May 2018 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

He narrowly escapes the triple-digit deluge! That 99F is his backyard (I think)

Pretty close to it! When the ground/trees are full of moisture here, it's surprisingly hard to break the century mark. This is something that a computer just can't see. I'd take the under for me. North and west looks pretty bad though. A lot of areas in Northwestern OK have broken 100 2 or 3 times already.

[OKwx2k4]

Looks just like every day during 2010 when I worked in TX. I actually forgot what being "chilly" was like for JJA. Was 95F at 9 am and 9 pm, lol. I actually liked it, but couldn't imagine living like that without A/C. Then I'd be saying your last quote

Yeah. Those summers aren't fun. Not one bit. Humidity, however, anywhere from 80+ gets maddening. It's dang humid here right now. Back in the heatwave year like 2011, the only thing about it that was "comfortable" or any help at all was that it was ridiculously dry.

[Tom]

It's a warm and muggy morning with a temp of 71F and 63F DP.  Haven't felt a morning like this in many months.  Actually, I think I have to go back to the summer of '16 bc last year I came back from AZ in July and I don't remember it being this warm.  Although, I did experience some warm and humid days in AZ during the Monsoon season last year.  Heading to the beach later this morning.  Have a splendid holiday weekend everyone!

[Tom]

That MCS last night dropped some 1" diameter hail near Ames, IA...

 

[Tom]

@ Okwx, these sprites were amazingly beautiful last Thursday near Oklahoma city...

 

http://spaceweather.com/images2018/25may18/jellyfish2_strip.png

 

 

 

Oklahoma is the epicenter of a region that we call "Sprite Alley"--a corridor stretching across the US Great Plains where intense thunderstorms produce lots of upward directed lightning. Already this year we have received reports of sprites and their stronger cousins, Gigantic Jets, from Texas to Nebraska. And summer thunderstorm season isn't even fully underway yet. 

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, these sprites were amazingly beautiful last Thursday near Oklahoma city...

 

http://spaceweather.com/images2018/25may18/jellyfish2_strip.png

Oh my! Thank you for sharing! You know, I've never saw one. Those are amazingly beautiful for sure!

[Tom]

Are you looking for any relief from the heat???  The period between June 4th-6th things begin to change and I think we enter a period of cooler weather.   00z GEFS beginning to flash the idea which will feel almost chilly, esp where we will have come from...

 

 

 

The storm system which will likely begin this transition is lining up with the LRC as we open June.  It fits the pattern when we saw a closed low that ejected out of the 4 corners on Nov 28th-29th.  The 00z GEFS show a similar system...this could be a severe weather producer 

 

[westMJim]

The snow patches are still on Mt Ripley up at Houghton, Michigan.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ski-hill/motion.html

And

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/motion.html

Here are more Michigan Tech webcams

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

[CentralNebWeather]

Ready to leave the hotel here in Miami to go to the Carnival Cruise terminal. It has been cloudy and muggy with off and on rain, even a heavy tropical shower yesterday afternoon. We are hoping as the ship goes east the rain chances decrease and sunshine increases. Relatives back home in Central Nebraska said yesterday hit 96. Enjoy your holiday weekend everyone, and take time to remember those that have given the ultimate sacrifice to give us the great freedoms we enjoy today.

[St Paul Storm]

Already 81F with a 66 DP. Heading up to 96 today and 97 in the point for tomorrow. It’s May, right? Our lake was still ice covered on April 29. Now the water is warm enough to swim in. Almost unbelievable.

[Minny_Weather]

Reminds me of how this time of year typically is in Houston. Here in East Dubuque, IL I'm at 82*F with a dew point of 68*F.

[Tom]

At the beach with a slight breeze off the lake in the upper 70’s. The lake is ice cold from the reactions I’m seeing from people trying to get knee deep in the water. Kinda funny actually. Other than that, it’s....#perfection

[snowstorm83]

I'm out of town visiting my parents, but jeez I looked at the afternoon temps in eastern Nebraska and was like wtf. Temps are approaching 100 and it's freaking late may. It was snowing just like 5 weeks ago.

[NEJeremy]

Hit 100 degrees today, woohoo!!

[clintbeed1993]

This is ridiculous.  Where is our severe weather season?  Instead we get late July heat in May.

[Thunder98]

NWS has Stevens Point reaching 94F on Memorial Day and 92F Sunday. Today the high was 89F. Tomorrow Stevens Point shoulf finally break there 5 year  drought of not seeing 90F+ temperatures. 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Still 88F at 9:30pm. Kinda gross. A/C is humming.

[jaster220]

For all you peeps sweltering, here's a pic from the Mitt to cool your thoughts. It actually was warmer than expected there today with full sun and 75F. Boaters were out in full force passing 5 abreast in the channel at times. 

