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May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:46 PM

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The big question is...how dead will this group get over the summer? Last year I believe it was July that had the fewest posts. Also, going to take this moment to thank the folks here that are a helluva lot smarter than I will ever be when it comes to understanding both the overall global situation as well as our microclimates here. You make every single one of my days better, whether I'm having seizures or not.


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2
Phil

Posted 30 April 2018 - 10:55 PM

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I ran the numbers..since April 29th of 2013, Baffin Island in Northeast Canada has been under lower than average 500mb heights on ~ 81% of days (1,478 of 1,825 days).

Holy freaking crap. That’s insanity!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#3
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 April 2018 - 11:35 PM

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I ran the numbers..since April 29th of 2013, Baffin Island in Northeast Canada has been under lower than average 500mb heights on ~ 81% of days (1,478 of 1,825 days).

Holy freaking crap. That’s insanity!

 

So is that due to change soon? Or is it a new global trend that seemingly won't go away? Really hope it does because it feels like that vortex up there constantly screws up our chances to score arctic blasts.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4
MossMan

Posted 01 May 2018 - 07:39 AM

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It’s cloudy!

#5
Phil

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:03 AM

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So is that due to change soon? Or is it a new global trend that seemingly won't go away? Really hope it does because it feels like that vortex up there constantly screws up our chances to score arctic blasts.


Yes, it will change. It was absent for most of 2008-12, so it’s not semi-permanent.

And yes, that pattern hurts you guys bigly during the winter season.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#6
Geos

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:31 AM

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It’s cloudy!

 

Clouds breaking up here nicely. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#7
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:43 AM

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Happy New Month! May should start out warmer than average but then I see a big flip to below normal temperatures around mid month. Whether that will be enough to put the PNW below normal for the whole month remains to be seen. I'm still crunching the May numbers for the contest.

#8
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:08 AM

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After some clouds and light rain this morning here in Seattle, things have really cleared up. The recent rain has really cleaned out the air and it’s beautiful out.
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#9
Geos

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:29 AM

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Perfect spring forecast imo.

 

Attached File  perfectspringforecast.png   190.82KB   0 downloads

 

Still some clouds to erode away out there. 

 

vis.jpg


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#10
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:54 AM

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Happy New Month! May should start out warmer than average but then I see a big flip to below normal temperatures around mid month. Whether that will be enough to put the PNW below normal for the whole month remains to be seen. I'm still crunching the May numbers for the contest.

 

Brian's contest? 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#11
Geos

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:18 AM

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Few breaks out there, but largely cloudy still.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#12
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:38 AM

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New ECMWF weeklies released yesterday show a deep trough for about a week around mid-month but it returns to ridging after that for the rest of the month.  

 

Overall... its quite ridgy for the next 6 weeks.



#13
Phil

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:41 AM

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New ECMWF weeklies released yesterday show a deep trough for about a week around mid-month but it returns to ridging after that for the rest of the month.

Overall... its quite ridgy for the next 6 weeks.


The mean is ridgy after 5/20, but the majority of the ensemble members are actually troughy at that point. It’s just that there are some very high amplitude ridgy members skewing the mean that way.

In other words ridgy mean, troughy median.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#14
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:45 AM

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The mean is ridgy after 5/20, but the majority of the ensemble members are actually troughy at that point. It’s just that there are some very high amplitude ridgy members skewing the mean that way.

In other words ridgy mean, troughy median.

 

My bet is on a deep mid-month trough and then pleasant but not hot weather after that... going into June as well.  


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#15
Phil

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:52 AM

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My bet is on a deep mid-month trough and then pleasant but not hot weather after that... going into June as well.


Brief ULL train in mid-May under anticyclonic wavebreaking, return to ridging thereafter, then a period of longwave troughing in June under EHEM/monsoonal forcing.

Take it to the bank. 🤓
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#16
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:57 AM

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Brief ULL train in mid-May under anticyclonic wavebreaking, return to ridging thereafter, then a period of longwave troughing in June under EHEM/monsoonal forcing.

Take it to the bank. 🤓


Sounds about right.

#17
Phil

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:57 AM

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I’m gonna miss winter. The sound of the AC running is depressing. And knowing it will stay running until October is depressing as f**k.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#18
Geos

Posted 01 May 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Slowly but surely getting more sun breaks out there.

 

vis.jpg


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#19
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 May 2018 - 01:22 PM

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Brian's contest?


No, Phil's Summer forecast contest.

http://theweatherfor...est-year-three/

#20
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 May 2018 - 02:38 PM

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That three day heat wave in April really ruined the entire months negative departure for Seattle. Without it the month would have been a couple degrees below normal. Instead it was 1deg above normal overall and right at normal for the average high. Almost all of the days in April had below normal highs.

#21
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:02 PM

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That three day heat wave in April really ruined the entire months negative departure for Seattle. Without it the month would have been a couple degrees below normal. Instead it was 1deg above normal overall and right at normal for the average high. Almost all of the days in April had below normal highs.


This is incorrect. Over half the days in April were at or above normal at SEA.

#22
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:14 PM

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This is incorrect. Over half the days in April were at or above normal at SEA.


Great month!

#23
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:15 PM

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Great month!

 

Not so much.   Far too wet.  



#24
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:19 PM

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Our little lilac started blooming while we were gone... 

 

20180501_142626.jpg



#25
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:30 PM

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Not so much. Far too wet.


Awful month!
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#26
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:42 PM

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Definitely seeing some progress toward a more interesting pattern on the 18z ensembles.

#27
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:56 PM

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Definitely seeing some progress toward a more interesting pattern on the 18z ensembles.


