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Summer forecast contest, year three.

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#1
Phil

Posted 27 April 2018 - 06:44 PM

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We started doing this in 2016, so why not continue the tradition? If anyone is interested, feel free to post a guess by May 5th @ 12AM PDT.

Same cities as 2016 & 2017, except I added Denver this year for those in the intermountain west.

Monthly anomalies, June - August, at these locations:

SEA
OLM
PDX
CQT (Downtown LA)
DEN
DCA
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#2
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 28 April 2018 - 05:30 AM

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What about Los Angeles and San Diego?
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#3
Deweydog

Posted 28 April 2018 - 09:31 AM

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Vegas? Branson? Havre? Galveston?
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#4
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 09:43 AM

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Lol, come on guys. Embrace the unknown!

BTW, this one actually will be graded. And updated monthly for good measure.
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#5
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 April 2018 - 11:19 AM

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Lol, come on guys. Embrace the unknown!

BTW, this one actually will be graded. And updated monthly for good measure.


Are there going to be any prizes?

#6
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 28 April 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Los Angeles is a complicated one, since downtown is usually 8-10 degrees warmer than the airport.

#7
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 01:01 PM

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Los Angeles is a complicated one, since downtown is usually 8-10 degrees warmer than the airport.


Sounds fun. Want me to replace EUG with LAX?
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#8
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 28 April 2018 - 01:12 PM

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Sounds fun. Want me to replace EUG with LAX?


Yes, that would be good.

#9
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 01:20 PM

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Yes, that would be good.


Cool, done and done.

I’ll have to do a bit of research now, but that’s what makes it interesting. 🤓
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#10
Eujunga

Posted 28 April 2018 - 02:54 PM

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I would argue that LAX is so heavily moderated by marine influence that it doesn't make for a very interesting summer forecast subject.  The upper air patterns don't have much effect on the summer temperatures there.  The spread between the warmest and coldest Augusts ever recorded is a measly 5 degrees.  I'd suggest Downtown L.A. for its greater temperature range, and for its better representation of SoCal basin weather in general.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#11
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 03:38 PM

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I would argue that LAX is so heavily moderated by marine influence that it doesn't make for a very interesting summer forecast subject. The upper air patterns don't have much effect on the summer temperatures there. The spread between the warmest and coldest Augusts ever recorded is a measly 5 degrees. I'd suggest Downtown L.A. for its greater temperature range, and for its better representation of SoCal basin weather in general.


What station would you recommend, specifically?
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#12
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 28 April 2018 - 03:49 PM

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What station would you recommend, specifically?


KCQT is the one for Downtown L.A.. No idea how it got those letters.
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#13
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 03:51 PM

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KCQT is the one for Downtown L.A.. No idea how it got those letters.


Alright, it’s in.

Good luck!
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#14
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 April 2018 - 04:01 PM

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Alright, it’s in.

Good luck!


How about adding PHX? It's a unique location and would test everybody's ability.

#15
Phil

Posted 28 April 2018 - 08:02 PM

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How about adding PHX? It's a unique location and would test everybody's ability.


Unless others disagree, I think there’s more than enough in there now. Loads of potential for experimentation. We have four western stations, one central station, and one eastern station listed, so I think it fits the balance of the forum too.
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#16
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 April 2018 - 08:16 PM

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Unless others disagree, I think there’s more than enough in there now. Loads of potential for experimentation. We have four western stations, one central station, and one eastern station listed, so I think it fits the balance of the forum too.


Okay sounds good.

#17
Eujunga

Posted 29 April 2018 - 07:13 AM

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KCQT is the one for Downtown L.A.. No idea how it got those letters.

 

Because it's near Hollywood, where legend has it that in the old days, you might see a cutie (C a QT) in the soda shop on the corner of Hollywood and Vine.

 

(Fun Fact:  Hollywood and Vine is an armpit nowadays.)


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#18
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 29 April 2018 - 03:53 PM

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Because it's near Hollywood, where legend has it that in the old days, you might see a cutie (C a QT) in the soda shop on the corner of Hollywood and Vine.

