I see the 00z euro keeps the warm front farther south on Friday, so northern Iowa through the north Chicago burbs get stuck in the 40s.

April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse
#51
Posted 10 April 2018 - 06:49 AM
season snowfall: 39.5"
'16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1"
Average snowfall: ~30"
#52
Posted 10 April 2018 - 06:57 AM
I see the 00z euro keeps the warm front farther south on Friday, so northern Iowa through the north Chicago burbs get stuck in the 40s.
12z NAM trending that way, as well as, the 06z GFS. Guess the luck of reaching 70F on Friday is running out!
#54
Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:29 AM
12z NAM trending that way, as well as, the 06z GFS. Guess the luck of reaching 70F on Friday is running out!
Mby was never even teased with the chance Gotta nab my 1st 60 of the spring, ha!
Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3" Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!
Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"
Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"
Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"
Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)
Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"
Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."
#55
Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:33 AM
#56
Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:46 AM
CMC and GFS bring accumulating snow to Central Nebraska late Friday night through Saturday. We'll see.
#57
Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:21 AM
12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down.
Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here.

#58
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:22 AM
#59
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:30 AM
Changes again on the 12z Euro...continue to shift south...thats a major Hudson Bay Block
Looks that way. Cant get any maps to load though
#60
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:32 AM
Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.
ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png 185.2KB
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ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png 245.54KB
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ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png 181.99KB
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- Tom and St Paul Storm like this
season snowfall: 39.5"
'16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1"
Average snowfall: ~30"
#61
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:33 AM
#62
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:34 AM
Changes again on the 12z Euro...continue to shift south...thats a major Hudson Bay Block
Looks similar to the other models for as much as has loaded. I might be in for more accumulations if these verify
#63
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:35 AM
Lol. You knew one of the models had to blink soon. There was way too much consistency this far out.
I love tracking storms during these blocky patterns as each run provides a different solution. I think odds are increasing in your favor, and even into GoSaints area for a good snowstorm.
#64
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:37 AM
I added some graphics to my post above.
- Tom and jaster220 like this
season snowfall: 39.5"
'16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1"
Average snowfall: ~30"
#65
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:37 AM
Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.
ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png
ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png
ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png
Can you post the snow maps when they fully load? Thanks in advance.
#66
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:40 AM
I love tracking storms during these blocky patterns as each run provides a different solution. I think odds are increasing in your favor, and even into GoSaints area for a good snowstorm.
Probably going to bounce around pretty hard for another 2 days at least. These blocking patterns are impossible for the models to figure out. It appears it’s going to snow. Just gotta see how big we can go.
- Tom likes this
#67
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:40 AM
#68
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:40 AM
I added some graphics to my post above.
That temp gradient....wowzers. That’s disgusting. Thanks for posting.
#69
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:42 AM
What the EFFING F is going on??? Good god, enough already.
ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_144.png 168.67KB
1 downloads
- Hawkeye likes this
#70
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:46 AM
2017-18 Snowfall:
TOTAL: 40.0"
(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")
#71
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:52 AM
If it's going to snow, i'd prefer it be epic, like this is showing, but I'd just much rather have the 60s and 70s and get this cold out of here.
#72
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:52 AM
Changes again on the 12z Euro...continue to shift south...thats a major Hudson Bay Block
Any indications of this going away? (Please say yes)
- Snowshoe likes this
2017-18 Snowfall:
TOTAL: 40.0"
(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")
#73
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:54 AM
The OmaDome looks mis-shapen, likely just a glitch in the matrix...
- jaster220 likes this
#74
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:55 AM
Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here.
Looking more and more like 3”+. We’ll see.
#75
Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:57 AM
Any indications of this going away? (Please say yes)
Let’s see the 12z EPS run and if the shift south continues. The southern Energy coming up from the south is another piece to the puzzle that could maximize its potential.
#78
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:04 AM
LOL- This one would be a fun one to guess totals for specific areas.
Duluth-
Eau Claire-
MSP-
Gosaints backyard on the ridge-
Cedar Repaids-
James-
Madison-
Green Bay-
Money's backyard-
- james1976 and Snowshoe like this
#79
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:07 AM
All the pieces would have to come together perfectly to get this scenario, so it probably won't happen.
- jaster220 likes this
season snowfall: 39.5"
'16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1"
Average snowfall: ~30"
#80
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:08 AM
70s and storms or heavy snow!
#81
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:08 AM
Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.
Where's the dislike button?
#82
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:08 AM
Omg! Well if it snows i hope its epic. No cold cloudy windy crap.
70s and storms or heavy snow!
I think 70s are out. Warm fronts struggle to get as far north as modeled this time of the year.
#84
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:15 AM
LOL- This one would be a fun one to guess totals for specific areas.
Duluth-
Eau Claire-
MSP-
Gosaints backyard on the ridge-
Cedar Repaids-
James-
Madison-
Green Bay-
Money's backyard-
We should submit our guesses soon, to make it that much more entertaining.
#85
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:23 AM
https://weather.us/m...0415-1200z.html
Those are the temps with the bulk of the precip
#87
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:36 AM
Being mid April you would tend to not have significant ice considering warm surface temps etc so that’s something to consider but it’s been pretty cold lately so who knows
#88
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:39 AM
One thing about the ice accumulation
Being mid April you would tend to not have significant ice considering warm surface temps etc so that’s something to consider but it’s been pretty cold lately so who knows
Would think ground surfaces would stuggle to really accumulate ice. Snow is a different story of course. Trees and power lines would have no problem accumulating ice
- jaster220 likes this
#89
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:40 AM
12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down.
Maps change with EVERY run, lol Amwx poster showed NEMI again ground zero with 30+ inches. MQT's morning AFD wants peeps to "cool it" since this comes in several waves just like 1st wk of Feb did for SMI. Thus, it's not one massive hit and the impacts will not be the same as if it were.
- St Paul Storm likes this
Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3" Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!
Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"
Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"
Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"
Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)
Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"
Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."
#90
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:43 AM
Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here.
How 'bout 40F and RN? (just like mby for the last 6 wks)
Snow_Nazi.PNG 774.92KB
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3" Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!
Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"
Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"
Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"
Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)
Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"
Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."
#91
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:45 AM
Would think ground surfaces would stuggle to really accumulate ice. Snow is a different story of course. Trees and power lines would have no problem accumulating ice
Agreed
It will be interesting how this trends in the next 48 hours.
Gut feeling?
#92
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:47 AM
- jaster220 likes this
#93
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:53 AM
- St Paul Storm likes this
#94
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:54 AM
Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.
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- Snowshoe likes this
Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3" Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!
Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"
Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"
Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"
Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)
Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"
Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."
#96
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:56 AM
Agreed
It will be interesting how this trends in the next 48 hours.
Gut feeling?
More effin swamp wx for mby! Somebody just wake me and tell me the past 2 months were just a bad dream
Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3" Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!
Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"
Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"
Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"
Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)
Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"
Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."
#97
Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:58 AM
12z EPS did in fact shift south and colder. Hmm, that Euro op run may be on to something.
12z GEFS also came in south although not as much as the EPS.
#98
Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:16 PM
12z GEFS also came in south although not as much as the EPS.
The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.
#99
Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:22 PM
The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.
Can't argue that but I will be cheering loudly against it!
#100
Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:23 PM
The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.
We should know a lot more within the next 48 hours. Would leave us within 2-3 days