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May 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 25 April 2018 - 04:17 AM

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Who's ready to flip the calendar into May?  After what has been truly a historic April in terms of snow & cold weather for much of the nation, I'm sure everyone on here has had enough of Ol' Man Winter.  It's time we focus on gardening, outdoor activities, and last but not least.....shall I say...Severe Wx????.  Is mother nature going to provide us with a phenomenal open to the month?   Yes...a nice reprieve is on the horizon and this should kick start planting season across our ag belt.

 

Let's discuss....

 

The Euro Weeklies have been quite dry in recent runs but is now trending towards a wetter pattern Week 2-3 which fits the LRC quite well.  I wasn't really buying into the dry look it has been advertising of late.  There should be several chances of severe weather mid and late month across our sub.  As the long term long wave trough cycles through during the middle of the month, I'm expecting to see several frontal systems which will lead us into a increased likelihood of severe weather.

 

DbjvMM7WkAAcOCg.jpg

 

 

Meantime, most models are advertising the 1st 80F day of the year for a lot of us in the Plains/MW region....this is going to feel fantastic.

 

gem_T2m_ncus_28.png

 

 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_28.png


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#2
Tom

Posted 25 April 2018 - 04:39 AM

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The overnight 00z EPS showing seasonal temps but cooler near the GL's region...not to bad since avg temps will be in the middle/upper 60's by then.

 

DboPqODU0AAzdV1.jpg


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#3
BrianJK

Posted 25 April 2018 - 05:58 AM

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After what has been basically a long dragged out non-existent winter around these parts (sans the one week in February), I’m ready for the sustained warmth. Chicago’s last subfreezing high was back on Feb 12th which is more than a month earlier than normal. Think it’s safe to say that will hold, as the extended looks to flip to a more spring/summer like pattern (finally).
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#4
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:02 AM

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We already hit 80 one day in March, so that has already been achieved. I can't wait to set some record lows this Summer!


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#5
Tom

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:11 AM

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Big time potential for big boomers as we open up the Marry month of May...

 

Dbollx8V4AAQJ0U.jpg



#6
hlcater

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:15 AM

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Big time potential for big boomers as we open up the Marry month of May...

Dbollx8V4AAQJ0U.jpg


What goes into that index and where do you get it? Looks interesting. Pretty sure it’s some creation of Michael Ventrice.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#7
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:27 AM

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Only severe weather day I can see is next Tuesday. Monday looks intriguing to our West but the capping is too much here. Tuesday has borderline CAPE and weak lower level shear but good upper level shear. I'm thinking it will be an isolated threat and the main issue will be large hail and straight line winds. Helicity looks just simply too low for an appreciable tornado threat. This is all per GFS.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#8
Tom

Posted 25 April 2018 - 06:47 AM

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What goes into that index and where do you get it? Looks interesting. Pretty sure it’s some creation of Michael Ventrice.

Yes, Michael Ventrice from WSI...unsure what parameters he incorporates into his models but they are usually darn good in the medium range.


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#9
CentralNebWeather

Posted 25 April 2018 - 09:09 AM

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My gauge had right at 1 inch yesterday.  Some areas got much less than that so I feel blessed that we got that much.  Beautiful today, and as I look out of my classroom window there are dandelions sprouting outside.  NWS Hastings talking severe weather next week and chances of 80 degree weather.


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#10
Tom

Posted 26 April 2018 - 03:22 AM

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An active pattern sets up mid/late next week as several waves of precip are being suggested across the ag belt.  After a cold weekend, the much anticipated warm up Mon-Wed provides the fuel to fire up some storms as a typical Spring-like pattern sets up as a frontal boundary draped across the sub froum ushers in several chances of precip next week allowing for a good soaking.

 

 

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_34.png

 

 

 

DbtFR_VW0AEYY5u.jpg



#11
Tom

Posted 26 April 2018 - 03:52 AM

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Big changes across North America being predicted per the CFSv2 for this month.  Since the 16th of this month, the advertised ridge across Hudson Bay is being replaced steadily by a trough.  Interestingly, temp trends are comparatively similar, although, I'd be weary about them to trend cooler if that vortex-like feature stays put.  It would likely suggest plenty of frontal systems to rotate down into the U.S bringing bountiful precip chances and not the dry look.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20180416.201805.gif

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180416.201805.gif

 

 

recent run...