(Fun Fact: Hollywood and Vine is an armpit nowadays.)


I never knew that and that's hilarious. There are no shortage of cute or attractive women down there, that's for sure.

#19
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 29 April 2018 - 10:26 PM

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I'm going to wait until May 4th to post my final numbers for all the cities but I want to give a preview into what I'm thinking for the PNW for the summer months Jun to Aug.

Overall it should be another warmer than normal Jun to Aug time period. 2 out of the 3 months I have above average for all of the PNW. 1 month I have average with some parts of the PNW below average and some above average. There's a dividing line somewhere along the PNW. I'm not going to reveal the months yet and which month I feel will be the warmest but just wanted to give a little preview.
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#20
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 09:02 AM

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For anyone interested in observing/studying the data beforehand, here are the links to the *real time* observations at each station.

SEA: https://www.wrh.noaa...id=KSEA&num=168

OLM: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KOLM

PDX: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KPDX

CQT: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KCQT

DEN: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KDEN

DCA: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=Kdca
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#21
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 April 2018 - 11:44 AM

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For anyone interested in observing/studying the data beforehand, here are the links to the *real time* observations at each station.
SEA: https://www.wrh.noaa...id=KSEA&num=168
PDX: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KPDX
CQT: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KCQT
DEN: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KDEN
DCA: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=Kdca


That's not all of them.

#22
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:36 PM

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That's not all of them.


Sorry, just added Olympia.
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#23
Scott

Posted 30 April 2018 - 06:39 PM

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Monthly anomalies, May - September, at these locations:

SEA
OLM
PDX
CQT (Downtown LA)
DEN
DCA 

 

I'm not sure how much detail we are supposed to be predicting, but here are my predictions:

 

SEA, OLM, and PDX will have a warmer and drier summer than normal. 

CQX will also be warmer than normal, but since it's already extremely dry there in summer, there isn't much that can be said as far as it being even drier than average.   I'll go with average precipitation.

DEN will be fairly normal as far as temperature and precipitation goes, but it will be warmer than average.   The monsoon may get a late start, but should be closer to average as the summer progresses.

DCA will be wetter than average, but a little warmer than average (but not that much).


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#24
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 06:45 PM

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I'm not sure how much detail we are supposed to be predicting, but here are my predictions:

SEA, OLM, and PDX will have a warmer and drier summer than normal.

CQX will also be warmer than normal, but since it's already extremely dry there in summer, there isn't much that can be said as far as it being even drier than average. I'll go with average precipitation.

DEN will be fairly normal as far as temperature and precipitation goes, but it will be warmer than average. The monsoon may get a late start, but should be closer to average as the summer progresses.

DCA will be wetter than average, but a little warmer than average (but not that much).


Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

We usually guess the departure from average for each month at each location (in fahrenheit) then see who came the closest overall in the end. I’m still thinking about mine, as I’ve never forecasted for Denver or LA before.
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#25
Scott

Posted 30 April 2018 - 06:57 PM

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We usually guess the departure from average for each month at each location (in fahrenheit) then see who came the closest overall in the end. 

 

 

OK cool.  Rounded to the nearest 10th I presume?  I'm going with the warm side of things, but not record breaking heat in all locations mentioned.  

 

June

 

SEA = +1.0

OLM = +1.1
PDX = +1.3
CQT (Downtown LA) = +2.0
DEN = +1.4
DCA = +1.0

 

July 
 

SEA = +1.2

OLM = +1.2
PDX = +1.5
CQT (Downtown LA) = +2.0
DEN = +1.2
DCA = +1.0

 

August

SEA = +1.1

OLM = +1.2
PDX = +1.3
CQT (Downtown LA) = +1.9
DEN = +1.2
DCA = +0.9


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   11.01 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   38.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   10/6


#26
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 07:06 PM

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Awesome, good luck brother. I’ll drum mine up sometime tomorrow or Wednesday.
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#27
Phil

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:27 AM

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A little local factoid, regarding early-season DCA anomalies. Usually best to hedge lower in June.

The one good thing about the DC/DCA area during the spring/early summer is the cooling effect of the Bay/River breezes.

