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April 18th-19th Snowstorm


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Questionable 850 temps but very impressive dynamics to work with... Lol at the idea we could have a storm follow the baroclinic zone in mid April...

Couple things going for it

 

1. Dynamics. 1+ qpf in short period

2. Snow cover: should still be at least some snow on the ground which should help it accumulate at least on grassy areas

 

Things going against it:

 

1. Marginal 2m and 850 temps. Temps are in the 32-34 range but if dynamics are strong enough that could overcome this

2. Time of day/April sun. Looks to come through in the middle of the day

 

But 3 snowstorms in the first 2 1/2 weeks in April is impressive

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The euro continues to advertise one heck of an intense snow band, with 1.2" of precip falling in six hours.  I'm really looking forward to watching this system.

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_mw_72.png

ecmwf_24h_snow_mw_84.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

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Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

Mike Hollingshead right? Saw it too. Might have to keep an eye on it

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Saw a guy reference the severe threat for southeast Nebraska if the GFS is right. Shows 1500 elevated CAPE, plenty of shear and temps in the mid 30s which reminded him of a hail storm we had in 4/2013 where up to baseball sized hail in Omaha and it was in the 30s.

Omaha WFO also referenced severe threat for Tuesday night in this afternoon's AFD.

Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

Us weather people have the advantage of seeing things ahead of time, think about where you could drive your car to take shelter.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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0z Nam has a fun small band

 

That would be tough to forecast

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041600&fh=78&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Even I cash in close to 2 inches. My backyard is at average for this winter now. 

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018041518/060/mucape.conus.png

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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I think with this much MUCAPE could be thunder snow in east central Nebraska and western Iowa that morning, with hail possible before that. May not be a lot of snow but it could come down for an hour really heavy.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018041518/060/mucape.conus.png

The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The ptype map shows rain. That would just be routine, maybe borderline severe thunderstorms.

Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before. 

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Decent sampling this run....

Not overly enthused as far as big totals. Some warm layers wrapped into that aloft not to mention the surface.

Of and probably a really narrow weenie band

Agreed

 

I do think it should accumulate right away especially if there’s still snow cover

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Absolutely nothing fun about severe hail. Any thrill of it gets instantly squashed when I remember the repair bills I'll have to pay for my car later.

We were hit with the 6/29 hailstorm last year and had to get a new roof. Our homeowner's insurance went up 30%. I love severe weather but hate the damage.

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Its weird because the low is in the same position as the NAM is but its way further away north of the low. 

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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