Summer forecast contest, year three.

[James Jones]

My completely unscientific gut feeling right now is that this will be the coolest PNW summer since 2012. September will torch though.

 

Jinx! LOL

 

2016 is the new gold standard for frigid summers around here.

[Front Ranger]

SEA should be up to about +5 after today.

 

[Jesse]

SEA should be up to about +5 after today.

 

woot_jump.gif

Something something -PDO.

[Front Ranger]

Something something -PDO.

Left that phase awhile ago, bub.

[Jesse]

Left that phase awhile ago, bub.

Hey, just trying to help you rationalize!

[BLI snowman]

Hard to shake the thought that a week of partial cloudiness in late June in the vicinity of Everett and North Bend ruined what could have otherwise been a relatively warm and dry summer for the region.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to shake the thought that a week of partial cloudiness in late June in the vicinity of Everett and North Bend ruined what could have otherwise been a relatively warm and dry summer for the region.

June was a pretty cloudy month up here away from the water. We were due for some sunny weather. Just like we were due for drier weather by the middle of April. Nature seems to be following our script and dragging the rest of you along for the ride.

[Jesse]

June was a pretty cloudy month up here away from the water. We were due for some sunny weather. Just like we were due for drier weather by the middle of April. Nature seems to be following our script and dragging the rest of you along for the ride.

You are smart enough to know that this is a crock of . Probably coincidence at best. Although the odds of the weather following your script during the warm season do increase as our climate warms I am sure.

[TT-SEA]

You are smart enough to know that this is a crock of s**t. Probably coincidence at best. Although the odds of the weather following your script during the warm season do increase as our climate warms I am sure.

 

 

If I did not know anything else beyond what was happening in my area then I would say it has played out as expected.    

 

When the rain got ridiculous in the first half of April... a dry spell seemed almost inevitable based on local history.   And when it rained on almost half the days in June and was almost totally cloudy for a week towards the end of the month... a stretch of true summer weather with sun and warm temps seemed almost inevitable based on local history.

 

Its been a very typical progression here.    And it is still significantly wet for 2018.   And the the temperature anomaly for the year is almost perfectly normal here... maybe even just slightly below normal.

 

 

[Jesse]

If I did not know anything else beyond what was happening in my area then I would say it has played out as expected.

 

When the rain got ridiculous in the first half of April... a dry spell seemed almost inevitable based on local history. And when it rained on almost half the days in June and was almost totally cloudy for a week towards the end of the month... a stretch of true summer weather with sun and warm temps seemed almost inevitable based on local history.

 

Its been a very typical progression here. And it is still significantly wet for 2018. And the the temperature anomaly for the year is almost perfectly normal here... maybe even just slightly below normal.

 

 

Do I really need to waste my time telling you why this is silly?

[TT-SEA]

Do I really need to waste my time telling you why this is silly?

You can tell me whatever you want... but our tangible weather here has followed a pretty typical progression this year.

 

From late cold and snow from February into early April... to record setting rain... to typical cloudy and damp late spring and early summer weather... to a sunny and hot spell in July.

 

That is what we have experienced here.

 

So the progression has been fairly typical here despite what has happened down there.

[TT-SEA]

And the numbers for 2018 so far show the same thing... much wetter than normal with average to slightly below average temps.

[TT-SEA]

Do I really need to waste my time telling you why this is silly?

[Jesse]

Don’t feel like wasting my time. You already know, Tim. You are not a stupid man, even though you may play one on TV.

[TT-SEA]

I am not talking about the entire PNW.

 

There is a large area north and east of Seattle that is still wetter than normal and cooler than normal for the year.

 

Only March and May were drier than normal in this area. January, February, April were wetter than normal... June was about normal.

 

If you lived in this area and did not know what was happening elsewhere... you would think its been a pretty typical progression.

 

I wish the rest of the region experienced the same.

 

I am not wrong. The actual data proves the same thing for the area north and east of Seattle.

[Jesse]

If you lived in this area and did not know what was happening elsewhere... you would think its been a pretty typical progression.

But you’d be wrong of course, since the progression has been anything but typical regionally. I guess that didn’t take too much time!

[TT-SEA]

But you’d be wrong of course, since the progression has been anything but typical regionally. I guess that didn’t take too much time!

But its resulted in a very typical progression here. That is a fact.

[Jesse]

But its resulted in a very typical progression here. That is a fact.

One of those quirky things. OR your backyard is the new pacemaker for the regional climate and is dragging the rest of us along kicking and screaming. Can’t decide which one is more probable. Tim?

[TT-SEA]

One of those quirky things. OR your backyard is the new pacemaker for the regional climate and is dragging the rest of us along kicking and screaming. Can’t decide which one is more probable. Tim?

Quirky or not... it's been wetter than normal and a little cooler than normal north and east of Seattle so far in 2018.

 

Not sure how big you think my property is... but that is a much bigger area than just my backyard!

 

In this area... it has been a very typical progression in 2018 in terms of tangible weather. That is just a fact. Sorry.

 

I still have not watered the lawn this year and its July 17th. That is late even for my area.

[Jesse]

In this area... it has been a very typical progression in 2018 in terms of tangible weather. That is just a fact. Sorry.

 

 

No one has said that part isn’t a fact. The other stuff is good old fashioned all American bullshit though.

[TT-SEA]

No one has said that part isn’t a fact. The other stuff is good old fashioned all American bullshit though.

That is what it feels like here.

 

I am sure we will be drenched in August as well... and probably just in the same area again.

[Jesse]

That is what it feels like here.

 

I am sure we will be drenched in August as well... and probably just in the same area again.