For example, right now, DCA is 84*F with S/SE winds, while IAD is 88*F with W/NW winds.

https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=Kdca
https://www.wrh.noaa...id=KIAD&num=168

And as usual, I’m stuck in between. But since I’m located west of the Fall Line on the downslope, the W/NW winds are winning out here, and it’s 90*F as a result. 😫

https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

It always takes forever for the Bay/River breeze to get here in the afternoon, and when it does (usually ~ 4PM) it’s too late to have much cooling effect. And once we’re into the dog days of summer, there is no cooling effect..only a humidity bump. Lol.
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#28
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:34 PM

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Awesome, good luck brother. I’ll drum mine up sometime tomorrow or Wednesday.


I will throw something together too once finals are over. After tomorrow.
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#29
Phil

Posted 03 May 2018 - 08:37 AM

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Have a rough idea now. Will post when I get home tonight.
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#30
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 03 May 2018 - 08:04 PM

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Pretty much all done with my numbers except for DCA. Going to work on them tonight and tomorrow before my submission.

#31
Phil

Posted 03 May 2018 - 09:19 PM

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Pretty much all done with my numbers except for DCA. Going to work on them tonight and tomorrow before my submission.


Same here, except it’s CQT that’s giving me issues in my analog years. No consistency. Looks like I’ll have to try and predict how the coastal SSTAs will evolve to be successful with it.

Will be done with my numbers by tomorrow for sure.
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#32
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 04 May 2018 - 05:22 AM

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East Coast can have a marine layer too with low clouds and fog. Just not as persistent and famous as California's marine layer.

#33
Phil

Posted 04 May 2018 - 09:01 AM

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East Coast can have a marine layer too with low clouds and fog. Just not as persistent and famous as California's marine layer.


Yeah, sometimes we get it during April/May, but with the Atlantic downstream it’s more difficult. We’ve only had one such episode this year, though..too much troughing and/or westerly flow in general w/ the Hudson Bay vortex.

And once into mid/late summer, our coastal SSTs are usually into the 70s/80s (into the 90s over the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac). So at that point, the “marine layer” is really just a pool of low level humidity, since said SSTs will often be warmer than the antecedent air temperatures.
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#34
Phil

Posted 04 May 2018 - 02:17 PM

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Subject to minor changes.

SEA
June: -0.2
July: +2.5
August: -0.75
OLM
June: -0.75
July: +1.5
August: -1
PDX
June: 0.0
July: +2
August: -0.5
CQT
June: +1.5
July: +2.5
August: 0.0
DEN
June: +2.5
July: +1
August: 0.0
DCA
June: +2
July: 0.0
August: +2.75
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#35
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 04 May 2018 - 02:53 PM

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Subject to minor changes.

SEA
June: -0.2
July: +2.5
August: -0.75
OLM
June: -0.75
July: +1.5
August: -1
PDX
June: 0.0
July: +2
August: -0.5
CQT
June: +1.5
July: +2.5
August: 0.0
DEN
June: +2.5
July: +1
August: 0.0
DCA
June: +2
July: 0.0
August: +2.75

 

Here's mine at the moment. I'll look over the analog(s) again I'm using and will make some minor adjustments as well if I need to.

 

SEA
June: -0.5
July: +3.6
August: +3.3

 

OLM
June: -0.1
July: +3.8
August: +2.9

 

PDX
June: +0.4
July: +3.9
August: +2.5

 

CQT
June: +1.7
July: +3.7
August: +3.0

 

DEN
June: +3.5
July: +1.9
August: +1.0

 

DCA
June: +1.0
July: -1.3
August: +0.1


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#36
Jesse

Posted 04 May 2018 - 09:44 PM

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Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? :lol:


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#37
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 04 May 2018 - 09:45 PM

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Tweaked a few numbers and here is my final submission. Good luck to all those that participated!

