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Summer forecast contest, year three.

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#251
ShawniganLake

Posted 20 July 2018 - 12:13 PM

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Terrible. Crying baby behind me for the full 5hrs, and the charger port was broken so my phone died mid-flight.

Figures. :lol:

Ouch. Thank god our little one has never been a crier.
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#252
Phil

Posted 20 July 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Battery drained by playing music in the lav while joining the mile high club?


Ha, if only. Playing chess with noise-canceling earbuds in to drown out the baby noise really did a number on it.

Ironically I actually beat the computer on the highest level yet, and did it easily despite the uncomfortable circumstances. Must’ve been the air pressure.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#253
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2018 - 12:51 PM

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Ha, if only. Playing chess with noise-canceling earbuds in to drown out the baby noise really did a number on it.

Ironically I actually beat the computer on the highest level yet, and did it easily despite the uncomfortable circumstances. Must’ve been the air pressure.

 

Or the lower humidity? 

 

It's well known that Bobby Fischer's greatest weakness was playing in DPs above 70.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#254
GHweatherChris

Posted 25 July 2018 - 09:02 PM

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Still no calculations showing current standings? Asking for a friend....
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#255
Deweydog

Posted 30 July 2018 - 01:44 PM

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So is this thing still a thing?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#256
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 01:50 PM

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Rankings and meatloaf now, mom!!!!

#257
Deweydog

Posted 30 July 2018 - 02:00 PM

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Rankings and meatloaf now, mom!!!!


https://m.youtube.co...h?v=Z1-xGuEkdLw

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#258
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 02:07 PM

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https://m.youtube.co...h?v=Z1-xGuEkdLw


Ew!! The medicine I make tastes kinda bad!

#259
Deweydog

Posted 30 July 2018 - 02:26 PM

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Ew!! The medicine I make tastes kinda bad!


I've finally learned my lesson! Ninos are BAD!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#260
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 02:29 PM

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I've finally learned my lesson! Ninos are BAD!


Good! I await your conciliatory PM.

#261
Deweydog

Posted 30 July 2018 - 02:40 PM

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Good! I await your conciliatory PM.


I'll randomly respond to one of the 37.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#262
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 02:51 PM

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I'll randomly respond to one of the 37.


Either someone hacked my account recently or you are a fibber McGee!

#263
Deweydog

Posted 30 July 2018 - 02:58 PM

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Either someone hacked my account or you are a fibber McGee!


It was a best guesstimate.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#264
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 03:02 PM

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It was a best guesstimate.


The nice thing about the PM reference tactic is that you can make it sound like you’ve been getting bombarded by an unhinged cold freak and there is no way for anyone to fact check otherwise. A lawyer’s dream defense!

#265
Deweydog

Posted 30 July 2018 - 03:10 PM

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The nice thing about the PM reference tactic is that you can make it sound like you’ve been getting bombarded by an unhinged cold freak and there is no way for anyone to fact check otherwise. A lawyer’s dream defense!


For the record I haven't received one from you in quite some time.

Also, I don't think anyone else gives two shits.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#266
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 03:12 PM

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For the record I haven't received one from you in quite some time.

Also, I don't think anyone else gives two shits.


You must. :wub: Probably a lot more than 37 PM references over the last several months.

It’s alright though. Karing isn’t always kreepy.

#267
Deweydog

Posted 30 July 2018 - 03:17 PM

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You must. :wub: Probably a lot more than 37 PM references over the last several months.

It’s alright though. Karing isn’t always kreepy.


Been a hot July!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#268
Jesse

Posted 30 July 2018 - 03:28 PM

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Been a hot July!


The sun rose today too!

#269
happ

Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:24 AM

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I didn't offer an opinion on summer but would have not predicted what the West just went though. Damnation fires everywhere in our new climate reality  



#270
Eujunga

Posted 04 August 2018 - 09:31 PM

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Seems like no one cares about this contest anymore, possibly because everyone busted so low on the Western stations, but here are the official July numbers for anyone that's interested:

 

SEA:  +5.0

 

OLM:  +2.8

 

PDX:  +4.8

 

CQT:  +5.5

 

DEN:  +1.1

 

DCA:  +0.9

 

Always glad to see hard evidence that the climate isn't actually warming.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#271
Kayla

Posted 05 August 2018 - 06:35 AM

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Seems like no one cares about this contest anymore, possibly because everyone busted so low on the Western stations, but here are the official July numbers for anyone that's interested:

 

SEA:  +5.0

 

OLM:  +2.8

 

PDX:  +4.8

 

CQT:  +5.5

 

DEN:  +1.1

 

DCA:  +0.9

 

Always glad to see hard evidence that the climate isn't actually warming.

