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Summer forecast contest, year three.

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#351
Jesse

Posted 15 September 2018 - 10:20 PM

Jesse

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Okay guys, I’ve been busy AF since the last week of August. I barely even have time to sleep. I shouldn’t even be posting here.

My schedule clears up considerably starting Tuesday. So until then, it’s unlikely I’ll be able to write detailed posts of any kind on this forum.

 

A quick 10K can do wonders for stress.


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#352
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 September 2018 - 02:39 PM

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Tired of waiting, so I did the calculations.

 

Sorry Jesse, I messed up my calculations the first time. The winner is Frontal Snowsquall with a total error of 21.9 and an average error of 1.22

 

-----------------
Actual Departures
-----------------
SEA
Jun: +1.7
Jul: +5.0
Aug: +2.7
OLM
Jun: +0.1
Jul: +2.8
Aug: +1.7
PDX
Jun: +2.1
Jul: +4.8
Aug: +2.6
CQT
Jun: +0.9
Jul: +5.5
Aug: +4.0
DEN:
Jun: +5.0
Jul: +1.1
Aug: -0.1
DCA
Jun: +1.0
Jul: +0.9
Aug: +2.9

-----
Scott
-----
SEA
Jun: +1.0 (0.7)
Jul: +1.2 (3.8)
Aug: +1.1 (1.6)
OLM
Jun: +1.1 (1.0)
Jul: +1.2 (1.6)
Aug: +1.2 (0.5)
PDX
Jun: +1.3 (0.8)
Jul: +1.5 (3.3)
Aug: +1.3 (1.3)
CQT
Jun: +2.0 (1.1)
Jul: +2.0 (3.5)
Aug: +1.9 (2.1)
DEN:
Jun: +1.4 (3.6)
Jul: +1.2 (0.1)
Aug: +1.2 (1.3)
DCA
Jun: +1.0 (0.0)
Jul: +1.0 (0.1)
Aug: +0.9 (2.0)

Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58


-----------
BLI snowman
-----------
SEA
Jun: -0.8 (2.5)
Jul: +2.1 (2.9)
Aug: +3.2 (0.5)
OLM
Jun: -1.4 (1.5)
Jul: +1.5 (1.3)
Aug: +1.8 (0.1)
PDX
Jun: +0.1 (2.0)
Jul: +3.3 (1.5)
Aug: +3.9 (1.3)
CQT
Jun: -1.3 (2.2)
Jul: +0.4 (5.1)
Aug: +1.0 (3.0)
DEN
Jun: +3.6 (1.4)
Jul: +1.4 (0.3)
Aug: -0.2 (0.1)
DCA
Jun: +1.9 (0.9)
Jul: +0.7 (0.2)
Aug: +1.3 (1.6)

Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58


-----
Jesse
-----
SEA
Jun: +1.1 (0.6)
Jul: +2.1 (2.9)
Aug: +3.1 (0.4)
OLM
Jun: +0.5 (0.4)
Jul: +1.5 (1.3)
Aug: +2.5 (0.8)
PDX
Jun: +1.0 (1.1)
Jul: +2.0 (2.8)
Aug: +3.0 (0.4)
CQT
Jun:  0.0 (0.9)
Jul: +1.0 (4.5)
Aug: +2.0 (2.0)
DEN
Jun: +3   (2.0)
Jul: +1.5 (0.4)
Aug: -1.0 (0.9)
DCA
Jun: +1.0 (0.0)
Jul: -1.0 (1.9)
Aug: 0.0  (2.9)

Total error: 26.2
Average error: 1.46


--------
Deweydog
--------
SEA
Jun: 0 (1.7)
Jul: 0 (5.0)
Aug: 0 (2.7)
OLM
Jun: 0 (0.1)
Jul: 0 (2.8)
Aug: 0 (1.7)
PDX
Jun: 0 (2.1)
Jul: 0 (4.8)
Aug: 0 (2.6)
CQT
Jun: 0 (0.9)
Jul: 0 (5.5)
Aug: 0 (4.0)
DEN
Jun: 0 (5.0)
Jul: 0 (1.1)
Aug: 0 (0.1)
DCA
Jun: 0 (1.0)
Jul: 0 (0.9)
Aug: 0 (2.9)