SEA
June: -0.5
July: +3.6
August: +3.3

OLM
June: -0.1
July: +3.8
August: +2.9

PDX
June: +0.3
July: +4.0
August: +2.5

CQT
June: +1.7
July: +3.7
August: +3.0

DEN
June: +3.5
July: +1.8
August: +1.0

DCA
June: +1.0
July: -1.3
August: +0.1
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#38
Phil

Posted 04 May 2018 - 11:42 PM

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Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? :lol:


Scott participated!

But yeah, lots of scaredy cats this year.
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#39
Phil

Posted 04 May 2018 - 11:45 PM

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Feel free to enter guesses over the weekend, BTW.

No need for an arbitrary deadline for a seasonal forecast contest. We’re talking months here.
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#40
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 05 May 2018 - 08:38 AM

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Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? :lol:

Scott participated!

But yeah, lots of scaredy cats this year.


Yeah Scott participated so at least there's somebody else other than the 3 of us.

Mr Marine Layer, Deweydog, Eujunga, you all posted in this thread so why not enter the contest? I know it's hard to go first so at least now you have seen a few of our thoughts. Let's go!
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#41
Deweydog

Posted 05 May 2018 - 07:45 PM

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Too many stations.

Too lazy.

Too stupid.

I think our summer will be pretty average overall. July will prolly be pretty warm. August icebox killer (been watching Dexter).

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#42
BLI snowman

Posted 05 May 2018 - 07:52 PM

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We started doing this in 2016, so why not continue the tradition? If anyone is interested, feel free to post a guess by May 5th @ 12AM PDT.

Same cities as 2016 & 2017, except I added Denver this year for those in the intermountain west.

Monthly anomalies, June - August, at these locations:

SEA
OLM
PDX
CQT (Downtown LA)
DEN
DCA

 

SEA:

 

J: -0.8

J: +2.1

A: +3.2

 

OLM:

 

J: -1.4

J: +1.5

A:+1.8

 

PDX

 

J: +0.1

J: +3.3

A: +3.9

 

CQT:

 

J: -1.3

J: +0.4

A: +1.0

 

DEN:

 

J; +3.6

J: +1.4

A: -0.2

 

DCA:

 

J: +1.9

J; +0.7

A: +1.3


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#43
BLI snowman

Posted 05 May 2018 - 07:53 PM

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August will be warm and dry. 

 

August is the new January.



#44
Jesse

Posted 06 May 2018 - 09:06 PM

Jesse

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SEA:

 

J: +1.1

J: +2.1

A: +3.1

 

OLM:

 

J: +0.5

J: +1.5

A: +2.5

 

PDX

 

J: +1.0

J: +2.0

A: +3.0

 

CQT:

 

J:  0.0

J: +1.0

A: +2.0

 

DEN:

 

J; +3

J: +1.5

A: -1.0

 

DCA:

 

J: +1.0

J: -1.0

A: 0.0


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#45
Deweydog

Posted 06 May 2018 - 09:22 PM

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Alright, here it goes...

SEA

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

OLM

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

PDX

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

CQT

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

DEN

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

DCA

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#46
Jesse

Posted 06 May 2018 - 09:42 PM

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Alright, here it goes...

SEA

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

OLM

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

PDX

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

CQT

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

DEN

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0

DCA

J: 0
J: 0
A: 0


I came *this* close to doing the exact same thing. :lol:

I am also flattered that it took me joining to get you to finally enter. :wub:

#47
Front Ranger

Posted 06 May 2018 - 09:45 PM

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I may enter this soon.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#48
Phil

Posted 06 May 2018 - 09:51 PM

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I may enter this soon.


Just don’t get beat on your home turf (DEN). :P
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#49
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 07 May 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Now that we got some more submissions I can reveal the analog year I put the most weight into my predictions. Phil or anybody else, care to guess what that year is?

#50
Phil

Posted 07 May 2018 - 11:02 AM

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Now that we got some more submissions I can reveal the analog year I put the most weight into my predictions. Phil or anybody else, care to guess what that year is?


You’re relying on one analog year?

Since there are several years that match your outlined temperature progression, I’m guessing it’s a +PDO year near/just after solar maximum. Something like 2014, or maybe 1996 if you’re trying to factor in solar minimum.
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