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Summer forecast contest, year three.


Phil

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It’s amazing how Denver have highs in the 90s with lows in the 40s.

When DCA hits 90*F in the afternoon, they seldom drop below 70*F at night, and sometimes struggle to drop below 80*F.

 

 

Denver has smaller diurnal changes than much of Colorado.  Freezing to 90's isn't that uncommon where I live.  Places like Alamosa and Gunnison can have some big diunral changes as well.  Anywhere in an exposed valley floor in Colorado is going to have larger diurnal changes than Denver.

 

Anyway, we haven't had any big diurnal changes this month yet, but June is a good month for them.

 

Thus far this month though, all days have had dirunal changes only between 38-51 degrees, but the month is just beginning and I'd expect at least some of them to be close to the 60 degree range by month's end.

 

crj.JPG

 

Update:  Today's range at the official station was 39 to 89, so still no big diurnal days yet this month.

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Lol, 39 to 89 in the summer would be unprecedented here. We simply have too much moisture in the air for that kind of diurnal cycle. In July/August, we sometimes struggle to even drop 10*F at night.

 

And our winters are dominated by gusty downsloping winds, so it keeps our nights warmish as well, at least relative to places west of the apps.

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Lol, 39 to 89 in the summer would be unprecedented here. We simply have too much moisture in the air for that kind of diurnal cycle. In July/August, we sometimes struggle to even drop 10*F at night.

 

And our winters are dominated by gusty downsloping winds, so it keeps our nights warmish as well, at least relative to places west of the apps.

 

Obviously those are massive diurnal changes for most everywhere in the country... Scott is aware of that as well.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Obviously those are massive diurnal changes for most everywhere in the country... Scott is aware of that as well.  

 

 

Compared to the Eastern US, or the West Coast, yes, but not really for much of the interior West.   All of the Western states have locations where 50 degree diurnal changes are very common.    Most of them aren't major cities, but Reno is an exception.

 

There are literally hundreds of stations out west where 50 degree diurnal changes are  very common.  More than 60 degrees is less common, but 50 degrees isn't unusual at all.  All Western states have such locations.   Oregon has Seneca, Idaho has Stanley, California has Bodie, Nevada has Elko, Utah has Ibapah, New Mexico has Galivan, Colorado has Alamosa, Wyoming has Basin, etc., etc.  

 

Even at the airport here (nights are cooler at my house than at the airport), the average July high is 88 and the average low 46.  Cloudy days and nights have less diurnal changes (30 degrees), but clear days are often in the 50-60 degree range, so the average balances out to 42 degrees on an "average" day.  Since nights are cooler at the house, the average range is about 48 degrees.

 

There are several other places out West that have similar diurnal changes.  50 degrees isn't a massive diurnal change for an interior location in the Interior West.  It may be "massive" for the West Coast or most areas east of the Rockies, but not in the Interior West.

 

 

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Compared to the Eastern US, or the West Coast, yes, but not really for much of the interior West.   All of the Western states have locations where 50 degree diurnal changes are very common.    Most of them aren't major cities, but Reno is an exception.

 

There are literally hundreds of stations out west where 50 degree diurnal changes are  very common.  More than 60 degrees is less common, but 50 degrees isn't unusual at all.  All Western states have such locations.   Oregon has Seneca, Idaho has Stanley, California has Bodie, Nevada has Elko, Utah has Ibapah, New Mexico has Galivan, Colorado has Alamosa, Wyoming has Basin, etc., etc.  

 

Even at the airport here (nights are cooler at my house than at the airport), the average July high is 88 and the average low 46.  Cloudy days and nights have less diurnal changes (30 degrees), but clear days are often in the 50-60 degree range, so the average balances out to 42 degrees on an "average" day.  Since nights are cooler at the house, the average range is about 48 degrees.

 

There are several other places out West that have similar diurnal changes.  50 degrees isn't a massive diurnal change for an interior location in the Interior West.  It may be "massive" for the West Coast or most areas east of the Rockies, but not in the Interior West.

 

 

 

I understand.

 

But those are huge diurnal changes for places where most of us live.   And where most people live in the country. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Obviously those are massive diurnal changes for most everywhere in the country... Scott is aware of that as well. ;)

Doesn’t make it any less fascinating, though. I’d love to wake up to subfreezing temperatures, go on a morning run as they warm into the 50s/60s, and spend the afternoon in the thin, super-dry 90*F air.

 

It wouldn’t even feel hot, given the higher altitude and very low specific humidity. I could probably enjoy a 100*F afternoon up there, where-as I can barely stomach highs in the upper 80’s here.

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 Freezing to 90's isn't that uncommon where I live. 

 

 

I’d love to wake up to subfreezing temperatures, go on a morning run as they warm into the 50s/60s, and spend the afternoon in the thin, super-dry 90*F air.

 

 

 

(Updated)

 

It happen today.   It was 32 this morning at home and the 12:30 and 12:35 PM official temperatures were 90F:

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.518014900000026&lon=-107.54947359999994#.WxbadO4vzIU

 

If it stays clear, it could rise a few degrees more in the afternoon.

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Unofficial departures through June 5. Now I know what everybody was talking about with OLM having cooler departures compared to SEA. OLM has had 4 negative departure days so far, SEA has had 2 and PDX only 1.

