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April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse


Tom

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening.  It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png

 

Where's the dislike button? 

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One thing about the ice accumulation

 

Being mid April you would tend to not have significant ice considering warm surface temps etc so that’s something to consider but it’s been pretty cold lately so who knows

Would think ground surfaces would stuggle to really accumulate ice.  Snow is a different story of course.  Trees and power lines would have no problem accumulating ice

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12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down.

 

Maps change with EVERY run, lol   Amwx poster showed NEMI again ground zero with 30+ inches. MQT's morning AFD wants peeps to "cool it" since this comes in several waves just like 1st wk of Feb did for SMI. Thus, it's not one massive hit and the impacts will not be the same as if it were. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here. ;)

 

How 'bout 40F and RN? (just like mby for the last 6 wks)

 

Snow_Nazi.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening.  It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png

 

1st map = Axe_head.gif

2nd map = Axe_head.gif

3rd map = Axe_head.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Agreed

 

It will be interesting how this trends in the next 48 hours.

 

Gut feeling?

 

More effin swamp wx for mby!  Somebody just wake me and tell me the past 2 months were just a bad dream 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GEFS also came in south although not as much as the EPS.

The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.

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The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.

We should know a lot more within the next 48 hours. Would leave us within 2-3 days

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Our football coaching staff at our High School is going to Lincoln Friday morning for the University of Nebraska Coaches Clinic for HS Coaches in the State.  We are driving back to Central Nebraska around Noon on Saturday (about a 2 hour drive west of Lincoln).  I would be more excited for snow if I was at home, but driving home on I-80 with 50 MPH wind gusts and possible snow would not be ideal.  Those that have driven Nebraska know it is flat as a pancake in Central regions.  Will be anxiously watching this storm all week.

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Our football coaching staff at our High School is going to Lincoln Friday morning for the University of Nebraska Coaches Clinic for HS Coaches in the State.  We are driving back to Central Nebraska around Noon on Saturday (about a 2 hour drive west of Lincoln).  I would be more excited for snow if I was at home, but driving home on I-80 with 50 MPH wind gusts and possible snow would not be ideal.  Those that have driven Nebraska know it is flat as a pancake in Central regions.  Will be anxiously watching this storm all week.

I can only imagine...having driven down this hwy, that kind of wind would not be cool...

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Des Moines says the Euro is unrealistic.  C'mon, we could get 26" in Iowa in April.  It would break the states all time snow record for any month, but still.  

 

 

 

The ECMWF and GEM have both latched onto
this while the GFS solutions have not. A couple things, this could
cause the surface low to begin to fill through the day Friday which
could decrease the severe weather potential then it could lead to a
more prolonged chance for a switch over to winter precipitation on
Saturday with falling temperatures by the afternoon. For now, will
maintain the threat for thunderstorms and some severe weather on
Friday and the transition from rain to snow on Saturday. The ECMWF
in particular is quite ugly regarding snow potential late Saturday
into Sunday. The current solution snow projections are unrealistic
but likely will be dealing with winter weather again.

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The trends over the next 24 hours should be telling. Inside 48hrs we will hash out the finer details. Gut feeling is the block will be strong and funnel a lot of cold air off of that Canadian snowpack.

Looks like we might be looking at a little more snow this coming weekend and It could be very significant for some areas if the Euro does pan out. If its going to snow then it might as well be a monster. Has plaster written all over this one. This one actually has me a little intrigued as it has been continuously shifting south and colder and plenty of available moisture. I will track this one as it should be the last...I hope! 

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