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April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse

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#101
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:26 PM

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12z EPS did in fact shift south and colder. Hmm, that Euro op run may be on to something.


What does the euro control run say?

#102
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:27 PM

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What does the euro control run say?


Don’t have access...maybe Grizz can post...
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#103
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:31 PM

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Our football coaching staff at our High School is going to Lincoln Friday morning for the University of Nebraska Coaches Clinic for HS Coaches in the State.  We are driving back to Central Nebraska around Noon on Saturday (about a 2 hour drive west of Lincoln).  I would be more excited for snow if I was at home, but driving home on I-80 with 50 MPH wind gusts and possible snow would not be ideal.  Those that have driven Nebraska know it is flat as a pancake in Central regions.  Will be anxiously watching this storm all week.



#104
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:44 PM

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What does the euro control run say?


I’m basing this on snow depth map on weather.us, but it appears that the control showed something similar to the op run.

Attached Files



#105
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Our football coaching staff at our High School is going to Lincoln Friday morning for the University of Nebraska Coaches Clinic for HS Coaches in the State.  We are driving back to Central Nebraska around Noon on Saturday (about a 2 hour drive west of Lincoln).  I would be more excited for snow if I was at home, but driving home on I-80 with 50 MPH wind gusts and possible snow would not be ideal.  Those that have driven Nebraska know it is flat as a pancake in Central regions.  Will be anxiously watching this storm all week.

I can only imagine...having driven down this hwy, that kind of wind would not be cool...


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#106
VMB443

Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:58 PM

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I like how Milwaukee’s write-up starts:

“If you like a long duration, wet and cold weekend, you've struck Gold.”
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#107
bud2380

Posted 10 April 2018 - 01:03 PM

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Des Moines says the Euro is unrealistic.  C'mon, we could get 26" in Iowa in April.  It would break the states all time snow record for any month, but still.  

 

 

 

The ECMWF and GEM have both latched onto
this while the GFS solutions have not. A couple things, this could
cause the surface low to begin to fill through the day Friday which
could decrease the severe weather potential then it could lead to a
more prolonged chance for a switch over to winter precipitation on
Saturday with falling temperatures by the afternoon. For now, will
maintain the threat for thunderstorms and some severe weather on
Friday and the transition from rain to snow on Saturday. The ECMWF
in particular is quite ugly regarding snow potential late Saturday
into Sunday. The current solution snow projections are unrealistic
but likely will be dealing with winter weather again.



#108
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 01:04 PM

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I can only imagine...having driven down this hwy, that kind of wind would not be cool...

I knew you had driven this Tom. I’m not exaggerating, am I? Waiting for afternoon discos and what their thoughts are for Saturday.
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#109
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2018 - 01:13 PM

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MPX riding the GFS for now as well due to its relative consistency.

#110
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 01:57 PM

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No big changes on the 18z gfs

Similar to 12z

#111
Tony

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:08 PM

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The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.

Looks like we might be looking at a little more snow this coming weekend and It could be very significant for some areas if the Euro does pan out. If its going to snow then it might as well be a monster. Has plaster written all over this one. This one actually has me a little intrigued as it has been continuously shifting south and colder and plenty of available moisture. I will track this one as it should be the last...I hope! 



#112
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:09 PM

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Pretty hefty backside on NAM. Too bad it's 84 hours out.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#113
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:23 PM

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NWS Hastings getting a little more concerned as the storm keeps coming south. Said winds could gust to 60 mph and if snow is flying would create severe travel concerns on Saturday. Not what I am wanting to hear. Still a couple of days away. Will be extremely interested to say the least.

#114
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:34 PM

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It's been a long time since I've seen OAX use "very windy" wording. They're using it for Saturday here while it's supposedly gonna snow.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#115
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:40 PM

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Pretty hefty backside on NAM. Too bad it's 84 hours out.


Looks a lot colder than GFS too

#116
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:44 PM

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Looks a lot colder than GFS too


NAM always has a cold bias.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#117
gosaints

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:51 PM

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NAM always has a cold bias.


And the gfs has a warm bias

#118
james1976

Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:55 PM

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Hows 18z snowfall map looking?

#119
Madtown

Posted 10 April 2018 - 03:12 PM

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Wow....really hope this just disappears all together trying to get a gravel pad done before my shed gets delivered next week... im going eith 35 n 2in of rain for me, althoigh that snow sure seems to be creeping closer.

#120
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 06:32 PM

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0z Nam farther south/colder more blocking

Not that it matters considering the model

#121
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 06:50 PM

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12z euro At 96

https://www.tropical...018041012&fh=96

Nam at 84

https://www.tropical...18041100&fh=108

#122
hlcater

Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:26 PM

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the NAM/Euro have always been buds on this event since the NAM came in range. The GFS is the progressive outlier(surprise there), whereas the former two models are slower and generally further south. Both of those also have higher severe probabilities than the GFS. One area along the warm front/triple point in Iowa, and the other down in the Arklatex. 


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#123
buzzman289

Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:28 PM

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IOWA magnet in full effect



#124
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:42 PM

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Gfs coming in south as well along with the icon
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#125
NH4NU

Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:57 PM

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GFS has heavy snow for a lot of central Neb at 78hrs



#126
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:07 PM

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Gfs def took a step towards the euro

Even with the secondary low. Just doesn’t develop it in time for most of us
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#127
james1976

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:10 PM

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Gonna be power outtages.



#128
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:12 PM

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IOWA magnet in full effect

Iowa magnet? Are you kidding me lol. Northern Iowa one way or the other has always managed to get smacked with snow with each storm lol.

