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Summer forecast contest, year three.

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#51
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 07 May 2018 - 11:54 AM

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You’re relying on one analog year?

Since there are several years that match your outlined temperature progression, I’m guessing it’s a +PDO year near/just after solar maximum. Something like 2014, or maybe 1996 if you’re trying to factor in solar minimum.


Bingo, you got it, 1996.

Yeah I'm pretty much relying on this one year. What I did was take a look at all the La Nina years and see if any of them matched the weather it received for April of that year to this years. There was one that really intrigued me and it was 1996. It's not an exact match but close enough. The Oceanic Niño Index for that year also matched this year's progression. Both 1996 and 2018 peaked in the NDJ time with an ONI value of -1.0 and then to -0.9, -0.8 and -0.6 subsequent months.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

From 1996 to 2018 there's been about a general increase of +1.0 temperatures here in the PNW based on Mark's blog post where he pointed this out so I factored that in with my final numbers. I also weighed in some seasonal lag to put it all together. I have no idea how my forecast will play out but I really wanted to use analogs and not any of the seasonal forecast that I've seen recently.

1m8flbEsvU.png
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#52
Phil

Posted 07 May 2018 - 01:10 PM

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Not saying you’re wrong, but sometimes the large scale 500mv pattern tells you more than regional temps. And sometimes it doesn’t, lol.

FWIW, there were some pretty significant differences across the NH (including opposite NAOs and PNAs) between the two. Whether or not that means anything now isn’t clear. Or at least it’s not clear to me.

smXI7qi.png

Sxm2N4R.png
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#53
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 07 May 2018 - 06:15 PM

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Not saying you’re wrong, but sometimes the large scale 500mv pattern tells you more than regional temps. And sometimes it doesn’t, lol.

FWIW, there were some pretty significant differences across the NH (including opposite NAOs and PNAs) between the two. Whether or not that means anything now isn’t clear. Or at least it’s not clear to me.

smXI7qi.png

Sxm2N4R.png


Yeah, at first I was hesitant to use the 96 analog because that year May was pretty cool compared to normal but I just based that on some seasonal lag. A few days ago models were showing a shift to more troughing the 2nd half of May here in the PNW and they are still showing the same general idea right now. So my thinking is the pattern evolution is delayed by 1-2 weeks at the moment. Right off the bat we are going to find out what will happen in May and if the 96 analog stays on point. Or maybe we are just headed into a warmer 96 pattern but that will mean July and August will have to torch here in the PNW.

ecmwf_eps_pna_2018050712.png

#54
Phil

Posted 08 May 2018 - 06:26 AM

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Will be an interesting pattern to follow, either way.

I’m also thinking hot July. Both based on the periodicity of this year’s AAM/MJO cycle. And also because I’ll be there in July. Death ridges follow me everywhere I go during the warm season.
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#55
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 08 May 2018 - 08:38 AM

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Below average sea surface temperature could make the west coast locations a challenge.

 

SEA

 J: -0.2
 J: 0.5
 A: 1.0

 

OLM

 J: 0.4
 J: 0.8
 A: 1.5

 

PDX

 J: 0.5
 J: 0.9
 A: 1.6

 

CQT

 J: -0.2
 J: 0.8
 A: 1.3

 

DEN

 J: 1.2
 J: 1.7
 A: 1.9

 

DCA

 J: 1.5
 J: 2.2
 A: 1.8



#56
Front Ranger

Posted 08 May 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Will be an interesting pattern to follow, either way.

I’m also thinking hot July. Both based on the periodicity of this year’s AAM/MJO cycle. And also because I’ll be there in July. Death ridges follow me everywhere I go during the warm season.


I remember that Hippa Island death ridge last summer.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#57
Phil

Posted 08 May 2018 - 11:15 AM

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I remember that Hippa Island death ridge last summer.


Lol, it was actually perfect timing. I wasn’t in the PNW long enough to experience it, but the biggest heat/ridging started right on my departure date in early August and lasted into September.

