May 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

I got a quarter inch of rain overnight, bringing my 3-day total to 0.89".  That's not what was advertised, but it's something.

[Snowshoe]

PERFECT sleeping weather last night! NIce steady rain all night long. Radar estimates around 2" last night and 3-4" over the last 7 days.

[gabel23]

People to our North along the Platte River got soaked all 3 days. They have to have collected over 5". 

 

I had a whopping.05. Yes not even 1/10 if an inch For a 3 day storm in May. Amazing.

I had 2.1" and we were in desperate need. I can't imagine how bad you guys are sitting.....hopefully mid-may can bring a nice soaking to everyone around the state. I actually was hoping the rain would dodge me as I planned on planting my potatoes this weekend. Now I'm hoping to get my garden all in next weekend. 

 

You talk about a wild start to the month.....dust storm, flooding rains, large hail and tornadoes to some of us all within a week! 

[Tom]

00z GEFS turning bone dry across the central Plains over the next 10 days...couple that with a building West/SW ridge, I think this will hurt the ag belt across this region.

 

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

With the high winds out there today be careful the winds are now strong enough to knock down tree limbs and whole trees for that matter. It is ripping out there right now. Last reports from GRR was of winds of 46 MPH but now the gust look to be in the 55 to 60 MPH range here in my area. Power is still on but there are several large trees that have been uprooted and several more that just split.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, your going to have a picture perfect day with your lady on Saturday.  Ideal conditions for great views on top of Chitown's sky scrapers.  It will be a bit cooler near the lake (low 70's) but you couldn't ask for a better day in early May.  By Sunday, the lake is not your friend...

 

Thanks! Just there from this eve to Sat evening/night so Sunday not a prob for us. 

 

Ma Nature decides to make me fight my way there tho! Life's little adventures.. 

 

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

1017 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

 

MIZ051-052-056>059-064>067-071>074-042200-

/O.UPG.KGRR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180504T2200Z/

/O.NEW.KGRR.HW.W.0001.180504T1417Z-180504T2200Z/

Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-

Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-

Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison,

Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte,

Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson

1017 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

 

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

 

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a High

Wind Warning...which is in effect until 6 PM EDT this evening.

the Wind Advisory is no longer in effect.

 

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 

* Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph

 

* Wind direction southwest in the morning, shifting west in the

afternoon

 

IMPACTS...

 

* Widespread power outages possible

 

* Downed trees and power lines

 

* Difficulty driving, especially on north-south roads

 

* Unsecured outdoor items and trash cans blown around

 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

* A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is

expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph

or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

[jaster220]

With the high winds out there today be careful the winds are now strong enough to knock down tree limbs and whole trees for that matter. It is ripping out there right now. Last reports from GRR was of winds of 46 MPH but now the gust look to be in the 55 to 60 MPH range here in my area. Power is still on but there are several large trees that have been uprooted and several more that just split.

 

I don't know why we keep getting these crazy-a$$ windstorms with sunshine and blue sky. We just had that really bad one 2 springs back. And now this! Just good thing most trees are not leafed-out up here. Could you imagine?? 

[Niko]

Cloudy and cooler w windy conditions. Temp @ 68F.

[Tom]

I thought this was an interesting tweet from Michael Ventrice regarding the MJO cycle:

 

 

 

The MJO has been on a 42-day cycle since January. The CFSv2 continues that periodicity into the start of June.

 

Gary Lezak has been saying this year's cycle is between 43-51 days, centering around 47 days, so his comment above is fairly close to where this year's cycle has been. 

[jaster220]

I don't know why we keep getting these crazy-a$$ windstorms with sunshine and blue sky. We just had that really bad one 2 springs back. And now this! Just good thing most trees are not leafed-out up here. Could you imagine?? 

 

It was just last March 8th, not 2016 like I thought. Worst windstorm in decades and on a clear sunny day no less. Weird stuff is all I can say. 

