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Late April 2018 Heatwave Contest

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#1
Jesse

Posted 23 April 2018 - 02:25 PM

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Highs and lows. PDX and/or SEA. Tomorrow through Saturday.

 

Entries due tonight at midnight. Or whenever.



#2
Jesse

Posted 23 April 2018 - 02:27 PM

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SEA:

 

4/24 - 75/47

4/25 - 77/52

4/26 - 80/52

4/27 - 65/50

4/28 - 56/47

 

 

PDX:

 

4/24 - 83/48

4/25 - 85/51

4/26 - 79/53

4/27 - 62/50

4/28 - 58/47



#3
Phil

Posted 23 April 2018 - 03:12 PM

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I’m in. Will mull over the data, meditate, and brb.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#4
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 23 April 2018 - 08:10 PM

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I'll have my submission before midnight.
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#5
Phil

Posted 23 April 2018 - 08:13 PM

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Must__not__let__frontal__snowsquall__win.

Waiting for the ECMWF to come in before throwing down.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#6
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 23 April 2018 - 10:35 PM

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SEA:

4/24 - 75/50
4/25 - 71/50
4/26 - 80/51
4/27 - 61/49
4/28 - 53/47

PDX:

4/24 - 83/53
4/25 - 86/56
4/26 - 85/54
4/27 - 60/50
4/28 - 57/47

#7
Jesse

Posted 23 April 2018 - 10:42 PM

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Attached File  A417204A-9BFF-4706-99BA-2C94E6D50679.png   285.27KB   0 downloads

🤔

#8
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 23 April 2018 - 10:49 PM

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A417204A-9BFF-4706-99BA-2C94E6D50679.png

🤔


TWC FTW! Saturday we don't have the same high temperature.

#9
Phil

Posted 23 April 2018 - 11:28 PM

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30mins late, hope that doesn’t disqualify me.

SEA:

76/48
74/51
80/54
64/54
58/49

PDX:

81/51
85/53
86/55
59/54
58/53
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#10
ShawniganLake

Posted 24 April 2018 - 08:33 AM

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A417204A-9BFF-4706-99BA-2C94E6D50679.png

🤔

Frontal snow squall possibly writes the forecast for the weather channel.
What’s with the drop off tomorrow?

#11
Jesse

Posted 24 April 2018 - 10:41 AM

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30mins late, hope that doesn’t disqualify me.

SEA:

76/48
74/51
80/54
64/54
58/49

PDX:

81/51
85/53
86/55
59/54
58/53


Nah, you’re good. Few enough people participated that it wouldn’t make sense to disqualify anyone. :P

Snowsquall may be getting sued by Jim Cantore, though.
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#12
Jesse

Posted 24 April 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Frontal snow squall possibly writes the forecast for the weather channel.
What’s with the drop off tomorrow?


A frontal soundsquall.

#13
Phil

Posted 24 April 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Frontal snow squall possibly writes the forecast for the weather channel.
What’s with the drop off tomorrow?


Both the ECMWF and GFS have a slightly deeper boundary layer tomorrow over SEA, for whatever reason.

I don’t understand PNW climo well at all, but I factored it in somewhat.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#14
Jesse

Posted 24 April 2018 - 11:05 AM

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Both the ECMWF and GFS have a slightly deeper boundary layer tomorrow over SEA, for whatever reason.

I don’t understand PNW climo well at all, but I factored it in somewhat.


Probably the weak shortwave brushing us to the north and east.
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#15
Phil

Posted 24 April 2018 - 11:27 AM

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Probably the weak shortwave brushing us to the north and east.


Ah. Your climate is a b*tch to figure out. I would think that with the Pacific Ocean upstream, that a shortwave graze would increase mid-level moisture draw, but that’s not what last night’s soundings showed, despite the lower sfc temps.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#16
ShawniganLake

Posted 24 April 2018 - 12:33 PM

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Both the ECMWF and GFS have a slightly deeper boundary layer tomorrow over SEA, for whatever reason.

I don’t understand PNW climo well at all, but I factored it in somewhat.