Yeah... we really need stormy, rainy weather. The low 70s coming up will be a nightmare. Hopefully we can get past it quickly! :)
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#28
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:03 PM

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Man...

#29
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:11 PM

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People who live in the PNW and have an option to move somewhere else and don't are likely to have reverse SAD.

#30
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:13 PM

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Man...

Always wishing away our nice weather and wanting to get to stormy weather as soon as possible.

 

Even in May.

Man...   :rolleyes:



#31
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:15 PM

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People who live in the PNW and have an option to move somewhere else and don't are likely to have reverse SAD.


That is quite the claim, Doctor.

#32
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:20 PM

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Always wishing away our nice weather and wanting to get to stormy weather as soon as possible.

Even in May.

Man... :rolleyes:


Some convection or late season mountain snowfall would be fun at some point. I hope I am not arrested for having the wrong opinion.  :unsure:


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#33
Phil

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:32 PM

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Yeah... we really need stormy, rainy weather. The low 70s coming up will be a nightmare. Hopefully we can get past it quickly! :)


Wanna switch houses for the next 5 months?

Clouds of mosquitoes and a UV index of 12 today. Your definition of heaven!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#34
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:35 PM

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This is incorrect. Over half the days in April were at or above normal at SEA.

Are you talking highs or overall temp?

#35
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:36 PM

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Are you talking highs or overall temp?

 

Departure from normal each day.   Over half the days were above normal at SEA in April.  



#36
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:38 PM

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Are you talking highs or overall temp?


Yeah, from what I can tell you were just talking about highs.

#37
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:41 PM

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Yeah, from what I can tell you were just talking about highs.

. Correct. The warm lows have ruined SEA overall temps to the point I feel you can’t even compare to past overall temps anymore. I wonder how Olympia or Seattle WFO did last month.
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#38
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:45 PM

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. Correct. The warm lows have ruined SEA overall temps to the point I feel you can’t even compare to past overall temps anymore. I wonder how Olympia or Seattle WFO did last month.

 

Lots and lots of rain.   

 

3rd wettest April ever.    ;)



#39
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:48 PM

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Lots and lots of rain.

3rd wettest April ever. ;)

. True the rain did really help keep the high temps down.

#40
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:50 PM

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. True the rain did really help keep the high temps down.

 

And the lows up.  

 

I am sure other stations in the area were similar with warm lows thanks to so many nights with clouds and often with rain.  



#41
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:01 PM

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And the lows up.

I am sure other stations in the area were similar with warm lows thanks to so many nights with clouds and often with rain.

I am a little disappointed we didn’t get as many accolades as we could have last month.

#42
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:02 PM

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And the lows up.

I am sure other stations in the area were similar with warm lows thanks to so many nights with clouds and often with rain.


Bellingham and Seattle WFO had average lows 1-2 degrees cooler than SEA.

Olympia had an average low of 39.

The same situation was true down here with all surrounding stations having average lows 2-4 degrees cooler than PDX’s. Might as well just make peace with the fact that lows at PDX and SEA are basically bad data these days. Or at least not historically representative thanks to extensive land use changes.
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#43
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:15 PM

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Bellingham and Seattle WFO had average lows 1-2 degrees cooler than SEA.

Olympia had an average low of 39.

The same situation was true down here with all surrounding stations having average lows 2-4 degrees cooler than PDX’s. Might as well just make peace with the fact that lows at PDX and SEA are basically bad data these days. Or at least not historically representative thanks to extensive land use changes.

 

Overall departures...

 

SEA +1.0

 

WFO SEA +0.1

 

OLM +0.4

 

BLI  +0.9

 

HQM  +1.6

 

UIL  +0.8

 

 

I think you overstating the case a little bit.

 

The average of the other stations combined is +0.8 and SEA was +1.0

 

That looks fairly representative to me.



#44
Front Ranger

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:18 PM

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Lots and lots of rain.   

 

3rd wettest April ever.    ;)

 

And yet, looking closer one finds that the vast majority of the rain fell on just 12 days last month. 

 

5.69" for the month...but those 18 other days only had .10" total precip.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#45
Front Ranger

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:20 PM

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Leave it to Tim to go on about the rain on an evening like this...  :lol:

 

Attached File  Screenshot_1.png   330KB   0 downloads


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#46
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:22 PM

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Leave it to Tim to go on about the rain on an evening like this...  :lol:

 

attachicon.gifScreenshot_1.png

 

Seriously?   We were talking about the temperature departures... and the rain definitely affected the highs and the lows.

 

Clearing has been very slow today... the I-5 corridor is mostly clear now.

 

sat_5_1.png



#47
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:31 PM

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Leave it to Tim to go on about the rain on an evening like this... :lol:

Screenshot_1.png


Ahh, I see what you did there, wait until that cam shows sunny weather to post it, just like Tim does... well played sir!!
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#48
Phil

Posted 01 May 2018 - 06:02 PM

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Leave it to Tim to go on about the rain on an evening like this... :lol:

Screenshot_1.png


Wow. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#49
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2018 - 06:19 PM

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Overall departures...

SEA +1.0

WFO SEA +0.1

OLM +0.4

BLI +0.9

HQM +1.6

UIL +0.8


I think you overstating the case a little bit.

The average of the other stations combined is +0.8 and SEA was +1.0

That looks fairly representative to me.


I was being a little hyperbolic.

Departure from average lows would probably be more representative of my point, though.

#50
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2018 - 06:25 PM

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I was being a little hyperbolic.

Departure from average lows would probably be more representative of my point, though.


So then highs must have gone the other way? With SEA being colder compared to their normal... because the overall departure was right on par with the other stations in the region.