 

CFSv2.z700.20180426.201805.gif

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180426.201805.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20180426.201805.gif



#12
Tom

Posted 26 April 2018 - 03:56 AM

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JMA Weeklies agree with Week 2 cooling and suggesting a very transient weather pattern overall this month.  Typical yo-yo temp pattern and a "step ladder" climb into Summer.  Weeks 3-4 pretty normal overall and not showing any distinct signs of a torch or cold pattern locked in.



#13
Tom

Posted 26 April 2018 - 05:10 AM

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@ Okwx, your severe wx threat is looking ideal for early next week...

 

Dbtf5VUW0AAAiPJ.jpg


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#14
jaster220

Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:03 AM

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@ Okwx, your severe wx threat is looking ideal for early next week...

 

Dbtf5VUW0AAAiPJ.jpg

 

Not sure he cares for severe in his region. I know he posted how it's often not warned adequately and a difficult region for visibility (the jungle iirc). Add in the real potential for night time events and I can see why. My time in TX was spooky enough, and it was a quiet severe season by their stds. A few years later they got that nasty outbreak of night-time EF4 and EF5's right in the area SW of Ft. Worth where I hung out. I would've been freaked living in a 2nd floor apt with no shelter. I'm used to MI where I have a basement (could be wet, but hey, it's underground!) to take cover in if anything strong is coming my way. Down there, peeps live in freakin mobile homes out in the countryside. #suicide!  :blink:


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#15
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:38 PM

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Not sure he cares for severe in his region. I know he posted how it's often not warned adequately and a difficult region for visibility (the jungle iirc). Add in the real potential for night time events and I can see why. My time in TX was spooky enough, and it was a quiet severe season by their stds. A few years later they got that nasty outbreak of night-time EF4 and EF5's right in the area SW of Ft. Worth where I hung out. I would've been freaked living in a 2nd floor apt with no shelter. I'm used to MI where I have a basement (could be wet, but hey, it's underground!) to take cover in if anything strong is coming my way. Down there, peeps live in freakin mobile homes out in the countryside. #suicide! :blink:


Yeah I live in a second floor apartment with no shelter. It's built up to EF2 standards as long as I'm on the lowest floor in the hallway, but I've pretty much accepted that if a strong wedge comes here I'm a goner.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#16
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 April 2018 - 10:50 PM

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@ Okwx, your severe wx threat is looking ideal for early next week...

Dbtf5VUW0AAAiPJ.jpg


You know, after the boring weather I've had the past few weeks, a little severe weather may liven things up a bit around here. Zero tornadoes for April is an incredible statistic for my state. May not ever see it again in my lifetime. May as well have an explosive May.
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#17
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 April 2018 - 11:00 PM

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Not sure he cares for severe in his region. I know he posted how it's often not warned adequately and a difficult region for visibility (the jungle iirc). Add in the real potential for night time events and I can see why. My time in TX was spooky enough, and it was a quiet severe season by their stds. A few years later they got that nasty outbreak of night-time EF4 and EF5's right in the area SW of Ft. Worth where I hung out. I would've been freaked living in a 2nd floor apt with no shelter. I'm used to MI where I have a basement (could be wet, but hey, it's underground!) to take cover in if anything strong is coming my way. Down there, peeps live in freakin mobile homes out in the countryside. #suicide! :blink:


You're right. Those are the legit reasons I'm not fond of tornadic weather. I think if I lived out west of OKC it wouldn't bother me so badly. Around here, unless you know how to read a rotation radar, you have less than 1/4 mile visibility (if lucky enough to have daylight) and plenty of projectiles in the form of trees. Some folks here still don't know the difference between a watch and a warning. Once past Tulsa, our newscasters don't seem to care much. I keep my family and friends attentive but you can only do so much.
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#18
Tom

Posted 27 April 2018 - 03:34 AM

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@IllinoisWx, looks like prime time weather next week all the way up to the lakeshore amid strong SSW Flow.  Thanks for bringing some Nebraska warmth...next week will feel, smell and look like Spring!

 

 

DbxzX0EUwAAW69a.jpg


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#19
Snowshoe

Posted 27 April 2018 - 04:24 AM

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Funny how quickly the low 50's seem cold!  :lol:

 

It is 10o below average but compared to 30's it should feel warm.


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#20
Tom

Posted 27 April 2018 - 04:28 AM

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Funny how quickly the low 50's seem cold!  :lol:

 

It is 10o below average but compared to 30's it should feel warm.

