[Money]

Might as well right?

NAM:

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

6z GFS

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Money]

12z Icon gives gosaints area another 8+

https://www.tropical...018041512&fh=78

[gosaints]

Narrow band with this one. Interesting to see where it sets up.

Only couple days away

[Money]

12z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

1+ qpf again with this system

[gosaints]

12z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

1+ qpf again with this system

Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...

[Money]

Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...

Couple things going for it

1. Dynamics. 1+ qpf in short period
2. Snow cover: should still be at least some snow on the ground which should help it accumulate at least on grassy areas

Things going against it:

1. Marginal 2m and 850 temps. Temps are in the 32-34 range but if dynamics are strong enough that could overcome this
2. Time of day/April sun. Looks to come through in the middle of the day

But 3 snowstorms in the first 2 1/2 weeks in April is impressive

[gosaints]

Euro south of the gfs

[Hawkeye]

The euro continues to advertise one heck of an intense snow band, with 1.2" of precip falling in six hours.  I'm really looking forward to watching this system.

 

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[Money]

18z nam

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[St Paul Storm]

MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.

[james1976]

MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.

What you at now?

[St Paul Storm]

What you at now?

I’m at around 16-17” and still ripping with the current storm.

[Money]

MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.

18z gfs gets you back in the game

[St Paul Storm]

18z gfs gets you back in the game

I haven’t looked yet at the 18z but I see on the 12z GEFS many members are north of the 12z op run. The 12z GEM was north too. Certainly warrants keeping an eye on.

[Money]

Here’s the 18z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

4+ here again and 6+ for gosaints and SPS

[james1976]

Interesting how NAM & Euro have the snow oriented more SW-NE but GFS is NW-SE. At least for the heavier snow.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Rooting for the NAM/EURO

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol

[gosaints]

I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol

Atmospheric dynamics will take it into consideration

[Money]

I don’t even know why you would root for snow anymore

[LNK_Weather]

I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol

It's mid-April.

[OKwx2k4]

You guys are absolutely nuts. Buuut, hey, so is the weather.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I am nuts i could take snow every month if i could.

[hlcater]

I am nuts i could take snow every month if i could.

Move to Canada then.

[NEJeremy]

Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

Mike Hollingshead right? Saw it too. Might have to keep an eye on it

[LNK_Weather]

Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

[Money]

0z Nam has a fun small band

That would be tough to forecast

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

0z Nam has a fun small band

That would be tough to forecast

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Even I cash in close to 2 inches. My backyard is at average for this winter now. 

[LNK_Weather]

Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.

Thankfully I do live right by 2 gas stations so I usually just take it there.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.

 

[LNK_Weather]

I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.

 

The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.

[gosaints]

Decent sampling this run....

Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface.

Of and probably a really narrow weenie band

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.

Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Theres our hail storms

 

 

Then heavy snow lol

 

[Money]

Decent sampling this run....
Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface.
Of and probably a really narrow weenie band

Agreed

I do think it should accumulate right away especially if there’s still snow cover

[NEJeremy]

Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

We were hit with the 6/29 hailstorm last year and had to get a new roof. Our homeowner's insurance went up 30%. I love severe weather but hate the damage.

[Money]

Icon looks to hit N IA/S MN pretty good

https://www.tropical...018041600&fh=63

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Icon looks to hit N IA/S MN pretty good

https://www.tropical...018041600&fh=63

 

Its weird because the low is in the same position as the NAM is but its way further away north of the low. 

[james1976]

Lot of dynamics. Spring storm system
My guess is pretty iso cash in job.

[Money]

Gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[NEJeremy]

Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before.

This situation doesn’t look like that especially at least initially. Look at the soundings. Everything from at least 700mb down is quite a bit above freezing. In the instances where you get cooling or snowfall when it’s above freezing, most of the atmosphere just above the surface is below zero

[bud2380]

Winter storm watches issued for some areas

[james1976]

Surprised to see my county in a WSW although i think its mainly for ice potential.

[Money]

Nam takes the low just NE of STL while GFS is much stronger and takes it into S WI

12z NAM

https://www.tropical...018041612&fh=51

[bud2380]

This is very odd, but the NAM appears to be the weakest of all the models.  There's a first time for everything I guess.

 

 

[gosaints]

The low is south and weaker on the NAM versus other models, but the at the 500 level things are quite similar.  The vort on the NAM is impressive

[bud2380]

3k NAM even less snow.  

 

[bud2380]

This is last night's Euro for comparison.  Looks like the WSW was based heavily on the Euro as some counties in the watch area are showing no or little snow on the GFS and NAM.

 

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