 

Yet BZN pulled off another monthly negative anomaly with -1.9 for July. June was also -1.9F. May has been the only month this year that has been above average.

 

It's kind of a strange anomaly when you look at the country as a whole. Though it does seem like northern plains/upper midwest clippers are becoming more common over the past several years during all seasons. It would seem central and eastern Montana is just east enough to see those same effects.


Warm season June/July/August 2018:

Total rainfall: 4.11"
Highest daily rainfall 0.83"
Coldest high: 51.1ºF
Coldest low: 27.7ºF

Average temp thus far: 60.5ºF 

June: 56.3ºF

July: 63.9ºF

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#272
Eujunga

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:13 AM

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When looking at July as a whole, there appears to be a strip of slightly below-normal temperatures running northwest-to-southeast from Montana to Florida.  It just happens that none of the stations in the contest fell within that area.

 

It's neither as large nor as intense as the surrounding areas of positive anomalies, meaning the country as a whole experienced what will probably be recorded as yet another record hot month.

 

Jul18TDeptUS.png


  • Kayla likes this

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#273
Kayla

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:36 AM

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Here's a map of year to date anomalies highlighting my observation above. Also points to the four corner high being stronger this year.

 

YearTDeptUS.png


Warm season June/July/August 2018:

Total rainfall: 4.11"
Highest daily rainfall 0.83"
Coldest high: 51.1ºF
Coldest low: 27.7ºF

Average temp thus far: 60.5ºF 

June: 56.3ºF

July: 63.9ºF

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#274
Phil

Posted 05 August 2018 - 01:05 PM

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Yet BZN pulled off another monthly negative anomaly with -1.9 for July. June was also -1.9F. May has been the only month this year that has been above average.

It's kind of a strange anomaly when you look at the country as a whole. Though it does seem like northern plains/upper midwest clippers are becoming more common over the past several years during all seasons. It would seem central and eastern Montana is just east enough to see those same effects.


I’m still interested. I’ve just been busy enjoying my vacation and haven’t really been hyper-focused on weather/climate stuff as usual.

I fly back home tomorrow, and then drive down to FL/GA on the 8th, where I’ll be until the 19th.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#275
Front Ranger

Posted 05 August 2018 - 01:59 PM

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When looking at July as a whole, there appears to be a strip of slightly below-normal temperatures running northwest-to-southeast from Montana to Florida.  It just happens that none of the stations in the contest fell within that area.

 

It's neither as large nor as intense as the surrounding areas of positive anomalies, meaning the country as a whole experienced what will probably be recorded as yet another record hot month.

 

Jul18TDeptUS.png

 

Very unlikely.

 

A pretty large portion of the country was near or below normal. If you look at record hot months for the U.S., there's usually very few areas below or near normal. And the blowtorching was actually more intense and widespread than this past July.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#276
Front Ranger

Posted 05 August 2018 - 02:08 PM

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Seems like no one cares about this contest anymore, possibly because everyone busted so low on the Western stations, but here are the official July numbers for anyone that's interested:

 

SEA:  +5.0

 

OLM:  +2.8

 

PDX:  +4.8

 

CQT:  +5.5

 

DEN:  +1.1

 

DCA:  +0.9

 

Always glad to see hard evidence that the climate isn't actually warming.

 

It's funny how there have been more and more comments on here recently about how NOW global warming is so obvious, because of what's been observed locally in the PNW in recent years.

 

Of course, nothing has changed about the trend in global temps, and back in 2012 (when the globe was slightly cooler) the U.S. saw their warmest summer and warmest year on record - but I guess it takes local weather to make global warming hit home.  :rolleyes:


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#277
Jesse

Posted 05 August 2018 - 06:07 PM

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It's funny how there have been more and more comments on here recently about how NOW global warming is so obvious, because of what's been observed locally in the PNW in recent years.

Of course, nothing has changed about the trend in global temps, and back in 2012 (when the globe was slightly cooler) the U.S. saw their warmest summer and warmest year on record - but I guess it takes local weather to make global warming hit home. :rolleyes:


Must be hard to be such a bastion of rationality in a sea of fools.

#278
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:42 PM

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Seems like no one cares about this contest anymore, possibly because everyone busted so low on the Western stations, but here are the official July numbers for anyone that's interested:

SEA: +5.0

OLM: +2.8

PDX: +4.8

CQT: +5.5

DEN: +1.1

DCA: +0.9

Always glad to see hard evidence that the climate isn't actually warming.


I predicted a hot July out West and I think I did good but I underestimated the roast for CQT. Here are my predictions versus what ended up happening.