Yes, same here my man, and Saturday's expected blustery day in the upper 40's will certainly bring a chill to the air.  This will set the stage for quite the anticipated rebound in temps heading into the work week.



#21
jaster220

Posted 27 April 2018 - 08:11 AM

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Funny how quickly the low 50's seem cold!  :lol:

 

It is 10o below average but compared to 30's it should feel warm.

 

Yes, same here my man, and Saturday's expected blustery day in the upper 40's will certainly bring a chill to the air.  This will set the stage for quite the anticipated rebound in temps heading into the work week.

 

You two  :huh:   Car thermo had 39F when I rolled into St Joe this morning. What's this about feeling cold? Couple days ago it was 42F under bright sunshine with a stiff wind coming right off the water. Sadly, I'm still waiting to experience the lack of chill 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#22
jaster220

Posted 27 April 2018 - 08:12 AM

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@IllinoisWx, looks like prime time weather next week all the way up to the lakeshore amid strong SSW Flow.  Thanks for bringing some Nebraska warmth...next week will feel, smell and look like Spring!

 

 

DbxzX0EUwAAW69a.jpg

 

I'll be in town next Fri-Sat. Please tell me that warmth spills over for at least two more days.  ;)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#23
Snowshoe

Posted 27 April 2018 - 08:41 AM

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You two  :huh:   Car thermo had 39F when I rolled into St Joe this morning. What's this about feeling cold? Couple days ago it was 42F under bright sunshine with a stiff wind coming right off the water. Sadly, I'm still waiting to experience the lack of chill 

 

Used to live in Kenosha and there was nothing worse than an east wind off the lake. I miss the big lake but glad I moved inland.


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Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#24
jaster220

Posted 27 April 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Used to live in Kenosha and there was nothing worse than an east wind off the lake. I miss the big lake but glad I moved inland.

 

..here ya go!  :D

 

Attached File  20180427 KBEH Obs.PNG   82.01KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#25
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 April 2018 - 10:44 AM

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@Tom, I didn't comment on your post up there, but if those long-range models hold, it would likely give me the coolest summer in many years. At least a decade or more. Being very careful not to count my chickens yet though. That ridge could still pop right in the center of the US if things go wrong.
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#26
Tom

Posted 27 April 2018 - 10:56 AM

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@Tom, I didn't comment on your post up there, but if those long-range models hold, it would likely give me the coolest summer in many years. At least a decade or more. Being very careful not to count my chickens yet though. That ridge could still pop right in the center of the US if things go wrong.


Cautiously optimistic that there won’t be a blow torch Summer. I still think it warms up quick down by you and possibly into the central Plains as Summer kicks off but then we transition out of the heat into more cool shots mid summer into August. Should be a great summer for a lot of us on here. Just hope it doesn’t get to wet around here.

#27
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 April 2018 - 01:45 PM

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Cautiously optimistic that there won’t be a blow torch Summer. I still think it warms up quick down by you and possibly into the central Plains as Summer kicks off but then we transition out of the heat into more cool shots mid summer into August. Should be a great summer for a lot of us on here. Just hope it doesn’t get to wet around here.


May very well be a situation where we both end up getting it right. Not necessarily splitting hairs, really. May pop the ridge early and retrograde it back over the SW and then into the far west/east PAC as the season progresses.

#28
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 April 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Well, I don't think the upcoming round of severe weather will make it into Arkansas before dropping tornadoes this round. Dr Forbes seems to be pretty concerned about it anyway.
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#29
CentralNebWeather

Posted 29 April 2018 - 01:47 PM

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80 degrees, dew point at 50. However wind gusting over 50 mph. Low tonight only 59. Hoping for storms this week.

#30
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 April 2018 - 07:40 PM

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The Not A Model is showing Tuesday being a capped bust with enough forcing for MAYBE an isolated storm, with the better threat being up north. The 3km variant is the same deal.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#31
Tom

Posted 30 April 2018 - 03:09 AM

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Warm and Humid weather are in the forecast mid-week and rainfall looks ideal.  I think I'm going to spread some fertilizer on my lawn Tue or Wed just in time for a good widespread soaking.  Summer time in Chi this week!

 

DcBQEBwXkAAHVYk.jpg

 

 

00z GEFS looking good...

