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May 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Numerous severe warned storms are firing up across N IL in the more soupy airmass.  DP's have risen into the mid 60's...tonight has the summer feel to it.  Gosh, how I have missed this type of evening.  My neighbors A/C is humming for the first time this year.

Haven’t looked at the models today so not sure what they’re showing. But it looks like the linear mode out in IA could lead to some major training in N IL. That’s funny about the A/C humming. I just flipped the furnace off for the season this morning. Ha!

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Haven’t looked at the models today so not sure what they’re showing. But it looks like the linear mode out in IA could lead to some major training in N IL. That’s funny about the A/C humming. I just flipped the furnace off for the season this morning. Ha!

I've had 2 nice storms back to back and now a 3rd one is right on my doorstep.  The last one was severe warned but no hail or real strong winds here, although, I had torrential rains and prob easily closing in on 1.0" of rain.  South side got crushed with 75mph winds and lots of tree/roof damage.

 

As I type this, I'm getting very strong outflow from this cell...I must say, it's sorta odd to see the trees still quite bare being whipped around by the wind.  The sound of the wind roaring through the trees is different and almost creepy.  Normally you'd hear the leaves produce a different sound but not tonight.  An interesting experience that's for sure.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180503.0106.gif

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I wouldn't be surprised to see some flood advisories hoisted around here if those storms forming out in IA continue to show signs of a west/east training band.  Earlier run of the RPM model was spitting out 2-4" of rain by Thu pm from the entire 2-day event.  I think some spots may have that much by tomorrow morning!

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I wouldn't be surprised to see some flood advisories hoisted around here if those storms forming out in IA continue to show signs of a west/east training band.  Earlier run of the RPM model was spitting out 2-4" of rain by Thu pm from the entire 2-day event.  I think some spots may have that much by tomorrow morning!

Just like I thought, LOT issues a Flood Watch:

 

 

 

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

 

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

 

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Illinois and Indiana,

including the following areas, in Illinois, Boone, Cook,

DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kane, Kankakee,

Kendall, La Salle, Lake IL, Lee, Livingston, McHenry, Ogle,

Will, and Winnebago. In Indiana, Benton, Jasper, Lake IN,

Newton, and Porter.

 

* Through Thursday morning

 

* Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will likely produce heavy

rainfall over much of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana

tonight through early Thursday morning. This will be in addition

to what has already fallen this evening.

 
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In other news, for those who follow the suns solar activity and the impending solar minimum, today's write up on Spaceweather.com was one of the more interesting ones I've read this year. It appears the sun is falling asleep much quicker than NASA's models and forecasts. Is it a surprise NASA is sending a mission to our biggest star this summer?? You can find the link here for this mission to the sun. The fact that our gov't is taking a big step into studying our sun is of great importance for humanity. Something is brewing and we will all be effected by the suns activity.

That was a great write up. Timely also. I was just wondering why I hadn't heard anything about the sun lately and then I saw a new post there. I'm definitely keeping my eyes on it. Thank you!

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Storm wasn’t all that intense, had some good gusts for sure, but man, I got some amazing pictures out by my place! [sorry for the sideways pictures btw]

 

 

attachicon.gifAD2438AF-5E8F-4F6C-81C9-AAB76C83B4CD.jpeg

 

attachicon.gifC4CD0628-7B54-4DFE-978B-5702FFD27D85.jpeg

 

attachicon.gif51B53CCB-5C20-439F-83B8-71D29340EF82.jpeg

 

 

 

Welcome to Illinois I guess eh?

Not much sleep last night!  Those were some loud a** storms around midnight.  An impressive day/night of severe weather around here in my book.  Not too crazy, just enough to keep things interesting.  

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Morning boomers woke me up. About to get a round through here. I don't think there was supposed to be much activity here this morning but here it is. NWS is downplaying the severe threat down here this evening and tonight but I can't really see why. Will be a near perfect environment today. Didn't even have a really great environment yesterday and nearly every storm exceeded severe parameters. I just don't know about these people sometimes but they get paid to do it so I should probably keep my mouth shut. Lol.

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Not surprised to see a lot of standing water in my back yard from all the heavy rain.   Before the storms hit around midnight, I've had just over an inch...prob double that since then...

