Snowshoe Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm. ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.pngecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.pngecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png Where's the dislike button? Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Omg! Well if it snows i hope its epic. No cold cloudy windy crap.70s and storms or heavy snow!I think 70s are out. Warm fronts struggle to get as far north as modeled this time of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 5.5 inches of QPF LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 LOL- This one would be a fun one to guess totals for specific areas. Duluth- Eau Claire-MSP-Gosaints backyard on the ridge-Cedar Repaids-James-Madison-Green Bay-Money's backyard-We should submit our guesses soon, to make it that much more entertaining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Temps look well below freezing https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wisconsin/temperature-f/20180415-1200z.html Those are the temps with the bulk of the precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Gulf of Mexico is wide open it appears... Quite intriguing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 One thing about the ice accumulation Being mid April you would tend to not have significant ice considering warm surface temps etc so that’s something to consider but it’s been pretty cold lately so who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 One thing about the ice accumulation Being mid April you would tend to not have significant ice considering warm surface temps etc so that’s something to consider but it’s been pretty cold lately so who knowsWould think ground surfaces would stuggle to really accumulate ice. Snow is a different story of course. Trees and power lines would have no problem accumulating ice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down. Maps change with EVERY run, lol Amwx poster showed NEMI again ground zero with 30+ inches. MQT's morning AFD wants peeps to "cool it" since this comes in several waves just like 1st wk of Feb did for SMI. Thus, it's not one massive hit and the impacts will not be the same as if it were. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here. How 'bout 40F and RN? (just like mby for the last 6 wks) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Would think ground surfaces would stuggle to really accumulate ice. Snow is a different story of course. Trees and power lines would have no problem accumulating iceAgreed It will be interesting how this trends in the next 48 hours. Gut feeling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Euro showing a snow depth of 79” west of Marquette on Monday afternoon. Holy balls. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 12z EPS did in fact shift south and colder. Hmm, that Euro op run may be on to something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm. ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.pngecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.pngecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png 1st map = 2nd map = 3rd map = 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2018041012&fh=120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Agreed It will be interesting how this trends in the next 48 hours. Gut feeling? More effin swamp wx for mby! Somebody just wake me and tell me the past 2 months were just a bad dream Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 12z EPS did in fact shift south and colder. Hmm, that Euro op run may be on to something.12z GEFS also came in south although not as much as the EPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 12z GEFS also came in south although not as much as the EPS.The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack. Can't argue that but I will be cheering loudly against it! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.We should know a lot more within the next 48 hours. Would leave us within 2-3 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 12z EPS did in fact shift south and colder. Hmm, that Euro op run may be on to something.What does the euro control run say? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 What does the euro control run say?Don’t have access...maybe Grizz can post... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Our football coaching staff at our High School is going to Lincoln Friday morning for the University of Nebraska Coaches Clinic for HS Coaches in the State. We are driving back to Central Nebraska around Noon on Saturday (about a 2 hour drive west of Lincoln). I would be more excited for snow if I was at home, but driving home on I-80 with 50 MPH wind gusts and possible snow would not be ideal. Those that have driven Nebraska know it is flat as a pancake in Central regions. Will be anxiously watching this storm all week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 What does the euro control run say?I’m basing this on snow depth map on weather.us, but it appears that the control showed something similar to the op run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Our football coaching staff at our High School is going to Lincoln Friday morning for the University of Nebraska Coaches Clinic for HS Coaches in the State. We are driving back to Central Nebraska around Noon on Saturday (about a 2 hour drive west of Lincoln). I would be more excited for snow if I was at home, but driving home on I-80 with 50 MPH wind gusts and possible snow would not be ideal. Those that have driven Nebraska know it is flat as a pancake in Central regions. Will be anxiously watching this storm all week.I can only imagine...having driven down this hwy, that kind of wind would not be cool... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 I like how Milwaukee’s write-up starts: “If you like a long duration, wet and cold weekend, you've struck Gold.” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Des Moines says the Euro is unrealistic. C'mon, we could get 26" in Iowa in April. It would break the states all time snow record for any month, but still. The ECMWF and GEM have both latched ontothis while the GFS solutions have not. A couple things, this couldcause the surface low to begin to fill through the day Friday whichcould decrease the severe weather potential then it could lead to amore prolonged chance for a switch over to winter precipitation onSaturday with falling temperatures by the afternoon. For now, willmaintain the threat for thunderstorms and some severe weather onFriday and the transition from rain to snow on Saturday. The ECMWFin particular is quite ugly regarding snow potential late Saturdayinto Sunday. The current solution snow projections are unrealisticbut likely will be dealing with winter weather again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 I can only imagine...having driven down this hwy, that kind of wind would not be cool...I knew you had driven this Tom. I’m not exaggerating, am I? Waiting for afternoon discos and what their thoughts are for Saturday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 MPX riding the GFS for now as well due to its relative consistency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 No big changes on the 18z gfs Similar to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.Looks like we might be looking at a little more snow this coming weekend and It could be very significant for some areas if the Euro does pan out. If its going to snow then it might as well be a monster. Has plaster written all over this one. This one actually has me a little intrigued as it has been continuously shifting south and colder and plenty of available moisture. I will track this one as it should be the last...I hope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Pretty hefty backside on NAM. Too bad it's 84 hours out. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 NWS Hastings getting a little more concerned as the storm keeps coming south. Said winds could gust to 60 mph and if snow is flying would create severe travel concerns on Saturday. Not what I am wanting to hear. Still a couple of days away. Will be extremely interested to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 It's been a long time since I've seen OAX use "very windy" wording. They're using it for Saturday here while it's supposedly gonna snow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Pretty hefty backside on NAM. Too bad it's 84 hours out.Looks a lot colder than GFS too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Looks a lot colder than GFS tooNAM always has a cold bias. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 NAM always has a cold bias.And the gfs has a warm bias Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Hows 18z snowfall map looking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 10, 2018 Report Share Posted April 10, 2018 Wow....really hope this just disappears all together trying to get a gravel pad done before my shed gets delivered next week... im going eith 35 n 2in of rain for me, althoigh that snow sure seems to be creeping closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 0z Nam farther south/colder more blocking Not that it matters considering the model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.