Total error: 44.9
Average error: 2.49


---------------
Mr Marine Layer
---------------
SEA
Jun: 0.4 (1.3)
Jul: 0.5 (4.5)
Aug: 0.9 (1.8)
OLM
Jun: 0.9 (0.8)
Jul: 0.8 (2.0)
Aug: 1.3 (0.4)
PDX
Jun: 0.4 (1.7)
Jul: 1.2 (3.6)
Aug: 1.8 (0.8)
CQT
Jun: -0.5 (1.4)
Jul: 0.2 (5.3)
Aug: 0.3 (3.7)
DEN
Jun: 0.5 (4.5)
Jul: 1.2 (0.1)
Aug: 1.4 (1.5)
DCA
Jun: 2.8 (1.8)
Jul: 3.2 (2.3)
Aug: 2.5 (0.4)

Total error: 37.9
Average error: 2.11


-------------
ShawniganLake
-------------
SEA
Jun: 1.5 (0.2)
Jul: 2.5 (2.5)
Aug: 1   (1.7)
OLM
Jun: 1 (0.9)
Jul: 2 (0.8)
Aug: 1 (0.7)
PDX
Jun: 1 (1.1)
Jul: 2 (2.8)
Aug: 1 (1.6)
CQT
Jun: 1 (0.1)
Jul: 1 (4.5)
Aug: 1 (3.0)
DEN
Jun: 1 (4.0)
Jul: 1 (0.1)
Aug: 1 (1.1)
DCA
Jun: -1 (2.0)
Jul: 1 (0.1)
Aug: 2 (0.9)

Total error: 28.1
Average error: 1.56


------------
Front Ranger
------------
SEA
Jun: +.5 (1.2)
Jul: +1.5 (3.5)
Aug: +2 (0.7)
OLM
Jun: -.5 (0.6)
Jul: +.5 (2.3)
Aug: +1.5 (0.2)
PDX
Jun: 0 (2.1)
Jul: +1 (3.8)
Aug: +2 (0.6)
CQT
Jun: +1 (0.1)
Jul: -1 (6.5)
Aug: +1.5 (2.5)
DEN
Jun: +2.5 (2.5)
Jul: 0 (1.1)
Aug: +.5 (0.6)
DCA
Jun: +1.5 (0.5)
Jul: 0 (0.9)
Aug: +.5 (2.4)

Total error: 32.1
Average error: 1.78


------
TT-SEA
------
SEA
Jun: 1.4 (0.3)
Jul: 2.5 (2.5)
Aug: 0.5 (2.2)
OLM
Jun: 0.8 (0.7)
Jul: 2.1 (0.7)
Aug: 0.0 (1.7)
PDX
Jun: 1.0 (1.1)
Jul: 2.3 (2.5)
Aug: 0.3 (2.3)
CQT
Jun: -1.0 (1.9)
Jul: 0.5 (5.0)
Aug: 0.8 (3.2)
DEN
Jun: 3.1 (1.9)
Jul: 0.8 (0.3)
Aug: 1.0 (1.1)
DCA
Jun: 0.5 (0.5)
Jul: 0.8 (0.1)
Aug: 2.0 (0.9)

Total error: 28.9
Average error: 1.61


----
Phil
----
SEA
Jun: -0.25 (1.95)
Jul: +2.5 (2.5)
Aug: 0.0 (2.7)
OLM
Jun: -0.5 (0.6)
Jul: +1.5 (1.3)
Aug: -0.25 (1.95)
PDX
Jun: 0.25 (1.85)
Jul: +2 (2.8)
Aug: 0.0 (2.6)
CQT
Jun: +1.5 (0.6)
Jul: +2.5 (3.0)
Aug: +0.5 (3.5)
DEN
Jun: +2   (3.0)
Jul: +0.75 (0.35)
Aug: +0.75 (0.85)
DCA
Jun: +1 (0.0)
Jul: +1 (0.1)
Aug: +2 (0.9)

