Summer forecast contest, year three.

[BLI snowman]

August will be warm and dry. 

 

August is the new January.

[Jesse]

SEA:

 

J: +1.1

J: +2.1

A: +3.1

 

OLM:

 

J: +0.5

J: +1.5

A: +2.5

 

PDX

 

J: +1.0

J: +2.0

A: +3.0

 

CQT:

 

J:  0.0

J: +1.0

A: +2.0

 

DEN:

 

J; +3

J: +1.5

A: -1.0

 

DCA:

 

J: +1.0

J: -1.0

A: 0.0

[Deweydog]

Alright, here it goes...

 

SEA

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

OLM

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

PDX

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

CQT

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

DEN

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

DCA

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

[Jesse]

Alright, here it goes...

 

SEA

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

OLM

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

PDX

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

CQT

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

DEN

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

 

DCA

 

J: 0

J: 0

A: 0

I came *this* close to doing the exact same thing.

 

I am also flattered that it took me joining to get you to finally enter.

[Front Ranger]

I may enter this soon.

[Phil]

I may enter this soon.

Just don’t get beat on your home turf (DEN).

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Now that we got some more submissions I can reveal the analog year I put the most weight into my predictions. Phil or anybody else, care to guess what that year is?

[Phil]

Now that we got some more submissions I can reveal the analog year I put the most weight into my predictions. Phil or anybody else, care to guess what that year is?

You’re relying on one analog year?

 

Since there are several years that match your outlined temperature progression, I’m guessing it’s a +PDO year near/just after solar maximum. Something like 2014, or maybe 1996 if you’re trying to factor in solar minimum.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You’re relying on one analog year?

 

Since there are several years that match your outlined temperature progression, I’m guessing it’s a +PDO year near/just after solar maximum. Something like 2014, or maybe 1996 if you’re trying to factor in solar minimum.

Bingo, you got it, 1996.

 

Yeah I'm pretty much relying on this one year. What I did was take a look at all the La Nina years and see if any of them matched the weather it received for April of that year to this years. There was one that really intrigued me and it was 1996. It's not an exact match but close enough. The Oceanic Niño Index for that year also matched this year's progression. Both 1996 and 2018 peaked in the NDJ time with an ONI value of -1.0 and then to -0.9, -0.8 and -0.6 subsequent months.

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

From 1996 to 2018 there's been about a general increase of +1.0 temperatures here in the PNW based on Mark's blog post where he pointed this out so I factored that in with my final numbers. I also weighed in some seasonal lag to put it all together. I have no idea how my forecast will play out but I really wanted to use analogs and not any of the seasonal forecast that I've seen recently.

 

[Phil]

Not saying you’re wrong, but sometimes the large scale 500mv pattern tells you more than regional temps. And sometimes it doesn’t, lol.

 

FWIW, there were some pretty significant differences across the NH (including opposite NAOs and PNAs) between the two. Whether or not that means anything now isn’t clear. Or at least it’s not clear to me.

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not saying you’re wrong, but sometimes the large scale 500mv pattern tells you more than regional temps. And sometimes it doesn’t, lol.

 

FWIW, there were some pretty significant differences across the NH (including opposite NAOs and PNAs) between the two. Whether or not that means anything now isn’t clear. Or at least it’s not clear to me.

 

 

Yeah, at first I was hesitant to use the 96 analog because that year May was pretty cool compared to normal but I just based that on some seasonal lag. A few days ago models were showing a shift to more troughing the 2nd half of May here in the PNW and they are still showing the same general idea right now. So my thinking is the pattern evolution is delayed by 1-2 weeks at the moment. Right off the bat we are going to find out what will happen in May and if the 96 analog stays on point. Or maybe we are just headed into a warmer 96 pattern but that will mean July and August will have to torch here in the PNW.

 

[Phil]

Will be an interesting pattern to follow, either way.

 

I’m also thinking hot July. Both based on the periodicity of this year’s AAM/MJO cycle. And also because I’ll be there in July. Death ridges follow me everywhere I go during the warm season.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Below average sea surface temperature could make the west coast locations a challenge.

 

SEA

 J: -0.2
 J: 0.5
 A: 1.0

 

OLM

 J: 0.4
 J: 0.8
 A: 1.5

 

PDX

 J: 0.5
 J: 0.9
 A: 1.6

 

CQT

 J: -0.2
 J: 0.8
 A: 1.3

 

DEN

 J: 1.2
 J: 1.7
 A: 1.9

 

DCA

 J: 1.5
 J: 2.2
 A: 1.8

[Front Ranger]

Will be an interesting pattern to follow, either way.

 

I’m also thinking hot July. Both based on the periodicity of this year’s AAM/MJO cycle. And also because I’ll be there in July. Death ridges follow me everywhere I go during the warm season.

I remember that Hippa Island death ridge last summer.

[Phil]

I remember that Hippa Island death ridge last summer.

Lol, it was actually perfect timing. I wasn’t in the PNW long enough to experience it, but the biggest heat/ridging started right on my departure date in early August and lasted into September.

 

The Phil effect.

[Front Ranger]

Lol, it was actually perfect timing. I wasn’t in the PNW long enough to experience it, but the biggest heat/ridging started right on my departure date in early August and lasted into September.

 

The Phil effect.

 

Ah, so sometimes there's a lag. 

[Front Ranger]

Still working up motivation.

[Phil]

Feel free to add/edit guesses for another 10 days or so.

 

The deadline I put in was stupid. No way anyone can make a seasonal forecast in just one week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Feel free to add/edit guesses for another 10 days or so.

