TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 The big question is...how dead will this group get over the summer? Last year I believe it was July that had the fewest posts. Also, going to take this moment to thank the folks here that are a helluva lot smarter than I will ever be when it comes to understanding both the overall global situation as well as our microclimates here. You make every single one of my days better, whether I'm having seizures or not. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I ran the numbers..since April 29th of 2013, Baffin Island in Northeast Canada has been under lower than average 500mb heights on ~ 81% of days (1,478 of 1,825 days). Holy freaking crap. That’s insanity! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I ran the numbers..since April 29th of 2013, Baffin Island in Northeast Canada has been under lower than average 500mb heights on ~ 81% of days (1,478 of 1,825 days). Holy freaking crap. That’s insanity! So is that due to change soon? Or is it a new global trend that seemingly won't go away? Really hope it does because it feels like that vortex up there constantly screws up our chances to score arctic blasts. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 It’s cloudy! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 So is that due to change soon? Or is it a new global trend that seemingly won't go away? Really hope it does because it feels like that vortex up there constantly screws up our chances to score arctic blasts.Yes, it will change. It was absent for most of 2008-12, so it’s not semi-permanent. And yes, that pattern hurts you guys bigly during the winter season. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 It’s cloudy! Clouds breaking up here nicely. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Happy New Month! May should start out warmer than average but then I see a big flip to below normal temperatures around mid month. Whether that will be enough to put the PNW below normal for the whole month remains to be seen. I'm still crunching the May numbers for the contest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 After some clouds and light rain this morning here in Seattle, things have really cleared up. The recent rain has really cleaned out the air and it’s beautiful out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Perfect spring forecast imo. Still some clouds to erode away out there. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Happy New Month! May should start out warmer than average but then I see a big flip to below normal temperatures around mid month. Whether that will be enough to put the PNW below normal for the whole month remains to be seen. I'm still crunching the May numbers for the contest. Brian's contest? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Few breaks out there, but largely cloudy still. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 New ECMWF weeklies released yesterday show a deep trough for about a week around mid-month but it returns to ridging after that for the rest of the month. Overall... its quite ridgy for the next 6 weeks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 New ECMWF weeklies released yesterday show a deep trough for about a week around mid-month but it returns to ridging after that for the rest of the month. Overall... its quite ridgy for the next 6 weeks.The mean is ridgy after 5/20, but the majority of the ensemble members are actually troughy at that point. It’s just that there are some very high amplitude ridgy members skewing the mean that way. In other words ridgy mean, troughy median. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 The mean is ridgy after 5/20, but the majority of the ensemble members are actually troughy at that point. It’s just that there are some very high amplitude ridgy members skewing the mean that way. In other words ridgy mean, troughy median. My bet is on a deep mid-month trough and then pleasant but not hot weather after that... going into June as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I’m gonna miss winter. The sound of the AC running is depressing. And knowing it will stay running until October is depressing as f**k. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Slowly but surely getting more sun breaks out there. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Brian's contest?No, Phil's Summer forecast contest. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1792-summer-forecast-contest-year-three/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 That three day heat wave in April really ruined the entire months negative departure for Seattle. Without it the month would have been a couple degrees below normal. Instead it was 1deg above normal overall and right at normal for the average high. Almost all of the days in April had below normal highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 That three day heat wave in April really ruined the entire months negative departure for Seattle. Without it the month would have been a couple degrees below normal. Instead it was 1deg above normal overall and right at normal for the average high. Almost all of the days in April had below normal highs.This is incorrect. Over half the days in April were at or above normal at SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 This is incorrect. Over half the days in April were at or above normal at SEA.Great month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Great month! Not so much. Far too wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Our little lilac started blooming while we were gone... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Not so much. Far too wet.Awful month! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Definitely seeing some progress toward a more interesting pattern on the 18z ensembles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Definitely seeing some progress toward a more interesting pattern on the 18z ensembles.Yeah... we really need stormy, rainy weather. The low 70s coming up will be a nightmare. Hopefully we can get past it quickly! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Man... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 People who live in the PNW and have an option to move somewhere else and don't are likely to have reverse SAD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Man...Always wishing away our nice weather and wanting to get to stormy weather as soon as possible. Even in May. Man... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 People who live in the PNW and have an option to move somewhere else and don't are likely to have reverse SAD.That is quite the claim, Doctor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Always wishing away our nice weather and wanting to get to stormy weather as soon as possible. Even in May. Man... Some convection or late season mountain snowfall would be fun at some point. I hope I am not arrested for having the wrong opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Yeah... we really need stormy, rainy weather. The low 70s coming up will be a nightmare. Hopefully we can get past it quickly! Wanna switch houses for the next 5 months? Clouds of mosquitoes and a UV index of 12 today. Your definition of heaven! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 This is incorrect. Over half the days in April were at or above normal at SEA. Are you talking highs or overall temp? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Are you talking highs or overall temp? Departure from normal each day. Over half the days were above normal at SEA in April. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Are you talking highs or overall temp?Yeah, from what I can tell you were just talking about highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Yeah, from what I can tell you were just talking about highs.. Correct. The warm lows have ruined SEA overall temps to the point I feel you can’t even compare to past overall temps anymore. I wonder how Olympia or Seattle WFO did last month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 . Correct. The warm lows have ruined SEA overall temps to the point I feel you can’t even compare to past overall temps anymore. I wonder how Olympia or Seattle WFO did last month. Lots and lots of rain. 3rd wettest April ever. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Lots and lots of rain. 3rd wettest April ever. . True the rain did really help keep the high temps down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 . True the rain did really help keep the high temps down. And the lows up. I am sure other stations in the area were similar with warm lows thanks to so many nights with clouds and often with rain. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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