 

SEA: (-1,7,-1,0,0)/5 = +1

OLM: (-3,7,-2,-2,-4)/5 = -0.8

PDX:(1,7,2,0,-1)/5 = +1.8

CQT: (0,3,3,2,1)/5 = +1.8

DEN: (10,-1,1,11,14)/5 = +7

DCA: (10,9,-5,-4,1)/5 = +2.2

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Unofficial departures through June 5. Now I know what everybody was talking about with OLM having cooler departures compared to SEA. OLM has had 4 negative departure days so far, SEA has had 2 and PDX only 1.

 

SEA: (-1,7,-1,0,0)/5 = +1

OLM: (-3,7,-2,-2,-4)/5 = -0.8

PDX:(1,7,2,0,-1)/5 = +1.8

CQT: (0,3,3,2,1)/5 = +1.8

DEN: (10,-1,1,11,14)/5 = +7

DCA: (10,9,-5,-4,1)/5 = +2.2

These numbers are not accurate.

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How do you calculate the numbers?

They’re calculated on the local NWS climate page for each location/station.

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That's where I went for each station. I took the average departure each day then divided by the number of days so far. Unless you guys calculate it another way.

They calculate it for you, dude. It’s right there.

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They calculate it for you, dude. It’s right there.

I see. That's a relief then. I was doing it the old school way and took lots of time. It would be good though to record each individual departure day for each station and then put it on the graph. Then you can see the pattern for the whole summer. That's what I'm doing with all the stations right now.

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  • 2 weeks later...

OLM is still -0.5. Lol. Amazing what UHI can do in a climate with a relatively shallow boundary layer.

 

I bet OLM finishes June with a negative anomaly too.

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I think we both went too cool everywhere.

Yeah, could be. Surface temps don’t seem to behave the same way over there, compared to how they do here.

 

Or at least the UHI seems to be much stronger there.

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

 

SEA is +1.9, PDX is +1.6. UHI probably adding 1.5*F to both locations.

 

OLM is at 0.0, which is probably the non-UHI reality.

 

DCA is +1.3

 

We’ve had some warm overnight lows, but highs have been kept in check by the foot of rain we’ve had since Memorial Day Weekend. We’ve had something like 20” of rain since May 1st, with more coming. Might finish with 30-35” in the MJJ period.

 

Some areas in N-central MD just east of the fall line have indeed had close to 30” since May 1st already. #Swamp

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

 

SEA is +1.9, PDX is +1.6. UHI probably adding 1.5*F to both locations.

 

OLM is at 0.0, which is probably the non-UHI reality.

 

DCA is +1.3

 

We’ve had some warm overnight lows, but highs have been kept in check by the foot of rain we’ve had since Memorial Day Weekend. We’ve had something like 20” of rain since May 1st, with more coming. Might finish with 30-35” in the MJJ period.

 

Some areas in N-central MD just east of the fall line have indeed had close to 30” since May 1st already. #Swamp

 

 

You talk about the UHI like its temporary or results in false readings.   Its very real and its probably going to become even more pronounced... its the new normal.

 

Also looks like the Puget Sound warm bubble is back (not just at SEA)... similar to the general troughy period in July of 2016.  Its been a troughy month overall until the last couple days as you mentioned.

 

anomimage.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You talk about the UHI like its temporary or results in false readings. Its very real and its probably going to become even more pronounced... its the new normal.

 

Also looks like the Puget Sound warm bubble is back (not just at SEA)... similar to the general troughy period in July of 2016. Its been a troughy month overall until the last couple days as you mentioned.

 

anomimage.gif

But UHI is artificial, and relatively localized. Once you head out to rural and/or underdeveloped areas, there’s often a 2-3 degree difference. Even within the same city jurisdictions there can be large differences. And it’s all artificial.

 

I often drive through insane UHI pockets here during the morning, where temperatures can spike by 10*F+ over a space of less than a mile.

 

I’m so freaking glad I live in a wooded, under-developed area. One of the few locations here that can still cool down at night. There’s still UHI, but it’s tolerable. Drive a few miles away from here in the morning and you spike by at least 5 degrees unless it’s windy. During the autumn it can be as high as 15*F.

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

 

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

 

I've expressed my displeasure with it, but I'm not generally a ranter. It sucks, but I'd rather have extreme warm anomalies in early June than late July. 

 

I've only had a couple 95+ days...seen much worse.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

 

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:

Edit: Just had another 1.7” of rain in the last 15 minutes.

 

Tim would be throwing a tantrum if he was here. Lmao.

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Edit: Just had another 1.7” of rain in the last 15 minutes.

 

Tim would be throwing a tantrum if he was here. Lmao.

 

Straw man!   You are losing it dude.

 

And for record... I love rain like that.   Absolutely love it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

 

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:

 

I never complained about summer rain in MN... it comes fast and then its right back to warm and sunny.    Its not an issue at all.    We can spend a week here with clouds and chilly weather just to get a quarter of an inch of rain.    That is a waste of summer in my opinion.

 

You are just endless straw man arguments now... you completely miss the mark about my preferences and then attack.    Its so silly and sounds desperate.   :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My June forecast for Denver is in big trouble at this rate..monster positive anomaly still.

 

And I’m gonna bust huge in July at DCA. Will probably be something like +4.5. Lol.

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My June forecast for Denver is in big trouble at this rate..monster positive anomaly still.

 

And I’m gonna bust huge in July at DCA. Will probably be something like +4.5. Lol.

 

The massive N-S temp gradient continues in the Intermountain West. Bozeman Airport is running a -1.6F departure on the month so far with mainly below average temps forecasted for the rest of this month. 

 

Should have added BZN into the forecast contest just to offset all the positive anomalies a little!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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