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April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse

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#51
Hawkeye

Posted 10 April 2018 - 06:49 AM

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I see the 00z euro keeps the warm front farther south on Friday, so northern Iowa through the north Chicago burbs get stuck in the 40s.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#52
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 06:57 AM

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I see the 00z euro keeps the warm front farther south on Friday, so northern Iowa through the north Chicago burbs get stuck in the 40s.


12z NAM trending that way, as well as, the 06z GFS. Guess the luck of reaching 70F on Friday is running out!

#53
GDR

Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:06 AM

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Enjoy your 40s while I’m grilling in shorts!

#54
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:29 AM

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12z NAM trending that way, as well as, the 06z GFS. Guess the luck of reaching 70F on Friday is running out!

 

Mby was never even teased with the chance  :rolleyes:  Gotta nab my 1st 60 of the spring, ha! 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#55
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:33 AM

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12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down.

#56
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:46 AM

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CMC and GFS bring accumulating snow to Central Nebraska late Friday night through Saturday.  We'll see.



#57
Stormgeek

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:21 AM

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12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down.


Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here. ;)

#58
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:22 AM

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Changes again on the 12z Euro...continue to shift south...thats a major Hudson Bay Block

#59
gosaints

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Changes again on the 12z Euro...continue to shift south...thats a major Hudson Bay Block

Looks that way.  Cant get any maps to load though



#60
Hawkeye

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening.  It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png   185.2KB   6 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png   245.54KB   7 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png   181.99KB   11 downloads


  • Tom and St Paul Storm like this

season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#61
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Lol. You knew one of the models had to blink soon. There was way too much consistency this far out. Poor Duluth goes from 20” to nothing in a single run. I don’t buy it.

#62
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:34 AM

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Changes again on the 12z Euro...continue to shift south...thats a major Hudson Bay Block

Looks similar to the other models for as much as has loaded.  I might be in for more accumulations if these verify



#63
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:35 AM

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Lol. You knew one of the models had to blink soon. There was way too much consistency this far out.


I love tracking storms during these blocky patterns as each run provides a different solution. I think odds are increasing in your favor, and even into GoSaints area for a good snowstorm.

#64
Hawkeye

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:37 AM

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I added some graphics to my post above.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#65
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:37 AM

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png
ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png
ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png


Can you post the snow maps when they fully load? Thanks in advance.

#66
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:40 AM

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I love tracking storms during these blocky patterns as each run provides a different solution. I think odds are increasing in your favor, and even into GoSaints area for a good snowstorm.


Probably going to bounce around pretty hard for another 2 days at least. These blocking patterns are impossible for the models to figure out. It appears it’s going to snow. Just gotta see how big we can go.
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#67
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:40 AM

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Wowzers, that’s a big shift...looks like those spots that just got crushed last week are in the game yet again!

#68
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:40 AM

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I added some graphics to my post above.


That temp gradient....wowzers. That’s disgusting. Thanks for posting.

#69
bud2380

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:42 AM

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What the EFFING F is going on???  Good god, enough already.  

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_144.png   168.67KB   1 downloads


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#70
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Absolutely disgusting.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#71
bud2380

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:52 AM

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If it's going to snow, i'd prefer it be epic, like this is showing, but I'd just much rather have the 60s and 70s and get this cold out of here.  



#72
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:52 AM

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Changes again on the 12z Euro...continue to shift south...thats a major Hudson Bay Block


Any indications of this going away? (Please say yes)
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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#73
FarmerRick

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:54 AM

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What the EFFING F is going on???  Good god, enough already.  

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_144.png

 

 

The OmaDome looks mis-shapen, likely just a glitch in the matrix...


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#74
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here. ;)


Looking more and more like 3”+. We’ll see.

#75
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Any indications of this going away? (Please say yes)


Let’s see the 12z EPS run and if the shift south continues. The southern Energy coming up from the south is another piece to the puzzle that could maximize its potential.

#76
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:01 AM

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d**n that’s a lot of ice it looks like here

#77
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:03 AM

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Here’s the icon at 120

https://www.tropical...18041012&fh=120

Looks similar to euro

#78
gosaints

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:04 AM

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LOL- This one would be a fun one to guess totals for specific areas.