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_22.png


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#32
Tom

Posted 30 April 2018 - 03:33 AM

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Some pretty big changes per the CFSv2 for the month of May.  Blocking disappears and a huge ridge builds across the CONUS.  I'm skeptical of the location of the ridge near the GL's/MW.  The cycling pattern of the LRC suggests to me that those farther north and east in our sub forum will see many troughs swing through and plenty of chances of precip this month.  I could see the heat really build across the central/southern Plains and into the MW right around Memorial Day and last through month's end setting up a hot start to summer down south.  Should be an interesting mid/late month with an active period of severe weather May 7th thru Memorial Day weekend.  We may conceivably see chances of storms every 2-3 days across the sub forum beginning Week 2 into the last week of the month.  Some will get hits, some not, that's the way it goes.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20180429.201805.gif

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180429.201805.gif

 

 

 

Very wet across the central/southern Plains...

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20180429.201805.gif



#33
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 April 2018 - 04:09 AM

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OAX coming out with the strong wording. With a triple point in the picture and a sudden spike in EHI values, wouldn't be surprised to see SPC give us a moderate risk either this afternoon or tomorrow.
 

Focus shifts to the developing severe threat Tuesday afternoon and
night as the front moves to a position just north of I80 by early
evening. Atmosphere may be largely capped until about 21z, with
significant thunderstorm development likely along the I80
corridor. Surface dewpoints could be in the lower 60s by then,
with 0-6km bulk shear values increasing to around 50 knots.
Surface-based CAPE of up to 2500 J/kg, combined with strong
convergence along the surface front should lead to supercells in
southeast NE, expanding in coverage through the evening. Surface
winds will be slightly backed, enhancing helicity, with veering
winds aloft, Soundings suggest critical angles of low level shear
and storm relative winds will be nearly perpendicular, resulting
in a high likelihood of tornadic supercells initially. GFS even
indicates there could be a magic triple point initiation perhaps
west or southwest of Lincoln. Storms should expand in coverage
northwest along the frontal boundary which becomes nearly
stationary through the evening. SPC has maintained areas
along/south of Interstate 80 in an enhanced risk for severe storms
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a 10% probability of tornadoes,
which could be significant (EFT or greater). Locally heavy rain
will be possible with storms Tuesday as well, with WPC continuing
to highlight a slight risk of excessive rainfall. However, the
area also remains quite dry, ranging 2-3" below normal over the
previous 30 days, so the rain will also be beneficial and needed.
The severe threat diminishes after midnight south of I80, with
heavy rain the predominant threat by then.


Even NAM is less of a fly in the ointment, even though 3km still has main development North of us. I think that's wrong considering where the triple point will be.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#34
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 April 2018 - 09:10 AM

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This is quickly turning into a possible tornado outbreak scenario for tomorrow. GFS soundings have PDS tornado wording. We'll get a moderate risk without question.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#35
NEJeremy

Posted 30 April 2018 - 09:46 AM

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I'll be heading out tomorrow for a 2 day chase. Tomorrow I've been watching the intersection of the cool front and dry line and what looks like even a nice dry line bulge right south of that intersection. The models have pretty consistently showing that down in Kansas, but of late have been shifting this further northeast. My target tomorrow is somewhere south of York along the NE/KS border. If the 12Z NAM is right, a nice looking cell should track east along the border or into southern Nebraska and after 6p tornado potential really ramps up.

The 12Z GFS is even further north and east into Nebraska to the west and southwest of Lincoln. I'm going to go just east of wherever that intersection of the dry line and cool front is.

Further south along the dry line has potential, but I'm worried about a blue sky bust even though the parameters look nice. It would be sweet to have a lone supercell with no other storms for miles.

For Wednesday, this was looking like the big day, but I'm not so certain anymore. The NAM models aren't really spitting out much, but the GFS is better now. Atmosphere is strongly unstable and uncapped over most of Oklahoma and Kansas, but it appears the main piece of energy might arrive too late. However, with that amount of instability and no cap, it won't take much to pop something. Wind profiles aren't overly good though until much later. The 12Z GFS does now show a shortwave moving into western OK and southern KS about 6p, so maybe that will be enough to save the day.



#36
NEJeremy

Posted 30 April 2018 - 09:55 AM

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This is quickly turning into a possible tornado outbreak scenario for tomorrow. GFS soundings have PDS tornado wording. We'll get a moderate risk without question.

I'd be careful with the PDS soundings. They seem to be pretty arbitrary on when they pop up in the soundings. I've seen them show up with very average parameters, but the LCL's are super low. I've seen sky high shear numbers, but no PDS sounding. Never seen the exact requirements for a PDS sounding to show up.