[Niko]

Some chilly weather arriving Sunday w temps falling all day into the 50s and 40s. Ovanight lows dipping in the 30s. Some frost and freeze warnings are possible for my area. Dang! Luckily everything on my patio are still covered.

[Niko]

High Wind Warning for my area today. Winds are howling to 20 and 30 mph. Hang on to those hats y'all Michiganders.

[CentralNebWeather]

I had 2.1" and we were in desperate need. I can't imagine how bad you guys are sitting.....hopefully mid-may can bring a nice soaking to everyone around the state. I actually was hoping the rain would dodge me as I planned on planting my potatoes this weekend. Now I'm hoping to get my garden all in next weekend. 

 

You talk about a wild start to the month.....dust storm, flooding rains, large hail and tornadoes to some of us all within a week! 

My father-in-law and brother-in-law farm about 3000 acres in Phelps County.  They have several fields around the county.  There ranges were .05 to .80 in the span of 3 or 4 miles.  They said with the horrible dry winds we experienced for 2 days, the topsoil is considered to be dry, but subsoil is not bad.  However, if we go the next few weeks with nothing, irrigation would have to begin earlier than normal and their operating costs begin to skyrocket.

[hlcater]

00z GEFS turning bone dry across the central Plains over the next 10 days...couple that with a building West/SW ridge, I think this will hurt the ag belt across this region.

 

 

 

 

 

I currently don’t think the central US ridge locks in and persists for much longer than a week. Most weenie range runs on both the deterministic and ensembles show a return to periods of western troughing for the latter half of may into into June. Current GWO/AAM(which I recently found out about) support this pattern evolution which also leaves me generally optimistic for some severe weather returning around mid month and generally perisisting until June, especiall if the CFS dashboard is to be believed.

[Tom]

I currently don’t think the central US ridge locks in and persists for much longer than a week. Most weenie range runs on both the deterministic and ensembles show a return to periods of western troughing for the latter half of may into into June. Current GWO/AAM(which I recently found out about) support this pattern evolution which also leaves me generally optimistic for some severe weather returning around mid month and generally perisisting until June, especiall if the CFS dashboard is to be believed.

Transient is the way to lean IMO, the central CONUS ridge will likely not make it into the MW region, thus creating an active pattern which I'm leaning on, as we move into the middle of May.  The only area of concern for dryness developing is in the KS/TX/W OK region and up near C NE.  

[St Paul Storm]

Another day with red flag warnings here. Currently 75F with RH of 20%. We set the all-time snowiest April on record with 26”, but oddly we were 0.6” below normal on precip. Things are a tad bit dry but no concerns at this point as we start May.

 

I think I saw last week somewhere in OK had a temp of 91F and a dew point of -1F. Now that’s dry.

[OKwx2k4]

Another day with red flag warnings here. Currently 75F with RH of 20%. We set the all-time snowiest April on record with 26”, but oddly we were 0.6” below normal on precip. Things are a tad bit dry but no concerns at this point as we start May.

 

I think I saw last week somewhere in OK had a temp of 91F and a dew point of -1F. Now that’s dry.

Yes. I believe that was out where the fires occurred. No moisture from even plants to be found in the air.

[Tom]

The Land of 10,000 Lakes is smashing all-time ice-outs....

 

 

 

New all-time records for latest ice-out set on Minneapolis’ Chain of Lakes, Medicine in Plymouth and Phalen in St. Paul. White Bear is now set to break its record today from May 4, 1950. Could Lake Minnetonka smash a 161-year record tomorrow? Latest ice-out: May 5, 1857.

[Stacsh]

GFS is sizzling in the long range.  Too far out at this point though.  Hoping for good weather May 19th! (the whole week actually), as I'm getting married outdoors lol.  

[St Paul Storm]

The Land of 10,000 Lakes is smashing all-time ice-outs....