 

Duluth- 

Eau Claire-

MSP-

Gosaints backyard on the ridge-

Cedar Repaids-

James-

Madison-

Green Bay-

Money's backyard-


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#79
Hawkeye

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:07 AM

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All the pieces would have to come together perfectly to get this scenario, so it probably won't happen.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#80
james1976

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:08 AM

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Omg! Well if it snows i hope its epic. No cold cloudy windy crap.
70s and storms or heavy snow!

#81
Snowshoe

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:08 AM

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening.  It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png

 

Where's the dislike button? 


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#82
gosaints

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:08 AM

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Omg! Well if it snows i hope its epic. No cold cloudy windy crap.
70s and storms or heavy snow!

I think 70s are out.  Warm fronts struggle to get as far north as modeled this time of the year.



#83
gosaints

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:14 AM

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5.5 inches of QPF LOL.



#84
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:15 AM

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LOL- This one would be a fun one to guess totals for specific areas.
 
Duluth- 
Eau Claire-
MSP-
Gosaints backyard on the ridge-
Cedar Repaids-
James-
Madison-
Green Bay-
Money's backyard-


We should submit our guesses soon, to make it that much more entertaining.

#85
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:23 AM

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Temps look well below freezing

https://weather.us/m...0415-1200z.html

Those are the temps with the bulk of the precip

#86
Stormgeek

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:33 AM

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Gulf of Mexico is wide open it appears... Quite intriguing.

#87
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:36 AM

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One thing about the ice accumulation

Being mid April you would tend to not have significant ice considering warm surface temps etc so that’s something to consider but it’s been pretty cold lately so who knows

#88
gosaints

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:39 AM

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One thing about the ice accumulation

Being mid April you would tend to not have significant ice considering warm surface temps etc so that’s something to consider but it’s been pretty cold lately so who knows

Would think ground surfaces would stuggle to really accumulate ice.  Snow is a different story of course.  Trees and power lines would have no problem accumulating ice


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#89
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:40 AM

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12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down.

 

Maps change with EVERY run, lol   Amwx poster showed NEMI again ground zero with 30+ inches. MQT's morning AFD wants peeps to "cool it" since this comes in several waves just like 1st wk of Feb did for SMI. Thus, it's not one massive hit and the impacts will not be the same as if it were. 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#90
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:43 AM

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Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here. ;)

 

How 'bout 40F and RN? (just like mby for the last 6 wks)

 

Attached File  Snow_Nazi.PNG   774.92KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#91
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:45 AM

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Would think ground surfaces would stuggle to really accumulate ice.  Snow is a different story of course.  Trees and power lines would have no problem accumulating ice


Agreed

It will be interesting how this trends in the next 48 hours.

Gut feeling?

#92
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:47 AM

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Euro showing a snow depth of 79” west of Marquette on Monday afternoon. Holy balls.
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#93
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:53 AM

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12z EPS did in fact shift south and colder. Hmm, that Euro op run may be on to something.
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#94
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:54 AM

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening.  It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png

 

1st map = Attached File  Axe_head.gif   1.03KB   0 downloads

2nd map = Attached File  Axe_head.gif   1.03KB   0 downloads

3rd map = Attached File  Axe_head.gif   1.03KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:55 AM

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https://www.tropical...18041012&fh=120

#96
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:56 AM

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Agreed

It will be interesting how this trends in the next 48 hours.

Gut feeling?

 

More effin swamp wx for mby!  Somebody just wake me and tell me the past 2 months were just a bad dream 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#97
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:58 AM

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12z EPS did in fact shift south and colder. Hmm, that Euro op run may be on to something.


12z GEFS also came in south although not as much as the EPS.

#98
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:16 PM

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12z GEFS also came in south although not as much as the EPS.


The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.

#99
Snowshoe

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:22 PM

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The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.

 

Can't argue that but I will be cheering loudly against it!  ;)


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#100
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:23 PM

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The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.


We should know a lot more within the next 48 hours. Would leave us within 2-3 days