Jump to content

Summer forecast contest, year three.


Phil

Recommended Posts

We started doing this in 2016, so why not continue the tradition? If anyone is interested, feel free to post a guess by May 5th @ 12AM PDT.

 

Same cities as 2016 & 2017, except I added Denver this year for those in the intermountain west.

 

Monthly anomalies, June - August, at these locations:

 

SEA

OLM

PDX

CQT (Downtown LA)

DEN

DCA

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol, come on guys. Embrace the unknown!

 

BTW, this one actually will be graded. And updated monthly for good measure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Los Angeles is a complicated one, since downtown is usually 8-10 degrees warmer than the airport.

Sounds fun. Want me to replace EUG with LAX?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would argue that LAX is so heavily moderated by marine influence that it doesn't make for a very interesting summer forecast subject. The upper air patterns don't have much effect on the summer temperatures there. The spread between the warmest and coldest Augusts ever recorded is a measly 5 degrees. I'd suggest Downtown L.A. for its greater temperature range, and for its better representation of SoCal basin weather in general.

What station would you recommend, specifically?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

KCQT is the one for Downtown L.A.. No idea how it got those letters.

Alright, it’s in.

 

Good luck!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How about adding PHX? It's a unique location and would test everybody's ability.

Unless others disagree, I think there’s more than enough in there now. Loads of potential for experimentation. We have four western stations, one central station, and one eastern station listed, so I think it fits the balance of the forum too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Because it's near Hollywood, where legend has it that in the old days, you might see a cutie (C a QT) in the soda shop on the corner of Hollywood and Vine.

 

(Fun Fact: Hollywood and Vine is an armpit nowadays.)

I never knew that and that's hilarious. There are no shortage of cute or attractive women down there, that's for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to wait until May 4th to post my final numbers for all the cities but I want to give a preview into what I'm thinking for the PNW for the summer months Jun to Aug.

 

Overall it should be another warmer than normal Jun to Aug time period. 2 out of the 3 months I have above average for all of the PNW. 1 month I have average with some parts of the PNW below average and some above average. There's a dividing line somewhere along the PNW. I'm not going to reveal the months yet and which month I feel will be the warmest but just wanted to give a little preview.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's not all of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Monthly anomalies, May - September, at these locations:

 

SEA

OLM

PDX

CQT (Downtown LA)

DEN

DCA 

 

I'm not sure how much detail we are supposed to be predicting, but here are my predictions:

 

SEA, OLM, and PDX will have a warmer and drier summer than normal. 

 

CQX will also be warmer than normal, but since it's already extremely dry there in summer, there isn't much that can be said as far as it being even drier than average.   I'll go with average precipitation.

 

DEN will be fairly normal as far as temperature and precipitation goes, but it will be warmer than average.   The monsoon may get a late start, but should be closer to average as the summer progresses.

 

DCA will be wetter than average, but a little warmer than average (but not that much).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure how much detail we are supposed to be predicting, but here are my predictions:

 

SEA, OLM, and PDX will have a warmer and drier summer than normal.

 

CQX will also be warmer than normal, but since it's already extremely dry there in summer, there isn't much that can be said as far as it being even drier than average. I'll go with average precipitation.

 

DEN will be fairly normal as far as temperature and precipitation goes, but it will be warmer than average. The monsoon may get a late start, but should be closer to average as the summer progresses.

 

DCA will be wetter than average, but a little warmer than average (but not that much).

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

 

We usually guess the departure from average for each month at each location (in fahrenheit) then see who came the closest overall in the end. I’m still thinking about mine, as I’ve never forecasted for Denver or LA before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We usually guess the departure from average for each month at each location (in fahrenheit) then see who came the closest overall in the end. 

 

 

OK cool.  Rounded to the nearest 10th I presume?  I'm going with the warm side of things, but not record breaking heat in all locations mentioned.  

 

June

 

SEA = +1.0

OLM = +1.1

PDX = +1.3

CQT (Downtown LA) = +2.0

DEN = +1.4

DCA = +1.0

 

July 

 

SEA = +1.2

OLM = +1.2

PDX = +1.5

CQT (Downtown LA) = +2.0

DEN = +1.2

DCA = +1.0

 

August

 

SEA = +1.1

OLM = +1.2

PDX = +1.3

CQT (Downtown LA) = +1.9

DEN = +1.2

DCA = +0.9

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty much all done with my numbers except for DCA. Going to work on them tonight and tomorrow before my submission.