Crazy stuff. Last year the ice was out on our lake on March 17. This year it was May 1. The dock is going in the water tomorrow.

[OKwx2k4]

The Land of 10,000 Lakes is smashing all-time ice-outs....

That is absolutely amazing. They're in for one of the shortest summers in history if what I think is correct.

[Tom]

That is absolutely amazing. They're in for one of the shortest summers in history if what I think is correct.

Hope your good bud.  We're enjoying an absolutely delightful day with temps near 80F, pristine blue skies, SSW winds and comfortable humidity.  All of this ends though in about 5 hours or so.  Living near the GL's has its good and bad days this time of year so I gotta enjoy it while I can.

[james1976]

Whats up everyone? Hope all is well. I was in North Carolina for 8 days. Perfect weather the entire time I was there.

Just returned home and its low 80s and sunny!

Looks like I missed out on some nice T-storm action while i was gone. And I forgot to put out my rain gauge. Lol oh well. Its ready to go now.

[OKwx2k4]

Hope your good bud. We're enjoying an absolutely delightful day with temps near 80F, pristine blue skies, SSW winds and comfortable humidity. All of this ends though in about 5 hours or so. Living near the GL's has its good and bad days this time of year so I gotta enjoy it while I can.

Doing great Tom. Just been enjoying the springlike weather.

[Tom]

The LRC continues to shine and the next wave of activity, which, by far, has been one of the more active periods of this year's cyclical pattern is due later in the week and continue through the middle of the month.  As an example, during LRC cycle #1, the period from Nov 3rd-18th we saw 5-6 systems during this 2-week stretch and a couple of them were strong short waves that produced severe weather and flooding.  Remember how dry the EPS weeklies were not long ago and the CFSv2???  Well, I didn't believe it one bit and now the models are turning wet and cool for the following Mother's Day weekend (not good timing).  

 

The latest 00z GEFS show an elongated SLP coming out of the Rockies on Fri/Sat and ejecting out into the central Plains/MW region which will likely spawn a severe weather outbreak somewhere nearby.  Way back on Nov 4th/5th, a quite similar pattern set up across this part of the CONUS where a warm front was draped across SE CO/MO/C IL/C IN.  I find from past experience that earlier cycles tend to match up better with the late Spring/Summer cycles and the models are doing a pretty good job pin pointing the area of action heading into Mother's Day weekend.

 

 

 

Check out the wetter trends showing up across the ag belt....

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Not sure how this compares to past years (I am sure it was much later this year) But I cut the grass for the first time this year yesterday The grass in now growing and very green. And while the leaves are now starting to come out there are still many trees that have not yet leafed out yet. And looking at the MDOT web cams off to the north the green up has not happened just yet. As much of Northern Lower and all of the UP still has brown grass and in the UP a few spots still have snow piles yet.

 

https://mdotnetpublic.state.mi.us/drive/

[Tom]

Not sure how this compares to past years (I am sure it was much later this year) But I cut the grass for the first time this year yesterday The grass in now growing and very green. And while the leaves are now starting to come out there are still many trees that have not yet leafed out yet. And looking at the MDOT web cams off to the north the green up has not happened just yet. As much of Northern Lower and all of the UP still has brown grass and in the UP a few spots still have snow piles yet.

 

https://mdotnetpublic.state.mi.us/drive/

Let's see if nature will squeeze out any more snow mid month for the far north as the coldest part of the LRC cycles through.  I think its on the table.

[Tom]

Ha, 12z GFS creeping N Wisco/N MI with snow this Friday...

 

 

 

Meantime, look how badly the GEFS (last 10 GEFS runs) couldn't see the colder pattern this coming weekend as we enter the "coldest" part of the LRC which in my opinion will last about 10-15 days.  You know, the model "sees" the cold in the winter but in the warmer months it really looses any hope of seeing "cold" in the extended.  With that being said, record cold highs on the table during Mothers Day weekend in the central Plains?

