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May Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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That’s a terrifying pattern. Please no.

 

You won't need a sauna?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Still on East Coast time... woke up at 4 a.m. for the day.   

 

Daylight arrives by 5 a.m. now when the sky is clear... and the birds are already singing loudly.   

 

00Z ECMWF was interesting... the crash is short-lived on days 7 and 8 and then its back to ridging by days 9 and 10.   The EPS does not agree though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A chilly 34 degree morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Disaster averted! That was a close one! Are you part vampire or something?

 

You really have to wonder about a few people on here.   :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some low clouds here in Salem this morning. What a pleasant surprise!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Nightmare day in progress here.

 

Total sunshine and warming up. It's not cold and wet and dark outside. Why???

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The pattern on the d10-15 EPS is unlike anything observed (in May) during the satellite era. At least spatially speaking. So, I’m curious to see if it actually works out this way.

 

Or, maybe I’m just trying to convince myself that deep eastern troughing will come back, when in reality I’m screwed.

 

D9zrhKZ.png

 

WVAhsHC.png

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The trolling has been anomalously high from both sides this spring.

How many years have you had an account here?

 

The complaining about the rain has far outpaced even the fake complaining about sunshine, but that is pretty normal.

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The NATL has been experiencing a seemingly endless train of anticyclonic wavebreaks since January. It’s lead to much stronger than average trade winds and SST cooling in the tropical portion of the basin, and has aided in keeping the ITCZ/Hadley Cell contracted equatorward there (and more recently in the IO too...aided by the long period MJO genesis event starting there). The Pacific has been making up for the difference, though, with the poleward shifted ITCZ and expanded Hadley Cell present across the NPAC. The ongoing warm pool discharge and QBO flip may shake that up during the summer, though.

 

That said, this IO/NATL regime doesn’t look to stop anytime in the near future. I don’t know what to make of it just yet, however if it continues into the summer/fall, it would be a massive change from the +AMO era, which started in the mid-1990s.

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So, the best analogs for this regime are mostly in the 1980s, but solar forcing and thermal inertia was going the other way then..a large (positive) heat budget imbalance was developing back then through thermo-mechanical conduits that have been spatially exhausted now. So..not an easy job to make a seasonal forecast this year.

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Nightmare day in progress here.

 

Total sunshine and warming up. It's not cold and wet and dark outside. Why???

Such a drag, if you have a basement you can always go hide there until nightfall...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Such a drag, if you have a basement you can always go hide there until nightfall...

If you’re not careful you’re going to find yourself in the running for the “Best New Frequent Poster of 2018” award. ;)

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My best guess is still that mid-May will end up being an episode of enhanced middle-latitude ULLs under poleward anticyclonic wavebreaking, rather than longwave western troughing/eastern ridging. IMO, there’s too much +AAM above 50N for coherent western troughing right now.

 

If I’m correct, there should be yet another episode of western ridging and a vortex over the Hudson Bay afterwards, until more significant changes show up during the final few days of the month and/or during early June, when EHEM forcing/monsoonal initiation and the completion of this AAM cycle should produce a more classical western trough/-PNA cell. How long that lasts depends on the amplitude of the MJO event and whether easterly shear has downwelled sufficiently to produce counter-forcing/z-cell retraction over the Pacific (very debatable). There’s a chance it could be quite a powerful trough. Or it could be run-of-the-mill and pass over a few weeks.

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Today is really a beautiful day. Dipped to 41 this morning but already up to 62.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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THIRD WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD!!!

 

Yep - 6.90" of rain at my place for April.

 

5.69" for Sea Tac

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It was definitely a wet month, no doubt. Mainly focused on about 10 days the first half of the month.

 

But the majority of April had very April-like weather. 

 

True.

First 10 days definitely wetter and last Saturday was quite wet - which was focused in and around Snohomish County.

 

Hopefully there will be rains spaced out this month and that we don't turn off the tap completely like we did last year as summer approached.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I ended up just under 10” for April. Wettest in the 7 years I’ve been here.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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