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May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#101
Phil

Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:37 AM

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The pattern on the d10-15 EPS is unlike anything observed (in May) during the satellite era. At least spatially speaking. So, I’m curious to see if it actually works out this way.

Or, maybe I’m just trying to convince myself that deep eastern troughing will come back, when in reality I’m screwed.

D9zrhKZ.png

WVAhsHC.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#102
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:46 AM

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The trolling has been anomalously high from both sides this spring.


How many years have you had an account here?

The complaining about the rain has far outpaced even the fake complaining about sunshine, but that is pretty normal.

#103
Phil

Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:48 AM

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The NATL has been experiencing a seemingly endless train of anticyclonic wavebreaks since January. It’s lead to much stronger than average trade winds and SST cooling in the tropical portion of the basin, and has aided in keeping the ITCZ/Hadley Cell contracted equatorward there (and more recently in the IO too...aided by the long period MJO genesis event starting there). The Pacific has been making up for the difference, though, with the poleward shifted ITCZ and expanded Hadley Cell present across the NPAC. The ongoing warm pool discharge and QBO flip may shake that up during the summer, though.

That said, this IO/NATL regime doesn’t look to stop anytime in the near future. I don’t know what to make of it just yet, however if it continues into the summer/fall, it would be a massive change from the +AMO era, which started in the mid-1990s.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#104
Phil

Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:54 AM

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So, the best analogs for this regime are mostly in the 1980s, but solar forcing and thermal inertia was going the other way then..a large (positive) heat budget imbalance was developing back then through thermo-mechanical conduits that have been spatially exhausted now. So..not an easy job to make a seasonal forecast this year.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#105
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:18 AM

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Truly gorgeous out.
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#106
Farmboy

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:24 AM

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Nightmare day in progress here.

Total sunshine and warming up. It's not cold and wet and dark outside. Why???


Such a drag, if you have a basement you can always go hide there until nightfall...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#107
BLI snowman

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:26 AM

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The trolling has been anomalously high from both sides this spring.

 

Especially given the rather unremarkable weather as of late.



#108
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:50 AM

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Such a drag, if you have a basement you can always go hide there until nightfall...


If you’re not careful you’re going to find yourself in the running for the “Best New Frequent Poster of 2018” award. ;)

#109
Phil

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:51 AM

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My best guess is still that mid-May will end up being an episode of enhanced middle-latitude ULLs under poleward anticyclonic wavebreaking, rather than longwave western troughing/eastern ridging. IMO, there’s too much +AAM above 50N for coherent western troughing right now.

If I’m correct, there should be yet another episode of western ridging and a vortex over the Hudson Bay afterwards, until more significant changes show up during the final few days of the month and/or during early June, when EHEM forcing/monsoonal initiation and the completion of this AAM cycle should produce a more classical western trough/-PNA cell. How long that lasts depends on the amplitude of the MJO event and whether easterly shear has downwelled sufficiently to produce counter-forcing/z-cell retraction over the Pacific (very debatable). There’s a chance it could be quite a powerful trough. Or it could be run-of-the-mill and pass over a few weeks.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#110
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:52 AM

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Disaster averted! That was a close one! Are you part vampire or something?

 

Everyone here is either a vampire or sacrifices their first born to the sun.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#111
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:56 AM

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Especially given the rather unremarkable weather as of late.

 

THIRD WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD!!!


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#112
Geos

Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:57 AM

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Today is really a beautiful day. Dipped to 41 this morning but already up to 62.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.41", 08/04

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#113
Geos

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:00 AM

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THIRD WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD!!!

 

Yep - 6.90" of rain at my place for April.

 

5.69" for Sea Tac


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.41", 08/04

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#114
Farmboy

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:08 AM

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Everyone here is either a vampire or sacrifices their first born to the sun.


Preferences for some, others are born that way, I guess...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#115
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:09 AM

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Yep - 6.90" of rain at my place for April.

 

It was definitely a wet month, no doubt. Mainly focused on about 10 days the first half of the month.

 

But the majority of April had very April-like weather. 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#116
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:12 AM

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Preferences for some, others are born that way, I guess...


It’s Maybelline.

#117
Geos

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:12 AM

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It was definitely a wet month, no doubt. Mainly focused on about 10 days the first half of the month.

 

But the majority of April had very April-like weather. 

 

True.

First 10 days definitely wetter and last Saturday was quite wet - which was focused in and around Snohomish County.

 

Hopefully there will be rains spaced out this month and that we don't turn off the tap completely like we did last year as summer approached.


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.41", 08/04

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#118
Farmboy

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:35 AM

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It’s Maybelline.


Maybe...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#119
MossMan

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:36 AM

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Calgon take me away!

#120
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:57 AM

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I ended up just under 10” for April. Wettest in the 7 years I’ve been here.

Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#121
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:06 AM

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12Z ECMWF sure takes away any deep trough for later next week... much like its 00Z run.  

 

The entire evolution on that run looks similar to what just happened last week with a ULL skirting by to the south.  



#122
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:08 AM

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12Z ECMWF sure takes away any deep trough for later next week... much like its 00Z run.

The entire evolution on that run looks similar to what just happened last week with a ULL skirting by to the south.


Gross.

#123
Farmboy

Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:25 AM

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Gross.


You really should check out Dutch Harbor, AK...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#124
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:27 AM

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I ended up just under 10” for April. Wettest in the 7 years I’ve been here.

 

What did you have last year? I see Silver Creek Falls had just under 10".