 

The deadline I put in was stupid. No way anyone can make a seasonal forecast in just one week.

Sounds good. I was getting concerned about my June forecast for the PNW. Probably won't make any major changes but this will give me a chance to look over more data.

 

Gives time for more people to join too.

[Anti Marine Layer]

General Rex Block pattern does not seem to go away any time soon. If I knew about this, I would have estimated lower with the June average for KCQT.

[Phil]

General Rex Block pattern does not seem to go away any time soon. If I knew about this, I would have estimated lower with the June average for KCQT.

Feel free to edit.

 

We’re talking months here. A lot can/will change between now and then.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Revising my estimates due to this endless cool pattern (May averaging colder than January for the highs so far for KCQT)

 

SEA

J: 0.4

J: 0.5

A: 0.9

 

OLM

J: 0.9

J: 0.8

A: 1.3

 

PDX

J: 0.4

J: 1.2

A: 1.8

 

CQT

J: -0.5

J: 0.2

A: 0.3

 

DEN

J: 0.5

J: 1.2

A: 1.4

 

DCA

J: 2.8

J: 3.2

A: 2.5

[Phil]

Feel free to add/edit numbers through the Memorial Day weekend. I might tweak mine a bit.

[ShawniganLake]

SEA

 

J: 1.5

J: 2.5

A: 1

 

OLM

 

J: 1

J: 2

A: 1

 

PDX

 

J: 1

J: 2

A: 1

 

CQT

 

J: 1

J: 1

A: 1

 

DEN

 

J: 1

J: 1

A: 1

 

DCA

 

J: -1

J: 1

A: 2

[Front Ranger]

June

 

SEA: +.5
OLM: -.5
PDX: 0
CQT: +1
DEN: +2.5
DCA: +1.5

 

July

 

SEA: +1.5

OLM: +.5
PDX: +1
CQT: -1
DEN: 0
DCA: 0

 

August

 

SEA: +2

OLM: +1.5
PDX: +2
CQT: +1.5
DEN: +.5
DCA: +.5

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Made some minor adjustments to my forecast. Still thinking an average June for the PNW but nudged all the stations up by +0.3. July and August I still see warmer/hotter than normal for the PNW. Only reason I have August a little cooler is because towards the mid/end of the month I see a pattern change to cooler weather. If we had to make a September forecast I'd go around -1.0 to -2.0.

 

SEA

June: -0.2

July: +3.8

August: +3.3

 

OLM

June: +0.2

July: +4.0

August: +3.1

 

PDX

June: +0.6

July: +4.2

August: +2.9

 

CQT

June: +1.5

July: +3.5

August: +2.7

 

DEN

June: +3.4

July: +1.5

August: +1.2

 

DCA

June: +0.5

July: -1.8

August: -0.4

[TT-SEA]

SEA
J: 1.4
J: 2.5
A: 0.5

OLM
J: 0.8
J: 2.1
A: 0.0

PDX
J: 1.0
J: 2.3
A: 0.3

CQT
J: -1.0
J: 0.5
A: 0.8

DEN
J: 3.1
J: 0.8
A: 1.0

DCA
J: 0.5
J: 0.8
A: 2.0 

[Phil]

Updated:

 

SEA

June: -0.25

July: +2.5

August: 0.0

 

OLM

June: -0.5

July: +1.5

August: -0.25

 

PDX

June: -0.25

July: +2

August: 0.0

 

CQT

June: +1.5

July: +2.5

August: +0.5

 

DEN

June: +2

July: +0.75

August: +0.75

 

DCA

June: +1

July: +1

August: +2

[Phil]

Again, here are the links to track each station in real time:

 

SEA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KSEA&num=168

 

OLM: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KOLM

 

PDX: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KPDX

 

CQT: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KCQT

 

DEN: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDEN

 

DCA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=Kdca

[Phil]

All guesses need to be submitted by 12AM PDT tonight.

 

Might tweak mine one last time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

All guesses need to be submitted by 12AM PDT tonight.

 

Might tweak mine one last time.

Tweaked mine one last time. Mainly to account for OLM being colder than SEA which I didn't know.

 

SEA

June: +0.2

July: +4.0

August: +3.3

 

OLM

June: -0.2

July: +3.8

August: +3.1

 

PDX

June: +0.6

July: +4.2

August: +2.9

 

CQT

June: +1.5

July: +3.5

August: +2.7

 

DEN

June: +3.4

July: +1.5

August: +1.2

 

DCA

June: +0.5

July: -1.8

August: -0.4

[Phil]

All guesses have been screen-shotted and stored in Microsoft excel. Good luck everyone!

[Deweydog]

Zero departure at PDX today. I'm rocking this b*tch!

[Jesse]

Zero departure at PDX today. I'm rocking this b*tch!

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

[Deweydog]

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

******* **** mother****** cock ******* ***** f***er!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Departures after day 1.

 

SEA: -1

OLM: -3

PDX: +1

CQT: 0

DEN: +12

DCA: +10

[Jesse]

91 days to go!

[Front Ranger]

DEN will probably end up +8.

[Phil]

It’s amazing how Denver have highs in the 90s with lows in the 40s.

 

When DCA hits 90*F in the afternoon, they seldom drop below 70*F at night, and sometimes struggle to drop below 80*F.

[weatherfan2012]

It’s amazing how Denver have highs in the 90s with lows in the 40s.

When DCA hits 90*F in the afternoon, they seldom drop below 70*F at night, and sometimes struggle to drop below 80*F.

yeah amazing that in Denver you be out in summer clothes doing the day but warring jackets or coats at night but would give a wonderful break from the heat and likey fantastic evenings.