April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse

[Money]

Nam is pretty similar to 6z through 48 maybe a tad nw

[Minny_Weather]

This storm is starting to hit the local media and schools.  Already talk about changes to schedules potentially on Saturday.  NWS Hastings still not ready to hoist any type of watches yet, but is concerned about snow and very strong winds that could severely impact travel this weekend.  It seems like almost all of our storms this year in Central Nebraska have hit on a weekend.  I will post updates as they occur.  With myself traveling this weekend, I am very concerned.  I used to take chances with travel in any type of weather when I was younger, but I have much more respect now for the power of storms.

The 2" that's being forecasted for here doesn't do justice for how hard it could come down and the wind. It's mid-April, surface temps will likely be above freezing, this will be low-ratio slush. Ground won't be able to support snow initially considering we hit the upper 60s yesterday and will be in the 70s the next few days. It'll take a LOT to get 2" here. 

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like the NAM trying to dig deep at hr 57. Down to 988 and falling.

[gosaints]

wow that is some beautiful cold rain on the NAM.  33 and thunder

[Money]

Nam is about 4 mb stronger than last nights euro at this time but the L location is pretty similar overall

[Money]

Looks like the NAM trying to dig deep at hr 57. Down to 988 and falling.

HR 66 and it’s about 8 mb weaker:

 

Only 1 mb différence stronger compared to 6z

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah really craps out.

[Money]

Looks like SPS does well with snow

 

Sleet fest over this way

 

Doesn’t look like it has any secondary low forming at the end of its run tho

[gosaints]

Looks like SPS does well with snow

 

Sleet fest over this way

 

Doesn’t look like it has any secondary low forming at the end of its run tho

secondary pieces are impossible to predict.  

[Stacsh]

It looks to me this storm will be a pattern breaker and we go more zonal in its wake.  

[St Paul Storm]

16” Kuchera....and still snowing at the end of the run. 25”+ to the west of here. It’s nice to look at, but the models are difficult to believe with blocking in place and a possible secondary piece of energy moving up from the south.

[CentralNebWeather]

NAM drills many parts of Nebraska.  Assuming the snow is wet and heavy, along with 50+ MPH winds, watch out.  Will be interesting to see the other models.  Looking like I might be changing travel plans if this verifies.

[Stormgeek]

16” Kuchera....and still snowing at the end of the run. 25”+ to the west of here. It’s nice to look at, but the models are difficult to believe with blocking in place and a possible secondary piece of energy moving up from the south.

21 and still snowing here. Fun to be able to watch clown maps this close. Obviously expecting things to be much more realistic. Better samping on shore is really vital with this because of the other factors that are also causing issues i.e the blocking combined with the usual uncertainties.

[Money]

Gfs back N a bit

 

Less blocking

[Money]

Icon develops the secondary low and crushes GB area with 12+

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018041112&fh=126

[gosaints]

This thing wont be close to pinned down until friday

[Money]

12z gfs more backside precip with the secondary low

 

Good hit for SPS and gosaints

 

GB gets nearly a foot

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018041112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111

[St Paul Storm]

Another 16” run on the 12z GFS. More than that by Stormgeek. GEM looks like another crush job too. Interested to see what the ensembles show.

[Money]

Another 16” run on the 12z GFS. More than that by Stormgeek. GEM looks like another crush job too. Interested to see what the ensembles show.

You guys look golden on the 12z runs today

[Stormgeek]

Another 16” run on the 12z GFS. More than that by Stormgeek. GEM looks like another crush job too. Interested to see what the ensembles show.

Waiting for the bombshell runs that this falls apart on before I start judgement, but trends so far are nice. Heard first prediction of totals by Lynch on WCCO going with 2-4. Interested to see how that ages with such a wild and very complex system.

 

Edit: Funny note: Paul Douglas in his blog today, before the 12z NAM said he was "Praying the NAM Verifies. Not sure I can take a foot of snow in the Twin Cities early in the weekend". Kind of funny and shows how models can be sometimes.

[Grizzcoat]

The S trend continues here in North Central,IA-  DMX says NW-- things are starting to say more N to NC. (at least for IA)

[Grizzcoat]

Waiting for the bombshell runs that this falls apart on before I start judgement, but trends so far are nice. Heard first prediction of totals by Lynch on WCCO going with 2-4. Interested to see how that ages with such a wild and very complex system.

Mike Lynch needs to call it and stay in FL. Typical snowbird forecast that returned N too early.

[Money]

The S trend continues here in North Central,IA-  DMX says NW-- things are starting to say more N to NC. (at least for IA)snku_acc.us_mw.png

Seems like it’s trending more to euros each run.

 

Ukie should be interesting as well in a lil bit

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The heavy snow is literally on our door step in Omaha. Judt need a 50 mile shift east

[gabel23]

This storm is starting to feel a lot like one we had earlier this winter. Here is what that map looked like...I expect the watches to start expanding this afternoon. 

[NEJeremy]

Unless there's changes, I'll be chasing Friday in Iowa. 12Z NAM models today paint a decent setup in southern Iowa. I plan on going just east of the surface low and near the warm front. Shear profiles look better on today's runs of the NAM and even the GFS vs yesterday's runs. 

[Grizzcoat]

It seems like (esp on the S edge ) the snow field is expanding on the 12Z GFS compared to previous runs. Especially in WI, and NC IA. 

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

[gabel23]

The way this system is trending, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chitown get some accumulating snow.  Last nights 00z EPS did shift south a bit from its previous 00z run and def colder once it pushes to the east when the secondary piece re-energizes the system.  Quite the mid-April powerhouse slow bowling ball!  BTW, this pattern is going to produce several more before the month is out.

Tom, correct me if I'm wrong but this storm is matching up with the one that occurred on Jan. 21 which would make it 82 days ago or 2 cycles ago?? 

[Money]

Ukie

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

[Stormgeek]

Not sure how Kuchera would work with this system, but Kuchera Canadian would shut down MSP; 25+....

[NEJeremy]

a couple of soundings in southwest Iowa

[Tom]

Tom, correct me if I'm wrong but this storm is matching up with the one that occurred on Jan. 21 which would make it 82 days ago or 2 cycles ago?? 

This is actually the first storm of LRC cycle #1 way back on Oct 6th/7th, then cycled through around Thanksgiving, then Jan 11th-13th and back on Feb 23rd-24th (severe wx outbreak in AR/NE TX).  The cycle is around 47.5 days.  In essence, we are starting LRC cycle #5.

[Minny_Weather]

a couple of soundings in southwest Iowa

I may end up going down there too. Looks nice.

[GDR]

Keep it north and bring on severe weather

[St Paul Storm]

Not sure how Kuchera would work with this system, but Kuchera Canadian would shut down MSP; 25+....

Haha....that would be the 2nd biggest snowfall event on record, only behind the Halloween blizzard of ‘91. If that happens I’ll deliver some of my snow to Craig’s doorstep in Omaha.

[Money]

Gfs ensembles are all over the map for the secondary piece

[St Paul Storm]

Waiting for the bombshell runs that this falls apart on before I start judgement, but trends so far are nice. Heard first prediction of totals by Lynch on WCCO going with 2-4. Interested to see how that ages with such a wild and very complex system.Edit: Funny note: Paul Douglas in his blog today, before the 12z NAM said he was "Praying the NAM Verifies. Not sure I can take a foot of snow in the Twin Cities early in the weekend". Kind of funny and shows how models can be sometimes.

Here’s what Paul Douglas’s updated blog now says:

‘Stay tuned for continuous updates on what may be an historic, mid-April snowfall. So far the Twin Cities have picked up 10.3" so far in April. The all-time April snowfall record for MSP is 21.8" set in 1983. At the rate we're going we may come close.’

[gosaints]

Gfs ensembles are all over the map for the secondary piece

Ukie says you should buy a canoe either way

[St Paul Storm]

12z GEFS.