 

Man, the mid 1990s had some wet Aprils in your area. Silver Creek Falls had 11"+ four out of five years from 1992-1996, with a peak of 14"(missing data) in 1996.

 

SLE was wetter than this April in both 1993 and 1996. Both those years went on to have wet Mays...but 1992 went on to be the driest May on record with just .05", and 1995 was pretty dry as well.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#125
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:34 AM

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What did you have last year? I see Silver Creek Falls had just under 10".

 

Man, the mid 1990s had some wet Aprils in your area. Silver Creek Falls had 11"+ four out of five years from 1992-1996, with a peak of 14"(missing data) in 1996.

 

SLE was wetter than this April in both 1993 and 1996. Both those years went on to have wet Mays...but 1992 went on to be the driest May on record with just .05", and 1995 was pretty dry as well.

 

Yeah... numerous years in the top 10 wettest Aprils at SEA were from the 1990s.  



#126
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:36 AM

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Gross.

 

 

I agree... I was told that it was pretty gross here from Friday - Monday.     And yesterday was gross until early afternoon.

 

Luckily the 12Z ECMWF shows the ULL moving by to the south faster this time... maybe its passes in 2-3 days instead of almost 5!  



#127
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:07 PM

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I agree... I was told that it was pretty gross here from Friday - Monday. And yesterday was gross until early afternoon.

Luckily the 12Z ECMWF shows the ULL moving by to the south faster this time... maybe its passes in 2-3 days instead of almost 5!


Probably does have the potential to be murkier than an open wave trough.

#128
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:16 PM

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Probably does have the potential to be murkier than an open wave trough.

 

Indeed.   

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows a gloomy, rainy deformation band scenario for next Thursday on the north side of the ULL.  



#129
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:18 PM

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Indeed.   

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows a gloomy, rainy deformation band scenario for next Thursday on the north side of the ULL.  

 

And then sunny again for the weekend. Good times for all.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#130
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:19 PM

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And then sunny again for the weekend. Good times for all.

 

It would be favorable timing for sure.  



#131
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:22 PM

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It would be favorable timing for sure.


I think everybody would probably enjoy a pattern that featured cooler temps and rain at times during parts of the work week and sunny 70s on the weekend. Without me having to relocate to Dutch Harbor or you to Sky Harbor. ;)

#132
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:23 PM

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EPS keeps a deep trough over the west from day 7 onward, though...

#133
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:41 PM

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Up to 64 at SEA and PDX with dewpoints in the mid 40s... just a couple weeks ago this was called horrific heat and soupy humidity.   Absolutely unbearable and disgusting.   We had people on here reporting that they were dripping in sweat with these same conditions.     :lol:



#134
MossMan

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:49 PM

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Mushrooms are gross.

#135
Farmboy

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:50 PM

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EPS keeps a deep trough over the west from day 7 onward, though...


Yay!!!
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Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#136
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:53 PM

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This place is fun with three Tims
(well maybe 3 and 7/8ths Tims if you count Dewey).

#137
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2018 - 01:09 PM

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This place is fun with three Tims
(well maybe 3 and 7/8ths Tims if you count Dewey).

 

Tim will just say the (moral) majority is now better represented.  ;)


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#138
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 May 2018 - 01:36 PM

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Pulled up the rest of the weeds this morning/afternoon. Gorgeous day. I literally have nowhere else to put them as my yard debris bucket is overflowing.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#139
MossMan

Posted 02 May 2018 - 01:50 PM

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Pulled up the rest of the weeds this morning/afternoon. Gorgeous day. I literally have nowhere else to put them as my yard debris bucket is overflowing.

Some weeds are edible!

#140
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 02:32 PM

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Sunday/Monday could potentially be a decent convective set up, especially over the Oregon Cascades.



#141
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:15 PM

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Only 65 at SEA.

70 in North Bend and 69 here. Being away from the water is the difference again today.

#142
Deweydog

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:09 PM

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Sunday/Monday could potentially be a decent convective set up, especially over the Oregon Cascades.


Interesting.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#143
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:17 PM

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Interesting.

 

Sorry, maybe only 3/8ths.

 

Now will you stop making fun of my overuse of that word? I will try to work on seeing the world as more humdrum boring like you do. ;)



#144
Deweydog

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:19 PM

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Sorry, maybe only 3/8ths.

Now will you stop making fun of my overuse of that word? I will try to work on seeing the world as more humdrum boring like you do. ;)


Someone's in a sunny mood!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#145
Jesse

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:23 PM

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Someone's in a sunny mood!

 

For sure! :)

 

We are taking a trip down south to the McKenzie River area this weekend. It would be cool to see some thunderstorms.



#146
El Nina

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:32 PM

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EPS keeps a deep trough over the west from day 7 onward, though...

It would be nice to get a decent trough this time of year. It would help with keeping rivers and streams flowing nicely throughout the summer.

#147
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:43 PM

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It would be nice to get a decent trough this time of year. It would help with keeping rivers and streams flowing nicely throughout the summer.

 

Not to mention the wetter ground so we hopefully won't have ashfall days like last summer.


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#148
Deweydog

Posted 02 May 2018 - 05:28 PM

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For sure! :)

We are taking a trip down south to the McKenzie River area this weekend. It would be cool to see some thunderstorms.


Going with "cool."

Interesting...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#149
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:11 PM

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SEA was only at 65 at 4 p.m. but ended up with a high of 70.   



#150
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:11 PM

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Some weeds are edible!


My own special strain.
  • MossMan and Jesse like this

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope