
April 18th-19th Snowstorm
#1
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:49 AM
NAM:
http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=
6z GFS
http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=
#3
Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:52 AM
Only couple days away
#5
Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:57 AM
12z gfs
http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=
1+ qpf again with this system
Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...
#6
Posted 15 April 2018 - 08:03 AM
Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...
Couple things going for it
1. Dynamics. 1+ qpf in short period
2. Snow cover: should still be at least some snow on the ground which should help it accumulate at least on grassy areas
Things going against it:
1. Marginal 2m and 850 temps. Temps are in the 32-34 range but if dynamics are strong enough that could overcome this
2. Time of day/April sun. Looks to come through in the middle of the day
But 3 snowstorms in the first 2 1/2 weeks in April is impressive
#8
Posted 15 April 2018 - 10:31 AM
The euro continues to advertise one heck of an intense snow band, with 1.2" of precip falling in six hours. I'm really looking forward to watching this system.
ecmwf_ptype_slp_mw_72.png 144.05KB
0 downloads
ecmwf_24h_snow_mw_84.png 99.46KB
0 downloads
- Tom likes this
season snowfall: 43.5"
'17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1"
Average snowfall: ~30"
#10
Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:29 PM
#11
Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:34 PM
What you at now?MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.
#12
Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:36 PM
What you at now?
I’m at around 16-17” and still ripping with the current storm.
- james1976 likes this
#13
Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:46 PM
MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.
18z gfs gets you back in the game
#14
Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:55 PM
18z gfs gets you back in the game
I haven’t looked yet at the 18z but I see on the 12z GEFS many members are north of the 12z op run. The 12z GEM was north too. Certainly warrants keeping an eye on.
#16
Posted 15 April 2018 - 02:14 PM
#17
Posted 15 April 2018 - 04:21 PM
Rooting for the NAM/EURO
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#18
Posted 15 April 2018 - 04:43 PM
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#19
Posted 15 April 2018 - 04:50 PM
I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol
Atmospheric dynamics will take it into consideration
- Money and Stormgeek like this
#21
Posted 15 April 2018 - 05:20 PM
I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol
It's mid-April.
- jaster220 likes this
>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")
Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1" Coldest Low: -8*F
First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:
Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)
Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)
SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)
SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)
SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)
SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)
#23
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:02 PM
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#24
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:09 PM
I am nuts i could take snow every month if i could.
Move to Canada then.
- jaster220 likes this
2018-19 Snowfall:
TOTAL: 44.0"
(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8")
Formerly NWLinn
#25
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:10 PM
Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.
Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.
- LNK_Weather likes this
#26
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:36 PM
Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.
Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.
Mike Hollingshead right? Saw it too. Might have to keep an eye on it
- NEJeremy likes this
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#27
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:39 PM
Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.
Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.
Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.
- jaster220 likes this
>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")
Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1" Coldest Low: -8*F
First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:
Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)
Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)
SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)
SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)
SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)
SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)
#29
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:45 PM
Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.
Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.
- jaster220 likes this
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#30
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:46 PM
0z Nam has a fun small band
That would be tough to forecast
http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=
Even I cash in close to 2 inches. My backyard is at average for this winter now.
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#31
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:46 PM
Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.
Thankfully I do live right by 2 gas stations so I usually just take it there.
>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")
Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1" Coldest Low: -8*F
First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:
Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)
Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)
SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)
SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)
SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)
SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)
#32
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:48 PM
I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#33
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:50 PM
I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.
The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.
- NEJeremy likes this
>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2")
Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 36.1" Coldest Low: -8*F
First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:
Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)
Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)
SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)
SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)
SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)
SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)
#34
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:53 PM
Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface.
Of and probably a really narrow weenie band
#35
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:54 PM
The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.
Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before.
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#36
Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:55 PM
Theres our hail storms
Then heavy snow lol
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#37
Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:17 PM
Decent sampling this run....
Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface.
Of and probably a really narrow weenie band
Agreed
I do think it should accumulate right away especially if there’s still snow cover
#38
Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:18 PM
Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.
We were hit with the 6/29 hailstorm last year and had to get a new roof. Our homeowner's insurance went up 30%. I love severe weather but hate the damage.
- jaster220 likes this
#40
Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:30 PM
Icon looks to hit N IA/S MN pretty good
https://www.tropical...018041600&fh=63
Its weird because the low is in the same position as the NAM is but its way further away north of the low.
2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 38.00"
For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :
#41
Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:46 PM
My guess is pretty iso cash in job.
#43
Posted 15 April 2018 - 08:03 PM
Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before.
This situation doesn’t look like that especially at least initially. Look at the soundings. Everything from at least 700mb down is quite a bit above freezing. In the instances where you get cooling or snowfall when it’s above freezing, most of the atmosphere just above the surface is below zero
- LNK_Weather likes this
#45
Posted 16 April 2018 - 04:00 AM
#46
Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:28 AM
12z NAM
https://www.tropical...018041612&fh=51
#47
Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:43 AM
This is very odd, but the NAM appears to be the weakest of all the models. There's a first time for everything I guess.
#48
Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:44 AM
The low is south and weaker on the NAM versus other models, but the at the 500 level things are quite similar. The vort on the NAM is impressive
#50
Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:57 AM
This is last night's Euro for comparison. Looks like the WSW was based heavily on the Euro as some counties in the watch area are showing no or little snow on the GFS and NAM.
ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_120 (1).png 155.22KB
0 downloads