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April 18th-19th Snowstorm

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#1
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:49 AM

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Might as well right?

NAM:

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

6z GFS

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#2
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:24 AM

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12z Icon gives gosaints area another 8+

https://www.tropical...018041512&fh=78

#3
gosaints

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:52 AM

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Narrow band with this one. Interesting to see where it sets up.

Only couple days away

#4
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:53 AM

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12z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

1+ qpf again with this system

#5
gosaints

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:57 AM

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12z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

1+ qpf again with this system


Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...

#6
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 08:03 AM

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Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...


Couple things going for it

1. Dynamics. 1+ qpf in short period
2. Snow cover: should still be at least some snow on the ground which should help it accumulate at least on grassy areas

Things going against it:

1. Marginal 2m and 850 temps. Temps are in the 32-34 range but if dynamics are strong enough that could overcome this
2. Time of day/April sun. Looks to come through in the middle of the day

But 3 snowstorms in the first 2 1/2 weeks in April is impressive

#7
gosaints

Posted 15 April 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Euro south of the gfs

#8
Hawkeye

Posted 15 April 2018 - 10:31 AM

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The euro continues to advertise one heck of an intense snow band, with 1.2" of precip falling in six hours.  I'm really looking forward to watching this system.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_ptype_slp_mw_72.png   144.05KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_24h_snow_mw_84.png   99.46KB   0 downloads


  • Tom likes this

season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#9
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 12:48 PM

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18z nam

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#10
St Paul Storm

Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:29 PM

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MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.

#11
james1976

Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:34 PM

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MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.

What you at now?

#12
St Paul Storm

Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:36 PM

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What you at now?


I’m at around 16-17” and still ripping with the current storm.
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#13
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:46 PM

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MPX saying this system is just as impressive as the ongoing storm in terms of forcing and potential snow. Gosaints into Iowa can have it. I can’t handle any more after this weekends disaster.


18z gfs gets you back in the game

#14
St Paul Storm

Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:55 PM

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18z gfs gets you back in the game


I haven’t looked yet at the 18z but I see on the 12z GEFS many members are north of the 12z op run. The 12z GEM was north too. Certainly warrants keeping an eye on.

#15
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 02:05 PM

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Here’s the 18z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

4+ here again and 6+ for gosaints and SPS

#16
james1976

Posted 15 April 2018 - 02:14 PM

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Interesting how NAM & Euro have the snow oriented more SW-NE but GFS is NW-SE. At least for the heavier snow.

#17
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 04:21 PM

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Rooting for the NAM/EURO


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#18
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 04:43 PM

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I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol

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#19
gosaints

Posted 15 April 2018 - 04:50 PM

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I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol


Atmospheric dynamics will take it into consideration
  • Money and Stormgeek like this

#20
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 05:15 PM

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I don’t even know why you would root for snow anymore

#21
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 April 2018 - 05:20 PM

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I think minnesota has had enough snow. Eastern neb needs to cash in lol


It's mid-April.
  • jaster220 likes this

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 April 2018 - 05:28 PM

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You guys are absolutely nuts. :lol: Buuut, hey, so is the weather.

#23
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:02 PM

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I am nuts i could take snow every month if i could.

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#24
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:09 PM

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I am nuts i could take snow every month if i could.

Move to Canada then.


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#25
NEJeremy

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:10 PM

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Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.


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#26
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:36 PM

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Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

Mike Hollingshead right? Saw it too. Might have to keep an eye on it


  • NEJeremy likes this

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#27
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:39 PM

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Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.


  • jaster220 likes this

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#28
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:43 PM

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0z Nam has a fun small band

That would be tough to forecast

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#29
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:45 PM

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Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.


  • jaster220 likes this

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https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#30
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:46 PM

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0z Nam has a fun small band

That would be tough to forecast

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Even I cash in close to 2 inches. My backyard is at average for this winter now. 


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#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:46 PM

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Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.

Thankfully I do live right by 2 gas stations so I usually just take it there.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#32
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:48 PM

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I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.

 

mucape.conus.png


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#33
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:50 PM

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I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.

 

mucape.conus.png

The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.


  • NEJeremy likes this

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#34
gosaints

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:53 PM

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Decent sampling this run....

Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface.

Of and probably a really narrow weenie band

#35
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:54 PM

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The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.

Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before. 


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#36
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 06:55 PM

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Theres our hail storms

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_55.png

 

Then heavy snow lol

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_59.png


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#37
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:17 PM

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Decent sampling this run....
Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface.
Of and probably a really narrow weenie band


Agreed

I do think it should accumulate right away especially if there’s still snow cover

#38
NEJeremy

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:18 PM

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Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

We were hit with the 6/29 hailstorm last year and had to get a new roof. Our homeowner's insurance went up 30%. I love severe weather but hate the damage.


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#39
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:21 PM

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Icon looks to hit N IA/S MN pretty good

https://www.tropical...018041600&fh=63

#40
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:30 PM

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Icon looks to hit N IA/S MN pretty good

https://www.tropical...018041600&fh=63

 

Its weird because the low is in the same position as the NAM is but its way further away north of the low. 


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#41
james1976

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:46 PM

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Lot of dynamics. Spring storm system
My guess is pretty iso cash in job.

#42
Money

Posted 15 April 2018 - 07:52 PM

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Gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#43
NEJeremy

Posted 15 April 2018 - 08:03 PM

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Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before.


This situation doesn’t look like that especially at least initially. Look at the soundings. Everything from at least 700mb down is quite a bit above freezing. In the instances where you get cooling or snowfall when it’s above freezing, most of the atmosphere just above the surface is below zero
  • LNK_Weather likes this

#44
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 03:22 AM

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Winter storm watches issued for some areas

#45
james1976

Posted 16 April 2018 - 04:00 AM

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Surprised to see my county in a WSW although i think its mainly for ice potential.

#46
Money

Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:28 AM

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Nam takes the low just NE of STL while GFS is much stronger and takes it into S WI

12z NAM

https://www.tropical...018041612&fh=51

#47
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:43 AM

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This is very odd, but the NAM appears to be the weakest of all the models.  There's a first time for everything I guess.

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#48
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:44 AM

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The low is south and weaker on the NAM versus other models, but the at the 500 level things are quite similar.  The vort on the NAM is impressive



#49
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:53 AM

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3k NAM even less snow.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#50
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:57 AM

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This is last night's Euro for comparison.  Looks like the WSW was based heavily on the Euro as some counties in the watch area are showing no or little snow on the GFS and NAM.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_120 (1).png   155.22KB   0 downloads