Hmm. Maybe it’s a Puget Sound thing. I’d be surprised if tomorrow isn’t as warm or warmer than today up this way.

#17
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 24 April 2018 - 04:02 PM

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Why the slightly cooler day on Wednesday before the big crash on Friday? Dirty ridge?

#18
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 24 April 2018 - 06:19 PM

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Looks like 77/49 at SEA and 80/53 at PDX today unless rounding ups the highs a degree. Right now the unofficial standings after day 1:

Phil: -5
FrontalSnowsquall:-6
Jesse: -12

#19
Jesse

Posted 24 April 2018 - 06:41 PM

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Looks like 77/49 at SEA and 80/53 at PDX today unless rounding ups the highs a degree. Right now the unofficial standings after day 1:

Phil: -5
FrontalSnowsquall:-6
Jesse: -12


I biffed it on the low. Should have trusted my phone.

#20
Phil

Posted 24 April 2018 - 08:12 PM

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I biffed it on the low. Should have trusted my phone.


Those east winds never really died down. Deep/dry mixing layer was later revealed on the soundings.

FrontalSnowSquall’s phone is a genius.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#21
Phil

Posted 24 April 2018 - 08:17 PM

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Hmm. Maybe it’s a Puget Sound thing. I’d be surprised if tomorrow isn’t as warm or warmer than today up this way.


I have no clue why..maybe it’s just wrong. Most models still have it cooler at the surface in Seattle tomorrow, but hotter in Portland. For whatever reason.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#22
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 24 April 2018 - 09:25 PM

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I biffed it on the low. Should have trusted my phone.

Those east winds never really died down. Deep/dry mixing layer was later revealed on the soundings.

FrontalSnowSquall’s phone is a genius.


TWC is my all time favorite weather app. I love all the different weather features it has. Other the years I've found their forecast to be the most accurate especially if you're not familiar with a specific location. For PDX though, I put a little more weight on the KPTV forecast, especially if it's Mark's. All the other stations forecast aren't as accurate IMHO.

#23
Jesse

Posted 24 April 2018 - 09:29 PM

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TWC is my all time favorite weather app. I love all the different weather features it has. Other the years I've found their forecast to be the most accurate especially if you're not familiar with a specific location. For PDX though, I put a little more weight on the KPTV forecast, especially if it's Mark's. All the other stations forecast aren't as accurate IMHO.


Yeah, but the point of a forecast contest is making your own forecast. If those numbers end up the closest TWC wins, not you. ;)

#24
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 24 April 2018 - 09:38 PM

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Yeah, but the point of a forecast contest is making your own forecast. If those numbers end up the closest TWC wins, not you. ;)


Ok fair point. I wasn't going to make a forecast for SEA but at the last minute changed my mind and was sleepy.
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#25
Front Ranger

Posted 24 April 2018 - 09:57 PM

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Now you guys know my secret to winning so many of these contests...

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#26
Jesse

Posted 25 April 2018 - 03:34 PM

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SEA is up to 75 and will probably rise another degree or two.

 

I am rooting for them to get warmer today so they are closer to my forecast of 77 and farther from 71. :)



#27
Phil

Posted 25 April 2018 - 05:14 PM

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SEA is up to 75 and will probably rise another degree or two.

I am rooting for them to get warmer today so they are closer to my forecast of 77 and farther from 71. :)


Looks like the high was 75. So that weird mini-cooldown on the models was for real.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#28
Jesse

Posted 25 April 2018 - 05:50 PM

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Looks like the high was 75. So that weird mini-cooldown on the models was for real.


Yeah, although Cantore oversold it by a few degrees.

#29
Jesse

Posted 25 April 2018 - 05:53 PM

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Unofficial numbers for today so far:

84/52 at PDX

75/51 at SEA

#30
Jesse

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:25 PM

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Unofficial numbers for today so far:

84/52 at PDX

75/51 at SEA

 

These numbers are now official, which would put the day 2 standings at:

 

Phil: -8

Jesse: -17

Frontalsnowsquall: -17



#31
Jesse

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:32 PM

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Tomorrow could be rough for me if that marine push comes in too late.