That being said, the SPC mentioned a strong tornado possible. They kept the enhanced risk too with the latest update. I'm not sure the coverage of storms will be enough for a true outbreak. There doesn't look like there will be a lot of storms at least initially in the afternoon and early evening. There's not a lot of forcing tomorrow. SPC mentions neutral or even rising heights. Of course, individual storms are better for tornadoes than a mess of storms in a line, but the models seem relatively "dry" for tomorrow afternoon and evening.


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#37
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:09 AM

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I'm not going out tomorrow. It's been sorta a policy of mine that I don't go out if there's a legit threat of severe weather over my place. Hope you get some good stuff Jeremy! I'd set up East of the triple point about 50 miles South of the cold front.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#38
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:21 AM

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I'd be careful with the PDS soundings. They seem to be pretty arbitrary on when they pop up in the soundings. I've seen them show up with very average parameters, but the LCL's are super low. I've seen sky high shear numbers, but no PDS sounding. Never seen the exact requirements for a PDS sounding to show up.
That being said, the SPC mentioned a strong tornado possible. They kept the enhanced risk too with the latest update. I'm not sure the coverage of storms will be enough for a true outbreak. There doesn't look like there will be a lot of storms at least initially in the afternoon and early evening. There's not a lot of forcing tomorrow. SPC mentions neutral or even rising heights. Of course, individual storms are better for tornadoes than a mess of storms in a line, but the models seem relatively "dry" for tomorrow afternoon and evening.


Yeah I posted that without looking at simulated reflectivities. Granted, I'm never really trusting of what NAM says as it has the tendency to be wrong from what I've seen. I'll believe one particular thing when HRRR comes into range tomorrow.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#39
NEJeremy

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Yeah I posted that without looking at simulated reflectivities. Granted, I'm never really trusting of what NAM says as it has the tendency to be wrong from what I've seen. I'll believe one particular thing when HRRR comes into range tomorrow.

Do you ever look at the other short range models on Pivotalweather? Those are pretty neat to be able to see helicity tracks.

Go under models, and then under convection allowing models. There's 3 other models, other than the 3km NAM and the HRRR.

I use these a lot to try and see if there will be a lot of rotating storms. 

http://www.pivotalwe...=1&r=us_c&dpdt=

http://www.pivotalwe...=1&r=us_c&dpdt=

http://www.pivotalwe...=1&r=us_c&dpdt=


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#40
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Do you ever look at the other short range models on Pivotalweather? Those are pretty neat to be able to see helicity tracks.
Go under models, and then under convection allowing models. There's 3 other models, other than the 3km NAM and the HRRR.
I use these a lot to try and see if there will be a lot of rotating storms.
http://www.pivotalwe...=1&r=us_c&dpdt=
http://www.pivotalwe...=1&r=us_c&dpdt=
http://www.pivotalwe...=1&r=us_c&dpdt=


I've never checked those out! Thanks for mentioning.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#41
jaster220

Posted 30 April 2018 - 11:02 AM

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:lol:  Love it when supercells deliver the bucks $$$..

 

Focus shifts to the developing severe threat Tuesday afternoon and
night as the front moves to a position just north of I80 by early
evening. Atmosphere may be largely capped until about 21z, with
significant thunderstorm development likely along the I80
corridor. Surface dewpoints could be in the lower 60s by then,
with 0-6km bulk shear values increasing to around 50 knots.
Surface-based CAPE of up to 2500 J/kg, combined with strong
convergence along the surface front should lead to supercells in
southeast NE, expanding in coverage through the evening. Surface
winds will be slightly backed, enhancing helicity, with veering
winds aloft, Soundings suggest critical angles of low level shear
and storm relative winds will be nearly perpendicular, resulting
in a high likelihood of tornadic supercells initially. GFS even
indicates there could be a magic triple point initiation perhaps
west or southwest of Lincoln. Storms should expand in coverage
northwest along the frontal boundary which becomes nearly
stationary through the evening. SPC has maintained areas
along/south of Interstate 80 in an enhanced risk for severe storms
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a 10% probability of tornadoes,
which could be significant (EFT or greater). Locally heavy rain
will be possible with storms Tuesday as well, with WPC continuing
to highlight a slight risk of excessive rainfall. However, the
area also remains quite dry, ranging 2-3" below normal over the
previous 30 days, so the rain will also be beneficial and needed.
The severe threat diminishes after midnight south of I80, with
heavy rain the predominant threat by then.