The Phil effect.
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#58
Front Ranger

Posted 08 May 2018 - 12:09 PM

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Lol, it was actually perfect timing. I wasn’t in the PNW long enough to experience it, but the biggest heat/ridging started right on my departure date in early August and lasted into September.

The Phil effect.

 

Ah, so sometimes there's a lag.  ;)


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#59
Front Ranger

Posted 10 May 2018 - 08:28 PM

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Still working up motivation.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#60
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 10:38 AM

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Feel free to add/edit guesses for another 10 days or so.

The deadline I put in was stupid. No way anyone can make a seasonal forecast in just one week.
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#61
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 16 May 2018 - 12:59 PM

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Feel free to add/edit guesses for another 10 days or so.

The deadline I put in was stupid. No way anyone can make a seasonal forecast in just one week.


Sounds good. I was getting concerned about my June forecast for the PNW. Probably won't make any major changes but this will give me a chance to look over more data.

Gives time for more people to join too.

#62
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 May 2018 - 03:49 PM

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General Rex Block pattern does not seem to go away any time soon. If I knew about this, I would have estimated lower with the June average for KCQT.

#63
Phil

Posted 16 May 2018 - 07:45 PM

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General Rex Block pattern does not seem to go away any time soon. If I knew about this, I would have estimated lower with the June average for KCQT.


Feel free to edit.

We’re talking months here. A lot can/will change between now and then.
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#64
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 23 May 2018 - 09:43 AM

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Revising my estimates due to this endless cool pattern (May averaging colder than January for the highs so far for KCQT)

SEA
J: 0.4
J: 0.5
A: 0.9

OLM
J: 0.9
J: 0.8
A: 1.3

PDX
J: 0.4
J: 1.2
A: 1.8

CQT
J: -0.5
J: 0.2
A: 0.3

DEN
J: 0.5
J: 1.2
A: 1.4

DCA
J: 2.8
J: 3.2
A: 2.5
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#65
Phil

Posted 25 May 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Feel free to add/edit numbers through the Memorial Day weekend. I might tweak mine a bit.
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#66
ShawniganLake

Posted 26 May 2018 - 06:42 AM

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SEA

J: 1.5
J: 2.5
A: 1

OLM

J: 1
J: 2
A: 1

PDX

J: 1
J: 2
A: 1

CQT

J: 1
J: 1
A: 1

DEN

J: 1
J: 1
A: 1

DCA

J: -1
J: 1
A: 2
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#67
Front Ranger

Posted 26 May 2018 - 12:34 PM

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June

 

SEA: +.5
OLM: -.5
PDX: 0
CQT: +1
DEN: +2.5
DCA: +1.5

 

July

 

SEA: +1.5

OLM: +.5
PDX: +1
CQT: -1
DEN: 0
DCA: 0

 

August

 

SEA: +2

OLM: +1.5
PDX: +2
CQT: +1.5
DEN: +.5
DCA: +.5


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#68
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 May 2018 - 08:52 PM

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Made some minor adjustments to my forecast. Still thinking an average June for the PNW but nudged all the stations up by +0.3. July and August I still see warmer/hotter than normal for the PNW. Only reason I have August a little cooler is because towards the mid/end of the month I see a pattern change to cooler weather. If we had to make a September forecast I'd go around -1.0 to -2.0.