#32
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:45 PM

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These numbers are now official, which would put the day 2 standings at:

Phil: -8
Jesse: -17
Frontalsnowsquall: -17


Phil is blowing us out of the water!

#33
Jesse

Posted 26 April 2018 - 05:11 PM

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I screwed up bad today. Just 25 miles shy of a high in the 70s.

At least there were no 90s!

#34
Deweydog

Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:13 PM

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I screwed up bad today. Just 25 miles shy of a high in the 70s.

At least there were no 90s!


The atmosphere screwed up, not you!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#35
Phil

Posted 26 April 2018 - 08:26 PM

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Based on today’s preliminary numbers:

Jesse - 28

FrontalSquall - 22

Phil - 15
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#36
Jesse

Posted 26 April 2018 - 08:50 PM

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I suck. :lol:



#37
Phil

Posted 26 April 2018 - 09:09 PM

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I suck. :lol:


Ain’t over till it’s over. Mathematically speaking, you could still win. 🤓

FWIW, I have a feeling I’m gonna take a heavy hit on one of these marine days.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#38
Phil

Posted 27 April 2018 - 11:37 AM

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We’re all taking a beating today. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#39
Front Ranger

Posted 27 April 2018 - 12:38 PM

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TWC FTW!

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#40
Phil

Posted 27 April 2018 - 12:44 PM

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Now you guys know my secret to winning so many of these contests...


Maybe I’m missing the joke, but can’t recall you ever winning a forecast contest.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#41
Front Ranger

Posted 27 April 2018 - 12:51 PM

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Maybe I’m missing the joke, but can’t recall you ever winning a forecast contest.


It's common to block traumatic events from our memories.
  • Phil likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#42
Phil

Posted 27 April 2018 - 01:05 PM

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It's common to block traumatic events from our memories.


Well played, but I don’t share your worldview. It doesn’t bother me when you make a good forecast. ;)

I did scroll through the forecast contests since 2016, and you’re winless over that period. Cognitive dissonance?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#43
Front Ranger

Posted 27 April 2018 - 01:19 PM

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Well played, but I don’t share your worldview. It doesn’t bother me when you make a good forecast. ;)

I did scroll through the forecast contests since 2016, and you’re winless over that period. Cognitive dissonance?


:lol:

You try hard for not being bothered.

It was just a joke. I have won before, but I don't really keep track. And most these contests never end up graded anyway.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#44
Phil

Posted 27 April 2018 - 01:26 PM

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:lol:

You try hard for not being bothered.

It was just a joke. I have won before, but I don't really keep track. And most these contests never end up graded anyway.


What can I say, I have an insatiable curiosity for information. Heck, I play myself in chess. :lol:

That doesn’t mean it bothers me when you make a good forecast. I honestly don’t even think about it unless you’re trying to Flatiron one of my past forecasts..in which case there’s more than enough material available for a retaliatory strike. Lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#45
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 27 April 2018 - 06:15 PM

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Unofficial standings after day 4.

Phil -28
Frontal Snowsquall -30
Jesse -41

One more day to go! This is the one time I'm going to root for cold anomalies.

#46
Jesse

Posted 27 April 2018 - 09:56 PM

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We’re all doing great! :lol:
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#47
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 April 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Unofficial standings after the morning lows of 47 at SEA and 49 at PDX .

Frontal Snowsquall -32
Phil -34
Jesse -43

It will all come down to the highs today!

#48
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 11:05 AM

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Noooooo.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#49
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 April 2018 - 11:07 AM

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Noooooo.


Looks like you will win. PDX already up to 57. SEA at 51 but I can't afford it to go much higher.

#50
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 11:28 AM

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Looks like you will win. PDX already up to 57. SEA at 51 but I can't afford it to go much higher.


SEA needs to hit 56 for me to tie, 57 for me to win. That will be tough w/ the clouds.

If you had DC sun power, maybe. Lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

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