 

 

..anyhoo, good luck out there and stay safe y'all 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#42
Tom

Posted 30 April 2018 - 11:04 AM

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WRF showing some NE/IA/WI boomers late tomorrow evening...

 

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_38.png


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#43
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 April 2018 - 11:17 AM

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Well this was a surprise. I was at Culver's when I got the alert on my phone.

 

 

 

DUST STORM WARNING
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
213 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018

NEZ050-051-065-066-078-302304-
/O.NEW.KOAX.DS.W.0001.180430T1913Z-180430T2300Z/
213 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018

...Dust Storm Warning issued April 30 at 2:13PM CDT expiring April 30
at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Omaha/Valley NE...

Southerly winds continue 25 to 35 mph with gusts up around 55
mph possible. This will make travel difficult for high profile and
lightweight vehicles. Loose items could be blown around. Areas of
blowing dust will also reduce visibilities and an extreme fire
danger will also exist.
The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a Dust
Storm Warning, which is in effect until 6 PM CDT this evening.

* TIMING...Continuing through early evening.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* VISIBILITY...Visibilities may be near zero at times due to
blowing dust and dirt.

* Impacts...Travel may be difficult for high profile and
lightweight vehicles. Loose items may be blown around. Areas of
blowing dust and dirt will occur. Extreme fire danger will
exist.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph are expected for
one hour or longer, or winds of 45 to 57 mph for any duration.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

A Dust Storm Warning means severely limited visibilities are
expected with blowing dust. Travel could become extremely
dangerous. Persons with respiratory problems should make
preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#44
snowstorm83

Posted 30 April 2018 - 11:20 AM

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iPhone had a spasm, so I was alerted of the dust storm immediately LOL



#45
Tom

Posted 30 April 2018 - 11:48 AM

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CPC's updated outlook for May...AN temps/precip???  I'd be weary of the AN temps up near the GL's.  Just my opinion.

 

 

 

off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

off15_prcp.gif


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#46
Tom

Posted 01 May 2018 - 02:36 AM

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Happy May Day!  I know we don't usually celebrate May Day in the U.S. but around the world it's a popular celebration.  As we welcome the final month of met Spring, it will feel like mid-summer around town.  Yesterday, the parks were filled with the kiddos and the neighborhood was electric with people taking walks and soaking in the return of summer-like warmth.  It really was a fantastic day.  ORD hit 80F for the 1st time this season.  Another carbon copy on tap for today.

 

What a relief it is to not have to fire up the furnace this morning.  Slept with the window cracked open and being awaken by the signing birds brings back the good feelings of summer.  Looking forward to storms and quite the heavy rain potential across the MW/GL's.

 

00z GFS...

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

06z NAM-3km...highlighting the training storm potential across the I-80 corridor from IA into N IL and points north...this multi-day set up is ideal for a heavy rain event.  I think we may see flood watches if the trends continue, esp with the very dry grounds.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

00z Euro showing a lot of rain as well with 2-3" across IA/N IL/WI and into MI...

 

DcGnThxVMAE5OW3.jpg



#47
Tom

Posted 01 May 2018 - 02:44 AM

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A few things stand out to me when you take a look at this North American total precip map over the next 10 days.  1) Extremely dry across the prairies of SW Canada into the Dakotas 2) Wet across the MW/GL's  3) Extremely dry across the TX Panhandle region into parts of KS/W NE...I believe this will have a dreadful impact to crop production in Canada as well as the central Plains this year where it has been bone dry.  The Canadian wildfire season is prob going to be a hot topic this summer.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_40.png


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#48
Tom

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:00 AM

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00z WRF showing a nasty line of storms around 7:00pm tonight near OMA/LNK...right where SPC is showing the Enhanced Outlook for today...

 

 

 

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_24.png

 

 

 

day1otlk_1200.gif?1525172602347


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#49
Tom

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:02 AM

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Latest HRRR agreeing that storms should fire up around dinner time for NE/KS and then into IA...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_15.png

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_16.png

 

 

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png



#50
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:46 AM

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Yup the 10% tornado risk is down in KS. ****. Primary hail threats are the worst.

Not even good for chasers down there as most activity looks to be after sunset. This is awful for everyone, yay!!!!
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)