SEA
June: -0.2
July: +3.8
August: +3.3

OLM
June: +0.2
July: +4.0
August: +3.1

PDX
June: +0.6
July: +4.2
August: +2.9

CQT
June: +1.5
July: +3.5
August: +2.7

DEN
June: +3.4
July: +1.5
August: +1.2

DCA
June: +0.5
July: -1.8
August: -0.4
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#69
TT-SEA

Posted 28 May 2018 - 09:09 PM

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SEA
J: 1.4
J: 2.5
A: 0.5

OLM
J: 0.8
J: 2.1
A: 0.0

PDX
J: 1.0
J: 2.3
A: 0.3

CQT
J: -1.0
J: 0.5
A: 0.8

DEN
J: 3.1
J: 0.8
A: 1.0

DCA
J: 0.5
J: 0.8
A: 2.0 


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#70
Phil

Posted 28 May 2018 - 09:30 PM

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Updated:

SEA
June: -0.25
July: +2.5
August: 0.0

OLM
June: -0.5
July: +1.5
August: -0.25

PDX
June: -0.25
July: +2
August: 0.0

CQT
June: +1.5
July: +2.5
August: +0.5

DEN
June: +2
July: +0.75
August: +0.75

DCA
June: +1
July: +1
August: +2
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#71
Phil

Posted 28 May 2018 - 09:32 PM

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Again, here are the links to track each station in real time:

SEA: https://www.wrh.noaa...id=KSEA&num=168

OLM: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KOLM

PDX: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KPDX

CQT: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KCQT

DEN: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=KDEN

DCA: https://www.wrh.noaa...xt.php?sid=Kdca
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#72
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 06:49 PM

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All guesses need to be submitted by 12AM PDT tonight.

Might tweak mine one last time.
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#73
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 31 May 2018 - 10:54 PM

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All guesses need to be submitted by 12AM PDT tonight.

Might tweak mine one last time.


Tweaked mine one last time. Mainly to account for OLM being colder than SEA which I didn't know.

SEA
June: +0.2
July: +4.0
August: +3.3

OLM
June: -0.2
July: +3.8
August: +3.1

PDX
June: +0.6
July: +4.2
August: +2.9

CQT
June: +1.5
July: +3.5
August: +2.7

DEN
June: +3.4
July: +1.5
August: +1.2

DCA
June: +0.5
July: -1.8
August: -0.4

#74
Phil

Posted 01 June 2018 - 10:47 AM

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All guesses have been screen-shotted and stored in Microsoft excel. Good luck everyone!
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#75
Deweydog

Posted 01 June 2018 - 04:20 PM

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Zero departure at PDX today. I'm rocking this b*tch!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#76
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2018 - 07:30 PM

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Zero departure at PDX today. I'm rocking this b*tch!


http://w2.weather.go...sid=PDX&pil=CLI

#77
Deweydog

Posted 01 June 2018 - 07:37 PM

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http://w2.weather.go...sid=PDX&pil=CLI


f***** **** mother****** cock s**t ******* ***** f***er!!!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#78
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 June 2018 - 08:32 PM

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Departures after day 1.

SEA: -1
OLM: -3
PDX: +1
CQT: 0
DEN: +12
DCA: +10
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#79
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2018 - 09:04 PM

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91 days to go!

#80
Front Ranger

Posted 02 June 2018 - 05:28 AM

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DEN will probably end up +8.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#81
Phil

Posted 02 June 2018 - 07:32 AM

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It’s amazing how Denver have highs in the 90s with lows in the 40s.

When DCA hits 90*F in the afternoon, they seldom drop below 70*F at night, and sometimes struggle to drop below 80*F.
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#82
weatherfan2012

Posted 03 June 2018 - 10:57 AM

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It’s amazing how Denver have highs in the 90s with lows in the 40s.
When DCA hits 90*F in the afternoon, they seldom drop below 70*F at night, and sometimes struggle to drop below 80*F.

yeah amazing that in Denver you be out in summer clothes doing the day but warring jackets or coats at night :lol: but would give a wonderful break from the heat and likey fantastic evenings.

#83
Jesse

Posted 03 June 2018 - 01:08 PM

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89 days to go!

#84
Scott

Posted 04 June 2018 - 04:25 PM

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It’s amazing how Denver have highs in the 90s with lows in the 40s.
When DCA hits 90*F in the afternoon, they seldom drop below 70*F at night, and sometimes struggle to drop below 80*F.