Total error: 30.55
Average error: 1.70


------------------
Frontal Snowsquall
------------------
SEA
Jun: +0.2 (1.5)
Jul: +4.0 (1.0)
Aug: +3.3 (0.6)
OLM
Jun: -0.2 (0.3)
Jul: +3.8 (1.0)
Aug: +3.1 (1.4)
PDX
Jun: +0.6 (1.5)
Jul: +4.2 (0.6)
Aug: +2.9 (0.3)
CQT
Jun: +1.5 (0.6)
Jul: +3.5 (2.0)
Aug: +2.7 (1.3)
DEN
Jun: +3.4 (1.6)
Jul: +1.5 (0.4)
Aug: +1.2 (1.3)
DCA
Jun: +0.5 (0.5)
Jul: -1.8 (2.7)
Aug: -0.4 (3.3)
Total error: 21.9
Average error: 1.22

 


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#353
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 September 2018 - 04:20 PM

Mr Marine Layer

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Here they are from first place to last place

 

Frontal Snowsquall
Total error: 21.9
Average error: 1.22
Jesse
Total error: 26.2
Average error: 1.46
ShawniganLake
Total error: 28.1
Average error: 1.56
BLI snowman
Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58
Scott
Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58
TT-SEA
Total error: 28.9
Average error: 1.61
Phil
Total error: 30.55
Average error: 1.70
Front Ranger
Total error: 32.1
Average error: 1.78
Mr Marine Layer
Total error: 37.9
Average error: 2.11
Deweydog
Total error: 44.9
Average error: 2.49


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#354
Eujunga

Posted 16 September 2018 - 05:29 PM

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Nicely done, MML.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#355
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 September 2018 - 05:41 PM

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Phil might have calculated differently if he subtracted "too cold" from "too hot", but I always use the absolute value of each difference, because 2 wrongs don't make a right.
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#356
Jesse

Posted 16 September 2018 - 05:47 PM

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Thank you for grading this!
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#357
Deweydog

Posted 16 September 2018 - 06:06 PM

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Phil might have calculated differently if he subtracted "too cold" from "too hot", but I always use the absolute value of each difference, because 2 wrongs don't make a right.


You must not be busy AF.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#358
Phil

Posted 16 September 2018 - 06:10 PM

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Thank you for doing this. I’ll buy you a drink if we ever run into eachother.
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#359
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 16 September 2018 - 06:54 PM

Frontal Snowsquall

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Here they are from first place to last place

Frontal Snowsquall
Total error: 21.9
Average error: 1.22
Jesse
Total error: 26.2
Average error: 1.46
ShawniganLake
Total error: 28.1
Average error: 1.56
BLI snowman
Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58
Scott
Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58
TT-SEA
Total error: 28.9
Average error: 1.61
Phil
Total error: 30.55
Average error: 1.70
Front Ranger
Total error: 32.1
Average error: 1.78
Mr Marine Layer
Total error: 37.9
Average error: 2.11
Deweydog
Total error: 44.9
Average error: 2.49


Mr. Marine Layer, thanks for calculating the results and showing how well we all did for each location!

Based on my results, my most accurate location was PDX and my least accurate was DCA. Which makes sense because I live in PDX and I'm not really familiar with DCA and the East Coast.

#360
Front Ranger

Posted 17 September 2018 - 05:57 AM

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DEN was the only station to pull of a negative departure.  B)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#361
ShawniganLake

Posted 17 September 2018 - 10:45 AM

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DEN was the only station to pull of a negative departure. B)

Take that, global warming!
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#362
Phil

Posted 17 September 2018 - 10:45 AM

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Mr. Marine Layer, thanks for calculating the results and showing how well we all did for each location!

Based on my results, my most accurate location was PDX and my least accurate was DCA. Which makes sense because I live in PDX and I'm not really familiar with DCA and the East Coast.


Likewise, DCA was the only station I did well at. I sucked everywhere else.

I still have a lot to learn about western climate..temp anomalies seem to work very differently out there compared to here, especially in the summer and autumn.

Those days in June with huge 500mb troughs that still produced positive departures @ SEA really surprised me.
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