Same here, except it’s CQT that’s giving me issues in my analog years. No consistency. Looks like I’ll have to try and predict how the coastal SSTAs will evolve to be successful with it.

 

Will be done with my numbers by tomorrow for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

East Coast can have a marine layer too with low clouds and fog. Just not as persistent and famous as California's marine layer.

Yeah, sometimes we get it during April/May, but with the Atlantic downstream it’s more difficult. We’ve only had one such episode this year, though..too much troughing and/or westerly flow in general w/ the Hudson Bay vortex.

 

And once into mid/late summer, our coastal SSTs are usually into the 70s/80s (into the 90s over the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac). So at that point, the “marine layer” is really just a pool of low level humidity, since said SSTs will often be warmer than the antecedent air temperatures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subject to minor changes.

 

SEA

June: -0.2

July: +2.5

August: -0.75

OLM

June: -0.75

July: +1.5

August: -1

PDX

June: 0.0

July: +2

August: -0.5

CQT

June: +1.5

July: +2.5

August: 0.0

DEN

June: +2.5

July: +1

August: 0.0

DCA

June: +2

July: 0.0

August: +2.75

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subject to minor changes.

 

SEA

June: -0.2

July: +2.5

August: -0.75

OLM

June: -0.75

July: +1.5

August: -1

PDX

June: 0.0

July: +2

August: -0.5

CQT

June: +1.5

July: +2.5

August: 0.0

DEN

June: +2.5

July: +1

August: 0.0

DCA

June: +2

July: 0.0

August: +2.75

 

Here's mine at the moment. I'll look over the analog(s) again I'm using and will make some minor adjustments as well if I need to.

 

SEA

June: -0.5

July: +3.6

August: +3.3

 

OLM

June: -0.1

July: +3.8

August: +2.9

 

PDX

June: +0.4

July: +3.9

August: +2.5

 

CQT

June: +1.7

July: +3.7

August: +3.0

 

DEN

June: +3.5

July: +1.9

August: +1.0

 

DCA

June: +1.0

July: -1.3

August: +0.1

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tweaked a few numbers and here is my final submission. Good luck to all those that participated!

 

SEA

June: -0.5

July: +3.6

August: +3.3

 

OLM

June: -0.1

July: +3.8

August: +2.9

 

PDX

June: +0.3

July: +4.0

August: +2.5

 

CQT

June: +1.7

July: +3.7

August: +3.0

 

DEN

June: +3.5

July: +1.8

August: +1.0

 

DCA

June: +1.0

July: -1.3

August: +0.1

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? :lol:

Scott participated!

 

But yeah, lots of scaredy cats this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feel free to enter guesses over the weekend, BTW.

 

No need for an arbitrary deadline for a seasonal forecast contest. We’re talking months here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it just going to be me, Phil and heatsquall again? :lol:

Scott participated!

 

But yeah, lots of scaredy cats this year.

Yeah Scott participated so at least there's somebody else other than the 3 of us.

 

Mr Marine Layer, Deweydog, Eujunga, you all posted in this thread so why not enter the contest? I know it's hard to go first so at least now you have seen a few of our thoughts. Let's go!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We started doing this in 2016, so why not continue the tradition? If anyone is interested, feel free to post a guess by May 5th @ 12AM PDT.

 

Same cities as 2016 & 2017, except I added Denver this year for those in the intermountain west.

 

Monthly anomalies, June - August, at these locations:

 

SEA

OLM

PDX

CQT (Downtown LA)

DEN

DCA

 

SEA:

 

J: -0.8

J: +2.1

A: +3.2

 

OLM:

 

J: -1.4

J: +1.5

A:+1.8

 

PDX

 

J: +0.1

J: +3.3

A: +3.9

 

CQT:

 

J: -1.3

J: +0.4

A: +1.0

 

DEN:

 

J; +3.6

J: +1.4

A: -0.2

 

DCA:

 

J: +1.9

J; +0.7

A: +1.3

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...