 

 

Denver has smaller diurnal changes than much of Colorado.  Freezing to 90's isn't that uncommon where I live.  Places like Alamosa and Gunnison can have some big diunral changes as well.  Anywhere in an exposed valley floor in Colorado is going to have larger diurnal changes than Denver.

 

Anyway, we haven't had any big diurnal changes this month yet, but June is a good month for them.

 

Thus far this month though, all days have had dirunal changes only between 38-51 degrees, but the month is just beginning and I'd expect at least some of them to be close to the 60 degree range by month's end.

Attached File  crj.JPG   72.96KB   0 downloads

 

Update:  Today's range at the official station was 39 to 89, so still no big diurnal days yet this month.


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   7.89 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   


#85
Phil

Posted 04 June 2018 - 08:17 PM

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Lol, 39 to 89 in the summer would be unprecedented here. We simply have too much moisture in the air for that kind of diurnal cycle. In July/August, we sometimes struggle to even drop 10*F at night.

And our winters are dominated by gusty downsloping winds, so it keeps our nights warmish as well, at least relative to places west of the apps.
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#86
TT-SEA

Posted 05 June 2018 - 05:27 AM

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Lol, 39 to 89 in the summer would be unprecedented here. We simply have too much moisture in the air for that kind of diurnal cycle. In July/August, we sometimes struggle to even drop 10*F at night.

And our winters are dominated by gusty downsloping winds, so it keeps our nights warmish as well, at least relative to places west of the apps.

 

Obviously those are massive diurnal changes for most everywhere in the country... Scott is aware of that as well.    ;)



#87
Scott

Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:48 AM

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Obviously those are massive diurnal changes for most everywhere in the country... Scott is aware of that as well.  

 

 

Compared to the Eastern US, or the West Coast, yes, but not really for much of the interior West.   All of the Western states have locations where 50 degree diurnal changes are very common.    Most of them aren't major cities, but Reno is an exception.

 

There are literally hundreds of stations out west where 50 degree diurnal changes are  very common.  More than 60 degrees is less common, but 50 degrees isn't unusual at all.  All Western states have such locations.   Oregon has Seneca, Idaho has Stanley, California has Bodie, Nevada has Elko, Utah has Ibapah, New Mexico has Galivan, Colorado has Alamosa, Wyoming has Basin, etc., etc.  

Even at the airport here (nights are cooler at my house than at the airport), the average July high is 88 and the average low 46.  Cloudy days and nights have less diurnal changes (30 degrees), but clear days are often in the 50-60 degree range, so the average balances out to 42 degrees on an "average" day.  Since nights are cooler at the house, the average range is about 48 degrees.

 

There are several other places out West that have similar diurnal changes.  50 degrees isn't a massive diurnal change for an interior location in the Interior West.  It may be "massive" for the West Coast or most areas east of the Rockies, but not in the Interior West.

 


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   7.89 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   


#88
TT-SEA

Posted 05 June 2018 - 07:12 AM

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Compared to the Eastern US, or the West Coast, yes, but not really for much of the interior West.   All of the Western states have locations where 50 degree diurnal changes are very common.    Most of them aren't major cities, but Reno is an exception.

 

There are literally hundreds of stations out west where 50 degree diurnal changes are  very common.  More than 60 degrees is less common, but 50 degrees isn't unusual at all.  All Western states have such locations.   Oregon has Seneca, Idaho has Stanley, California has Bodie, Nevada has Elko, Utah has Ibapah, New Mexico has Galivan, Colorado has Alamosa, Wyoming has Basin, etc., etc.  

Even at the airport here (nights are cooler at my house than at the airport), the average July high is 88 and the average low 46.  Cloudy days and nights have less diurnal changes (30 degrees), but clear days are often in the 50-60 degree range, so the average balances out to 42 degrees on an "average" day.  Since nights are cooler at the house, the average range is about 48 degrees.

 

There are several other places out West that have similar diurnal changes.  50 degrees isn't a massive diurnal change for an interior location in the Interior West.  It may be "massive" for the West Coast or most areas east of the Rockies, but not in the Interior West.

