May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

Enjoy what you can get all. At least you didn't have to train in this today!

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/2pyqfly.jpg

[Jesse]

Looking forward to seeing if the EPS agrees with the operational. I’m hoping it pours down rain over all of Memorial Day weeeknd. Every day.

Looks like it does.

[Jesse]

Switchbacks are a pain, especially if there's nothing interesting to look at.

So, was the reward at the end of Constance worth it?

Yeah it’s pretty amazing. The sheer walls of Mount Constance rising out of the lake are gorgeous even in heavy drizzle.

[Phil]

Meant to follow up on this last night. This view seems fairly east coast centric. We aren’t talking about big elms and chestnuts that line old neighborhood streets dying. We are talking about millions of acres of pine forest killed by native pine beetles, due in part to changes in year to year climate. I realize a lot of deciduous trees back there have fallen victim to non-native pathogens, but I would guess the numbers of actual trees killed lags the big pine beetle outbreaks.

 

I think it is hard for east coasters to imagine the vast tracts of land we have out here sometimes. You guys are almost more like Europe back there, at least in the way that population is distributed.

Chestnuts never lined streets here. All of these great native trees (Elm, Chestnut, and now Ash) that dominated the forests were/are being killed off by invasive, human-introduced insects and/or fungal pathogens from overseas. And we’re talking billions of trees killed, and that number is only going up.

 

You will never find a case where one degree of middle latitude climate warming (or cooling) wipes out entire tree species that have been native to a region across multiple 15,000yr episodes of interglacial warmth. Perhaps you’re seeing an accelerated recovery from LIA-induced vegetation changes (it was the coldest period in 10,000yrs out there), but your climate is not unusually warm today by Holocene standards. It’s actually right smack dab in the middle of the median.

[TT-SEA]

Looking forward to seeing if the EPS agrees with the operational. I’m hoping it pours down rain over all of Memorial Day weeeknd. Every day.

 

Liking your own posts and talking to yourself now?  

 

I guess then that I hope we have the hottest summer ever recorded.    And the Portland area is miserable every day.    I hope nature makes you pay dearly for a wet Memorial Day weekend!   

[Jesse]

Liking your own posts and talking to yourself now?  

 

I guess then that I hope we have the hottest summer ever recorded.    And the Portland area is miserable every day.    I hope nature makes you pay dearly for a wet Memorial Day weekend!   

 

It seems like you and Farmboy, et al are already are hoping for that. So might as well return the favor.

 

A washout Memorial Day weekend does sound nice, though. No skin off my nose since I will find a way to enjoy it outside regardless. I am fortunately not allergic to a little water!

[TT-SEA]

It seems like you and Farmboy, et al are already are hoping for that. So might as well return the favor.

 

A washout Memorial Day weekend does sound nice, though. No skin off my nose since I will find a way to enjoy it outside regardless.

 

I was not hoping for the hottest summer ever.   Not even close.  

 

Side note ... the new ECMWF look quite nice through the end of June overall.   

[Jesse]

I was not hoping for the hottest summer ever.   Not even close.  

 

Side note ... the new ECMWF look quite nice through the end of June overall.   

 

Probably going with persistence....or not, and it stays warm overall despite a couple ULLs.

 

If that is the case we better hope we can make the most out of this Memorial Day rain event.

[Phil]

Few people realize that the eastern third of the county has more than double the forest acreage of the entire western half of the country. There are 250% more trees across the eastern 40% of the country than there are across the western 60% of the country. Before settlers arrived, the entire eastern third of the country was blanketed by forests. It’s what this area would revert back to if humans left.

 

There are fewer old-growth forests here vs the west, but that will change in just 75-150yrs, if current trends continue.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely dumping rain here now... just pounding down. Glad I finished mowing!

[TT-SEA]

Huge crackling thunder now.

[Jesse]

Huge crackling thunder now.

Sounds fun and dynamic. I am jealous.

[Phil]

Almost all model guidance is catching onto the pattern reversal across the high latitudes now. Looks one week slower than I had envisioned, but it might move up in time somewhat.

[Jesse]

Almost all model guidance is catching onto the pattern reversal across the high latitudes now. Looks one week slower than I had envisioned, but it might move up in time somewhat.

 

GOOD NEWS!

[TT-SEA]

Just dumping rain... Wish someone else would take this stuff.