 

The latest GFS had the low slightly a tad west, every mile will count when it comes to getting a few inches of snow here. This storm is pulling some whacky s**t so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few curve balls thrown.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#129
hlcater

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:23 PM

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Iowa magnet? Are you kidding me lol. Northern Iowa one way or the other has always managed to get smacked with snow with each storm lol.

 

The latest GFS had the low slightly a tad west, every mile will count when it comes to getting a few inches of snow here. This storm is pulling some whacky s**t so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few curve balls thrown.

You're delusional.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#130
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:24 PM

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You're delusional.


Thoughts on the 0z runs so far?

#131
Illinois_WX

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:31 PM

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Iowa magnet? Are you kidding me lol. Northern Iowa one way or the other has always managed to get smacked with snow with each storm lol.

The latest GFS had the low slightly a tad west, every mile will count when it comes to getting a few inches of snow here. This storm is pulling some whacky s**t so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few curve balls thrown.


Right, which reaffirms that there is an Iowa magnet lol I’m confused as to what you mean?

Just hoping for something interesting in my last few weeks here, but GFS isn’t impressive for Neb really, just the same old story of a low going right over us with a dry slot.
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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~5" (as of 11/27/18) 

 

 

 

 

 


#132
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:33 PM

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Gem

https://www.tropical...18041100&fh=144

#133
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:38 PM

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Right, which reaffirms that there is an Iowa magnet lol I’m confused as to what you mean?

Just hoping for something interesting in my last few weeks here, but GFS isn’t impressive for Neb really, just the same old story of a low going right over us with a dry slot.

I know, I read it wrong. Just my inner bitterness at them lol. Im hoping this thing can either move just enough west so we can get some severe storms or move just slightly more south and east so we can at least pick up some snow. The ICON model and the NAM moved slightly west so maybe we can score some severe weather with the crazy amount of shear profiles there is.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#134
hlcater

Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:51 PM

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Thoughts on the 0z runs so far?

TBH, not really. The GFS seems to have been almost certainly too progressive with the evolution of the 500mb trough and therefore the surface low. Also the trend for a more elongated low as opposed to a consolidated one should preclude occlusion which was a common theme up until yesterday. Now it seems that south is the name of the game, more in line with the Euro, with the 00z NAM coming in even slower than the Euro had been. All models have also been trending flatter/less amplified, but that's been a trend for how long now? So that is not at all surprising. Can't really comment on snow potential because I haven't been following it, because frankly I'm sick of it. I'm in full severe wx mode, which I tend to think I'm far more knowledgeable on anyways. Thursday would have been one helluva day in the plains if the 500mb trough and ascent would have been faster, cooling mid level temps. Thursday was never really in the cards though, as the entire warm sector is nuclear capped. After this trough all reasonable moisture seems to want to take a vacation to the equator for several days. Yippee.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#135
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:09 PM

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The 0z GFS ensembles moved the snow amounts quite a bit south. Some impressive ones too for eastern NEB


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#136
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:10 PM

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Gfs ensembles are coming in solid

https://www.tropical...18041100&fh=102

Good cluster of sub 995 L’s in Central IL with the secondary low

#137
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:10 PM

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Ukie is the furthest S so far of the 00Z runs at 72 hrs



#138
WBadgersW

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:11 PM

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What complete crap. At this rate I'm going to see a couple inches of snow.

#139
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:12 PM

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https://www.tropical...18041100&fh=120

.75 qpf showing up in the ensemble mean with .5 into IA. Much wetter than previous runs

#140
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:16 PM

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Here’s Euro at 120

https://www.tropical...18041012&fh=114

GFS Ensembles

https://www.tropical...18041100&fh=108

Really close overall

#141
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:24 PM

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Ukie destroys most of SD.Attached File  PA_000-072_0000.gif   182.25KB   0 downloads



#142
Hawkeye

Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:53 PM

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From what I see, the big difference between the euro and other models is the euro is cutting off the upper low completely, while the others keep it connected, at least a bit, to the jet stream, which also stretches the low north-south.  Cutting it off into a nice circle allows the secondary energy to get pulled back into Iowa.  If the upper low is stretched n-s, the secondary energy gets shot up into Michigan.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#143
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:22 PM

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Euro should be another big run

#144
Hawkeye

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:28 PM

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00z Euro has a similar scenario to 12z, but there is one notable change.  The 00z run has strengthened some upper energy up in southern Canada, north of Lake Superior, and this energy acts to pull on the midwest upper low just enough to stretch it a bit and cause it to move a bit farther east and north compared to the 12z run.  So, the snowstorm shifts east.  This slight north pull also causes this run to push the warm front back north somewhat on Friday.  Obviously, the interaction between the various pieces of energy will cause many important changes between now and the weekend.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_ptype_slp_greatlakes_114.png   228.1KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_vort_500_conus_108.png   239.96KB   0 downloads


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#145
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:31 PM

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Attached File  ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-126-C-frozentot10k_whitecounty.png   68.27KB   0 downloads


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#146
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:32 PM

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The fact that it’s still spitting out 2 feet + in areas is impressive

https://weather.us/m...0416-0300z.html

#147
james1976

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:32 PM

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What a powerhouse. Gonna be some epic mid April snow totals somewhere in the forum.

#148
Money

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:33 PM

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Grizz do you have ice accumulation maps by any chance?

#149
james1976

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:35 PM

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Not liking how it gets its act together too far to the east.

#150
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:37 PM

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Grizz do you have ice accumulation maps by any chance?

No-- (from most of the raw #'s I have been looking at - ice shouldn't be an issue but I haven't looked everywhere) but I got the Euro in Kuchera...Attached File  ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-138-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png   74.42KB   0 downloads