Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 On Friday the 13th, all the models are highlighting a classic large and powerful Spring storm system to eject out of the Rockies and "bowl" its way slowly to the east towards the MW/GL's. Blocking is making tracking this system quite interesting. It seems like each model run there is a different solution. Let's discuss the storms winter and severe potential as this high impact storm rolls through the sub. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 00z/06z GFS snowfall... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040900/186/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040906/180/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Wow, this storm has the potential to be a monster! I could not be any happier to be heading to Panama City, Florida this weekend after seeing these model runs LOL. What a slap in the face it will be going from beautiful 70 degree weather to more Winter-like cold/wind and chances for snow here in Eastern Nebraska. Thankful I will get the chance to enjoy the warmup and be out of here before the weather changes again on Friday afternoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Wow, this storm has the potential to be a monster! I could not be any happier to be heading to Panama City, Florida this weekend after seeing these model runs LOL. What a slap in the face it will be going from beautiful 70 degree weather to more Winter-like cold/wind and chances for snow here in Eastern Nebraska. Thankful I will get the chance to enjoy the warmup and be out of here before the weather changes again on Friday afternoon.I'd be right there with ya if work allowed me to! Believe me, I'd be in AZ already but I have too much on my plate. I'm hoping to get outta town this week for a bit if I can. Have fun down in FL! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 This storm is concerning. If we end up more on the warm side we’re going to have hydro issues. If we get the crazy snow totals the latest model runs are showing we might have snow OTG into May.....or at least frozen ground in May. The growing season will be cut way short. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 This storm is concerning. If we end up more on the warm side we’re going to have hydro issues. If we get the crazy snow totals the latest model runs are showing we might have snow OTG into May.....or at least frozen ground in May. The growing season will be cut way short.00z Euro creeping your area with 12"+ just to your north...I think your in the game to score another big one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 00z Euro creeping your area with 12"+ just to your north...I think your in the game to score another big one. Would bet on a slightly further NW solution just based on climo but this spring is hard to predict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Would bet on a slightly further NW solution just based on climo but this spring is hard to predict. Ya, no kidding, but that Hudson Bay block is looking rather strong. It'll keep tracking this storm system fun and challenging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Looking at 2" of precip this week. I guess (pains me to say this) I would rather some of it be snow to reduced the flooding threat. The ground is rock hard. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Gfs still liking idea for snow here in eastern neb saturday. Must watch! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Gfs still liking idea for snow here in eastern neb saturday. Must watch!well the dome should come down in the spring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Gfs still liking idea for snow here in eastern neb saturday. Must watch!be prepared for .5-1" of slush!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 be prepared for .5-1" of slush!!Lol you think Omaha is gonna get snow at all? No, it's just going to be cloudy and windy! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 I'd be right there with ya if work allowed me to! Believe me, I'd be in AZ already but I have too much on my plate. I'm hoping to get outta town this week for a bit if I can. Have fun down in FL!Thanks Tom, my wife and I are heading down there to celebrate our 10 year anniversary. Looking forward to a few days of sun, warmth, and quality time on the beautiful beaches of the panhandle of Florida. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 NWS Hastings sure not talking too much about this. Local forecast has a 30% of rain with maybe a slight chance of snow here. If the Low goes over our head, we will be dry slotted. Rarely do we ever get precipitation in this part of the state with that scenario, wraparound is usually little or nothing. Low needs to go across Kansas for me to get more excited for moisture chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 On Friday the 13th, all the models are highlighting a classic large and powerful Spring storm system to eject out of the Rockies and "bowl" its way slowly to the east towards the MW/GL's. Blocking is making tracking this system quite interesting. It seems like each model run there is a different solution. Let's discuss the storms winter and severe potential as this high impact storm rolls through the sub. Geez, GEFS mean storm track looks eerily similar to last Nov's strong system. If it was a month earlier, or just any other year especially 2005, I'd have to worry about #realsnow. Like last week's Big Dog tho, I don't think I have much to worry about. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 The low is much farther south on the models today as it was before. The ICON and GFS have really come south. I would bet on the Northwest/North solution in coming days. Climatology would say farther north, though this year has been a little different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Give me 70 and tstorms or give me heavy snow. No dull 40 cloudy and windy. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Models seem to be latching onto the idea of the secondary low forming south of the first low. Energy transfers, stalls and wraps in much colder air. Wild solutions on each run. Fun week of tracking ahead for sure. Dat 12z GEM is a beauty. 44” jack zone in the U.P. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Friday night boomers across the MW/Plains...should be a real fun storm to track with a wide variety of wx on the table... Here's a neat CIPS Analog based severe probability map for Fri... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Ya, I like the chances for storm chasers to "dust off" their tools for Friday...IA looks like there may be an Enhanced Risk in the region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Here’s a very early prediction......massive t-storms in IA rob the cold sector precip and snow totals are much lower than currently shown. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Here’s a very early prediction......massive t-storms in IA rob the cold sector precip and snow totals are much lower than currently shown.This is a rather strong low so I don’t think it robs moisture to the north, but instead, produces a trowal feature and tansports moisture into the cold sector. This has the looks of a very mature storm. Gonna be a wild Fri-Sun period. Fun times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 This is a rather strong low so I don’t think it robs moisture to the north, but instead, produces a trowal feature and tansports moisture into the cold sector. This has the looks of a very mature storm. Gonna be a wild Fri-Sun period. Fun times.I’m all for some nice trowal action. I see the 12z Euro continues it’s trek south with the heavy snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Madison stays liquid right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Madison stays liquid right?Initially, but you never know as this storm could deliver wrap around snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180419-1200z.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Friday night boomers across the MW/Plains...should be a real fun storm to track with a wide variety of wx on the table... Here's a neat CIPS Analog based severe probability map for Fri... Tom, with a Low Pressure in that position, Central Nebraska typically does really well. This model doesn't show much of anything for our area. Will be interesting to watch during the week. I would just as soon have liquid at this point, but we have no control over that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180419-1200z.htmlThats actually from 2 different systems. the weekend really puts us on the frindge. Lots of rain though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Man, 12z Euro crushes SD into MN/N WI/U.P. with 1-2'+...Blizzard in the Dakotas and event a good possibility into MN...what a storm... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Tom, with a Low Pressure in that position, Central Nebraska typically does really well. This model doesn't show much of anything for our area. Will be interesting to watch during the week. I would just as soon have liquid at this point, but we have no control over that.Indeed, but not every SLP acts the same way...unfortunately, for your region, precip blossoms north and east of your area. This is not a good storm for precip needs. In fact, prob not over the next 10 days until later in the month towards the last week of April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Euro continues to look better than the GFS for severe weather potential in Iowa. Dews in the 60s for most of Iowa. CAPE over 2k in pockets. Forecast radar keeps most of the warm sector dry though except near the warm front, until late afternoon and evening when a solid line of storms forms and moves across the state.Also has highs into the 80s here in Omaha and into western Iowa on Friday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 This isn’t a bowling bowl. It’s a midwest version of an EC bomb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Tom, with a Low Pressure in that position, Central Nebraska typically does really well. This model doesn't show much of anything for our area. Will be interesting to watch during the week. I would just as soon have liquid at this point, but we have no control over that.Thursday would be the better opportunity for central Nebraska, but unfortunately capping looks too strong(good CAPE though) and the main energy doesn't arrive until overnight which as Tom mentions causes the precip to form north and east of C. Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Euro continues to look better than the GFS for severe weather potential in Iowa. Dews in the 60s for most of Iowa. CAPE over 2k in pockets. Forecast radar keeps most of the warm sector dry though except near the warm front, until late afternoon and evening when a solid line of storms forms and moves across the state.Also has highs into the 80s here in Omaha and into western Iowa on Friday! Yeah, 80s Friday to 30s and light snow Saturday... fun stuff. The euro actually shows a Friday 12z temperature in the low 70s in se NE. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Thats actually from 2 different systems. the weekend really puts us on the frindge. Lots of rain though6 inches of qpf for the entire run m Pretty impressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Yeah, 80s Friday to 30s and light snow Saturday... fun stuff. The euro actually shows a Friday 12z temperature in the low 70s in se NE.I might sleep with the windows open Thursday night and then scrape some light slush on Saturday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Somebody needs to tell mother nature that winter was supposed to happen a couple months ago. This is getting out of hand. O_o Interested to see what the heck happens with this mammoth system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 9, 2018 Report Share Posted April 9, 2018 Doesn't look so bad.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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