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April 18th-19th Snowstorm

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#101
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 05:58 AM

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I think the IOWA peeps should like the next few panels of the NAM.  SHould be interesting.  A little south 



#102
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:00 AM

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12z NAM coming in colder/snowier for DSM area....1-2"/hr snowfall rates



#103
Madtown

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:02 AM

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Hows it looking over this way?

#104
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:05 AM

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It's pretty incredible how often storms have trended south at the last minute this year.  


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#105
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:21 AM

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people to the south are gonna have the most fun.  short duration but great rates



#106
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:22 AM

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High rez 12z NAM pounds DSM with possible Thundersnow for the morning commute...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_23.png

 

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_24.png



#107
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:23 AM

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Both 12z NAM's have a good hit for C IA peeps...

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_38.png

 

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_13.png



#108
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:26 AM

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Hows it looking over this way?

2-5" still looks good...



#109
Hawkeye

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:30 AM

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Sitting on the edge, here.  We may end up with a bunch of mixed crap during the intense burst, with heavy snow just north.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#110
james1976

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:34 AM

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Dang thats way south

#111
NEJeremy

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:48 AM

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Yeah that was interesting. Also, has quite a bit of CAPE here before we get hit with a few hours of heavy snow. On the order of 1200-1300. Likely to be a cluster of storms producing hail transitioning to thunder snow and accumulating here 2-4 inches in a  couple hours. How exciting!

I want what you're smoking


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#112
Illinois_WX

Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:53 AM

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I want what you're smoking

 

I believe in miracles, but I don't bank on them. I highly doubt we get any snow, but i'll take some thunderstorms I suppose :) 


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#113
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:13 AM

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ICON looks like it dipped south as well, but once you get to about highway 30 the precip is either mostly rain or a mix.

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_16.png



#114
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:18 AM

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RGEM loves James....

 

La Crosse is gonna have to adjust headlines me thinks



#115
Tony

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:19 AM

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For IA peeps this is looking pretty good for you guys. Abundant moisture with elevated cape/instability could lead to at least 1"+ per hour rates for several hours. Not sure how far east this will translate but a pretty compact/powerful storm nonetheless. Could see some hefty amounts west of here.


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#116
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:22 AM

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RGEM

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#117
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:34 AM

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GFS hits the north half of Iowa the hardest.  



#118
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:35 AM

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James crusher



#119
Tom

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:36 AM

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South trend it is...12z GFS nails IA

#120
Hawkeye

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:39 AM

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Yep, the inching south continues on all models.  I'd feel pretty good about snow if I live in Waterloo.  Cedar Rapids is still a mystery.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#121
Cfweather

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:43 AM

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Yep, the inching south continues on all models.  I'd feel pretty good about snow if I live in Waterloo.  Cedar Rapids is still a mystery.

 

I'd feel good about it if I still WANTED snow in mid April.  I'd really prefer a couple 70 degree days at this point.  But thanks anyway!



#122
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:49 AM

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Well, i just hope this holds off until I make it into work tomorrow, but I have a feeling I'll be driving when the heavy stuff starts here.  It's possible they shift the WWA advisory a row south, but I'm guessing they'll leave it where it's at and upgrade the watch to a warning along Hwy 20.  



#123
Hawkeye

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:49 AM

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I'd feel good about it if I still WANTED snow in mid April.  I'd really prefer a couple 70 degree days at this point.  But thanks anyway!

 

I really want a week of 70s as well.  However, it appears this will be the final winter storm, so we may as well get a nice burst of snow out of it.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#124
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:58 AM

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I really want a week of 70s as well.  However, it appears this will be the final winter storm, so we may as well get a nice burst of snow out of it.

 

Looks like you're going to break 40".  I didn't realize it had gotten that high.  I wish Cedar Rapids still kept official snowfall records.  



#125
Madtown

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:00 AM

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Looks like 4 to 6 over this way on the new gfs

#126
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:00 AM

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RAP seems to be even further south

 

qpf_acc.conus.png



#127
WBadgersW

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:15 AM

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Really thought this would be a 2-3" event. 2-5" is looking more and more likely.