 

 

I understand.

 

But those are huge diurnal changes for places where most of us live.   And where most people live in the country. 



#89
Jesse

Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Large diurnal temp ranges make me mad!

#90
Phil

Posted 05 June 2018 - 10:23 AM

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Obviously those are massive diurnal changes for most everywhere in the country... Scott is aware of that as well. ;)


Doesn’t make it any less fascinating, though. I’d love to wake up to subfreezing temperatures, go on a morning run as they warm into the 50s/60s, and spend the afternoon in the thin, super-dry 90*F air.

It wouldn’t even feel hot, given the higher altitude and very low specific humidity. I could probably enjoy a 100*F afternoon up there, where-as I can barely stomach highs in the upper 80’s here.
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#91
Scott

Posted 05 June 2018 - 10:38 AM

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 Freezing to 90's isn't that uncommon where I live. 

 

 

I’d love to wake up to subfreezing temperatures, go on a morning run as they warm into the 50s/60s, and spend the afternoon in the thin, super-dry 90*F air.

 

 

 

(Updated)

 

It happen today.   It was 32 this morning at home and the 12:30 and 12:35 PM official temperatures were 90F:

 

https://forecast.wea...94#.WxbadO4vzIU

 

If it stays clear, it could rise a few degrees more in the afternoon.


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   7.89 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   


#92
Deweydog

Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:01 PM

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Large diurnal temp ranges make me mad!


Ok, Dewey.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#93
Jesse

Posted 05 June 2018 - 01:51 PM

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Ok, Dewey.


Sure Jesse.

#94
Scott

Posted 05 June 2018 - 05:26 PM

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The official high was 92 today.  The 39 to 89 yesterday doesn't look so impressive now compared to today's 32 to 92 (36 to 92 at the airport).


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   7.89 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   


#95
Scott

Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:39 PM

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For official weather stations at least, Lamar had us beat by one degree (for diurnal change).   47 to 104.

 

 

Attached Files


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high)

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   7.89 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches

 

Last frost of early summer:  7/1

 

First frost of late summer:  8/29

 

Last snow of late spring:  5/1 

 

First snow of early fall:   


#96
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:41 PM

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Unofficial departures through June 5. Now I know what everybody was talking about with OLM having cooler departures compared to SEA. OLM has had 4 negative departure days so far, SEA has had 2 and PDX only 1.

SEA: (-1,7,-1,0,0)/5 = +1
OLM: (-3,7,-2,-2,-4)/5 = -0.8
PDX:(1,7,2,0,-1)/5 = +1.8
CQT: (0,3,3,2,1)/5 = +1.8
DEN: (10,-1,1,11,14)/5 = +7
DCA: (10,9,-5,-4,1)/5 = +2.2

#97
Jesse

Posted 06 June 2018 - 07:45 AM

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Unofficial departures through June 5. Now I know what everybody was talking about with OLM having cooler departures compared to SEA. OLM has had 4 negative departure days so far, SEA has had 2 and PDX only 1.

SEA: (-1,7,-1,0,0)/5 = +1
OLM: (-3,7,-2,-2,-4)/5 = -0.8
PDX:(1,7,2,0,-1)/5 = +1.8
CQT: (0,3,3,2,1)/5 = +1.8
DEN: (10,-1,1,11,14)/5 = +7
DCA: (10,9,-5,-4,1)/5 = +2.2


These numbers are not accurate.

#98
Phil

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:28 AM

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SEA +0.9
OLM -1.1
PDX +1.5
CQT: +1.3
DEN: +6.7
DCA +1.8

A shame SEA/PDX appear to be ruined by UHI.
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#99
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:34 AM

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These numbers are not accurate.


How do you calculate the numbers?

#100
Phil

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:43 AM

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How do you calculate the numbers?


They’re calculated on the local NWS climate page for each location/station.
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