[Phil]

GOOD NEWS!

Yeah, if you want higher chances for western troughing and retrograding NPAC anticyclones, it’s good news.

 

Still doesn’t get going for at least 10 days, but guidance is finally consistent in building anticyclones poleward enough to induce the necessary wavebreaking for a negative NAM.

 

Looks almost locked in now.

[Jesse]

Just dumping rain... Wish someone else would take this stuff.

 

You live in a rainy microclimate. And you chose to live there with your own free will.

 

Maybe there is some sort of tattoo you can get or something, to remind you.

[TT-SEA]

You live in a rainy microclimate. And you chose to live there with your own free will.

 

Maybe there is some sort of tattoo you can get or something, to remind you.

I wonder why I cheer for sun with no guilt whatsoever????

 

Hmmmmmmmmm.

[Jesse]

I wonder why I cheer for sun with no guilt whatsoever????

 

Hmmmmmmmmm.

 

Well it sure seems to bother you an awful lot when a member who lives in a dry microclimate (VancouverIslandSouth) cheers for rain all the time...

[TT-SEA]

Well it sure seems to bother you an awful lot when a member who lives in a dry microclimate (VancouverIslandSouth) cheers for rain all the time...

No... I get that.

 

Just not the drought trolling.

[Deweydog]

Spazurday!

 

Yes, Phil. Above the fray.

[Jesse]

Spazurday!

 

Yes, Phil. Above the fray.

 

If you were truly above the fray you wouldn't post here.

[jcmcgaffey]

Move to Seattle. As is often the case, they've seen way more sun over the past few days. Today looks pretty decent there as well.

. Eh it’s been pretty cloudy today and the last few days still waiting for the clouds to clear up here. Looking at the needle cam pretty clear north and south of seattle though. Almost a small convergence that has been sitting over the city today.

[Farmboy]

Yeah it’s pretty amazing. The sheer walls of Mount Constance rising out of the lake are gorgeous even in heavy drizzle.

How do you see through said heavy drizzle without the aid of x-ray vision?

[TT-SEA]

If you were truly above the fray you wouldn't post here.

 

He is king of the nerds!  

[Timmy Supercell]

At risk of sounding like a broken record.. t'storms developing today again!

 

Chances will continue into late next week.

[Jesse]

At risk of sounding like a broken record.. t'storms developing today again!

 

Chances will continue into late next week.

 

There is potential for a good thunderstorm pattern region wide later next week as that ULL gets closer.

[Deweydog]

If you were truly above the fray you wouldn't post here.

No !

[Farmboy]

Your trolling is approaching the levels of VancouverIslandSouth last year...

That's just the truth, it's been wall to wall clouds. Today is pretty nice, though.

[Farmboy]

Solid wall of convective clouds along the Cascades, but pretty nice in the Puget sound basin, I see big convective clouds over the Olympics, too.

[jcmcgaffey]

Starting to clear out here now too.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just dumping rain... Wish someone else would take this stuff.

 

Looks like the heaviest stuff is just north of there, unfortunately it's sticking to the mountains today.

[Timmy Supercell]

Heard one faint noise out of this cell. Not technically a full on t'storm by typical standards but the sound will qualify as having a vicinity storm. I apologize for the power lines. I realize this is not Facebook. Next time I promise better photography. :v

 

[Jesse]

Solid wall of convective clouds along the Cascades, but pretty nice in the Puget sound basin, I see big convective clouds over the Olympics, too.

 

It doesn't burn your eyes to look at those?

[The Swamp]

Yeah, if you want higher chances for western troughing and retrograding NPAC anticyclones, it’s good news.

 

Still doesn’t get going for at least 10 days, but guidance is finally consistent in building anticyclones poleward enough to induce the necessary wavebreaking for a negative NAM.

 

Looks almost locked in now.

Locked in? Oh Christ. Another SnowWizard.

[Farmboy]

It doesn't burn your eyes to look at those?

Eye drops.

[Front Ranger]

Its bad even for a big city in terms of traffic and the homeless problem.

I have lived there and visited many times, you know.

[Jesse]

18z GFS is creeping toward the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

More heavy rain organizing to my south. Here we go again.

[TT-SEA]

18z GFS is creeping toward the Euro.

Still get Saturday and Sunday on the 18Z run.

 

And then the system just disappears to the northeast quickly.