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April 18th-19th Snowstorm

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#51
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 06:58 AM

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The NAM have less precip all together.  I can buy the less snow no problem.  Its april after all, but there are some strong dynamics at play I think it will become more moist



#52
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 07:02 AM

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The Ukie looks almost identical in placement and strength as the Euro.

 

 

PA_000-072_0000.gif



#53
Money

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:03 AM

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GFS

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#54
james1976

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:15 AM

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3k NAM even less snow.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Thats a strange snowhole lol.
James/Gosaints omadome

#55
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:25 AM

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ICON total QPF

 

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_19.png



#56
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:26 AM

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Canadian

 

gem_asnow_ncus_11.png



#57
james1976

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:36 AM

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Icon looks furthest south. Def not buying that.

#58
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:50 AM

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Ukie south of the others.  Northern Iowa it would jack based on crap map


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#59
Hawkeye

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:57 AM

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Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_72.png   225.09KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#60
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:01 AM

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I'll be interested to see if the Euro drops further south like the UK.  The way this winter season has gone, storms have trended south many times and we've also seen significant shifts even after watches were posted.  I don't think it will get far enough south for me to worry about, but the UK hits my parents house pretty hard.  



#61
james1976

Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:19 AM

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1"+ qpf for me on Ukie

#62
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:33 AM

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Again the ukie is much different that other models as it relate to vort and energy. Differences are in qpf placement.

#63
Hawkeye

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:16 AM

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The 12z euro also shows a significant southward shift.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_66.png   149.1KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#64
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:17 AM

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Euro follows the UKIE with QPF placement.....

 

Hawkeye beat me to it



#65
james1976

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:21 AM

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Yeah pretty close. I wonder if GFS will start to jump onboard.

#66
Hawkeye

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:25 AM

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Nc into nw Iowa has been ground zero over the last month.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#67
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:26 AM

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Yeah pretty close. I wonder if GFS will start to jump onboard.

The differences arent large as we are still 48 hours out especially when one takes into account its a narrow snow band



#68
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:46 AM

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The EURO was south yeasterday at 12z then north at 0z and now back south



#69
Illinois_WX

Posted 16 April 2018 - 11:42 AM

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Models turning this into a pretty meh event for us in Eastern Nebraska. I'm over it, I'd rather not have a cold rain to spend my last week here anyways, even though it's not going to be warm by any standards. Hopefully we can get some sort of severe wx this week but I'm definitely not holding my breath.


'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~5" (as of 11/27/18) 

 

 

 

 

 


#70
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:27 PM

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NAM is a little more moist this go around and focused on the Hwy 20 corridor on north in Iowa.

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#71
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:55 PM

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DVN is not buying much in the way of snow accumulations.  Calling for an inch or less on grassy surfaces along Highway 20.  If this system were passing through at night, we'd probably talking a whole different story here, but except in the areas of heaviest precip rates, accumulations will likely be tough, at least in eastern Iowa.  Maybe a different story in other areas.  



#72
gosaints

Posted 16 April 2018 - 12:59 PM

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DVN is not buying much in the way of snow accumulations. Calling for an inch or less on grassy surfaces along Highway 20. If this system were passing through at night, we'd probably talking a whole different story here, but except in the areas of heaviest precip rates, accumulations will likely be tough, at least in eastern Iowa. Maybe a different story in other areas.


Possible result for sure...

#73
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:37 PM

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LaCrosse going with 4-7" for SE Minnesota and far NE Iowa.

 

The snowfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches still look possible
over all of southeast Minnesota into the first tier of counties
across northeast Iowa. Will expand the winter storm watch a little
and add in Wabasha, Winona, Houston and Winneshiek Counties.



#74
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:41 PM

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DMX actually shifted snow further north and weaker from this morning.  Must not be latching onto the Euro.

 

Tab2FileL.png?cfc423a24877fcb9df91276813



#75
bud2380

Posted 16 April 2018 - 01:49 PM

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Precip rates are extremely impressive on the GFS.  This is 3 hour qpf

 

 

qpf_003h.us_mw.png



#76
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 April 2018 - 02:17 PM

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EURO must be on some sort of drugs. It came even further south today giving me 3-4 inches. Not believing it


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#77
Money

Posted 16 April 2018 - 07:43 PM

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0z gfs came in way south

#78
Money

Posted 16 April 2018 - 07:48 PM

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Gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#79
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:21 PM

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Interesting, seems like its trending towards the euro. CMC came south too


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#80
hlcater

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:25 PM

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If it snows more than 1" one more time im gonna cry.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#81
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:34 PM

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If it snows more than 1" one more time im gonna cry.