 

Since: 11:30pm

 

 

 

1.95” Wilmette 1.77” Glenview 1.74” Schaumburg 1.66” Hoffman Estates 1.32” Des Plaines
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A new record warmest minimum of 62° was set yesterday (May 2nd) the old record was 60. Here at Grand Rapids the warmest minimum is 60 or better between April 12th and October 25th The warmest minimum is 70 or better between June 3rd and September 12th with several in the low 80’s

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I picked up 0.51" overnight from the moderate rain shield that spread over the area.  I'll take it.  I'd still like to see at least one heavy downpour before this system is outa here.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2-3" totals around town:

 

 

 

1.84” CHI- O’Hare
0.45” CHI-Midway
2.93” Sleepy Hollow
2.67” Arlington Heights
2.55” Elmhurst
2.25” Carol Stream
2.23” Glencoe
1.97” CHI-Rogers Park

 

 

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I see absolutely no hail threat from these storms tonight. Updrafts from this look almost nonexistent. What I'm seeing is a singlecellular and multicellular storm mode with wind being the primary threat and small hail and an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. Enhanced risk looks good where it is.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'm worried about what's gonna magically make temps rise to the point where we can get severe weather here. It needs to get up to the mid-70s and right now we're dealing with low-50s with a North wind under thick cloud cover. I'm just not feeling it today.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'm worried about what's gonna magically make temps rise to the point where we can get severe weather here. It needs to get up to the mid-70s and right now we're dealing with low-50s with a North wind under thick cloud cover. I'm just not feeling it today.

We haven't gotten one drop of rain this entire week in my town.  Storms have missed our area every direction possible.  Even had storms this morning in the eastern and western part of our county but here in the central part of the county, just cloudy and cool.  Sure hope this isn't a precursor to how the summer goes.  

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I guess soggy is the best word to describe my type of weather in my area. Currently thundershowers. and temps holding at 62F.

 

Last night was a lightning show around my vicinity. Great weather to sleep in. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clear Creek Amana high school in Tiffin reported .98".  That's only a couple miles from my house, so seems like a good estimate for my.  My rain gauge was tilted at a nearly 45 degree angle, so it didn't collect any rain.  I fixed that this morning so hopefully i'll get an accurate report for today's storms. 

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Michigan black bears are on the move. In the past two days the Michigan DNR has capture 3 black bears in 3 cities in lower Michigan. On Monday there was one in the city of Midland, yesterday there was one near the school in Coopersville (about 5 miles to the NW of me) and today there was on the west side of Grand Rapids this one was well into the city and GR is the 2nd largest city in Michigan.

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No surprise, the enhanced severe area has been removed.  It's not heating up a ton around here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In order to get severe wx today, we need to be in the mid-70s. I posted earlier today that I was worried about heating. Our temps have soared to 60.6*F. Overcast and drizzling with a light North wind. Yeah we're not getting severe weather today.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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In order to get severe wx today, we need to be in the mid-70s. I posted earlier today that I was worried about heating. Our temps have soared to 60.6*F. Overcast and drizzling with a light North wind. Yeah we're not getting severe weather today.

 

Future-cast has the stationary go back north a bit as a WF. If not, then yeah you're done..

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I guess soggy is the best word to describe my type of weather in my area. Currently thundershowers. and temps holding at 62F.

 

Last night was a lightning show around my vicinity. Great weather to sleep in. :D

 

It was until a very close strike around 3 am jolted me out of a state of slumbering bliss  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Michigan black bears are on the move. In the past two days the Michigan DNR has capture 3 black bears in 3 cities in lower Michigan. On Monday there was one in the city of Midland, yesterday there was one near the school in Coopersville (about 5 miles to the NW of me) and today there was on the west side of Grand Rapids this one was well into the city and GR is the 2nd largest city in Michigan.

 

Wow. That's bonkers. Wondering if the extended cold in spring kept them in hibernation so long that they're trying to make up for lost time scavenging anything anywhere? Back in the early 90's it was a big deal to have a bear inside the TC city limits. Downstate was unheard of so their comeback must be going well. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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72F and barely a cloud in the sky. Loving every minute of it today.

 

'grats on the beauty of a day up there! 

 

Chicago's shaping up for my visit as well.

 

By the time we roll into town Friday evening, it should be clearing up

 

20180504 Chicago hrly.PNG

 

When in Chicago you must live the high-life. I got a table for dinner as high as I could.

 

Signature at the 95th in Chicago.PNG

 

 

 

Oh..and Saturday's looking stellar

 

20180505 Chicago fcast.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We only had a bit of sun late this morning. Severe chances seem to be diminishing here but I’m still hoping for some good downpours. I got 0.52 inches of rain last night, which is better than some of the short term models were showing.

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Wow. That's bonkers. Wondering if the extended cold in spring kept them in hibernation so long that they're trying to make up for lost time scavenging anything anywhere? Back in the early 90's it was a big deal to have a bear inside the TC city limits. Downstate was unheard of so their comeback must be going well. 

I was wondering the same thing. looks like they are hungry. 

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Looks like northern Iowa is in line for the best rain tonight.

 

This system had three rounds.... northern Iowa, southern Iowa, northern Iowa.  Here in the middle it has been a big disappointment.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@ Jaster, your going to have a picture perfect day with your lady on Saturday.  Ideal conditions for great views on top of Chitown's sky scrapers.  It will be a bit cooler near the lake (low 70's) but you couldn't ask for a better day in early May.  By Sunday, the lake is not your friend... :(

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