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April 8th/9th Snow Storm

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#1
bud2380

Posted 05 April 2018 - 12:55 PM

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We've been talking about this for days, so let's get it's own thread here.  Snow looks likely for much of the Dakota's, eastern NE, Minnesota, Iowa, WI, and N. Illinois Sunday into Monday.  

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

From Sunday into Sunday night, the 05.00z models continue to show
that a short wave trough will eject out of the Central and
Northern Plains. While the surface low is filling, the 800 to
500 mb frontogenesis will still tighten along and south of the
Interstate 94 corridor. Soundings indicate that the Dendritic
Growth Zone could potentially deepen as much as 250 mb at times.
This will increase the snow to liquid ratios into the 12-18 to 1.
Being this far out, it is surprising how tight the GEFS QPF
clustering is for this system. They have QPF ranging from 2 to 6
tenths of an inch. With the exception of Clark and Taylor
counties, thinking that much of the area will likely see snow
totals ranging from 3 to 7 inches. The highest snow totals
continue to look like they will occur west of the Mississippi
River. Like the previous system earlier this week, the rates
during the day will greatly effect the impacts during the day
Sunday. When the rates are high, the snow will accumulate on the
roads and then melt when the rates are less. Meanwhile, on Sunday
night as the roads cools, the snow will accumulate. This may be
when the greatest impacts will occur.



#2
bud2380

Posted 05 April 2018 - 01:57 PM

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GFS gets weaker and weaker for the south half of Iowa each run.  I'm not completely sad about that.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#3
james1976

Posted 05 April 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Yeah prolly end up being a 2-4 event

#4
james1976

Posted 05 April 2018 - 02:10 PM

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DMX still talking 6+ for N IA

#5
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 April 2018 - 02:22 PM

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GFS gets weaker and weaker for the south half of Iowa each run. I'm not completely sad about that.

snku_acc.us_mw.png


That is a monster cutoff here.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#6
Hawkeye

Posted 05 April 2018 - 03:11 PM

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Yeah, the weakening trend is there for sure.  This thing kinda drops its load in the Dakotas into southern Minnesota and then fills and dries up as it tails away to the ese.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#7
St Paul Storm

Posted 05 April 2018 - 06:16 PM

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The morning forecaster at MPX was saying how ratios would be 15:1 or higher and how that could lead to 8”+. The afternoon forecaster said the complete opposite and how ratios would be low. Currently 2-4” in the point for Sunday and still snowing Sunday evening. 3” looks like a safe call here.

#8
james1976

Posted 06 April 2018 - 04:49 AM

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DMX still talking 6-7 inches for my area but holding off on headlines for now.

#9
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 05:09 AM

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The last two runs of the euro have come back sw quite a bit, so the track is now favorable for CR/IC.  Unfortunately, the system has also weakened so much our snowfall hasn't inceased any.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#10
james1976

Posted 06 April 2018 - 05:11 AM

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The last two runs of the euro have come back sw quite a bit, so the track is now favorable for CR/IC. Unfortunately, the system has also weakened so much our snowfall hasn't inceased any.

What is Euro showing for totals?

#11
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 05:37 AM

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What is Euro showing for totals?

 

Two runs ago, the euro had a 6" band from Minneapolis eastward through Wisconsin and into Michigan.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png   172.25KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#12
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 05:47 AM

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Hmm.  I just read DVN's discussion and they are saying this will be a dry snow, with ratios increasing to 16-20 to 1.  That's something you don't see too often in April.  It's a shame this thing couldn't maintain more strength.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#13
james1976

Posted 06 April 2018 - 05:50 AM

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Thanks for the Euro map Hawkeye.
DMX hasnt mentioned ratios.16-20:1 would be impressive. Idk if im buying that.

#14
bud2380

Posted 06 April 2018 - 08:03 AM

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If the euro is right though 2-4/3-5” would be in order for Iowa City and CR. I’m trying to remember the last time I saw 4” or more in April. It’s probably been awhile. That said I have a feeling we’ll end up more like 1-3” here

#15
gosaints

Posted 06 April 2018 - 09:16 AM

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snku_acc.us_mw.png



#16
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 09:19 AM

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There's a pretty big difference between the models regarding snow placement.  The GFS has moved most of the snow up into Minnesota.  Meanwhile, the 12z UK has jumped way southwest and now has it from South Dakota through western Iowa, with very little snow from Minneapolis to Dubuque.  Last night's euro was in between.

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_96.png   246.65KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#17
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 April 2018 - 09:25 AM

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snku_acc.us_mw.png


This would be the 4th time I’ve put the snowblower away for the season. You’d think I would have learned by now.
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#18
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 10:10 AM

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The 12z Canadian just pulled a UK and moved much of the snow to South Dakota down through western Iowa.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#19
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 10:18 AM

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12z Euro moved sw again, although not quite as much as UK/GDPS.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_84.png   160.95KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#20
james1976

Posted 06 April 2018 - 10:20 AM

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Lookedmore consistent yesterday

#21
james1976

Posted 06 April 2018 - 10:40 AM

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Maybe a 2-4 event for IA. Prolly low end advisory.

#22
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 April 2018 - 11:08 AM

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If it ain’t gonna be big, keep it away.

#23
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 11:21 AM

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12z Euro ensemble mean

 

Attached File  eps_acc_snow_mw_96.png   147.57KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#24
james1976

Posted 06 April 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Looking more like a turd



#25
james1976

Posted 06 April 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Winter Storm Watch hoisted for MN.
​Appears they may be siding with the GFS judging from where the watch is placed.



