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Late April 2018 Heatwave Contest


Jesse

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30mins late, hope that doesn’t disqualify me.

 

SEA:

 

76/48

74/51

80/54

64/54

58/49

 

PDX:

 

81/51

85/53

86/55

59/54

58/53

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30mins late, hope that doesn’t disqualify me.

 

SEA:

 

76/48

74/51

80/54

64/54

58/49

 

PDX:

 

81/51

85/53

86/55

59/54

58/53

Nah, you’re good. Few enough people participated that it wouldn’t make sense to disqualify anyone. :P

 

Snowsquall may be getting sued by Jim Cantore, though.

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Frontal snow squall possibly writes the forecast for the weather channel.

What’s with the drop off tomorrow?

Both the ECMWF and GFS have a slightly deeper boundary layer tomorrow over SEA, for whatever reason.

 

I don’t understand PNW climo well at all, but I factored it in somewhat.

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Both the ECMWF and GFS have a slightly deeper boundary layer tomorrow over SEA, for whatever reason.

 

I don’t understand PNW climo well at all, but I factored it in somewhat.

Probably the weak shortwave brushing us to the north and east.

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Probably the weak shortwave brushing us to the north and east.

Ah. Your climate is a b*tch to figure out. I would think that with the Pacific Ocean upstream, that a shortwave graze would increase mid-level moisture draw, but that’s not what last night’s soundings showed, despite the lower sfc temps.

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Both the ECMWF and GFS have a slightly deeper boundary layer tomorrow over SEA, for whatever reason.

 

I don’t understand PNW climo well at all, but I factored it in somewhat.

Hmm. Maybe it’s a Puget Sound thing. I’d be surprised if tomorrow isn’t as warm or warmer than today up this way.
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Looks like 77/49 at SEA and 80/53 at PDX today unless rounding ups the highs a degree. Right now the unofficial standings after day 1:

 

Phil: -5

FrontalSnowsquall:-6

Jesse: -12

I biffed it on the low. Should have trusted my phone.

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I biffed it on the low. Should have trusted my phone.

Those east winds never really died down. Deep/dry mixing layer was later revealed on the soundings.

 

FrontalSnowSquall’s phone is a genius.

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Hmm. Maybe it’s a Puget Sound thing. I’d be surprised if tomorrow isn’t as warm or warmer than today up this way.

I have no clue why..maybe it’s just wrong. Most models still have it cooler at the surface in Seattle tomorrow, but hotter in Portland. For whatever reason.

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I biffed it on the low. Should have trusted my phone.

Those east winds never really died down. Deep/dry mixing layer was later revealed on the soundings.

 

FrontalSnowSquall’s phone is a genius.

TWC is my all time favorite weather app. I love all the different weather features it has. Other the years I've found their forecast to be the most accurate especially if you're not familiar with a specific location. For PDX though, I put a little more weight on the KPTV forecast, especially if it's Mark's. All the other stations forecast aren't as accurate IMHO.

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TWC is my all time favorite weather app. I love all the different weather features it has. Other the years I've found their forecast to be the most accurate especially if you're not familiar with a specific location. For PDX though, I put a little more weight on the KPTV forecast, especially if it's Mark's. All the other stations forecast aren't as accurate IMHO.

Yeah, but the point of a forecast contest is making your own forecast. If those numbers end up the closest TWC wins, not you. ;)

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SEA is up to 75 and will probably rise another degree or two.

 

I am rooting for them to get warmer today so they are closer to my forecast of 77 and farther from 71. :)

Looks like the high was 75. So that weird mini-cooldown on the models was for real.

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Now you guys know my secret to winning so many of these contests...

Maybe I’m missing the joke, but can’t recall you ever winning a forecast contest.

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