 

 

 

 

 

Now that's a wet pattern next 10 days...hope to see C NE cash in on some of these rains...

 

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro also showing snow for the northwoods. If I saw another flake this season I might lose it. A few specks showing up too close to here on that map.

[Tom]

12z Euro also showing snow for the northwoods. If I saw another flake this season I might lose it. A few specks showing up too close to here on that map.

It’s both abysmal and fascinating to see this in mid-May, esp not in a mountainous region, although, it’s not terribly rare to see snow flakes in May.

[Money]

Please stop with the snow talk

 

Thanks

[OKwx2k4]

The LRC continues to shine and the next wave of activity, which, by far, has been one of the more active periods of this year's cyclical pattern is due later in the week and continue through the middle of the month. As an example, during LRC cycle #1, the period from Nov 3rd-18th we saw 5-6 systems during this 2-week stretch and a couple of them were strong short waves that produced severe weather and flooding. Remember how dry the EPS weeklies were not long ago and the CFSv2??? Well, I didn't believe it one bit and now the models are turning wet and cool for the following Mother's Day weekend (not good timing).

 

The latest 00z GEFS show an elongated SLP coming out of the Rockies on Fri/Sat and ejecting out into the central Plains/MW region which will likely spawn a severe weather outbreak somewhere nearby. Way back on Nov 4th/5th, a quite similar pattern set up across this part of the CONUS where a warm front was draped across SE CO/MO/C IL/C IN. I find from past experience that earlier cycles tend to match up better with the late Spring/Summer cycles and the models are doing a pretty good job pin pointing the area of action heading into Mother's Day weekend.

 

 

 

Check out the wetter trends showing up across the ag belt....

This is relatively a new development, right? Not sure how I missed it, if not. Should be great for farmers.

 

Edit: didn't scroll far enough. It's very new I guess. I'm going to love this pattern this summer.

[Tom]

Please stop with the snow talk

 

Thanks

Just one more time Money man...I think that would be a cool stat to have and then sit back to see when next seasons first flakes fall.

[james1976]

Yeah lookin wet next weekend. Local met has rain and 50s. Geez

[Minny_Weather]

Ill take a couple days of flipping the A/C off and getting a nice soaking.

[OKwx2k4]

Ill take a couple days of flipping the A/C off and getting a nice soaking.

I'll second that. Low CDDs makes me happy. Gotta make up for the last 3 years of 10 month summers down here somehow.

[Minny_Weather]

Friday evening is something to watch for here. Cold front to our NW and a possible triple point could mean a really good severe wx setup for Southeast Nebraska. Shear is marginal but those details can be ironed out as we get closer. Point is the chance is there for some severe weather Friday.

[OKwx2k4]

Friday evening is something to watch for here. Cold front to our NW and a possible triple point could mean a really good severe wx setup for Southeast Nebraska. Shear is marginal but those details can be ironed out as we get closer. Point is the chance is there for some severe weather Friday.

I would agree with you on that. Worth watching up there for sure given the potential setup.

[Tom]

My sister and her friend leave for Punta Cana on Friday.  Not a bad idea if the Euro is right around these parts until about dinner time when the front sags south.  Looks like the front hugs the WI/IL border before it sags south some after dinner time, but then pushes back north on Saturday ushering in low 80's through Sat and maybe into the early part of Mother's day.  I hope we can at least squeeze out a great day on Saturday around here.

 

 

 

 

 

The heaviest rains have shifted north per the latest 00z GEFS...I actually don't mind if this happens since my area cashed in with close to 3.75" of rain from the last event.  It's been dry up north so they can take a nice gulp of moisture.  #sharingiscaring

 

 

[Tom]

Since Saturday, the GEFS have trended way wetter across the ag belt into Week 2 when it has been bone dry until the recent flip.  Is it believable???  Yes, knowing how this years cyclical pattern I think that it's on the right track heading into the middle of the month.