#26
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 April 2018 - 01:30 PM

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Looks like 2-4” here. Would only hit the lower end of that if the Euro verifies. It didn’t do so well with the system earlier this week. Let’s see what happens.

#27
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 02:14 PM

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ICON still has a nice strip of 0.50" qpf through CR.  The 18z GFS dropped its good snow band down into CR as well, with 0.40".  However, as maps above show, other models have only a couple tenths.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#28
bud2380

Posted 06 April 2018 - 04:46 PM

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18z GFS doubled qpf for Iowa City/CR area from the 12z run.  I was surprised to see the Euro shift so much the past 2 runs.  I'd like to see it hold it's intensity longer.  I wouldn't mind seeing one last hurrah this weekend before we hopefully get into Spring. 


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#29
Hawkeye

Posted 06 April 2018 - 07:58 PM

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00z runs of the NAM, GFS, and ICON all have 0.30-0.40 for the CR/IC area.  The 3k nam has 0.20-0.30" and the Canadian 0.20".


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#30
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 April 2018 - 08:04 PM

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At least models never hyped this thing up here! We might get an inch.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#31
NH4NU

Posted 06 April 2018 - 08:39 PM

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At least models never hyped this thing up here! We might get an inch.

 

http://www.pivotalwe...60&r=us_c&dpdt=



#32
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 April 2018 - 08:51 PM

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Yeah I saw that. That's the first model run to show that much so I'm not buying it. I'll never buy any models showing more than an inch for this. It'll be low ratio and sloppy, falling on ~40 degree surfaces.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#33
snowstorm83

Posted 06 April 2018 - 11:06 PM

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We're not getting s**t from this! I think I'm actually finally ready for spring, which basically means that everyone should be ready for spring. 



#34
Hawkeye

Posted 07 April 2018 - 05:18 AM

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00z euro

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_66.png   148.03KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#35
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 April 2018 - 10:00 AM

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https://goo.gl/maps/cYagVL3q6hy

 

This is a pretty well known meth bridge in Lincoln. Whoever forecasted 1-2" for here in the point grid obviously went to this bridge, got meth, smoked it, then wrote the forecast.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#36
NH4NU

Posted 07 April 2018 - 11:24 AM

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1-3” for Papillion according to point grid

#37
Iowawx

Posted 07 April 2018 - 12:13 PM

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WWA now for my area. 2-4 inches of snow with light icing.
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#38
Hawkeye

Posted 07 April 2018 - 07:47 PM

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The downward qpf trend continues.  The GFS is holding at 0.25-0.30", but the rest of the models have fallen to 0.10-0.20".  Full sampling at 00z only dried it out more.  By game time, we may be down to an inch.

 

Update:  And the 00z euro just dropped us from 2 inches down to 1.  Time to get this crap out of here and move on to spring.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#39
St Paul Storm

Posted 08 April 2018 - 06:01 AM

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Last few runs of the HRRR picking up on some weenie totals right over the metro. Not sure what that’s all about.

Attached Files



#40
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 April 2018 - 08:36 AM

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I love how precip always dies out right before it reaches Lincoln. 37.8*F.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#41
NEJeremy

Posted 08 April 2018 - 09:01 AM

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I woke up expecting some flakes flying and perhaps a light coating on the ground, as usual when it snows here. Nope not a single flake flying and ground is bare. I’m full of nothing burger sandwiches from this past week 😆 4 storms since Easter and maybe an inch total of snow. Sure it’s been really cold but the snow’s been absent once again like the rest of this winter. I’ll have to check if we’ve cracked 16” now.

#42
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 April 2018 - 09:31 AM

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I woke up expecting some flakes flying and perhaps a light coating on the ground, as usual when it snows here. Nope not a single flake flying and ground is bare. I’m full of nothing burger sandwiches from this past week 😆 4 storms since Easter and maybe an inch total of snow. Sure it’s been really cold but the snow’s been absent once again like the rest of this winter. I’ll have to check if we’ve cracked 16” now.


You feel those South winds? That's the end of Winter coming.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#43
NEJeremy

Posted 08 April 2018 - 09:42 AM

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You feel those South winds? That's the end of Winter coming.


Yep! One more cool day tomorrow then the rest of the week will be glorious. Too bad this can’t happen on a weekend too
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#44
james1976

Posted 08 April 2018 - 09:54 AM

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​Almost an inch in the first hour.


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#45
Bryan1117

Posted 08 April 2018 - 10:27 AM

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Yep! One more cool day tomorrow then the rest of the week will be glorious. Too bad this can’t happen on a weekend too

“Brace yourselves... Spring is Coming!” ☀️⛈

I have never been so glad to see the most of any snow miss us to the north and south these last couple of weeks. This Winter stuff has been dead to me for a while now.
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#46
bud2380

Posted 08 April 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Snow finally started here as I just got back from Milwaukee

#47
Hawkeye

Posted 08 April 2018 - 10:43 AM

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​Almost an inch in the first hour.

 

Impressive!  There is a band of yellow right on top of me at the moment, but I still haven't seen a flake.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#48
Hawkeye

Posted 08 April 2018 - 10:55 AM

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The snow is finally reaching the ground.  I would love to see that heavy stuff up in the clouds get down here.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#49
bud2380

Posted 08 April 2018 - 11:12 AM

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Snow finally more than just flurries here. Not a lot more than that yet though.

#50
bud2380

Posted 08 April 2018 - 11:43 AM

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And just like that the snow is coming down in buckets.