Tears of happiness? 


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#82
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 April 2018 - 08:42 PM

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If it snows more than 1" one more time im gonna cry.

Send it here plz.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#83
Hawkeye

Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:02 PM

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00z UK a hair south.

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_60.png   222.05KB   1 downloads


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#84
james1976

Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:07 PM

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Trending toward a highway 20 special??? Id take another 6+. Go big or give me 70 degrees.
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#85
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:28 PM

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00z UK a hair south.

 

attachicon.gifukmet_acc_precip_conus_60.png

Trending towards an I-80 Omaha special baby!


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#86
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 April 2018 - 09:33 PM

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Send it here plz.

Yeah he's tired of snow..i wanna be tired of the snow! lol


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#87
Hawkeye

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:09 PM

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00z Euro a hair south with the heavy band, but also lifts the southern edge north.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_60.png   99.03KB   1 downloads


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#88
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 April 2018 - 10:17 PM

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00z Euro a hair south with the heavy band, but also lifts the southern edge north.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_60.png

Yeah that was interesting. Also, has quite a bit of CAPE here before we get hit with a few hours of heavy snow. On the order of 1200-1300. Likely to be a cluster of storms producing hail transitioning to thunder snow and accumulating here 2-4 inches in a  couple hours. How exciting!


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#89
VMB443

Posted 17 April 2018 - 02:02 AM

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Winter Weather Advisory posted by Milwaukee. 2-5 inches.

#90
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:13 AM

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Those are some intense bands pummeling parts of IA tomorrow morning...#thumpsnow

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_31.png

 

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_33.png



#91
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:13 AM

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Good luck S MN, IA and WI posters. After looking at the models I wasn’t expecting any snow to be in the forecast here. I’m surprised to see 1-3” in the point and the WWA extends up to the southern metro. We need 1.7” to officially hit 80” for the season. I’m done with snow but I’ll root for 1.7”.
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#92
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:18 AM

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Latest RPM run now keeps N IL in the game to see all snow from this event during the day tomorrow.  It'll be tough to accumulate on the roads/sidewalks, but nonetheless, another measurable snow is in the works for Chicago.  Some spots may get 2-3" out of this.


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#93
Madtown

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:44 AM

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Nalmy 26 this am. Looka like middle of winter out there. 4-7 more...what the hell y not i guess.....

#94
james1976

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:45 AM

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Im on the southern edge of the winter storm warning. 6-8" and it will be daytime. Too bad ill be at work. Would be nice to be home as its prolly last snow of the season. I might be pushing 60" on the season after this. What a comeback😮
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#95
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:47 AM

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Im on the southern edge of the winter storm warning. 6-8" and it will be daytime. Too bad ill be at work. Would be nice to be home as its prolly last snow of the season. I might be pushing 60" on the season after this. What a comeback

Wow, 60"!  Those big storms in March really helped your seasonal stats.  Ya, this season has been one hellova back-loaded winter.  Looking forward to a front-loaded winter next year... ;) !



#96
james1976

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:53 AM

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Wow, 60"! Those big storms in March really helped your seasonal stats. Ya, this season has been one hellova back-loaded winter. Looking forward to a front-loaded winter next year... ;) !

Yeah that footer i had when i was gone was a big help and then 7.8" from the next storm. If my books are correct im near 53" right now.
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#97
james1976

Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:55 AM

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Thundersnow??? I like this from DMX:
This storm has a lot
going for it...possible convection along with strong forcing.

#98
Madtown

Posted 17 April 2018 - 05:15 AM

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On a brighter note snow is great nitrogen for thawd lawns!
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#99
Tony

Posted 17 April 2018 - 05:26 AM

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Latest RPM run now keeps N IL in the game to see all snow from this event during the day tomorrow.  It'll be tough to accumulate on the roads/sidewalks, but nonetheless, another measurable snow is in the works for Chicago.  Some spots may get 2-3" out of this.

Keep in in Cook County please up towards your neck of the woods.



#100
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 05:51 AM

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thinking pavement accumulations will be limited except where the heaviest band set up.  SHould accumulate where there is snow on the ground.