 

[jaster220]

The snow patches are still on Mt Ripley up at Houghton, Michigan.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ski-hill/motion.html

And

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/motion.html

Here are more Michigan Tech webcams

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

 

I mentioned that to my wife this evening that it's a crazy contrast in our non-mountainous state that we have this heat-wave going and there's still patches of winter snow on the ground while it looks and feels like mid-summer down our way. Wild stuff. So is Lansing's Memorial Day record cold high temp of 41F on 5-30-1889. Talk about a pneumonia front 

[Tom]

For all you peeps sweltering, here's a pic from the Mitt to cool your thoughts. It actually was warmer than expected there today with full sun and 75F. Boaters were out in full force passing 5 abreast in the channel at times. 

 

20180526 Saugatuck MI.PNG

That looks refreshing!  The haze coming off the lake had a similar look yesterday over on the other side where I was.  Picture, perfect day to be at the beach.  I tip toed into the lake and ya, it was friggin' cold!  This hot spell will work on water temps and hopefully bump up temps quite a bit.  Actually, I just skimmed through the water temps over the last 48 hours and they warmed up 2 degrees across a lot of southern LM in just the last day or so.  Check out the animation.

 

 

[Tom]

Still 88F at 9:30pm. Kinda gross. A/C is humming.

From what you've experienced back in April, this is probably the craziest flip to summer you'll ever see!  It was just about 42 days ago the big April Blizzard hit your area.

 

Meantime, back-to-back Hundo's for OMA???

 

 

 @IllinoisWx, aren't you glad you came to Chicago?

 

[Tom]

For the last post of the morning, the remnants of Tropical Storm #Alberto may swipe the S MW into the lower GL's mid week bringing much needed heavy rains across IL/IN.  The GFS/EURO/ICON somewhat agree on the placement of the heavier rains.

 

 

 

[Thunder98]

From what you've experienced back in April, this is probably the craziest flip to summer you'll ever see!  It was just about 42 days ago the big April Blizzard hit your area.

 

Meantime, back-to-back Hundo's for OMA???

 

 

 @IllinoisWx, aren't you glad you came to Chicago?

 

At this time of year where the lakes are still quite chilly and the land is hot, do you see fog developing and messing up the weather forecast?

[Tom]

At this time of year where the lakes are still quite chilly and the land is hot, do you see fog developing and messing up the weather forecast?

No, not really. Not like what you see in So Cal in the month of May. What’s that saying out there...”May Gray” or “June Gloom”??

[Niko]

Current temp already starting to rise. Temps nearing 90F+ today and tomorrow.

[Niko]

I mentioned that to my wife this evening that it's a crazy contrast in our non-mountainous state that we have this heat-wave going and there's still patches of winter snow on the ground while it looks and feels like mid-summer down our way. Wild stuff. So is Lansing's Memorial Day record cold high temp of 41F on 5-30-1889. Talk about a pneumonia front 

Now, that would be a depressing MDW

[Tom]

Some cold thoughts on this torchy day in May: 

 

12z GFS predicted snowfall amounts in N Canada by June 1st, while not unheard of, it is "fitting" for what has been a cold Spring up that way and climate models are suggesting a cold summer as well.  Snowfall is above normal in the regions of Newfoundland and Labrador which has been happening in years past in consecutive seasons.  Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea are still completely covered by thick sea ice and it appears to me that both the winter and summer vortex have been present and disrupting this region more frequently.  There are reports of huge ice bergs, more than usual, floating in this part of the world, and not because of global warming.  If it were due to a warming climate, we would not see such ice bergs floating this late in the season.  In fact, weren't the ice caps supposed to be melted by now???

 

It's not a question "if" we are entering a climatic shift, but moreso, how long and how many more years should we expect colder winters/summers in the years ahead???   Looking forward, most climate models are suggesting another year where the Polar Vortex will be an impactful,North American, hemispheric player which would make it 4 out of the last 5 years of having an impact across Canada.  Is this a trend???  We'll have to sit back and see what nature delivers but my personal belief is we should start preparing to see this to be more common than not.

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Some cold thoughts on this torchy day in May:

 

12z GFS predicted snowfall amounts in N Canada by June 1st, while not unheard of, it is "fitting" for what has been a cold Spring up that way and climate models are suggesting a cold summer as well. Snowfall is above normal in the regions of Newfoundland and Labrador which has been happening in years past in consecutive seasons. Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea are still completely covered by thick sea ice and it appears to me that both the winter and summer vortex have been present and disrupting this region more frequently. There are reports of huge ice bergs, more than usual, floating in this part of the world, and not because of global warming. If it were due to a warming climate, we would not see such ice bergs floating this late in the season. In fact, weren't the ice caps supposed to be melted by now???

