Love it when supercells deliver the bucks $$$..
Focus shifts to the developing severe threat Tuesday afternoon and
night as the front moves to a position just north of I80 by early
evening. Atmosphere may be largely capped until about 21z, with
significant thunderstorm development likely along the I80
corridor. Surface dewpoints could be in the lower 60s by then,
with 0-6km bulk shear values increasing to around 50 knots.
Surface-based CAPE of up to 2500 J/kg, combined with strong
convergence along the surface front should lead to supercells in
southeast NE, expanding in coverage through the evening. Surface
winds will be slightly backed, enhancing helicity, with veering
winds aloft, Soundings suggest critical angles of low level shear
and storm relative winds will be nearly perpendicular, resulting
in a high likelihood of tornadic supercells initially. GFS even
indicates there could be a magic triple point initiation perhaps
west or southwest of Lincoln. Storms should expand in coverage
northwest along the frontal boundary which becomes nearly
stationary through the evening. SPC has maintained areas
along/south of Interstate 80 in an enhanced risk for severe storms
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a 10% probability of tornadoes,
which could be significant (EFT or greater). Locally heavy rain
will be possible with storms Tuesday as well, with WPC continuing
to highlight a slight risk of excessive rainfall. However, the
area also remains quite dry, ranging 2-3" below normal over the
previous 30 days, so the rain will also be beneficial and needed.
The severe threat diminishes after midnight south of I80, with
heavy rain the predominant threat by then.
..anyhoo, good luck out there and stay safe y'all
Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3" Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0
Annual avg for mby = 49.9" Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)
2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."