#128
james1976

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Yeah i like where im at. Lets make it a biggie if its the last snow of the year. And lets throw in some thundersnow while we are at it.

#129
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:34 AM

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Welp. Looks like we're gonna get a couple of inches. Might as well root it to overperfom. Luckily, these bigly eastern troughs finally stop amplifying over the NE and appear more progressive than they have been lately. HOPEFULLY, hopefully this is the last snow of the season, and I feel confident that it is. Until we get a tease on like June 15th.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#130
Tony

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:39 AM

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Yeah i like where im at. Lets make it a biggie if its the last snow of the year. And lets throw in some thundersnow while we are at it.

Ask and you shall receive!

Attached Files


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#131
NEJeremy

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:42 AM

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RAP seems to be even further south

 

qpf_acc.conus.png

Don't show Craig!! :P  :P



#132
Tony

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:50 AM

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Just looked at some of the Nam models and there could be some lake enhanced moisture thrown in on this side of the lake. Not sure if that will aid or hurt but the signal is out there.



#133
Hawkeye

Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:54 AM

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12z UK... a hair south again, but also a little weaker.  The brighter colors have been dropped.

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_48.png   213.08KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#134
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 09:24 AM

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I am interested to see how the southern areas do accumulations wise.  Is there snow on the ground currently  in central Iowa?



#135
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 09:33 AM

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The HRRR isnt sure what will come out of the sky



#136
james1976

Posted 17 April 2018 - 09:53 AM

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Gonna end up being DSM crush job yet

#137
Hawkeye

Posted 17 April 2018 - 10:08 AM

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12z euro, still sagging south, especially with the heavy band.  Des Moines to Cedar Rapids still wobbling on the fence.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_42.png   128.13KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#138
james1976

Posted 17 April 2018 - 10:23 AM

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Euro bullseye for me
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#139
Madtown

Posted 17 April 2018 - 10:52 AM

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I'll take mr euro

#140
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:01 PM

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Winter Storm Warning issued for Linn County.



#141
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:09 PM

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Winter Weather Advisory for Johnson County.



#142
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:14 PM

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18z NAM shifting back north.  



#143
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:15 PM

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From DVN.

 

 

The sensible weather Wednesday will be quite interesting. The
potential is there for thundersleet, thundersnow, and potentially
thunder freezing rain.


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#144
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:23 PM

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18z Nam smoking again

#145
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:36 PM

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the 3K NAM just hugs the Iowa/MN border with the northern extent of the heavy snow.  



#146
gosaints

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:41 PM

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the 3K NAM just hugs the Iowa/MN border with the northern extent of the heavy snow.


Ya heavier in northern Iowa than the last run...

#147
jaster220

Posted 17 April 2018 - 12:49 PM

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Both 12z NAM's have a good hit for C IA peeps...

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_38.png

 

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_13.png

 

LOL. What's with the SMI wall??? Not that I need more snow at this point, but  :rolleyes:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#148
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 17 April 2018 - 01:18 PM

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Winter Storm Warning extended southward.

 

 

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Benton and Linn Counties.
 

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#149
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 01:33 PM

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from DMX

 

 

With any of this
precipitation late tonight into early tomorrow morning, thunder
will be possible with steep mid-level lapse rates supporting
elevated instability. In addition, soundings still show
instability in the low-levels tomorrow afternoon pointing to the
potential of horizontal convective rolls that may enhance snow
rates at times. When the event wraps up Wednesday afternoon or
evening, will see an area of 6-8 inches over northern Iowa, though
wouldn`t be surprised that a few places overachieve toward 12
inches due to the convective, dynamic nature of this event. Closer
to Highway 30 and I-80, still not out of the question for higher
snow amounts if this system continues to track south.



#150
bud2380

Posted 17 April 2018 - 01:36 PM

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18z GFS shows 3.5" of snow in Cedar Rapids from 7am to 10am.