SEA: +4.0 +5.0 = -1.0

OLM: +3.8 +2.8 = +1.0

PDX: +4.2 +4.8 = -0.6

CQT: +3.5 +5.5 = -2.0

DEN: +1.5 +1.1 = +0.4

DCA: -1.8 +0.9 = -2.7

I was within 1.0 off on 4/6 locations. The only real prediction I'm disappointed in was DCA, I was well off there.

#279
Front Ranger

Posted 05 August 2018 - 09:33 PM

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Must be hard to be such a bastion of rationality in a sea of fools.


Your words, not mine. It was just an observation.

Was it not accurate?

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#280
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 05 August 2018 - 09:56 PM

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I’m still interested. I’ve just been busy enjoying my vacation and haven’t really been hyper-focused on weather/climate stuff as usual.

I fly back home tomorrow, and then drive down to FL/GA on the 8th, where I’ll be until the 19th.


I'll try and calculate where everybody is at through July. I have some time the next 2 days in case you can't get to it.
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#281
Front Ranger

Posted 06 August 2018 - 09:34 AM

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I'll try and calculate where everybody is at through July. I have some time the next 2 days in case you can't get to it.

 

Go for it!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#282
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 August 2018 - 07:16 PM

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Go for it!


Here are the unofficial standings after the first 2 months. I calculated everybody's error for the 6 locations and added them up. The 1st number is for June and the 2nd is for July incase everybody wanted to know how well they did each month. I added them together to get the current standings. The smaller your number the better you did. Everybody did better in June than in July. Still one month to go so still anybodys ballgame.

1)Frontal Snowsquall -6.0 + -7.7 = -13.7
2)TT-SEA -6.4 + -11.1 = -17.5
3)Phil -8.5 + -10.05= -18.55
4)Jesse -5.0 + -13.8 = -18.8
5)ShawiganLake -8.3 + -10.8 = -19.1
6)Scott -7.2 + -12.4 = -19.6
7)BLI snowman -10.5+ -11.3 = -21.8
8)Front Ranger -7.0 + -18.1 = -25.1
9)Mr Marine Layer -11.5+ -17.8 = -29.3
10)Deweydog -10.8+ -20.1 = -30.9

#283
TT-SEA

Posted 06 August 2018 - 07:18 PM

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Here are the unofficial standings after the first 2 months. I calculated everybody's error for the 6 locations and added them up. The 1st number is for June and the 2nd is for July incase everybody wanted to know how well they did each month. I added them together to get the current standings. The smaller your number the better you did. Everybody did better in June than in July. Still one month to go so still anybodys ballgame.

1)Frontal Snowsquall -6.0 + -7.7 = -13.7
2)TT-SEA -6.4 + -11.1 = -17.5
3)Phil -8.5 + -10.05= -18.55
4)Jesse -5.0 + -13.8 = -18.8
5)ShawiganLake -8.3 + -10.8 = -19.1
6)Scott -7.2 + -12.4 = -19.6
7)BLI snowman -10.5+ -11.3 = -21.8
8)Front Ranger -7.0 + -18.1 = -25.1
9)Mr Marine Layer -11.5+ -17.8 = -29.3
10)Deweydog -10.8+ -20.1 = -30.9

 

Thanks for taking the time to do this.



#284
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 August 2018 - 07:25 PM

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Thanks for taking the time to do this.


You're welcome. If Phil or anybody else wants to check these numbers feel free. Did it quickly and had to correct some numbers.

#285
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 03:13 PM

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Dewpoint hovering ~ 77 degrees here this evening.

I wish I could go back in time 2 days. Just for an hour. 😢
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#286
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:34 PM

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Trying to do an excel table w/ rankings and calculations of what leaders need to win. Some close calls in there.
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#287
Phil

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:37 PM

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Starting a bit here, but there’s been an absurd amount of rain here since May 1st. Will probably be tough to run large anomalies at DCA with everything so waterlogged.

Looks like 45 - 46” of rain here since 5/1:

5LZimPy.jpg

A flash flood apparently roared thru our backyard while we were gone. Mulch and soil washed away along with some cheap old furniture stored under the gazebo. Neighbor says it was 1-2 feet deep. Luckily it was just below our foundation.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#288
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 08 August 2018 - 11:44 AM

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Starting a bit here, but there’s been an absurd amount of rain here since May 1st. Will probably be tough to run large anomalies at DCA with everything so waterlogged.

Looks like 45 - 46” of rain here since 5/1:

5LZimPy.jpg

A flash flood apparently roared thru our backyard while we were gone. Mulch and soil washed away along with some cheap old furniture stored under the gazebo. Neighbor says it was 1-2 feet deep. Luckily it was just below our foundation.


We've only gotten 1.22" of rain since May 1st. Which is 2.68% of what you have received. Pretty extreme difference right there.