snowman]

Made a new post on the blog for anyone interested. Siding with an NAM-favored/GFS compromise.

 

Link: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/impending-snowstorm-to-drop-12-of-snow.html

[Niko]

WSW for my area folks. Im forecasted to receive 4-6inches+. OHHHH, so close to breaking my all time record snowfall for the season. Currently at 84.1" and record is 93.2".

[Iowawx]

My guess is that the NAM will flip to the GFS at some point. Not trying to be a downer, but I feel the NAM is seriously overdoing this event.  Local met only going with trace-2 inches.

[midwest buildit]

I see the nws calling for the heaviest snow south. Lol. They followed the Euro pretty heavily with the last system and were way off. I think there forcast will be wrong again. The nam might be a little over done. But I believe the heaviest will fall from i80 to maybe just north of il/wis state line.

[Geos]

My guess is that the NAM will flip to the GFS at some point. Not trying to be a downer, but I feel the NAM is seriously overdoing this event.  Local met only going with trace-2 inches.

 

I think the GFS is close to being right actually. Unless it sways towards the NAM, I'd say it's a good model to follow since it has more correct solutions this winter. This is a city on south event, imo.

[Money]

I think the GFS is close to being right actually. Unless it sways towards the NAM, I'd say it's a good model to follow since it has more correct solutions this winter. This is a city on south event, imo.

 

Hi-res models are the favored model to go in these situations.  Lower resolution wont pick up on storms like these. 

[East Dubzz]

Right now, I would just go with a mix of the NAM and GFS, because either could be right. I personally also think it will be the GFS that is right, because the NAM has already done things like this this year, and that just seems like the typical NAM. But, it is getting within it's range, so it may be onto something as well. I think tonight's or tomorrow morning's runs will start to shed some light on this and find one model should start giving into the other.

[Money]

The ever so famous RUC has a 992 MB L in NW/N. MO.

 

Way north lol.