Maybe you will get lucky and we can drag your area kicking and screaming into our long term drought.

 

#science

[BLI snowman]

Bellingham certainly hasn't been wet or cold this year. Nor has much of SW B.C.

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham certainly hasn't been wet or cold this year. Nor has much of SW B.C.

Nope... the maps above tell the tale very well.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe you will get lucky and we can drag your area kicking and screaming into our long term drought.

#science

Doubt it. The copious rain will come around here after our short summer break.

 

As always.

[BLI snowman]

Nope... the maps above tell the tale very well.

 

BLI is running about -2" for precip since January 1 and about +2 on temperatures. The numbers are pretty clear cut.

[Jesse]

BLI is running about -2" for precip since January 1 and about +2 on temperatures. The numbers are pretty clear cut.

I wonder when they will drag the rest of us into a cool and wet pattern? Or can neighborhoods only drag entire regions into weather regimes to sate their averages when median annual income is above 100k? I’m still rusty on the rules.

[TT-SEA]

BLI is running about -2" for precip since January 1 and about +2 on temperatures. The numbers are pretty clear cut.

Nobody said BLI was in the area of wetter and cooler than nornal.

 

BLI could be 10 inches below normal for rain and 10 degrees above normal and it does not change the clear cut numbers for the area north and east of Seattle that has been wetter and cooler than normal.

[BLI snowman]

Nobody said BLI was in the area of wetter and cooler than nornal.

 

BLI could be 10 inches below normal for rain and 10 degrees above normal and it does not change the clear cut numbers for the area north and east of Seattle that has been wetter and cooler than normal.

 

Nah, you've been painting "north of Seattle" with a pretty broad brush. 

 

Your stance on this year really doesn't hold up for a majority of NW WA and SW BC, where it's been warm/dry overall like most of the rest of western WA and all of western OR.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, you've been painting "north of Seattle" with a pretty broad brush. 

 

Your stance on this year really doesn't hold up for a majority of NW WA and SW BC, where it's been warm/dry overall like most of the rest of western WA and all of western OR.

I am not painting with a broad brush... the precip map above paints the area very well.

[BLI snowman]

I am not painting with a broad brush... the precip map above paints the area very well.

 

Apparently not since it's trying to indicate that the area around Bellingham has a precip surplus for the year when the actual numbers say it clearly doesn't 

[TT-SEA]

Apparently not since it's trying to indicate that the area around Bellingham has a precip surplus for the year when the actual numbers say it clearly doesn't 

So the maps are garbage huh?

 

Sure Justin.

 

BLI is likely an anomaly up there. The rest of western Whatcom County is probably closer to normal.

 

But the real wet area is south of there anyways. And its very real.

[Phil]

I wonder when they will drag the rest of us into a cool and wet pattern? Or can neighborhoods only drag entire regions into weather regimes to sate their averages when median annual income is above 100k? I’m still rusty on the rules.

:lol:

[Phil]

I wonder if the “average” algorithm on those maps is too low in resolution to capture the higher rainfall averages at Tim’s location, etc.

 

Might explain why he’s always in a little wet bubble there. Although I admit I’ve been to busy to look back at previous years for consistency, I’m not sure there’s any other plausible explanation for such a tiny, yet-persistent bubble of wetter than average weather right over Tim.

[BLI snowman]

So the maps are garbage huh?

 

Sure Justin.

 

BLI is likely an anomaly up there. The rest of western Whatcom County is probably closer to normal.

 

But the real wet area is south of there anyways. And its very real.

 

Probably. Actual hard numbers are always nicer than tacky little maps.

[BLI snowman]

I wonder if the “average” algorithm on those maps is too low in resolution to capture the higher rainfall averages at Tim’s location, etc.

 

Might explain why he’s always in a little wet bubble there. Although I admit I’ve been to busy to look back at previous years for consistency, I’m not sure there’s any other plausible explanation for such a tiny, yet-persistent bubble of wetter than average weather right over Tim.

 

Tim used to like to use the Palmer 3ESE station to approximate his averages. They receive 90" of precip per year on average, so they're one of the wettest long-term stations in the area.

 

Looking at WRCC, it appears that they surely aren't running any kind of significant precip surplus thus far this year, although their June numbers aren't in yet. Looks like pretty average numbers there though.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if the “average” algorithm on those maps is too low in resolution to capture the higher rainfall averages at Tim’s location, etc.

Might explain why he’s always in a little wet bubble there. Although I admit I’ve been to busy to look back at previous years for consistency, I’m not sure there’s any other plausible explanation for such a tiny, yet-persistent bubble of wetter than average weather right over Tim.

Its way more than my backyard.

 

It was way drier than normal in May here and the map showed that well. Same for July so far.

 

I can tell you its been wetter than normal here this year. And the same is true all the way up to Randy's area.

 

Its accurate.

[TT-SEA]

Tim used to like to use the Palmer 3ESE station to approximate his averages. They receive 90" of precip per year on average, so they're one of the wettest long-term stations in the area.

 

Looking at WRCC, it appears that they surely aren't running any kind of significant precip surplus thus far this year, although their June numbers aren't in yet. Looks like pretty average numbers there though.

Late January and February were way wetter from about I-90 northward. Persistent warm front pattern. Rattlesnake ridge is often the dividing line in that pattern. April was crazy wet at Palmer too.

[TT-SEA]

Probably. Actual hard numbers are always nicer than tacky little maps.

Jared is not going to be happy about this post!

[Jesse]

Jared is not going to be happy about this post!

 

Depends on what you are using them for. All of us realize that those maps extrapolate to a degree.