 

It's not a question "if" we are entering a climatic shift, but moreso, how long and how many more years should we expect colder winters/summers in the years ahead??? Looking forward, most climate models are suggesting another year where the Polar Vortex will be an impactful,North American, hemispheric player which would make it 4 out of the last 5 years of having an impact across Canada. Is this a trend??? We'll have to sit back and see what nature delivers but my personal belief is we should start preparing to see this to be more common than not.

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

 

 

 

I couldn't have said this better. I hate the way I sound when I write this, but the only ones still questioning the "if" are the ones who stand to make a killing off the hype that has been generated for the better part of 40 years. (90% of media is liberal and supports the liberal stance on AGW) In terms of cycles, this warm or warming cycle has been anomalously long. Most in the last century only last 20-28 years, however, there's evidence for longer cold/warm cycles in the past. The very fast flip in the Atlantic suggests that we're headed for huge temp crashes on the Pacific side soon and when that happens, we could and should very well run a negative global temperature anomaly and enter an ice preservation pattern over the northern hemisphere.

[jaster220]

Current temp already starting to rise. Temps nearing 90F+ today and tomorrow.

 

88F here last I looked. SMI has been on a roll in stringing together a decade of mostly HOT MD's. I remember BC hitting 91F on MD of 2010 cuz I'd just come up from TX for the holiday and took the fam out to Binder Zoo and it was ROASTING hot! Going on the African Safari segment really felt the part that day. The other one that sticks out was 2012 but was invited to a pool party at my Sis's place so that was fine.  I was in Saugatuck yesterday where it was sunny and 75F. Oddly, due to a lack of lake breeze, that felt warm if you stood in the sun, but any place in the shade was fantastic. And that's a mostly shady place (trees I mean, not Michigangsters). Just in case those LR models pin the tail on the June below normal donkey, I've proactively fired up my central cooling so it gets at least one good cycling of the system. Not good if they sit idle too long..

[OKwx2k4]

If you need any evidence that something has changed, look no further than the top of this map.

[OKwx2k4]

One of 7 stations still fending off those 90s. I don't think I can make it much longer though.

[james1976]

Already 95. Shattering records today.

[westMJim]

It now has reached 90° at GRR for the first time in 2018. This is much earlier than the June 27th average date for the first 90° Here at my house I have a even warmer 95° at the current time.Also if indeed Alberto moves into lower Michigan look for the DP’s to go higher mid week. The current DP at GRR is 67. BTW the current temperature at Copper Harbor is 46 with at DP of 41° and at Munising it is 52 with a DP of 50 so in the UP is is much colder by the lake.

[Thunder98]

It's official! Stevens Point, WI has finally broke there 5 year +90F drought! First time the timerature is above 90F since August 28th, 2013!

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

It's official! Stevens Point, WI has finally broke there 5 year +90F drought! First time the timerature is above 90F since August 28th, 2013!

 

stevenspointwi90F.PNG

That dew point is heavenly, though. Where I am right now, Geneseo, IL, the dew point is 64°F, but feels way worse for some reason.

[NEJeremy]

Baffin Bay- "The bay is not navigable most of the year because of the ice cover and high density of floating ice and icebergs in the open areas."

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

"Sea ice in the Hudson Bay usually does not begin to retreat until the end of May."

"Arctic sea ice extent for April 2018 averaged 13.71 million square kilometers (5.29 million square miles). This was 980,000 square kilometers (378,400 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average and only 20,000 square kilometers (7,700 square miles) above the record low April extent set in 2016. Given the uncertainty in measurements, NSIDC considers 2016 and 2018 as tying for lowest April sea ice extent on record."

 

Seems like we're not doing too good GLOBALLY on ice cover to me. I know I'm part of the conspiracy theory pitching, "liberal media." You should see my bank account, I'm so rich from pushing this agenda Stupid scientists and their clean energy sources ideas and forcing companies to be cleaner with their emissions and cars to be more fuel efficient and produce less emissions and thinking deforestation is a bad thing, etc etc etc.

[NEJeremy]

99 at last hour here in Omaha. Wonder if we'll crack 100 on back to back days in MAY. Not even including today, we're 7.0 degrees above normal for the month, easily more than wiping out our record below normal temp average for April that was so amazing to everyone. Considering the forecast for the rest of the month, we have a good shot at being 8+ degrees above normal this month!

[Hawkeye]

We've hit the upper 90s this afternoon, like much of Iowa.

[Tom]

It's official, ORD hit 97F, tying the May 2012 record...boy, was that a hot summer!  #TorchOnChitown

[St Paul Storm]

We’ve only made it to 91 today so far due to outflow boundaries from storms up by St Cloud earlier today. But we’ll make up for it tomorrow. 99F now in the point with heat index up to 105.